#ChoiceBroking #Currencyhighlights - Indian Rupee erased its gains and fell to 66.85 in Thursday’s trade

1. Currency Highlights
12th
Aug’2016
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee erased its gains and fell to 66.85 in Thursday’s trade
 China’s Industrial Production fell to 6 percent in the last month
 US Unemployment Claims fell to 266,000 for the w/e on 5th
Aug’16
 Italian Trade Balance was at a surplus of 4.66 billion Euros in June
China’s Industrial Production fell to 6 percent in July as against a rise of 6.2
percent in June. Fixed Asset Investment plunged to 8.1 percent in last
month from 9 percent in June. Retail Sales dropped to 10.2 percent in July
with respect to gain of 10.6 percent a month ago.
Indian Rupee erased its gains and depreciated around 13 paise to end at
66.85 against the US dollar on Thursday. The currency depreciated on ac-
count of strength in the dollar index in early part of the trade. However,
sharp downside in the currency was cushioned due to selling of dollars
from exporters and banks. Further, constant inflow of foreign funds in
debt and equity markets led to upside movement in the currency. Rise in
domestic market sentiments continued with positive movement in the
currency.
Indian Rupee moved in the range of 66.81 to 66.91 in Thursday’s trading session. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed refer-
ence rate for the dollar was seen at 66.8571 and Euro stood at 74.6526 in Thursday’s trade.
In cross-currency trades, the rupee recovered against the pound sterling to 86.78 from 87.22 yesterday and also recouped
against the euro to 74.52 from 74.61. However, the domestic currency declined against the Japanese yen to 65.99 per 100
yens from 65.94 on Wednesday.
US Dollar Index gained around 0.24 percent in Thursday’s trading session due to favourable economic data from the country.
However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments which led to
decline in demand for the low yielding currency.
US Unemployment Claims fell marginally to 266,000 for the week ending on 5th
Aug’16 as against a rise of 267,000 in prior
week. Import Prices dropped to 0.1 percent in July from 0.6 percent in June.
Euro against dollar declined around 0.4 percent on Thursday on account of strength in the dollar index along with unfavoura-
ble economic data from the region. However, upbeat global market sentiments cushioned sharp fall in the currency.
French Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) plunged by 0.4 percent in last month. Italian Trade Balance was at a surplus of 4.66
billion Euros in June from a previous surplus of 5.03 billion Euros in May.
The Sterling Pound fell around 0.43 percent in Thursday’s trade as a result of stronger dollar. However, upbeat global market
sentiments prevented sharp negative movement in the currency.
The Japanese Yen against dollar depreciated around 0.7 percent in Thursday’s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in
global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 95.8 95.61 0.19 0.20
USD/INR(Spot) 66.86 66.76 0.10 0.15
USD/INR(NseAug) 67.00 66.87 0.13 0.19
EUR/INR(Spot) 74.55 74.66 (0.11) (0.15)
EUR/INR(NseAug 74.72 74.84 (0.12) (0.16)
GBP/INR(Spot) 86.72 86.86 (0.14) (0.16)
GBP/INR(NseAug) 87.01 87.52 (0.51) (0.59)
JPY/INR(NseAug) 66.05 66.08 (0.03) (0.05)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
The price has taken support of its rising trend line at 64.50
levels on daily chart. The pair has been trading in rising chan-
nel pattern and price has taken support of its lower band of
channel pattern at 63.40 levels on daily chart. Price has
formed bullish inverted hammer candle stick pattern with ap-
pealing volumes which is bullish reversal pattern. However,
prices have been facing resistance of 66.40 levels on daily
chart. Any major movement can been seen after breakout of
falling trend line at 66.50 levels.
In addition, on daily chart prices have been trading above its
21 daily exponential moving average which gives the bullish
confirmation to the prices.
On daily chart, momentum oscillator RSI has moved above
60 levels, which gives positive confirmation to the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive crossover
on daily chart, which indicates further bullishness in the pric-
es.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The price has given breakdown of rising channel pattern at
67.10 levels on daily chart. On the other hand prices have
been facing resistance of its horizontal trend line at 67.20
levels on daily chart.
Moreover, price have been trading below its 21 daily expo-
nential moving average which suggest short term trend is
bearish. So any rally in the prices towards 67 level, used as
selling opportunity.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved below 45 levels on
daily chart, which suggest bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor MACD has given negative crossover
on daily chart, which gives negative confirmation to the pric-
es.
For now we expect prices to move lower towards 66.55 lev-
els in few trading sessions.
Currency Highlights
12th
Aug’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.78 66.89 66.95 67.00 67.06 67.11 67.22
JPYINR 65.71 65.90 65.99 66.09 66.18 66.28 66.47

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
12th
Aug’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The prices have been trading in descending triangle pattern
from past few weeks and prices has faced resistance of its
upper band of triangle pattern at 77 levels on daily chart.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading below its 21 daily
exponential moving average which indicates that trend is
remains down.
A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading below 50 lev-
els on daily chart which gives the signs of bullishness to the
prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
sign on daily chart which support our bearish view on the
pair.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards 73.90
levels in the coming trading sessions.
Technical View:
The price has given breakdown of its symmetrical triangle
pattern at 88.50 levels on daily chart. Price has also given
the breakdown of its consolidation range of 89.50 to
88.50levels on hourly chart.
The price has formed Bearish candle on daily with appalling
volumes which indicates further down side movement can
be seen.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved below at 45 levels
on hourly chart, which suggest bearishness in the prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on 4 hourly chart which support our bearish view
on the pair.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards 86.50
levels in the coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 86.04 86.54 86.79 87.04 87.29 87.54 88.04
EURINR 74.18 74.48 74.60 74.78 74.90 75.08 75.38

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
12.08.16 7:30 AM Industrial Production y/y 6.2% 6.2% Actual > Forecast = Good for
Yuan
12.08.16 7:30 AM Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 9.0% 8.9% Actual > Forecast = Good for
Yuan
12.08.16 11:30 AM German Prelim GDP q/q 0.7% 0.3% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
12.08.16 2:30 PM Flash GDP q/q 0.3% 0.3% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
12.08.16 6:00 PM Core Retail Sales m/m 0.7% 0.2% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
12.08.16 6:00 PM PPI m/m 0.5% 0.1% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
12.08.16 6:00 PM Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.4% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
12.08.16 6:00 PM Core PPI m/m 0.4% 0.2% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
12.08.16 7:30 PM Prelim UoM Consumer Senti-
ment
90.0 91.5 Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
12th
Aug’2016

5. Currency Highlights
12th
Aug’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd,
ou=Research Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com,
c=IN
Date: 2016.08.12 08:55:28 +05'30'