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1QFY2011 Result Update | Media
                                                                                                                     July 28, 2010



 HT Media                                                                                BUY
                                                                                         CMP                               Rs158
 Performance Highlights                                                                  Target Price                      Rs186
  (Rs cr)                   1QFY11       1QFY10          % yoy      4QFY10       %qoq    Investment Period           12 months
  Revenue                      402.8        329.6         22.2        374.3        7.6
  EBITDA                        78.6         50.8         54.8         82.1      (4.3)    Stock Info
  OPM (%)                       19.5         15.4       410bp          21.9    (243bp)    Sector                            Media
  PAT                           40.2         28.0         43.5         50.0     (19.8)    Market Cap (Rs cr)                3,722
 Source: Company, Angel Research                                                          Beta                                0.8
                                                                                          52 Week High / Low              174/100
 HT Media (HTML) posted robust numbers on both revenue and profitability fronts.
 Key highlights include: 1) overall growth of 22% yoy in ad revenue - 21% yoy in          Avg. Daily Volume                45,480
 English (positive surprise) and 24% yoy in Hindi, 2) 6% yoy growth in circulation        Face Value (Rs)                     2.0
 revenues, 3) 39% yoy jump in radio revenues, and 4) 410bp OPM expansion
 driven by 520bp gross margin expansion. We have revised our estimates: 1)                BSE Sensex                       17,957
 revenue by 4-6% to account for higher ad revenues, and 2) OPM by 75–95bp to              Nifty                             5,398
 reflect significant gross margin expansion. We maintain a Buy on the stock.
                                                                                          Reuters Code                   HTML.BO
 Ad revenues drive top-line, benign newsprint cost aid margins: HTML posted                Bloomberg Code             HTML@IN
 top-line growth of 22% yoy to Rs403cr (Rs330cr), aided by 22% yoy growth in
 advertising revenue to Rs329cr (Hindustan contributed to Rs96cr) and 6% yoy
 growth in circulation revenues to Rs47cr (Hindustan contributed to Rs32cr). In           Shareholding Pattern (%)
 terms of earnings, the company posted 43.5% yoy growth to Rs40cr (Rs28cr) on a
 recurring basis despite the spike in tax rate (up 470bp yoy), depreciation cost (up      Promoters                          68.8
 11% yoy) and 47% yoy decline in other income, aided by significant margin                MF /Banks /Indian FIs              16.0
 expansion of 410bp yoy (driven largely by 520bp gross margin expansion),
                                                                                          FII /NRIs /OCBs                    15.7
 strong top-line growth and 19% yoy decrease in interest cost.
                                                                                          Indian Public /Others               3.2
 Outlook and Valuation: HTML continued to show resilience in its new businesses
 this quarter (radio and internet gained traction). Moreover, aggressive
 cost-rationalisation in the radio business (continues to be EBITDA positive),
                                                                                          Abs. (%)          3m     1yr       3yr
 trickle–down effect of higher revenue traction and benign newsprint price
 environment (factoring in ~10% rise during FY2010-12E) will help HTML post               Sensex             3.3   17.1     17.9
 higher margins (~20%+) during FY2011-12E. At the CMP of Rs158, HTML is                   HTML              13.3   42.4     (31.1)
 trading at 17x FY2012E revised consolidated EPS of Rs9.3. Owing to the
 significant improvement in profitability of its growing businesses and up-tick in
 advertising revenues, we maintain a Buy on the stock, with a revised Target Price
 of Rs186 (Rs182), based on P/E multiple of 20x on FY2012E earnings.

 Key Financials (Consolidated)
  Y/E March (Rs cr)                      FY2009       FY2010      FY2011E     FY2012E
  Net Sales                                1,347        1,413       1,741       2,014
  % chg                                     11.9           4.9       23.2        15.7
  Net Profit (Adj)                          20.0        143.5       178.9       218.9
  % chg                                    (80.3)       617.3        24.7        22.4
  EBITDA (%)                                 6.5         18.1        19.8        20.3
  EPS (Rs)                                   0.9           6.1        7.6         9.3    Anand Shah
  P/E (x)                                  185.5         25.9        20.8        17.0    022-4040 3800-334
  P/BV (x)                                   4.4           3.8        3.3         2.8    anand.shah@angeltrade.com
  RoE (%)                                    2.4         15.8        16.9        17.6
                                             1.6         14.5        19.2        21.3    Chitrangda Kapur
  RoCE (%)
                                                                                         022-4040 3800-323
  EV/Sales (x)                               3.0           2.8        2.2         1.8
                                                                                         chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com
  EV/EBITDA (x)                             45.8         15.4        11.2         9.0
 Source: Company, Angel Research

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                                                                    1
HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update




Exhibit 1: Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr)                 1QFY11    1QFY10              % yoy    4QFY10      % qoq        FY2010         FY2009     % chg
Net Sales                          402.8     329.6               22.2       374.3      7.6       1,412.9         1,346.6       4.9
Consumption of RM                  130.3     123.7                5.3       115.5     12.8            476.0       558.8     (14.8)
(% of Sales)                        32.3          37.5                       30.9                      33.7         41.5
Staff Costs                         74.9          64.6           16.0        63.1     18.8            252.0       241.9        4.2
(% of Sales)                        18.6          19.6                       16.8                      17.8         18.0
Advertising                         28.5          19.5           46.2        27.0      5.5            115.9       154.1     (24.8)
(% of Sales)                         7.1           5.9                         7.2                      8.2         11.4
Other Expenses                      90.5          71.0           27.6        86.6      4.5            313.7       303.9        3.2
(% of Sales)                        22.5          21.5                       23.1                      22.2         22.6
Total Expenditure                  324.3     278.8               16.3       292.2     11.0       1,157.5         1,258.7     (8.0)
Operating Profit                    78.6          50.8           54.8        82.1     (4.3)           255.4        87.9     190.6
OPM (%)                             19.5          15.4                       21.9                      18.1          6.5
Interest                             6.4           7.9          (18.7)         7.1    (9.7)            29.5        32.3      (8.6)
Depreciation                        19.4          17.5           11.1        18.1      7.5             70.7        68.8        2.7
Other Income                         7.2          13.6          (47.4)       15.3    (53.2)            40.9        33.1      23.7
PBT (excl. Ext Items)               59.9          39.0           53.5        72.3    (17.1)           196.1        19.8     888.3
Ext Income/(Expense)                    -             -                      (1.5)                     (7.6)      (19.1)
PBT (incl. Ext Items)               59.9          39.0          53.47        70.8                     188.5          0.7         -
(% of Sales)                        14.9          11.8                       18.9                      13.3          0.1
Provision for Taxation              19.8          11.1           78.6        22.2    (11.2)            53.7        12.5     329.5
(% of PBT)                          33.0          28.3                       31.4                      28.5      1,679.2
Recurring PAT                       40.2          28.0           43.5        50.0    (19.8)           142.4          7.4   1,837.7
PATM (%)                            10.0           8.5                       13.4                      10.1          0.5
Minority Interest                   (1.2)         (0.7)                        0.6                     (1.1)      (12.7)
Reported PAT                        41.4          28.7           44.1        48.0    (13.8)           135.9          0.9         -
Equity shares (cr)                  23.5          23.5                       23.5                      23.5        23.5
EPS (Rs)                             1.8           1.2           44.1         2.0    (13.8)             5.8          0.0
Source: Company, Angel Research

                                              Exhibit 2: Revenue Highlights (Consolidated)
                                                  Y/E March (Rs cr)                      1QFY11                1QFY10        % yoy
                                                  Consolidated sales                          402.8             329.6         22.2
                                                  Hindi                                       132.8             110.4         20.3
                                                  English                                     270.0             219.2         23.2
                                                  Advertising                                 328.6             269.4         22.0
                                                  Hindi                                        96.3              77.9         23.6
                                                  English                                     232.3             191.5         21.3
                                                  Circulation                                  46.8              44.4          5.4
                                                  Hindi                                        32.3              31.1          4.0
                                                  English                                      14.5              13.3          8.7
                                                  Radio                                        12.3               8.8         39.3
                                                  Internet                                      2.0               0.7        170.3
                                                  Core revenue                                389.7             323.4         20.5
                                                  Others                                       13.1               6.2        112.8
                                               




                                                  Source: Company, Angel Research



July 28, 2010                                                                                                                    2
HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update



                                                     Top-line growth at 22% led by ~20%+ growth in both English and Hindi

                                                     HT Media posted strong top-line growth of 22.2% yoy to Rs403cr (Rs330cr), on a
                                                     consolidated basis, driven by 21% yoy growth in English (key positive surprise) and
                                                     24% yoy growth in Hindi (led by UP expansion). Circulation revenues recorded 6%
                                                     yoy growth to Rs47cr (Hindustan contributed to Rs32cr). Other highlight of the
                                                     quarter included foray of HTML in Gujarat with the launch of Mint in Ahmedabad.


                                                     Exhibit 3: Strong growth in top-line aided by up-tick in ad revenues
                                                                450                                                                                          403
                                                                400                                                                 359        374
                                                                                  344             338                  350
                                                                350                                        330
                                                                300
                                                                250
                                                      (Rs cr)




                                                                200
                                                                150
                                                                100
                                                                 50
                                                                 -
                                                                            3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11

                                                     Source: Company, Angel Research




Exhibit 4: English/ Hindi Ad-rev. up 21%, 24% yoy resp.                             Exhibit 5: Circulation rev. exhibit flat yoy growth
                                                     329             25
                                            302                                                   52                                                          35
                          282         286
          300    269                                                 20                           50                                                          30
                                                                     15                           48                                                          25
          200                                                        10
(Rs cr)




                                                                                                  46                                                          20
                                                                                        (Rs cr)
                                                                            (%)




                                                                                                                                                                   (%)
                                                                     5                            44                           51                             15
                                                                                                                  48                               47
          100                                                        -                            42                                      43                  10
                                                                                                          44
                                                                     (5)                          40                                                          5
           -                                                         (10)                         38                                                          -
                1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11                                                      1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
                   Ad Revenue (LHS)         YoY growth (RHS)                                              Circ Revenue (LHS)              YoY growth (RHS)

Source: Company, Angel Research                                                     Source: Company, Angel Research


                                                     Amongst the segments, the new businesses registered significant revenue traction.
                                                     The radio business (merged in 4QFY2009) reported robust top-line growth of 39%
                                                     yoy to Rs12.3cr (Rs8.8cr) on increased advertising, while the internet business
                                                     contributed Rs2cr to revenues, as Shine.com registered 5mn+ users.

                                                     Management indicated the commencement of two presses for the Burda joint venture
                                                     (JV), while no guidance was given regarding the revenue traction from Burda this
                                                     quarter. Going ahead, we expect the Burda JV to contribute ~Rs60cr to top-line in
                                                     FY2011 (in line with management’s guidance of Rs60-70cr top-line).




July 28, 2010                                                                                                                                                        3
HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update



                                                                         Bumper earnings, despite jump in tax rate and decline in other income

                                                                         In terms of earnings, HT Media posted robust growth of 43.5% yoy to Rs40cr
                                                                         (Rs28cr) on a recurring basis, and 44.1% yoy growth to Rs41cr (Rs29cr) on reported
                                                                         basis, despite the spike in tax rate (up 470bp yoy), depreciation cost (up 11% yoy)
                                                                         and 47% yoy decline in other income, aided by significant margin expansion, strong
                                                                         growth in top-line and 19% yoy decrease in interest cost. Moreover, losses in the
                                                                         radio business and internet business have reduced.


Exhibit 6: Expect NPM to sustain at ~10% for FY11                                               Exhibit 7: Higher gross margins drive OPM expansion
          50                                                                        16                80.0                                                     69.1
                                                                                                                                                       68.4             67.7
                                                                                    14                                                62.5   64.7
          40                                                                                                               59.8
                                                                                    12                           56.5
          30                                                                        10                60.0
(Rs cr)




                                                                                    8

                                                                                          (%)
          20
                                                                                    6
          10                                                                        4                 40.0



                                                                                                (%)
                                                                                    2                                                                  18.8    21.9     19.5
           -                                                                                                                          15.4   16.6
                                                                                    -
          (10)                                                                      (2)               20.0
                                                                                                                  5.7
                 3QFY09


                            4QFY09


                                     1QFY10


                                              2QFY10


                                                       3QFY10


                                                                4QFY10


                                                                           1QFY11




                                                                                                                           (6.1)
                                                                                                         -
                                                                                                                3QFY09             1QFY10            3QFY10           1QFY11
                                                                                                      (20.0)
                          Recurring PAT (LHS)                   NPM (RHS)                                                       OPM           Gross Margins

Source: Company, Angel Research                                                                 Source: Company, Angel Research


                                                                         Significant gross margin expansion drives OPM, up by 410bp

                                                                         At the operating level, HTML posted 410bp yoy expansion in OPM, driving 55% yoy
                                                                         growth in EBITDA to Rs79cr, aided by significant 520bp yoy expansion in gross
                                                                         margins (benign newsprint prices). Currently, the company’s average cost for
                                                                         newsprint stands at Rs28,250/MT. However, the company re-invested the gains in
                                                                         higher ad expenses (up 46% yoy, due to increased competitive scenario in
                                                                         Bihar/Jharkhand with the entry of DB Corp), and other expenses (up 28%), limiting
                                                                         further margin expansion. At the EBIT level, radio reported a loss of Rs1.2cr (loss of
                                                                         Rs2.7cr), while the internet business reported a loss Rs8.7cr (loss of Rs9.5cr).

                                                                         Exhibit 8: Segmental Performance (Consolidated)
                                                                         Y/E March (Rs cr)        1QFY11         1QFY10             % chg     FY2010          FY2009           % chg
                                                                         Revenue
                                                                         Printing                     391.9        327.7            19.6      1,396.7         1,338.2            4.4
                                                                         Radio                          12.3             8.8         39.3           43.1         28.3           52.0
                                                                         Internet                        2.0             0.7       170.3             5.6          1.0      450.0
                                                                         Total Revenue                406.2        337.2             20.5     1,445.4         1,367.5            5.7
                                                                         Less: Inter segment             2.0             0.6                         7.5          8.5
                                                                         Less: Other Op Inc              1.4             7.1                        24.9         12.5
                                                                         Total Net sales              402.8        329.6             22.2     1,412.9         1,346.6            4.9
                                                                         EBIT
                                                                         Printing                       77.7            54.4         42.9       262.1          130.5       100.9
                                                                         Radio                          (1.2)           (2.7)                       (5.9)      (41.5)
                                                                         Internet                       (8.7)           (9.5)                   (37.8)         (51.0)
                                                                         Total EBIT                     67.7            42.1         60.8       218.4            38.0      474.3
                                                                         EBIT Margin (%)                16.7            12.5       419bp            15.1          2.8
                                                                         Source: Company, Angel Research




July 28, 2010                                                                                                                                                                    4
HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update



                Investment Rationale

                    Incremental growth in ad-revenue, Burda JV to scale up top-line: HTML has
                    recorded a rebound in the English ad-revenue this quarter, with a yoy growth of
                    21% on account of improved yield (~10–12% improvement) as ad-rate hikes get
                    absorbed. With the up-tick in the economy, we estimate this growth in
                    ad-revenue to sustain, with the English (HT Times and Mint) and Hindi print
                    businesses (HMVL), posting a CAGR of 15.9% and 23.8% over FY2010–12E
                    respectively. While Hindustan’s ad-revenue will grow maximum in UP (we peg a
                    CAGR of ~29% over FY2010–12E), HT Mumbai will be the maximum growth
                    driver for the English print’s ad-revenue (we peg a CAGR of ~17% over
                    FY2010–12E). Moreover, FY2011 will be the first full operational year for the
                    Burda JV and we estimate it to contribute ~Rs60cr in top-line in FY2011(in line
                    with management’s guidance of Rs60-70cr top-line contribution)

                    Resilience in new business to continue, expect OPM of ~20%+ in FY11/FY12E:
                    In terms of operating performance, HTML continues to show resilience in its new
                    businesses this quarter (radio and internet gained traction). Moreover,
                    aggressive cost-rationalisation in the radio business (continues to be EBITDA
                    positive), trickle-down effect of higher revenue traction and benign newsprint
                    price environment (factoring in ~10% rise during FY2010-12E) will help HTML
                    post higher margins (~20%+) during FY2011-12E.

                    Balance sheet to remain healthy, we peg cash to swell to Rs175cr in FY2012E:
                    HTML has shown significant turnaround in the net working capital in FY2010,
                    with improvement in both inventory turnover and debtor turnover. Going
                    forward, in our FY2011E and FY2012E estimates, we expect the company to
                    sustain its negative working capital cycle, thus adding to its cash surplus. As of
                    FY2010, HTML recorded ~Rs109cr of cash on its books, which we peg it to swell
                    to Rs175cr by FY2012E. Hence, we believe that HTML is extremely well placed in
                    terms of funding its expansion plans and continuing investing in its growing
                    business, owing to low debt: equity of ~0.2x and low working capital
                    requirement.

                Outlook and Valuation

                Post the strong 1QFY2011 results, we have revised our estimates: 1) revenue revised
                upwards by 4-6% to account for a bounce back in ad-revenues particularly for the
                English print business and incremental growth from Burda JV (FY2011 is the first full
                year of operation for the company), and 2) OPM revised upwards by 75–95bp to
                account for significant gross margin expansion.

                Exhibit 9: Change in estimates
                 Parameter         Old Estimate             New Estimate               % chg
                (Rs cr)          FY11E     FY12E          FY11E      FY12E         FY11E    FY12E
                Revenue          1,668       1,906         1,741       2,014         4.3        5.7
                OPM (%)           19.0        19.4          19.8        20.3        78bp       93bp
                EPS (Rs)            7.6           9.1        7.6          9.3         0.2        2.4
                Source: Company, Angel Research


                At Rs158, HTML is trading at 17x FY2012E revised consolidated EPS of Rs9.3. Owing
                to the significant improvement in profitability of its growing businesses and up-tick in
                advertising revenues, we maintain a Buy on the stock, with a revised Target Price of
                Rs186 (Rs182), based on a P/E multiple of 20x FY2012E.

                Downside risks to our estimates include – 1) sharp rise in newsprint prices, 2)
                increased competitive intensity (HTML has already reacted to the entry of DB Corp.
                in Bihar/Jharkhand by slashing its cover price to Rs2 in Ranchi), and 3) Higher-than-
                expected losses or re-investment in growing businesses (Radio, Mint and Internet).


July 28, 2010                                                                                          5
HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update




                                                       Exhibit 10: Key Assumptions-Revenue
                                                       (Rs cr)                             FY2009      FY2010     FY2011E         FY2012E #CAGR
                                                       Advt Revenues                        1,133        1,141       1,378             1,589     18.0
                                                       HT Times/ Mint                          890        844        1,002             1,134     15.9
                                                       Hindustan                               244        297          376              455      23.8
                                                       Circ Revenues                           154        183          195              217       8.8
                                                       HT Times/ Mint                           49          63            65             71       6.4
                                                       Hindustan                               105        121          130              146      10.0
                                                       Radio Revenues                           29          41            63             75      34.9
                                                       Burda JV                                   -          5            60             85     297.5
                                                       Others                                   30          42            44             49       7.4
                                                       Total Revenue                        1,347        1,413       1,741             2,014     19.4


                                                       YoY growth (%)
                                                       Advt Revenues                          11.9         0.7        20.8              15.3
                                                       HT Times/ Mint                           5.0       (5.1)       18.6              13.3
                                                       Hindustan                              47.7        21.5        26.9              20.8
                                                       Circ Revenues                            2.5       19.0            6.5           11.1
                                                       HT Times/ Mint                         (7.5)       27.6            4.4            8.4
                                                       Hindustan                                8.0       15.0            7.6           12.5
                                                       Radio Revenues                         54.3        42.1        52.9              19.0
                                                       Burda JV                                                    1,015.2              41.7
                                                       Others                                 39.4        39.8            5.3            9.6


                                                       % of Total
                                                       Advt revenue                           84.2        80.8        79.2              78.9
                                                       Circ Revenues                          11.4        13.0        11.2              10.8
                                                       Radio Revenues                           2.2        2.9            3.6            3.7
                                                       Burda JV                                   -        0.4            3.4            4.2
                                                       Others                                   2.2        3.0            2.5            2.4
                                                       Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: # CAGR is between FY2010-12E



Exhibit 11: Peer Valuation
 Company            Reco           Mcap        CMP      TP       Upside       P/E (x)           EV/Sales (x)         RoE (%)              CAGR #
                                  (Rs cr)       (Rs)   (Rs)         (%)   FY11E FY12E         FY11E FY12E         FY11E FY12E           Sales  PAT
 HT Media             Buy         3,722         158    186         17.7     20.8    17.0         2.2       1.8     16.9         17.6     19.4   23.5
 Jagran               Buy         3,708         123    160         30.0     18.7    15.5         3.4       2.9     31.0         34.3     15.7   16.2
 DCHL                 Buy         3,204         132    193         46.2     10.6     9.1         2.8       2.3     19.7         20.2     14.4   14.6
                                        ^                          #
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: denotes consensus data, denotes CAGR for FY2010-12E

Exhibit 12: Angel v/s Consensus estimates
 Top-line (Rs cr)                           FY2011E              FY2012E    EPS (Rs)                               FY2011E                 FY2012E
 Angel estimates                              1,741                2,014    Angel estimates                             7.6                     9.3
 Consensus                                    1,647                1,838    Consensus                                  7.8                      9.4
 Diff (%)                                        5.7                  9.6   Diff (%)                                  (2.6)                   (1.1)
Source: Company, Angel Research




July 28, 2010                                                                                                                                          6
HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update



                Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)                                     Rs crore
                Y/E March                       FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
                Gross sales                      1,040   1,203    1,347    1,413   1,741      2,014
                Less: Excise duty                    -        -        -       -       -              -
                Net Sales                        1,040   1,203    1,347    1,413   1,741      2,014
                Total operating income           1,040   1,203    1,347    1,413   1,741      2,014
                % chg                             26.1    15.7     11.9      4.9    23.2       15.7
                Total Expenditure                 871    1,033    1,259    1,158   1,396      1,605
                Cost of Materials                 465     497       595     515     609         712
                SG&A                              206     289       354     318     395         450
                Personnel                         160     198       242     252     305         346
                Others                             41       49       68      72      87          97
                EBITDA                            169     170        88     255     344         410
                % chg                             41.8     0.7    (48.3)   190.6    34.8       18.9
                (% of Net Sales)                  16.2    14.1      6.5     18.1    19.8       20.3
                Depreciation& Amortisation         44       57       69      71      83          93
                EBIT                              125     113        19     185     261         317
                % chg                             57.7    (9.7)   (83.1)   868.5    41.4       21.2
                (% of Net Sales)                  12.0     9.4      1.4     13.1    15.0       15.7
                Interest & other Charges           15       18       32      30      19          14
                Other Income                       37       44       33      41      37          41
                (% of PBT)                        25.0    31.6    166.6     20.9    13.2       11.9
                Share in profit of Associates        -        -        -       -       -              -
                Recurring PBT                     147     139        20     196     279         343
                % chg                             78.1    (5.3)   (85.7)   888.4    42.4       23.0
                Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.)       (0)        -      19       8        -              -
                PBT (reported)                    147     139         1     188     279         343
                Tax                                55       38       12      54      84         103
                (% of PBT)                        37.2    27.1     62.9     27.4    30.0       30.0
                PAT (reported)                     92     101       (12)    135     195         240
                Add: Share of associates             -        -        -       -       -              -
                Less: Minority interest (MI)       (5)       0      (13)     (1)     17          21
                PAT after MI (reported)            97     101         1     136     179         219
                ADJ. PAT                           97     101        20     144     179         219
                % chg                             64.4     4.6    (80.3)   617.3    24.7       22.4
                (% of Net Sales)                   9.3     8.4      1.5     10.2    10.3       10.9
                Basic EPS (Rs)                     4.1     4.3      0.9      6.1     7.6        9.3
                Fully Diluted EPS (Rs)             4.1     4.3      0.9      6.1     7.6        9.3
                % chg                             63.9     4.6    (80.3)   617.3    24.7       22.4




July 28, 2010                                                                                    7
HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update



                Balance Sheet (Consolidated)                                    Rs crore
                Y/E March                  FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
                SOURCES OF FUNDS
                Equity Share Capital           47     47      47      47      47      47
                Preference Capital              -       -       -       -       -          -
                Reserves& Surplus            717     806     802     924    1,095   1,305
                Shareholders Funds           764     853     849     971    1,142   1,352
                Minority Interest               0      0      (7)     22      38      60
                Total Loans                  166     223     371     313     198     148
                Deferred Tax Liability         27     12      21      18      18      18
                Total Liabilities            957    1,088   1,233   1,323   1,395   1,578
                APPLICATION OF FUNDS
                Gross Block                  614     701     823    1,033   1,221   1,366
                Less: Acc. Depreciation      124     177     247     322     405     498
                Net Block                    490     524     576     712     817     868
                Capital Work-in-Progress       31     59     196     129     147     164
                Goodwill                        -       -       -       -       -          -
                Investments                  229     266     304     475     475     475
                Current Assets               418     520     698     670     774     982
                   Cash                      110      77      71     109      75     175
                   Loans & Advances            56    129     232     200     252     292
                   Other                     252     314     396     362     446     515
                Current liabilities          211     280     540     666     817     912
                Net Current Assets           207     240     158       5     (43)     70
                Misc Exp                        0      0        -      2        -          -
                Total Assets                 957    1,088   1,233   1,323   1,395   1,578




July 28, 2010                                                                         8
HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update




                Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)                                     Rs crore
                Y/E March                      FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
                Profit before tax                147      139         1     189      279     343
                Depreciation                       44       57      69       71       83       93
                Change in Working Capital        (22)     (19)     132      155       24     (12)
                Interest / Dividend (Net)          (0)    (11)       12      15        3      (3)
                Direct taxes paid                 55        60       20      41       84     103
                Others                              9        3        5      (3)      (5)     (2)
                Cash Flow from Operations        123      110      198      386      300     316
                (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets      (86)   (120)    (259)    (156)    (206)   (162)
                (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments     (189)      (62)     (82)   (133)       0        0
                Cash Flow from Investing        (275)    (182)    (341)    (290)    (206)   (162)
                Issue of Equity                  (16)        0        0      (2)       0          0
                Inc./(Dec.) in loans               (4)      57     149      (49)    (115)    (50)
                Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)           7        8       11        8      10          8
                Interest / Dividend (Net)         (5)      10        2        (1)      3       (3)
                Cash Flow from Financing         (21)      39      136      (59)    (128)    (55)
                Inc./(Dec.) in Cash             (173)     (33)       (7)     38      (33)     99
                Opening Cash balances            281      110       77       71      109      75
                Closing Cash balances            107       77       71      109       75     175




July 28, 2010                                                                                9
HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update




                Key Ratios
                Y/E March                    FY2007    FY2008    FY2009    FY2010    FY2011E FY2012E
                Valuation Ratio (x)
                P/E (on FDEPS)                 38.3      36.6     185.5      25.9       20.8     17.0
                P/CEPS                         26.4      23.4      41.8      17.4       14.2     11.9
                P/BV                            4.9       4.4       4.4       3.8        3.3      2.8
                Dividend yield (%)              0.2       0.3       0.2       0.2        0.2      0.2
                EV/Sales                        3.6       3.2       3.0       2.8        2.2      1.8
                EV/EBITDA                      22.4      22.8      45.8      15.4       11.2      9.0
                EV / Total Assets               3.9       3.6       3.3       3.0        2.8      2.3
                Per Share Data (Rs)
                EPS (Basic)                     4.1       4.3       0.9       6.1        7.6      9.3
                EPS (fully diluted)             4.1       4.3       0.9       6.1        7.6      9.3
                Cash EPS                        6.0       6.8       3.8       9.1       11.1     13.3
                DPS                             0.3       0.4       0.3       0.4        0.3      0.3
                Book Value                     32.6      36.4      36.2      41.3       48.6     57.6
                Dupont analysis
                EBIT margin                    12.0       9.4       1.4      13.1       15.0     15.7
                Tax retention ratio             0.6       0.7       0.4       0.7        0.7      0.7
                Asset turnover (x)              1.7       1.8       1.7       1.8        2.2      2.3
                ROIC (Post-tax)                13.2      12.1       0.9      16.8       23.1     25.0
                Cost of Debt (Post-tax)         0.1       0.1       0.0       0.1        0.1      0.1
                Leverage (x)                   (0.2)     (0.2)     (0.1)     (0.1)      (0.3)    (0.3)
                Operating ROE                  10.3       9.9       0.8      14.4       16.3     16.5
                Returns (%)
                RoCE                           13.5      11.0       1.6      14.5       19.2     21.3
                Angel RoIC (Pre-tax)           12.7      11.0       0.8      18.2       21.6     23.9
                RoE                            13.3      12.5       2.4      15.8       16.9     17.6
                Turnover ratios (x)
                Asset Turnover                  1.7       1.7       1.6       1.4        1.4      1.5
                Inventory / Sales (days)       36.2      35.0      47.6      31.0       31.7     32.4
                Receivables (days)             52.1      60.2      59.6      62.6       61.9     60.8
                Payables (days)                67.0      77.6     141.7     164.7      162.6    156.7
                Net Working capital (days)     34.0      49.2      23.6     (26.8)     (24.9)   (19.0)
                Solvency ratios (x)
                Net Debt to equity             (0.2)     (0.1)     (0.0)     (0.3)      (0.3)    (0.4)
                Net Debt to EBITDA             (1.0)     (0.7)     (0.0)     (1.1)      (1.0)    (1.2)
                Interest Coverage               8.4       6.3       0.6       6.3       13.9     22.6




July 28, 2010                                                                                   10
HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update




 Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800                    E-mail: research@angeltrade.com                    Website: www.angeltrade.com

 Disclaimer
 This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
 decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
 such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
 referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
 risks of such an investment.
 Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make
 investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
 document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.
 Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
 trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
 fundamentals.
 The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
 sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
 document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
 responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
 Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify,
 nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
 Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,
 compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
 This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
 redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.
 Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or
 other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in
 the past.
 Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
 connection with the use of this information.
 Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the
 latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have
 investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.




 Disclosure of Interest Statement                                                      HTML
 1. Analyst ownership of the stock                                                      No
 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                                No
 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock                     No
 4. Broking relationship with company covered                                           No

 Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.



 Ratings (Returns) :             Buy (> 15%)                      Accumulate (5% to 15%)                 Neutral (-5 to 5%)
                                 Reduce (-5% to 15%)              Sell (< -15%)

July 28, 2010                                                                                                                             11

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HT Media

  • 1. 1QFY2011 Result Update | Media July 28, 2010 HT Media BUY CMP Rs158 Performance Highlights Target Price Rs186 (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 % yoy 4QFY10 %qoq Investment Period 12 months Revenue 402.8 329.6 22.2 374.3 7.6 EBITDA 78.6 50.8 54.8 82.1 (4.3) Stock Info OPM (%) 19.5 15.4 410bp 21.9 (243bp) Sector Media PAT 40.2 28.0 43.5 50.0 (19.8) Market Cap (Rs cr) 3,722 Source: Company, Angel Research Beta 0.8 52 Week High / Low 174/100 HT Media (HTML) posted robust numbers on both revenue and profitability fronts. Key highlights include: 1) overall growth of 22% yoy in ad revenue - 21% yoy in Avg. Daily Volume 45,480 English (positive surprise) and 24% yoy in Hindi, 2) 6% yoy growth in circulation Face Value (Rs) 2.0 revenues, 3) 39% yoy jump in radio revenues, and 4) 410bp OPM expansion driven by 520bp gross margin expansion. We have revised our estimates: 1) BSE Sensex 17,957 revenue by 4-6% to account for higher ad revenues, and 2) OPM by 75–95bp to Nifty 5,398 reflect significant gross margin expansion. We maintain a Buy on the stock. Reuters Code HTML.BO Ad revenues drive top-line, benign newsprint cost aid margins: HTML posted Bloomberg Code HTML@IN top-line growth of 22% yoy to Rs403cr (Rs330cr), aided by 22% yoy growth in advertising revenue to Rs329cr (Hindustan contributed to Rs96cr) and 6% yoy growth in circulation revenues to Rs47cr (Hindustan contributed to Rs32cr). In Shareholding Pattern (%) terms of earnings, the company posted 43.5% yoy growth to Rs40cr (Rs28cr) on a recurring basis despite the spike in tax rate (up 470bp yoy), depreciation cost (up Promoters 68.8 11% yoy) and 47% yoy decline in other income, aided by significant margin MF /Banks /Indian FIs 16.0 expansion of 410bp yoy (driven largely by 520bp gross margin expansion), FII /NRIs /OCBs 15.7 strong top-line growth and 19% yoy decrease in interest cost. Indian Public /Others 3.2 Outlook and Valuation: HTML continued to show resilience in its new businesses this quarter (radio and internet gained traction). Moreover, aggressive cost-rationalisation in the radio business (continues to be EBITDA positive), Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr trickle–down effect of higher revenue traction and benign newsprint price environment (factoring in ~10% rise during FY2010-12E) will help HTML post Sensex 3.3 17.1 17.9 higher margins (~20%+) during FY2011-12E. At the CMP of Rs158, HTML is HTML 13.3 42.4 (31.1) trading at 17x FY2012E revised consolidated EPS of Rs9.3. Owing to the significant improvement in profitability of its growing businesses and up-tick in advertising revenues, we maintain a Buy on the stock, with a revised Target Price of Rs186 (Rs182), based on P/E multiple of 20x on FY2012E earnings. Key Financials (Consolidated) Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 1,347 1,413 1,741 2,014 % chg 11.9 4.9 23.2 15.7 Net Profit (Adj) 20.0 143.5 178.9 218.9 % chg (80.3) 617.3 24.7 22.4 EBITDA (%) 6.5 18.1 19.8 20.3 EPS (Rs) 0.9 6.1 7.6 9.3 Anand Shah P/E (x) 185.5 25.9 20.8 17.0 022-4040 3800-334 P/BV (x) 4.4 3.8 3.3 2.8 anand.shah@angeltrade.com RoE (%) 2.4 15.8 16.9 17.6 1.6 14.5 19.2 21.3 Chitrangda Kapur RoCE (%) 022-4040 3800-323 EV/Sales (x) 3.0 2.8 2.2 1.8 chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com EV/EBITDA (x) 45.8 15.4 11.2 9.0 Source: Company, Angel Research Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
  • 2. HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update Exhibit 1: Quarterly Performance (Consolidated) Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 % yoy 4QFY10 % qoq FY2010 FY2009 % chg Net Sales 402.8 329.6 22.2 374.3 7.6 1,412.9 1,346.6 4.9 Consumption of RM 130.3 123.7 5.3 115.5 12.8 476.0 558.8 (14.8) (% of Sales) 32.3 37.5 30.9 33.7 41.5 Staff Costs 74.9 64.6 16.0 63.1 18.8 252.0 241.9 4.2 (% of Sales) 18.6 19.6 16.8 17.8 18.0 Advertising 28.5 19.5 46.2 27.0 5.5 115.9 154.1 (24.8) (% of Sales) 7.1 5.9 7.2 8.2 11.4 Other Expenses 90.5 71.0 27.6 86.6 4.5 313.7 303.9 3.2 (% of Sales) 22.5 21.5 23.1 22.2 22.6 Total Expenditure 324.3 278.8 16.3 292.2 11.0 1,157.5 1,258.7 (8.0) Operating Profit 78.6 50.8 54.8 82.1 (4.3) 255.4 87.9 190.6 OPM (%) 19.5 15.4 21.9 18.1 6.5 Interest 6.4 7.9 (18.7) 7.1 (9.7) 29.5 32.3 (8.6) Depreciation 19.4 17.5 11.1 18.1 7.5 70.7 68.8 2.7 Other Income 7.2 13.6 (47.4) 15.3 (53.2) 40.9 33.1 23.7 PBT (excl. Ext Items) 59.9 39.0 53.5 72.3 (17.1) 196.1 19.8 888.3 Ext Income/(Expense) - - (1.5) (7.6) (19.1) PBT (incl. Ext Items) 59.9 39.0 53.47 70.8 188.5 0.7 - (% of Sales) 14.9 11.8 18.9 13.3 0.1 Provision for Taxation 19.8 11.1 78.6 22.2 (11.2) 53.7 12.5 329.5 (% of PBT) 33.0 28.3 31.4 28.5 1,679.2 Recurring PAT 40.2 28.0 43.5 50.0 (19.8) 142.4 7.4 1,837.7 PATM (%) 10.0 8.5 13.4 10.1 0.5 Minority Interest (1.2) (0.7) 0.6 (1.1) (12.7) Reported PAT 41.4 28.7 44.1 48.0 (13.8) 135.9 0.9 - Equity shares (cr) 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 EPS (Rs) 1.8 1.2 44.1 2.0 (13.8) 5.8 0.0 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 2: Revenue Highlights (Consolidated) Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 % yoy Consolidated sales 402.8 329.6 22.2 Hindi 132.8 110.4 20.3 English 270.0 219.2 23.2 Advertising 328.6 269.4 22.0 Hindi 96.3 77.9 23.6 English 232.3 191.5 21.3 Circulation 46.8 44.4 5.4 Hindi 32.3 31.1 4.0 English 14.5 13.3 8.7 Radio 12.3 8.8 39.3 Internet 2.0 0.7 170.3 Core revenue 389.7 323.4 20.5 Others 13.1 6.2 112.8   Source: Company, Angel Research July 28, 2010 2
  • 3. HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update Top-line growth at 22% led by ~20%+ growth in both English and Hindi HT Media posted strong top-line growth of 22.2% yoy to Rs403cr (Rs330cr), on a consolidated basis, driven by 21% yoy growth in English (key positive surprise) and 24% yoy growth in Hindi (led by UP expansion). Circulation revenues recorded 6% yoy growth to Rs47cr (Hindustan contributed to Rs32cr). Other highlight of the quarter included foray of HTML in Gujarat with the launch of Mint in Ahmedabad. Exhibit 3: Strong growth in top-line aided by up-tick in ad revenues 450 403 400 359 374 344 338 350 350 330 300 250 (Rs cr) 200 150 100 50 - 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 4: English/ Hindi Ad-rev. up 21%, 24% yoy resp. Exhibit 5: Circulation rev. exhibit flat yoy growth 329 25 302 52 35 282 286 300 269 20 50 30 15 48 25 200 10 (Rs cr) 46 20 (Rs cr) (%) (%) 5 44 51 15 48 47 100 - 42 43 10 44 (5) 40 5 - (10) 38 - 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 Ad Revenue (LHS) YoY growth (RHS) Circ Revenue (LHS) YoY growth (RHS) Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research Amongst the segments, the new businesses registered significant revenue traction. The radio business (merged in 4QFY2009) reported robust top-line growth of 39% yoy to Rs12.3cr (Rs8.8cr) on increased advertising, while the internet business contributed Rs2cr to revenues, as Shine.com registered 5mn+ users. Management indicated the commencement of two presses for the Burda joint venture (JV), while no guidance was given regarding the revenue traction from Burda this quarter. Going ahead, we expect the Burda JV to contribute ~Rs60cr to top-line in FY2011 (in line with management’s guidance of Rs60-70cr top-line). July 28, 2010 3
  • 4. HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update Bumper earnings, despite jump in tax rate and decline in other income In terms of earnings, HT Media posted robust growth of 43.5% yoy to Rs40cr (Rs28cr) on a recurring basis, and 44.1% yoy growth to Rs41cr (Rs29cr) on reported basis, despite the spike in tax rate (up 470bp yoy), depreciation cost (up 11% yoy) and 47% yoy decline in other income, aided by significant margin expansion, strong growth in top-line and 19% yoy decrease in interest cost. Moreover, losses in the radio business and internet business have reduced. Exhibit 6: Expect NPM to sustain at ~10% for FY11 Exhibit 7: Higher gross margins drive OPM expansion 50 16 80.0 69.1 68.4 67.7 14 62.5 64.7 40 59.8 12 56.5 30 10 60.0 (Rs cr) 8 (%) 20 6 10 4 40.0 (%) 2 18.8 21.9 19.5 - 15.4 16.6 - (10) (2) 20.0 5.7 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 (6.1) - 3QFY09 1QFY10 3QFY10 1QFY11 (20.0) Recurring PAT (LHS) NPM (RHS) OPM Gross Margins Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research Significant gross margin expansion drives OPM, up by 410bp At the operating level, HTML posted 410bp yoy expansion in OPM, driving 55% yoy growth in EBITDA to Rs79cr, aided by significant 520bp yoy expansion in gross margins (benign newsprint prices). Currently, the company’s average cost for newsprint stands at Rs28,250/MT. However, the company re-invested the gains in higher ad expenses (up 46% yoy, due to increased competitive scenario in Bihar/Jharkhand with the entry of DB Corp), and other expenses (up 28%), limiting further margin expansion. At the EBIT level, radio reported a loss of Rs1.2cr (loss of Rs2.7cr), while the internet business reported a loss Rs8.7cr (loss of Rs9.5cr). Exhibit 8: Segmental Performance (Consolidated) Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 % chg FY2010 FY2009 % chg Revenue Printing 391.9 327.7 19.6 1,396.7 1,338.2 4.4 Radio 12.3 8.8 39.3 43.1 28.3 52.0 Internet 2.0 0.7 170.3 5.6 1.0 450.0 Total Revenue 406.2 337.2 20.5 1,445.4 1,367.5 5.7 Less: Inter segment 2.0 0.6 7.5 8.5 Less: Other Op Inc 1.4 7.1 24.9 12.5 Total Net sales 402.8 329.6 22.2 1,412.9 1,346.6 4.9 EBIT Printing 77.7 54.4 42.9 262.1 130.5 100.9 Radio (1.2) (2.7) (5.9) (41.5) Internet (8.7) (9.5) (37.8) (51.0) Total EBIT 67.7 42.1 60.8 218.4 38.0 474.3 EBIT Margin (%) 16.7 12.5 419bp 15.1 2.8 Source: Company, Angel Research July 28, 2010 4
  • 5. HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update Investment Rationale Incremental growth in ad-revenue, Burda JV to scale up top-line: HTML has recorded a rebound in the English ad-revenue this quarter, with a yoy growth of 21% on account of improved yield (~10–12% improvement) as ad-rate hikes get absorbed. With the up-tick in the economy, we estimate this growth in ad-revenue to sustain, with the English (HT Times and Mint) and Hindi print businesses (HMVL), posting a CAGR of 15.9% and 23.8% over FY2010–12E respectively. While Hindustan’s ad-revenue will grow maximum in UP (we peg a CAGR of ~29% over FY2010–12E), HT Mumbai will be the maximum growth driver for the English print’s ad-revenue (we peg a CAGR of ~17% over FY2010–12E). Moreover, FY2011 will be the first full operational year for the Burda JV and we estimate it to contribute ~Rs60cr in top-line in FY2011(in line with management’s guidance of Rs60-70cr top-line contribution) Resilience in new business to continue, expect OPM of ~20%+ in FY11/FY12E: In terms of operating performance, HTML continues to show resilience in its new businesses this quarter (radio and internet gained traction). Moreover, aggressive cost-rationalisation in the radio business (continues to be EBITDA positive), trickle-down effect of higher revenue traction and benign newsprint price environment (factoring in ~10% rise during FY2010-12E) will help HTML post higher margins (~20%+) during FY2011-12E. Balance sheet to remain healthy, we peg cash to swell to Rs175cr in FY2012E: HTML has shown significant turnaround in the net working capital in FY2010, with improvement in both inventory turnover and debtor turnover. Going forward, in our FY2011E and FY2012E estimates, we expect the company to sustain its negative working capital cycle, thus adding to its cash surplus. As of FY2010, HTML recorded ~Rs109cr of cash on its books, which we peg it to swell to Rs175cr by FY2012E. Hence, we believe that HTML is extremely well placed in terms of funding its expansion plans and continuing investing in its growing business, owing to low debt: equity of ~0.2x and low working capital requirement. Outlook and Valuation Post the strong 1QFY2011 results, we have revised our estimates: 1) revenue revised upwards by 4-6% to account for a bounce back in ad-revenues particularly for the English print business and incremental growth from Burda JV (FY2011 is the first full year of operation for the company), and 2) OPM revised upwards by 75–95bp to account for significant gross margin expansion. Exhibit 9: Change in estimates Parameter Old Estimate New Estimate % chg (Rs cr) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E Revenue 1,668 1,906 1,741 2,014 4.3 5.7 OPM (%) 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.3 78bp 93bp EPS (Rs) 7.6 9.1 7.6 9.3 0.2 2.4 Source: Company, Angel Research At Rs158, HTML is trading at 17x FY2012E revised consolidated EPS of Rs9.3. Owing to the significant improvement in profitability of its growing businesses and up-tick in advertising revenues, we maintain a Buy on the stock, with a revised Target Price of Rs186 (Rs182), based on a P/E multiple of 20x FY2012E. Downside risks to our estimates include – 1) sharp rise in newsprint prices, 2) increased competitive intensity (HTML has already reacted to the entry of DB Corp. in Bihar/Jharkhand by slashing its cover price to Rs2 in Ranchi), and 3) Higher-than- expected losses or re-investment in growing businesses (Radio, Mint and Internet). July 28, 2010 5
  • 6. HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update Exhibit 10: Key Assumptions-Revenue (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E #CAGR Advt Revenues 1,133 1,141 1,378 1,589 18.0 HT Times/ Mint 890 844 1,002 1,134 15.9 Hindustan 244 297 376 455 23.8 Circ Revenues 154 183 195 217 8.8 HT Times/ Mint 49 63 65 71 6.4 Hindustan 105 121 130 146 10.0 Radio Revenues 29 41 63 75 34.9 Burda JV - 5 60 85 297.5 Others 30 42 44 49 7.4 Total Revenue 1,347 1,413 1,741 2,014 19.4 YoY growth (%) Advt Revenues 11.9 0.7 20.8 15.3 HT Times/ Mint 5.0 (5.1) 18.6 13.3 Hindustan 47.7 21.5 26.9 20.8 Circ Revenues 2.5 19.0 6.5 11.1 HT Times/ Mint (7.5) 27.6 4.4 8.4 Hindustan 8.0 15.0 7.6 12.5 Radio Revenues 54.3 42.1 52.9 19.0 Burda JV 1,015.2 41.7 Others 39.4 39.8 5.3 9.6 % of Total Advt revenue 84.2 80.8 79.2 78.9 Circ Revenues 11.4 13.0 11.2 10.8 Radio Revenues 2.2 2.9 3.6 3.7 Burda JV - 0.4 3.4 4.2 Others 2.2 3.0 2.5 2.4 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: # CAGR is between FY2010-12E Exhibit 11: Peer Valuation Company Reco Mcap CMP TP Upside P/E (x) EV/Sales (x) RoE (%) CAGR # (Rs cr) (Rs) (Rs) (%) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E Sales PAT HT Media Buy 3,722 158 186 17.7 20.8 17.0 2.2 1.8 16.9 17.6 19.4 23.5 Jagran Buy 3,708 123 160 30.0 18.7 15.5 3.4 2.9 31.0 34.3 15.7 16.2 DCHL Buy 3,204 132 193 46.2 10.6 9.1 2.8 2.3 19.7 20.2 14.4 14.6 ^ # Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: denotes consensus data, denotes CAGR for FY2010-12E Exhibit 12: Angel v/s Consensus estimates Top-line (Rs cr) FY2011E FY2012E EPS (Rs) FY2011E FY2012E Angel estimates 1,741 2,014 Angel estimates 7.6 9.3 Consensus 1,647 1,838 Consensus 7.8 9.4 Diff (%) 5.7 9.6 Diff (%) (2.6) (1.1) Source: Company, Angel Research July 28, 2010 6
  • 7. HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) Rs crore Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Gross sales 1,040 1,203 1,347 1,413 1,741 2,014 Less: Excise duty - - - - - - Net Sales 1,040 1,203 1,347 1,413 1,741 2,014 Total operating income 1,040 1,203 1,347 1,413 1,741 2,014 % chg 26.1 15.7 11.9 4.9 23.2 15.7 Total Expenditure 871 1,033 1,259 1,158 1,396 1,605 Cost of Materials 465 497 595 515 609 712 SG&A 206 289 354 318 395 450 Personnel 160 198 242 252 305 346 Others 41 49 68 72 87 97 EBITDA 169 170 88 255 344 410 % chg 41.8 0.7 (48.3) 190.6 34.8 18.9 (% of Net Sales) 16.2 14.1 6.5 18.1 19.8 20.3 Depreciation& Amortisation 44 57 69 71 83 93 EBIT 125 113 19 185 261 317 % chg 57.7 (9.7) (83.1) 868.5 41.4 21.2 (% of Net Sales) 12.0 9.4 1.4 13.1 15.0 15.7 Interest & other Charges 15 18 32 30 19 14 Other Income 37 44 33 41 37 41 (% of PBT) 25.0 31.6 166.6 20.9 13.2 11.9 Share in profit of Associates - - - - - - Recurring PBT 147 139 20 196 279 343 % chg 78.1 (5.3) (85.7) 888.4 42.4 23.0 Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) (0) - 19 8 - - PBT (reported) 147 139 1 188 279 343 Tax 55 38 12 54 84 103 (% of PBT) 37.2 27.1 62.9 27.4 30.0 30.0 PAT (reported) 92 101 (12) 135 195 240 Add: Share of associates - - - - - - Less: Minority interest (MI) (5) 0 (13) (1) 17 21 PAT after MI (reported) 97 101 1 136 179 219 ADJ. PAT 97 101 20 144 179 219 % chg 64.4 4.6 (80.3) 617.3 24.7 22.4 (% of Net Sales) 9.3 8.4 1.5 10.2 10.3 10.9 Basic EPS (Rs) 4.1 4.3 0.9 6.1 7.6 9.3 Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 4.1 4.3 0.9 6.1 7.6 9.3 % chg 63.9 4.6 (80.3) 617.3 24.7 22.4 July 28, 2010 7
  • 8. HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update Balance Sheet (Consolidated) Rs crore Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 47 47 47 47 47 47 Preference Capital - - - - - - Reserves& Surplus 717 806 802 924 1,095 1,305 Shareholders Funds 764 853 849 971 1,142 1,352 Minority Interest 0 0 (7) 22 38 60 Total Loans 166 223 371 313 198 148 Deferred Tax Liability 27 12 21 18 18 18 Total Liabilities 957 1,088 1,233 1,323 1,395 1,578 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 614 701 823 1,033 1,221 1,366 Less: Acc. Depreciation 124 177 247 322 405 498 Net Block 490 524 576 712 817 868 Capital Work-in-Progress 31 59 196 129 147 164 Goodwill - - - - - - Investments 229 266 304 475 475 475 Current Assets 418 520 698 670 774 982 Cash 110 77 71 109 75 175 Loans & Advances 56 129 232 200 252 292 Other 252 314 396 362 446 515 Current liabilities 211 280 540 666 817 912 Net Current Assets 207 240 158 5 (43) 70 Misc Exp 0 0 - 2 - - Total Assets 957 1,088 1,233 1,323 1,395 1,578 July 28, 2010 8
  • 9. HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) Rs crore Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Profit before tax 147 139 1 189 279 343 Depreciation 44 57 69 71 83 93 Change in Working Capital (22) (19) 132 155 24 (12) Interest / Dividend (Net) (0) (11) 12 15 3 (3) Direct taxes paid 55 60 20 41 84 103 Others 9 3 5 (3) (5) (2) Cash Flow from Operations 123 110 198 386 300 316 (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (86) (120) (259) (156) (206) (162) (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (189) (62) (82) (133) 0 0 Cash Flow from Investing (275) (182) (341) (290) (206) (162) Issue of Equity (16) 0 0 (2) 0 0 Inc./(Dec.) in loans (4) 57 149 (49) (115) (50) Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 7 8 11 8 10 8 Interest / Dividend (Net) (5) 10 2 (1) 3 (3) Cash Flow from Financing (21) 39 136 (59) (128) (55) Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (173) (33) (7) 38 (33) 99 Opening Cash balances 281 110 77 71 109 75 Closing Cash balances 107 77 71 109 75 175 July 28, 2010 9
  • 10. HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update Key Ratios Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 38.3 36.6 185.5 25.9 20.8 17.0 P/CEPS 26.4 23.4 41.8 17.4 14.2 11.9 P/BV 4.9 4.4 4.4 3.8 3.3 2.8 Dividend yield (%) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 EV/Sales 3.6 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.2 1.8 EV/EBITDA 22.4 22.8 45.8 15.4 11.2 9.0 EV / Total Assets 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.3 Per Share Data (Rs) EPS (Basic) 4.1 4.3 0.9 6.1 7.6 9.3 EPS (fully diluted) 4.1 4.3 0.9 6.1 7.6 9.3 Cash EPS 6.0 6.8 3.8 9.1 11.1 13.3 DPS 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 Book Value 32.6 36.4 36.2 41.3 48.6 57.6 Dupont analysis EBIT margin 12.0 9.4 1.4 13.1 15.0 15.7 Tax retention ratio 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 Asset turnover (x) 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.3 ROIC (Post-tax) 13.2 12.1 0.9 16.8 23.1 25.0 Cost of Debt (Post-tax) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Leverage (x) (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.3) (0.3) Operating ROE 10.3 9.9 0.8 14.4 16.3 16.5 Returns (%) RoCE 13.5 11.0 1.6 14.5 19.2 21.3 Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) 12.7 11.0 0.8 18.2 21.6 23.9 RoE 13.3 12.5 2.4 15.8 16.9 17.6 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 Inventory / Sales (days) 36.2 35.0 47.6 31.0 31.7 32.4 Receivables (days) 52.1 60.2 59.6 62.6 61.9 60.8 Payables (days) 67.0 77.6 141.7 164.7 162.6 156.7 Net Working capital (days) 34.0 49.2 23.6 (26.8) (24.9) (19.0) Solvency ratios (x) Net Debt to equity (0.2) (0.1) (0.0) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) Net Debt to EBITDA (1.0) (0.7) (0.0) (1.1) (1.0) (1.2) Interest Coverage 8.4 6.3 0.6 6.3 13.9 22.6 July 28, 2010 10
  • 11. HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com Disclaimer This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Disclosure of Interest Statement HTML 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%) July 28, 2010 11