The Indian rupee appreciated marginally against the US dollar on Monday. The rupee's gains were supported by dollar selling by exporters and banks as well as expectations that the government will highlight economic reforms to credit rating agencies. Domestic stock market gains and central bank intervention also kept the rupee in positive territory. Technical analyses indicate the rupee and yen may gain further while the euro and pound face resistance. Upcoming US economic data on building permits and housing starts could impact the dollar and currencies like the rupee if the data exceeds forecasts.

1. Currency Highlights
20th
Sep’2016
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee appreciated marginally to 66.97 in yesterday’s trade
 US NAHB Housing Market Index grew to 65-mark in current month
 Euro Zone Current Account at surplus of 21 billion Euros in July
 Japanese banks shut yesterday on eve of Respect-for-the-Aged Day
Indian Rupee managed to recover from its low and appreciated marginally to
end at 66.97 against the US dollar on Monday. The currency appreciated on
account of selling of dollars from exporters and banks.
Further, upside in the currency was seen after reports from Finance Ministry
officials are expected to pitch a ratings upgrade to Moody’s by stressing upon
the various reform initiatives taken by the Narendra Modi government, includ-
ing the goods and service tax, bankruptcy code, and inflation targeting through
the monetary policy committee, among others.
Additionally, upbeat domestic market sentiments coupled with inflow of for-
eign funds continued with positive movement in the currency. Moreover, inter-
vention by the central bank by selling the dollars kept the currency in positive
territory.
Indian Rupee moved in the range of 66.8625 to 66.9825 in Monday’s trading session. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate
for the dollar was seen at 66.87 and Euro stood at 74.68 as on 19th
September, 2016.
US Dollar Index declined around 0.4 percent in Monday’s trading session on account of estimates that the Federal Reserve will not hike its
interest rates in 20th
- 21st
September meeting.
However, sharp downside in the currency was prevented due to favourable economic data from the country along with rise in risk aversion
in global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
US National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index grew by 6 points to 65-mark in September as against a rise of 59-
level in August.
Euro against dollar rose around 0.2 percent on Monday on account of weakness in the dollar index. Further, favourable economic data
from the region led to upside in the currency. However, sharp rise in the currency was prevented due to weak global market sentiments.
Euro Zone Current Account was at a surplus of 21 billion Euros in July as against a surplus of 29.5 billion Euros in June.
The Sterling Pound gained around 0.1 percent in Monday’s trade as a result of weakness in the dollar index. However, weak global market
sentiments capped sharp rise in the currency.
The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated around 0.4 percent in Monday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in global market
sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
USDollarIndex 95.8 95.77 0.03 0.03
USD/INR(Spot) 66.95 66.98 (0.03) (0.04)
USD/INR(NseSep) 67.08 67.12 (0.04) (0.06)
EUR/INR(Spot) 75.16 75.32 (0.16) (0.21)
EUR/INR(NseSep) 75.29 75.43 (0.14) (0.19)
GBP/INR(Spot) 88.18 88.42 (0.24) (0.27)
GBP/INR(NseSep) 88.34 88.80 (0.46) (0.52)
JPY/INR(NseSep) 65.81 65.56 0.25 0.38
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On daily chart JPYINR pair opened the day at 65.65,
made a high of 65.91, low of 65.57, and closed the day at
65.81, thus it closed the day with gain of 0.37 point.
On daily chart JPYINR has been facing strong resistance
at 66 levels which is unfiled gap and 21 DMA also. Be-
side, pair has given closed below 21 moving average
which is place at 66.01level. it show that near term trend
is down. On daily chart pair has paying with 50 DMA.
Which suggest some consolidation at these levels.
On daily chart momentum indicator RSI reading is at 52
levels which is also strong horizontal support now its
point out for positive breath in the pair.
So for trading perspective, one could use sell on Rise up-
to level of 65.79 with SL of 66.60 for Target of 64.40-
63.85
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
On daily USDINR pair opened the day at 66.97, made a
high of 67.13, low of 66.93, and closed the day at 66.08,
thus it closed the day with a loss of 0.06 point. Pair has
given bearish breakout of head and shoulder. Pattern
will fail if price will goes above 67.49
On daily chart pair has open with gap down and made
small Doji candlestick pattern. Which represent uncer-
tainty, and other hand pair has been trading below all
medium term, and long term moving average which is
100 and 200.Whereas on pair has taking resistance at
200, 100,50 DAM
A Daily momentum indicator RSI reading is at 50 levels
with positive crossover, besides RSI reading is near to its
trend line and horizontal resistance.
So for trading perspective, one could sell in range 67.10-
67.20 with SL of 67.50 for target of 66.30-66.10
Currency Highlights
20th
Sep’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.79 66.91 66.99 67.03 67.11 67.15 67.27
JPYINR 64.54 65.22 65.54 65.90 66.22 66.58 67.26

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
20th
Sep’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
On daily chart EURINR pair opened the day at 75.29,
made a high of 75.35, low of 75.21, and closed the day
at 75.29, thus it closed the day with a loss of 0.18 point.
On weekly chart pair have formed bullish engulfing
pattern. This pattern failed if price goes below 74.48.
Price has have been trading in descending triangle
pattern now pair has taking support at 74.50 which is
200 DMA as well lower band of descending triangle.
Now price has given closed below 20 & 100DMA.
Many more price is trading above all moving averages
which suggest all time frame trend is negative.
On daily chart momentum oscillator RSI have been trad-
ing at 51 with positive cross over which suggest some
positive breath in the pair.
For now we can expect prices should move to towards
75.60- 75.80 levels in the coming trading session. How-
ever price is trading above 74.50
Technical View:
On daily after gap down opening GBPINR pair opened
the day at 88.62, made a high of 88.69, low of 88.32,
and closed the day at 88.34, thus it closed the day with
a loss of 0.52 point.
The price has been trading in following channel for-
mation from past weeks and prices have been facing
resistance of its upper band of channel at 89.25 levels.
Pair is trading in range of 89 to 86.20
A momentum indicator MADC has given bullish Cross
over with positive note on daily chart, many more direc-
tional indicator RSI reading at 38 levels with negative
cross over with positive divergences which suggest
some accumulation at lower level.
For now we expect prices should move high towards
90.80 levels coming trading sessions. However price is
trading above 86.10
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 86.89 87.22 87.40 87.55 87.73 87.88 88.21
EURINR 74.19 74.56 74.72 74.93 75.09 75.30 75.67

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
20th
Sep’2016
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
20.09.16 6:00pm Building Permits 1.14M 1.17M Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
20.09.16 6:00pm Housing Starts 1.21M 1.19M Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR

5. Currency Highlights
20th
Sep’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Vikas Chaudhari
Digitally signed by Vikas Chaudhari
DN: cn=Vikas Chaudhari, o=Choice Equity
Broking Pvt Ltd, ou=Research Department,
email=vikas.chaudhari@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.09.20 09:04:40 +05'30'