1. Currency Highlights
21st
Sep’2016
HighLights:
Indian Rupee depreciated marginally by 5 paise to 67.01 on Tuesday
US Building Permits unchanged at 1.14 million in the last month
German Producer Price Index (PPI) plunged by 0.1 percent in August
US Housing Starts dropped to 1.14 million in the month of August
Indian Rupee came under pressure after two days gain and depreciated mar-
ginally by 5 paise to end at 67.01 against the US dollar on Tuesday. The curren-
cy depreciated as investors were cautious ahead of two key central bank policy
reviews in the United States and Japan, which are scheduled to deliver their
latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
Further, dollar demand from importers and banks kept pressure on the curren-
cy. Additionally, weak domestic market sentiments continued with negative
movement in the currency. Indian Rupee moved in the range of 66.94 to 67.07
in Tuesday’s trading session. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference
rate for the dollar was seen at 67.0200 and Euro stood at 74.8814 as on 20th
September, 2016.
In cross-currency trades, the rupee rose sharply against the pound sterling to close at 86.84 from 87.38, while fell back against the euro to
end at 74.88 as compared to 74.76 on Monday. It also moved down further against the Japanese yen and finished a tad lower at 65.76 from
65.74 per 100 yens earlier.
US Dollar Index grew marginally around 0.2 percent in Tuesday’s trading session as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Re-
serve meeting on 21st
Sep’16 in which it is estimated that the central bank will not hike its interest rates.
However, sharp upside in the currency was prevented due to unfavourable economic data from the country along with rise in risk appetite
in global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency.
US Building Permits unchanged at 1.14 million in the last month. Housing Starts dropped to 1.14 million in August from 1.21 million in July.
Euro against dollar fell around 0.2 percent on Tuesday on account of strength in the dollar index. Further, unfavourable economic data
from the region led to downside in the currency. However, sharp fall in the currency was prevented due to upbeat global market senti-
ments.
German Producer Price Index (PPI) plunged by 0.1 percent in August as against a rise of 0.2 percent in July.
The Sterling Pound plunged in Tuesday’s trade as a result of strength in the dollar index. However, upbeat global market sentiments cush-
ioned sharp fall in the currency.
The Japanese Yen against dollar depreciated in Tuesday’s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments which led
to decline in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
USDollarIndex 95.96 95.95 0.01 0.01
USD/INR(Spot) 67.01 66.96 0.05 0.07
USD/INR(NseSep) 67.10 67.07 0.03 0.04
EUR/INR(Spot) 74.92 74.73 0.19 0.25
EUR/INR(NseSep) 75.06 74.90 0.16 0.21
GBP/INR(Spot) 86.89 87.36 (0.47) (0.54)
GBP/INR(NseSep) 88.34 88.80 (0.46) (0.52)
JPY/INR(NseSep) 65.85 65.84 0.01 0.02
MarketHighlights
2. Technical View:
On daily chart JPYINR pair opened the day at 65.75,
made a high of 66.01, low of 65.75, and closed the day at
65.85, thus it closed the day with gain of 0.02 point.
On daily chart JPYINR has been facing strong resistance
at 66 levels which is unfiled gap and 21 DMA also. Be-
side, pair has given closed below 21 moving average
which is place at 66.01level. it show that near term trend
is down. On daily chart pair has paying with 50 DMA.
Which suggest some consolidation at these levels.
On daily chart momentum indicator RSI reading is at 52
levels which is also strong horizontal support now its
point out for positive breath in the pair.
So for trading perspective, one could use sell on Rise up-
to level of 66.10 with SL of 66.60 for Target of 64.40-
63.85
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
On daily USDINR pair opened the day at 67.05, made a
high of 67.15, low of 67.02, and closed the day at 67.10,
thus it closed the day with a gain of 0.04 point. Pair has
given bearish breakout of head and shoulder. Pattern
will fail if price will goes above 67.49
On daily chart pair has consolidating in rage of 67.23 to
66.90 and other hand pair has been trading below all
medium term, and long term moving average 50, 100
and 200 which place at 67.12, 67.19 and 67.23 it suggest
medium, & long term trend is bearish Whereas on pair
has taking resistance at 200, 100,50 DAM.
A Daily momentum indicator RSI reading is at 51 levels
with positive crossover, besides RSI reading is near to its
trend line and horizontal resistance.
So for trading perspective, one could sell in range 67.10-
67.20 with SL of 67.50 for target of 66.30-66.10
Currency Highlights
21st
Sep’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.83 66.96 67.03 67.09 67.16 67.22 67.35
JPYINR 65.35 65.61 65.73 65.87 65.99 66.13 66.39
3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
21st
Sep’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
On daily chart EURINR pair opened the day at 75.93,
made a high of 75.02, low of 74.90, and closed the day
at 75.06, thus it closed the day with a gain of 0.20 point.
On weekly chart pair have formed bullish engulfing
pattern. This pattern failed if price goes below 74.48.
Price has have been trading in descending triangle
pattern now pair has taking support at 74.50 which is
200 DMA as well lower band of descending triangle.
Now price has given closed below 20 & 100DMA.
Many more price is trading above all moving averages
which suggest all time frame trend is negative.
On daily chart momentum oscillator RSI have been trad-
ing at 51 with positive cross over which suggest some
positive breath in the pair.
For now we can expect prices should move to towards
75.60- 75.80 levels in the coming trading session. How-
ever price is trading above 74.50
Technical View:
On daily after gap down opening GBPINR pair opened
the day at 88.49, made a high of 87.64, low of 87.02,
and closed the day at 87.07, thus it closed the day with
a loss of 0.57 point.
The price has been trading in following channel for-
mation from past weeks and prices have been facing
support of its lower band of channel at 86.06 to
86.25range. Pair is trading in range of 89 to 86.20
A momentum indicator MADC has given bullish Cross
over with positive note on daily chart, many more direc-
tional indicator RSI reading at 34 levels with negative
cross over with positive divergences which suggest
some accumulation at lower level.
For now we expect prices should move high towards
90.80 levels coming trading sessions. However price is
trading above 86.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 86.00 86.62 86.84 87.24 87.46 87.86 88.48
EURINR 74.45 74.75 74.91 75.05 75.21 75.35 75.65
4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
21st
Sep’2016
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
21.09.16 Tentative Monetary Policy Statement More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;
JPYINR
21.09.16 Tentative BOJ Press Conference More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;
JPYINR
21.09.16 2:00 PM Public Sector Net Borrowing -1.5B 10.5B Actual < Forecast = Good
for currency; GBPINR
21.09.16 8:00 PM Crude Oil Inventories -0.6M Actual < Forecast = Good
for Crude Oil
21.09.16 11:30 PM FOMC Economic Projections
21.09.16 11:30 PM FOMC Statement More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;
USDINR
21.09.16 11:30 PM Federal Funds Rate <0.5% <0.5% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
21.09.16 12:00 AM FOMC Press Conference More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;
USDINR
5. Currency Highlights
21st
Sep’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Vikas Chaudhari
Digitally signed by Vikas Chaudhari
DN: cn=Vikas Chaudhari, o=Choice Equity Broking
Pvt Ltd, ou=Research Department,
email=vikas.chaudhari@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.09.21 09:02:07 +05'30'
