#ChoiceBroking #CurrencyHighlights

1. Currency Highlights
23rd
Nov’2016
HighLights:
Over the past five weeks, this column has urged hedging of foreign
currency exposures. The arguments were simple. Notwithstanding
positive flows, the world looks uncertain, the rupee is overvalued in
real effective exchange rate (Reer) terms, and there is an overhang of
unhedged exposures in India. Given the events of the past two weeks,
and despite the 2.3% move up in USDINR since, this recommendation
stands.
The dollar traded within sight of a 13 1/2-year peak on Wednesday,
bolstered by strong U.S. housing data that further cemented expecta-
tions for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December and more tightening
next year.
The dollar resumed its uptrend on Tuesday, helped by a surge in U.S.
existing home sales last month that further cemented expectations
not only of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December, but also
of further tightening next year.
Data on Tuesday showed U.S. home resales rose two percent in October to an annual rate of 5.6 million units, the highest level
in more than 9-1/2 years. That pushed the dollar to session highs versus the yen and drove a turnaround in the dollar index.
A better-than-expected set of public sector borrowing numbers may give UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond a
touch more wiggle room at tomorrow’s Autumn Statement (AS). Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks
(PSNB ex) was £4.3 billion in October, below the £6.4 billion in October 2015 and the consensus, £6.0 billion, according to data
from the Office for National Statistics.
While October’s figures show that the UK economy is still holding up well, despite Brexit worries, PSNB ex is expected to over-
shoot its March Budget target of £55.5 billion by around £12-13 billion in the 2016/17 financial year. In addition, the country’s
finances will also be impacted by higher inflation costs and reduced tax receipts as UK economic growth cools. The recent rise
in Gilt yields will also have a negative impact on the UK’s balance sheet, with higher yields resulting in higher interest pay-
ments.
Speaking at the Confederation of British Industry Monday, the Prime Minister said that in Wednesday’s mini-Budget, the Chan-
cellor would “lay out an agenda that is ambitious for business and ambitious for Britain,” while bringing the country’s debt
down.
The Japanese Yen remained under pressure against a “Trump-trade” supported US Dollar, reacting little to news that Japan’s
trade surplus remained broadly stable even though markets had expected a rise.
The Ministry of Finance reported a merchandise trade surplus of 496.2 billion yen ($4.5 billion) in October, just below Septem-
ber’s 498.3 billion Yen figure.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 100.87 100.77 0.10 0.10
USD/INR(Spot) 68.18 68.22 (0.04) (0.06)
USD/INR(NseNov) 68.20 68.15 0.05 0.07
EUR/INR(Spot) 72.47 72.52 (0.05) (0.07)
EUR/INR(NseNov) 72.55 72.43 0.12 0.17
GBP/INR(Spot) 84.84 85.24 (0.40) (0.47)
GBP/INR(NseNov) 84.88 84.13 0.75 0.88
JPY/INR(NseNov) 61.61 61.58 0.03 0.05
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On daily chart, the JPYINR price has completed a “Bullish
Anti-Cypher Harmonic Pattern” at 61.20 levels, the co-
ordinates of which are as follows:
Technical Parameter: XA of the leg from 62 to 67.80 ,AB
of the leg completed at 64 (i.e.61.80%% of XA leg.) ,BC of
the leg completed at 67.20 (i.e. 78.60% of AB leg.) and
CD of the leg completed at 61.20 levels (i.e. 127.20% of
XA and 224% Fibonacci Projection of BC leg.).
On daily chart momentum indicator RSI is trading near
its oversold zone at 33 levels which suggest further bull-
ishness can be seen in the prices.
So for trading perspective, one could use buy in the
range of 61.50 with SL of 61.10 for target of 62.20 levels.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The pair has given breakout of its falling channel pattern
at 67.10 levels on daily chart. On daily USDINR prices
have shown breakout of its falling trend line at 67.20
levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading above its 50 DEMA
which gives the sign of bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator RSI has traded above 50 levels,
which suggest further positive momentum can be seen
in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown pos-
itive crossover on daily chart.
So for trading perspective, one could buy in range 68.10
with SL of 67.70 for target of 68.70.
Currency Highlights
23rd
Nov’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 67.82 68.00 68.10 68.18 68.28 68.36 68.54
JPYINR 61.39 61.48 61.45 61.57 61.54 61.66 61.75

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
23rd
Nov’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price has shown breakdown of its falling channel a
pattern at 72.60 levels on daily chart. The EURINR pair
has shown horizontal trend line at 72.80 levels on daily
chart.
The pair has been trading below its 50 DEMA on daily
chart, which suggest further weakness can be seen in
the prices.
On daily chart momentum oscillator RSI have been trad-
ing below 60 which suggest bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart, which add more bearishness
in the prices.
For now we can expect prices should move lower to-
wards 71.70 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
The pair has shown breakout of its horizontal channel
pattern at 84.80 levels on daily chart. Moreover, prices
have been trading above 50 DEMA, which suggest short
term trend looks positive.
The price has formed bullish hammer candle stick
pattern on daily chart, which is bullish pattern.
A momentum indicator MADC has given positive Cross
over on hourly chart, which gives the sign of bullishness
in the prices.
The momentum indictor RSI has been trading above 60
levels on daily chart, which suggest the possibilities of
bounce back in the in the prices.
For now we expect prices should move higher towards
85.65 levels coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 83.97 84.46 84.66 84.95 85.15 85.44 85.93
EURINR 72.04 72.29 72.42 72.54 72.67 72.79 73.04

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
23rd
Nov’2016
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
23.11.16 02:30 PM Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.5 53.2 Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; EURINR
23.11.16 07:00 PM Core Durable Goods Orders
m/m
0.1% 0.2% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
23.11.16 07:00 PM Unemployment Claims 235K 241K Actual < Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
23.11.16 07:30 PM Durable Goods Orders m/m -0.3% 1.2% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
23.11.16 07:30 PM Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.4 53.6 Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
23.11.16 08:30 PM New Home Sales 593K 591K Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
23.11.16 09:00 PM Crude Oil Inventories 5.3M

5. Currency Highlights
23rd
Nov’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd, ou=Research
Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.11.23 08:56:25 +05'30'