HT Media reported strong results for 1QFY2011 with revenues growing 22% year-over-year to Rs. 402.8 crore, driven by growth in advertising, circulation, radio, and internet revenues. Operating profits grew 55% to Rs. 78.6 crore due to a 410 basis point expansion in operating margins to 19.5% on the back of a 520 basis point increase in gross margins. Net profits increased 43.5% to Rs. 40.2 crore despite a rise in taxes and fall in other income, aided by top-line growth and lower interest costs. The company continued to see traction in its new businesses such as radio and internet.
1. 1QFY2011 Result Update | Media
July 28, 2010
HT Media BUY
CMP Rs158
Performance Highlights Target Price Rs186
(Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 % yoy 4QFY10 %qoq Investment Period 12 months
Revenue 402.8 329.6 22.2 374.3 7.6
EBITDA 78.6 50.8 54.8 82.1 (4.3) Stock Info
OPM (%) 19.5 15.4 410bp 21.9 (243bp) Sector Media
PAT 40.2 28.0 43.5 50.0 (19.8) Market Cap (Rs cr) 3,722
Source: Company, Angel Research Beta 0.8
52 Week High / Low 174/100
HT Media (HTML) posted robust numbers on both revenue and profitability fronts.
Key highlights include: 1) overall growth of 22% yoy in ad revenue - 21% yoy in Avg. Daily Volume 45,480
English (positive surprise) and 24% yoy in Hindi, 2) 6% yoy growth in circulation Face Value (Rs) 2.0
revenues, 3) 39% yoy jump in radio revenues, and 4) 410bp OPM expansion
driven by 520bp gross margin expansion. We have revised our estimates: 1) BSE Sensex 17,957
revenue by 4-6% to account for higher ad revenues, and 2) OPM by 75–95bp to Nifty 5,398
reflect significant gross margin expansion. We maintain a Buy on the stock.
Reuters Code HTML.BO
Ad revenues drive top-line, benign newsprint cost aid margins: HTML posted Bloomberg Code HTML@IN
top-line growth of 22% yoy to Rs403cr (Rs330cr), aided by 22% yoy growth in
advertising revenue to Rs329cr (Hindustan contributed to Rs96cr) and 6% yoy
growth in circulation revenues to Rs47cr (Hindustan contributed to Rs32cr). In Shareholding Pattern (%)
terms of earnings, the company posted 43.5% yoy growth to Rs40cr (Rs28cr) on a
recurring basis despite the spike in tax rate (up 470bp yoy), depreciation cost (up Promoters 68.8
11% yoy) and 47% yoy decline in other income, aided by significant margin MF /Banks /Indian FIs 16.0
expansion of 410bp yoy (driven largely by 520bp gross margin expansion),
FII /NRIs /OCBs 15.7
strong top-line growth and 19% yoy decrease in interest cost.
Indian Public /Others 3.2
Outlook and Valuation: HTML continued to show resilience in its new businesses
this quarter (radio and internet gained traction). Moreover, aggressive
cost-rationalisation in the radio business (continues to be EBITDA positive),
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
trickle–down effect of higher revenue traction and benign newsprint price
environment (factoring in ~10% rise during FY2010-12E) will help HTML post Sensex 3.3 17.1 17.9
higher margins (~20%+) during FY2011-12E. At the CMP of Rs158, HTML is HTML 13.3 42.4 (31.1)
trading at 17x FY2012E revised consolidated EPS of Rs9.3. Owing to the
significant improvement in profitability of its growing businesses and up-tick in
advertising revenues, we maintain a Buy on the stock, with a revised Target Price
of Rs186 (Rs182), based on P/E multiple of 20x on FY2012E earnings.
Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 1,347 1,413 1,741 2,014
% chg 11.9 4.9 23.2 15.7
Net Profit (Adj) 20.0 143.5 178.9 218.9
% chg (80.3) 617.3 24.7 22.4
EBITDA (%) 6.5 18.1 19.8 20.3
EPS (Rs) 0.9 6.1 7.6 9.3 Anand Shah
P/E (x) 185.5 25.9 20.8 17.0 022-4040 3800-334
P/BV (x) 4.4 3.8 3.3 2.8 anand.shah@angeltrade.com
RoE (%) 2.4 15.8 16.9 17.6
1.6 14.5 19.2 21.3 Chitrangda Kapur
RoCE (%)
022-4040 3800-323
EV/Sales (x) 3.0 2.8 2.2 1.8
chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com
EV/EBITDA (x) 45.8 15.4 11.2 9.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
3. HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update
Top-line growth at 22% led by ~20%+ growth in both English and Hindi
HT Media posted strong top-line growth of 22.2% yoy to Rs403cr (Rs330cr), on a
consolidated basis, driven by 21% yoy growth in English (key positive surprise) and
24% yoy growth in Hindi (led by UP expansion). Circulation revenues recorded 6%
yoy growth to Rs47cr (Hindustan contributed to Rs32cr). Other highlight of the
quarter included foray of HTML in Gujarat with the launch of Mint in Ahmedabad.
Exhibit 3: Strong growth in top-line aided by up-tick in ad revenues
450 403
400 359 374
344 338 350
350 330
300
250
(Rs cr)
200
150
100
50
-
3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: English/ Hindi Ad-rev. up 21%, 24% yoy resp. Exhibit 5: Circulation rev. exhibit flat yoy growth
329 25
302 52 35
282 286
300 269 20 50 30
15 48 25
200 10
(Rs cr)
46 20
(Rs cr)
(%)
(%)
5 44 51 15
48 47
100 - 42 43 10
44
(5) 40 5
- (10) 38 -
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
Ad Revenue (LHS) YoY growth (RHS) Circ Revenue (LHS) YoY growth (RHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research
Amongst the segments, the new businesses registered significant revenue traction.
The radio business (merged in 4QFY2009) reported robust top-line growth of 39%
yoy to Rs12.3cr (Rs8.8cr) on increased advertising, while the internet business
contributed Rs2cr to revenues, as Shine.com registered 5mn+ users.
Management indicated the commencement of two presses for the Burda joint venture
(JV), while no guidance was given regarding the revenue traction from Burda this
quarter. Going ahead, we expect the Burda JV to contribute ~Rs60cr to top-line in
FY2011 (in line with management’s guidance of Rs60-70cr top-line).
July 28, 2010 3
4. HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update
Bumper earnings, despite jump in tax rate and decline in other income
In terms of earnings, HT Media posted robust growth of 43.5% yoy to Rs40cr
(Rs28cr) on a recurring basis, and 44.1% yoy growth to Rs41cr (Rs29cr) on reported
basis, despite the spike in tax rate (up 470bp yoy), depreciation cost (up 11% yoy)
and 47% yoy decline in other income, aided by significant margin expansion, strong
growth in top-line and 19% yoy decrease in interest cost. Moreover, losses in the
radio business and internet business have reduced.
Exhibit 6: Expect NPM to sustain at ~10% for FY11 Exhibit 7: Higher gross margins drive OPM expansion
50 16 80.0 69.1
68.4 67.7
14 62.5 64.7
40 59.8
12 56.5
30 10 60.0
(Rs cr)
8
(%)
20
6
10 4 40.0
(%)
2 18.8 21.9 19.5
- 15.4 16.6
-
(10) (2) 20.0
5.7
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
(6.1)
-
3QFY09 1QFY10 3QFY10 1QFY11
(20.0)
Recurring PAT (LHS) NPM (RHS) OPM Gross Margins
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research
Significant gross margin expansion drives OPM, up by 410bp
At the operating level, HTML posted 410bp yoy expansion in OPM, driving 55% yoy
growth in EBITDA to Rs79cr, aided by significant 520bp yoy expansion in gross
margins (benign newsprint prices). Currently, the company’s average cost for
newsprint stands at Rs28,250/MT. However, the company re-invested the gains in
higher ad expenses (up 46% yoy, due to increased competitive scenario in
Bihar/Jharkhand with the entry of DB Corp), and other expenses (up 28%), limiting
further margin expansion. At the EBIT level, radio reported a loss of Rs1.2cr (loss of
Rs2.7cr), while the internet business reported a loss Rs8.7cr (loss of Rs9.5cr).
Exhibit 8: Segmental Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 % chg FY2010 FY2009 % chg
Revenue
Printing 391.9 327.7 19.6 1,396.7 1,338.2 4.4
Radio 12.3 8.8 39.3 43.1 28.3 52.0
Internet 2.0 0.7 170.3 5.6 1.0 450.0
Total Revenue 406.2 337.2 20.5 1,445.4 1,367.5 5.7
Less: Inter segment 2.0 0.6 7.5 8.5
Less: Other Op Inc 1.4 7.1 24.9 12.5
Total Net sales 402.8 329.6 22.2 1,412.9 1,346.6 4.9
EBIT
Printing 77.7 54.4 42.9 262.1 130.5 100.9
Radio (1.2) (2.7) (5.9) (41.5)
Internet (8.7) (9.5) (37.8) (51.0)
Total EBIT 67.7 42.1 60.8 218.4 38.0 474.3
EBIT Margin (%) 16.7 12.5 419bp 15.1 2.8
Source: Company, Angel Research
July 28, 2010 4
5. HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update
Investment Rationale
Incremental growth in ad-revenue, Burda JV to scale up top-line: HTML has
recorded a rebound in the English ad-revenue this quarter, with a yoy growth of
21% on account of improved yield (~10–12% improvement) as ad-rate hikes get
absorbed. With the up-tick in the economy, we estimate this growth in
ad-revenue to sustain, with the English (HT Times and Mint) and Hindi print
businesses (HMVL), posting a CAGR of 15.9% and 23.8% over FY2010–12E
respectively. While Hindustan’s ad-revenue will grow maximum in UP (we peg a
CAGR of ~29% over FY2010–12E), HT Mumbai will be the maximum growth
driver for the English print’s ad-revenue (we peg a CAGR of ~17% over
FY2010–12E). Moreover, FY2011 will be the first full operational year for the
Burda JV and we estimate it to contribute ~Rs60cr in top-line in FY2011(in line
with management’s guidance of Rs60-70cr top-line contribution)
Resilience in new business to continue, expect OPM of ~20%+ in FY11/FY12E:
In terms of operating performance, HTML continues to show resilience in its new
businesses this quarter (radio and internet gained traction). Moreover,
aggressive cost-rationalisation in the radio business (continues to be EBITDA
positive), trickle-down effect of higher revenue traction and benign newsprint
price environment (factoring in ~10% rise during FY2010-12E) will help HTML
post higher margins (~20%+) during FY2011-12E.
Balance sheet to remain healthy, we peg cash to swell to Rs175cr in FY2012E:
HTML has shown significant turnaround in the net working capital in FY2010,
with improvement in both inventory turnover and debtor turnover. Going
forward, in our FY2011E and FY2012E estimates, we expect the company to
sustain its negative working capital cycle, thus adding to its cash surplus. As of
FY2010, HTML recorded ~Rs109cr of cash on its books, which we peg it to swell
to Rs175cr by FY2012E. Hence, we believe that HTML is extremely well placed in
terms of funding its expansion plans and continuing investing in its growing
business, owing to low debt: equity of ~0.2x and low working capital
requirement.
Outlook and Valuation
Post the strong 1QFY2011 results, we have revised our estimates: 1) revenue revised
upwards by 4-6% to account for a bounce back in ad-revenues particularly for the
English print business and incremental growth from Burda JV (FY2011 is the first full
year of operation for the company), and 2) OPM revised upwards by 75–95bp to
account for significant gross margin expansion.
Exhibit 9: Change in estimates
Parameter Old Estimate New Estimate % chg
(Rs cr) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E
Revenue 1,668 1,906 1,741 2,014 4.3 5.7
OPM (%) 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.3 78bp 93bp
EPS (Rs) 7.6 9.1 7.6 9.3 0.2 2.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
At Rs158, HTML is trading at 17x FY2012E revised consolidated EPS of Rs9.3. Owing
to the significant improvement in profitability of its growing businesses and up-tick in
advertising revenues, we maintain a Buy on the stock, with a revised Target Price of
Rs186 (Rs182), based on a P/E multiple of 20x FY2012E.
Downside risks to our estimates include – 1) sharp rise in newsprint prices, 2)
increased competitive intensity (HTML has already reacted to the entry of DB Corp.
in Bihar/Jharkhand by slashing its cover price to Rs2 in Ranchi), and 3) Higher-than-
expected losses or re-investment in growing businesses (Radio, Mint and Internet).
July 28, 2010 5
11. HT Media|1QFY2011 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement HTML
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
July 28, 2010 11