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4QFY2010 Result Update I Consumer Durables
                                                                                                                              May 28, 2010

`

      Bajaj Electricals                                                                       NEUTRAL
                                                                                              CMP                                   Rs203
      Performance Highlights                                                                  Target Price                              -

      For 4QFY2010, Bajaj Electricals recorded a strong 19.3% yoy growth in                   Investment Period                          -
      Top-line to Rs784cr (Rs657cr), which was slightly ahead of our estimates.
      Top-line growth was primarily driven by the strong growth registered by the             Stock Info
      Consumer Durables Division. OPM also exceeded our estimates, though it
                                                                                              Sector                        Cons. Durables
      fell from 12.4% in 4QFY2009 to 11.8% in 4QFY2010. However, the
      company paid additional taxes with regard to certain disallowances for the              Market Cap (Rs cr)                    1,981
      past three years. Besides, loans worth Rs5.0cr extended to Hind Lamps, in
      which the company holds 50%, were written off during the quarter. As a                  Beta                                     0.7
      result, Net Profit declined 21.1% yoy to Rs37cr. The company’s carry forward            52 WK High / Low                     240/70
      Order Book stood at Rs932cr, which is better than management’s
      expectations. The stock is currently trading at 10.1x FY2012E Earnings,                 Avg. Daily Volume                    77,197
      factoring in most of the visible growth. We recommend a Neutral on the                  Face Value (Rs)                           2
      stock.
                                                                                              BSE Sensex                           16,683
      Strong Growth in Top-line: The company displayed strong growth
                                                                                              Nifty                                 5,067
      momentum in Sales during the quarter, especially in the Consumer Durables
      Division, which registered 35.6% yoy growth in 4QFY2010. However, the                   Reuters Code                         BJEL.BO
      E&P Division grew by a mere 7.7% yoy, which restricted overall growth
                                                                                              Bloomberg Code                       BJE@IN
      numbers to 19.3%. However, the E&P Division grew 41.1% in FY2010 over
      FY2009. OPM of the Consumer Durables Division followed the strong                       Shareholding Pattern (%)
      Revenue growth and remained firm at 13.3%.
                                                                                              Promoters                               65.7
      Outlook and Valuation                                                                   MF/Banks/Indian FIs                     18.0

      We maintain our strong growth outlook for the company going forward,                    FII/NRIs/OCBs                            4.3
      based on a comfortable Order Book position and strong performance in all                Indian Public                           12.0
      the Divisions. Growth in the domestic economy is also expected to benefit
      the company immensely. Given the improved outlook and stronger Order                    Abs. (%)             3m        1yr        3yr
      Book, we have marginally revised upwards our Top-line estimates for
                                                                                              Sensex               2.6      18.0      17.1
      FY2011E and FY2012E. At current levels, the stock is trading at 12.6x and
      10.1x FY2011E and FY2012E Earnings, respectively, and factoring in most
                                                                                              Bajaj Elec.          4.5   164.0       281.3
      of the visible growth. Hence, we recommend a Neutral on the stock.

       Key Financials (Consolidated)
       Y/E March (Rs cr)              FY2009        FY2010E           FY2011E   FY2012E
       Net Sales                         1,766         2,229            2,690     3,242
       % chg                              28.0           26.2            20.7      20.5
       Net Profit                           89            125            161       201
       % chg                              22.2           40.2            28.5      24.9
       EBITDA Margin (%)                  10.2           10.9            10.3      10.5
       FDEPS (Rs)                         10.4           11.7            16.1      20.1
       P/E (x)                            19.6           17.3            12.6      10.1
       P/BV (x)                            7.2            4.0             3.2       2.6
       RoE (%)                            43.1           32.0            29.3      29.2
       RoACE (%)                          39.2           42.6            36.8      36.8
                                                                                            Jai Sharda
       EV/Sales (x)                        1.1            0.9             0.8       0.6
                                                                                            Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 305
       EV/EBITDA (x)                      10.6            8.3             7.3       6.1
                                                                                            E-mail: jai.sharda@angeltrade.com
       Source: Company, Angel Research




                                                                                                                                         1
    Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                           Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
Bajaj Electricals I 4QFY2010 Result Update



               Exhibit 1: 4QFY2010 Performance (Consolidated)
                Y/E March (Rs cr)         4QFY10    3QFY10     % chg    4QFY09   % chg    FY10    FY09     % chg
                                                               (qoq)              (yoy)
                Net Sales                     784       592     32.4       657    19.3    2,229   1,766     26.2
                Consumption of RM             608       419     45.1       491    23.7    1,652   1,315     25.7
                (% of Sales)                 77.5      70.7               74.8             74.1    74.5
                Staff Costs                  21.7      24.9    (13.0)     17.9    21.6     97.2    77.1     26.0
                (% of Sales)                  2.8       4.2                2.7              4.4     4.4
                Other Expenses               62.5      87.6    (28.6)     66.2    (5.5)   235.7   193.8     21.6
                (% of Sales)                  8.0      14.8               10.1             10.6    11.0
                Total Expenditure             692       531     30.2       575    20.2    1,985   1,586     25.2
                Operating Profit             92.3      60.8     51.7      81.8    12.8    243.4   179.8     35.3
                OPM (%)                      11.8      10.3               12.4             10.9    10.2
                Interest                      5.4       8.9    (39.1)      8.3   (34.1)    31.5    37.0    (14.9)
                Depreciation                  2.3       2.4     (3.8)      2.6   (11.6)     9.2     8.6      7.6
                Other Income                  0.9       1.1    (24.6)      3.7   (76.9)     2.9     5.7    (49.8)
                PBT (excl. Extr. Items)      85.4      50.7     68.6      74.7    14.4    205.6   140.0     46.9
                Extr. Income/(Expense)        5.0          -                 -              5.0        -
                PBT (incl. Extr. Items)      80.4      50.7     58.7      74.7     7.7    200.6   140.0     43.3
                (% of Sales)                 10.3       8.6               11.4              9.0     7.9
                Provision for Taxation       34.8      16.6    110.3      27.2    28.2     75.4    50.7     48.7
                (% of PBT)                   43.3      32.7               36.4             37.6    36.2
                Reported PAT                 45.6      34.1     33.7      47.5    (4.1)   125.3    89.4     40.2
                Prior Period Items            8.1      (0.0)               0.0              8.2    (0.0)
                PATM (%)                      5.8       5.8                7.2              5.6     5.1
                Equity shares (cr)            9.8       9.8                9.8              9.8     9.8
                EPS (Rs)                      3.9       3.5     12.1       4.9   (19.5)    12.8     9.2     40.2
                Adjusted PAT                 37.5      34.1      9.8      47.5   (21.1)   117.1    89.4     31.0
                Source: Company, Angel Research


                           Segment-wise Performance

                           The Lighting Division registered a decent 15.2% yoy increase in Sales for the quarter
                           to Rs179cr (Rs156cr). The growth in this segment came only from the Lighting
                           products, which registered 27% yoy growth. However, Luminaire sales were flat
                           during the quarter due to sluggish growth in the user industries of Retail, IT,
                           Construction, etc. EBIT of the Division stood at Rs16cr, implying EBIT Margin of
                           8.8%.

                           Consumer Durables Division registered a strong 35.6% yoy growth in Sales to
                           Rs315cr (Rs232cr) for 4QFY2010. EBIT of the Division came in at Rs42cr, while EBIT
                           Margin stood at 13.3%, a yoy improvement of 184bp.

                           The Engineering & Products Division posted 7.7% yoy growth to Rs290cr (Rs269cr).
                           EBIT of the Division came in at Rs28cr, while EBIT Margin stood at 9.8% for
                           4QFY2010. The main reason for the lower-than-expected EBIT Margins of the
                           Division was that the product mix was skewed towards low-Margin products.




May 28, 2010                                                                                                    2
Bajaj Electricals I 4QFY2010 Result Update


               Exhibit 2: Segment-wise Performance
               Y/E March                                 4QFY09       3QFY10        4QFY10         % chg       % chg
                                                                                                     qoq         yoy
               Total Revenue (Rs cr)
               A) Lighting                                155.7         149.6         179.3         19.9        15.2
               B) Consumer Durables                       232.4         253.7         315.1         24.2        35.6
               C) Engineering and Projects                268.9         188.6         289.6         53.6         7.7
               D) Others                                     0.2          0.3           0.2        (11.1)        4.3
               Total                                      657.2         592.1         784.2         32.4        19.3
               Less: Inter-Segmental Revenue                     -             -             -
               Net Sales                                  657.2         592.1         784.2         32.4        19.3
               EBIT Margin (%)
               A) Lighting                                  11.8          3.9           8.8       487bp     (301bp)
               B) Consumer Durables                         11.5         12.1          13.3       122bp      184bp
               C) Engineering and Projects                  13.3         11.9           9.8      (219bp)    (358bp)
               D) Others                                     8.7           26          16.7      (926bp)     797bp
               Source: Company, Angel Research

               One-time impact on Tax Front: The company received certain tax disallowances with
               respect to the Assessment Years of 2007-08, 2008-09 and 2009-10. The company
               paid these taxes in 4QFY2010. As a result, the company’s Bottom-line fell 21.1%
               yoy during the quarter to Rs37cr (Rs47cr). However, the company has made
               representations to the authorities to reclaim these taxes. During the quarter, the
               company also wrote-off loans worth Rs5cr made to Hind Lamps in which the
               company holds 50% stake.

               Other developments

               The company has announced final dividend of Rs2.4/share for FY2010 (120% of the
               Face Value).

               Outlook and Valuation

               We have revised upwards our Sales estimates for FY2011E and FY2012E by 3.9%
               and 5.3%, respectively. We have also raised OPM estimates to 10.3% and 10.5%
               from 10.1% and 10.2% for FY2011E and FY2012E, respectively. As a result, our
               EBITDA estimates now stand at Rs277cr and Rs340cr for FY2011E and FY2012E,
               respectively. However, due to the additional Debt required by the company to meet
               its increased working capital needs, interest cost is expected to rise.

               Exhibit 3: Revised Estimates
                Rs cr                              Old                     New                         % chg
                                         FY2011E       FY2012E       FY2011E       FY2012E       FY2011E    FY2012E
                Sales                        2,590       3,080         2,690         3,242           3.9         5.3
                EBITDA                           262      314           277           340            5.9         8.4
                EBITDA Margin (%)             10.1        10.2          10.3          10.5
                Interest                         4.4       1.8          24.1          24.1         448.1    1,239.6
                PAT                          163.5       202.3         161.0         201.2          (1.5)       (0.5)
               Source: Company, Angel Research

               The demand situation for the next few years remains strong for the company. Going
               ahead, things are expected to improve for its Luminaires business as well, as activity
               in the Retail, IT and Construction sectors improves. We expect the E&P Segment to
               continue to drive Top-line growth of the company. At the CMP, the stock is trading at
               12.6x and 10.1x FY2011E and FY2012E Earnings, respectively. Given the recent run
               up in stock price, we recommend a Neutral on the stock.
May 28, 2010                                                                                       3
Bajaj Electricals I 4QFY2010 Result Update


               Exhibit 4: One-year Forward P/E band
                  300

                  250

                  200

                  150

                  100

                   50

                    0
                    Apr-04        Apr-05         Apr-06          Apr-07         Apr-08    Apr-09   Apr-10
                                           CMP     6x       8x            10x     12x    14x
               Source: Company, Angel Research




May 28, 2010                                                                                          4
Bajaj Electricals I 4QFY2010 Result Update


               Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)                                                    (Rs cr)
                Y/E March                             FY2007    FY2008    FY2009    FY2010   FY2011E   FY2012E
                Gross sales                             1,115    1,405     1,791     2,263     2,731     3,291
                Less: Excise duty                         29        25        25        34        41        49
                Net Sales                               1,085    1,379     1,766     2,229     2,690     3,242
                Other operating income                      -         -         -        -         -          -
                Total operating income                  1,085    1,379     1,766     2,229     2,690     3,242
                % chg                                    27.8     27.1      28.0      26.2      20.7      20.5
                Total Expenditure                        999     1,236     1,586     1,985     2,413     2,902
                Net Raw Materials                        786       963     1,315     1,652     1,883     2,269
                Other Mfg costs                           68        88       194       236       167       198
                Personnel                                 43        63        77        97       135       162
                Other                                    101       122          -        -       229       272
                EBITDA                                    86       143       180       243       277       340
                % chg                                    35.6     65.8      25.6      35.3      13.8      22.9
                (% of Net Sales)                          8.0     10.4      10.2      10.9      10.3      10.5
                Depreciation& Amortisation                 7         7         9         9        10        12
                EBIT                                      79       136       171       234       267       328
                % chg                                    37.9     71.7      26.2      36.7      13.9      22.9
                (% of Net Sales)                          7.3      9.8       9.7      10.5       9.9      10.1
                Interest & other Charges                  25        34        37        31        24        24
                Other Income                               7         9         6         3         3         3
                (% of PBT)                               10.9      8.5       4.1       1.4       1.2       0.9
                Share in profit of Associates               -         -         -        -         -          -
                Recurring PBT                             60       111       140       206       245       307
                % chg                                             84.8      25.7      46.9      19.4      24.9
                Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.)                -         -         -        5         -          -
                PBT (reported)                            60       111       140       201       245       307
                Tax                                       22        38        51        75        84       105
                (% of PBT)                               35.9     34.4      36.2      37.6      34.4      34.4
                PAT (reported)                            39        73        89       125       161       201
                Add: Share of earnings of associate         -         -         -        -         -          -
                Less: Minority interest (MI)                -         -         -        -         -          -
                Prior period items                         0         1        (0)        8         -          -
                PAT after MI (reported)                   39        73        89       125       161       201
                ADJ. PAT                                  39        73        90       117       161       201
                % chg                                             88.3      23.4      30.7      37.5      24.9
                (% of Net Sales)                          3.6      5.3       5.1       5.3       6.0       6.2
                Basic EPS (Rs)                            8.9      8.5      10.3      12.0      16.5      20.6
                Fully Diluted EPS (Rs)                    8.9      8.4      10.4      11.7      16.1      20.1
                % chg                                             (5.9)     23.4      13.0      37.5      24.9




May 28, 2010                                                                                                  5
Bajaj Electricals I 4QFY2010 Result Update


               Balance Sheet (Consolidated)                                                        (Rs cr)
                Y/E March                         FY2007   FY2008   FY2009   FY2010E   FY2011E   FY2012E
                SOURCES OF FUNDS
                Equity Share Capital                   9       17       17        20        20        20
                Preference Capital                     -        -        -         -         -          -
                Reserves& Surplus                    108      156      225       470       590       750
                Shareholders Funds                   117      173      242       490       610       770
                Minority Interest                      -        -        -         -         -          -
                Total Loans                          237      237      214       150       200       200
                Deferred Tax Liability (Net)           7        4        3         -         -          -
                Total Liabilities                    361      414      459       640       810       970
                APPLICATION OF FUNDS
                Gross Block                          136      144      154       186       207       249
                Less: Acc. Depreciation               46       52       60        69        79        92
                Net Block                             91       92       95       117       128       157
                Capital Work-in-Progress               1        0        2         2         2         2
                Goodwill                               -        -        -         -         -          -
                Investments                           22       22       32        32        32        32
                Current Assets                       566      708      904     1,192     1,492     1,769
                Cash                                  29       32       54       117       151       116
                Loans & Advances                      58       89      113       145       175       211
                Inventories                          120      162      178       223       269       324
                Debtors                              358      425      559       708       897     1,118
                Other                                  -        -        -         -         -          -
                Current liabilities                  318      408      573       703       843       991
                Net Current Assets                   248      300      331       490       649       779
                Mis. Exp. not written off              0        -        -         -         -          -
                Total Assets                         361      414      459       640       810       970

               Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)                                                  (Rs cr)
                Y/E March                         FY2007   FY2008   FY2009   FY2010E   FY2011E   FY2012E
                Profit before tax                    60      111      140       201       245       307
                Depreciation                          7        7        9         9        10         12
                (Inc.)/ Dec. in Working Capital     (35)     (19)      15       (64)      (95)     (128)
                Less: Other income                    7        9        6         3         3          3
                Direct taxes paid                    22       38       51        75        84       105
                Cash Flow from Operations             5       52      108        67        73         82
                (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets         (4)      (7)     (13)      (31)      (21)      (43)
                (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments          (7)      (0)      (9)         -         -          -
                (Inc.)/ Dec. in loans and adv.      (20)     (31)     (24)      (32)      (30)      (36)
                Other income                          7        9        6         3         3          3
                Cash Flow from Investing            (25)     (29)     (40)      (60)      (48)      (76)
                Issue of Equity                      (2)       9         -      157          -          -
                Inc./(Dec.) in loans                 44       (0)     (23)      (63)       50           -
                Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)             8       16       20        27        41         41
                Others                               (4)     (13)      (2)      (12)        0         (0)
                Cash Flow from Financing             31      (21)     (46)       56         9       (41)
                Inc./(Dec.) in Cash                  10        3       22        63        34       (35)
                Opening Cash balances                19       29       32        54       117       151
                Closing Cash balances                29       32       54       117       151       116


May 28, 2010                                                                                            6
Bajaj Electricals I 4QFY2010 Result Update


               Key Ratios
                Y/E March                             FY2007   FY2008   FY2009   FY2010E   FY2011E   FY2012E
                Valuation Ratio (x)
                P/E (on FDEPS)                          22.7     24.2     19.6      17.3      12.6      10.1
                P/E (on basic, reported EPS)            22.7     24.0     19.6      16.9      12.3       9.8
                P/CEPS                                  19.1     21.8     17.9      15.7      11.6       9.3
                P/BV                                     7.5     10.1      7.2       4.0       3.2       2.6
                Dividend yield (%)                       0.8      0.8      1.0       1.2       1.8       1.8
                Market cap. / Sales                      0.8      1.3      1.0       0.9       0.7       0.6
                EV/Sales                                 1.0      1.4      1.1       0.9       0.8       0.6
                EV/EBITDA                               12.6     13.7     10.6       8.3       7.3       6.1
                EV / Total Assets                        3.0      4.7      4.2       3.1       2.5       2.1
                Per Share Data (Rs)
                EPS (Basic)                              8.9      8.5     10.3      12.0      16.5      20.6
                EPS (fully diluted)                      8.9      8.4     10.4      11.7      16.1      20.1
                Cash EPS                                19.1     21.8     17.9      15.7      11.6       9.3
                DPS                                      8.1      8.0     10.0       2.4       3.6       3.6
                Book Value                              27.0     20.1     28.0      50.2      62.5      78.9
                ROE Decomposition (%)
                EBIT margin                              7.3      9.8      9.7      10.5       9.9      10.1
                Tax retention ratio                     79.2     77.7     77.4      81.3      78.2      82.5
                Asset turnover (x)                       3.6      3.9      4.5       4.8       4.6       4.3
                ROCE (Post Tax)                         20.7     29.5     33.7      41.0      35.3      35.8
                Cost of Debt (Post Tax)                  7.5      9.3     10.5      10.8       9.0       7.9
                Leverage (x)                             1.6      1.2      0.8       0.2       0.1         -
                Operating ROE                           42.2     53.5     51.1      47.0      37.1      35.8
                Returns (%)
                ROCE (Pre-tax)                          24.2     35.0     39.2      42.6      36.8      36.8
                Angel ROIC                              20.7     29.6     33.8      41.2      35.4      35.9
                ROE                                     37.2     50.0     43.1      32.0      29.3      29.2
                Turnover ratios (x)
                Asset Turnover (Gross Block)             8.1      9.8     11.8      13.1      13.7      14.2
                Asset Turnover (Net Block)              11.7     15.1     19.0      21.1      22.0      22.8
                Operating Income / Invested
                                                         3.3      3.6      4.0       4.1       3.7       3.6
                Capital
                Inventory / Sales (days)                 38       37       35        33        33        33
                Receivables (days)                      107      104      102       104       109       113
                Payables (days)                         105      107      113       117       117       115
                WC cycle (ex-cash) (days)                64       64       56        53        59        65
                Solvency ratios (x)
                Gross debt to equity                     2.0      1.4      0.9       0.3       0.3       0.3
                Net debt to equity                       1.8      1.2      0.7       0.1       0.1         -
                Net debt to EBITDA                       2.4      1.4      0.9       0.1       0.2         -
                Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest)      3.1      4.0      4.6       7.4      11.1      13.6




May 28, 2010                                                                                               7
Bajaj Electricals I 4QFY2010 Result Update


Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800                                           E-mail: research@angeltrade.com                                       Website: www.angeltrade.com


DISCLAIMER

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this
document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to
arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved),
and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.

Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are
inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company
may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as
opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true,
and are for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly,
we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel
Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other
reasons that prevent us from doing so.

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on,
directly or indirectly.

Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services
in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past.

Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the
use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section).




    Disclosure of Interest Statement                                                                   Bajaj Electricals
    1. Analyst ownership of the stock                                                                           No
    2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                                                     No
    3. Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock                                          No
    4. Broking relationship with company covered                                                                No
    Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies.
.




                                  Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
                                                                      Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800



      Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE:
      INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
      Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM /
      CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302




May 28, 2010                                                                                                                                                                                  8

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Bajaj electricals ru4-qfy2010-280510

  • 1. 4QFY2010 Result Update I Consumer Durables May 28, 2010 ` Bajaj Electricals NEUTRAL CMP Rs203 Performance Highlights Target Price - For 4QFY2010, Bajaj Electricals recorded a strong 19.3% yoy growth in Investment Period - Top-line to Rs784cr (Rs657cr), which was slightly ahead of our estimates. Top-line growth was primarily driven by the strong growth registered by the Stock Info Consumer Durables Division. OPM also exceeded our estimates, though it Sector Cons. Durables fell from 12.4% in 4QFY2009 to 11.8% in 4QFY2010. However, the company paid additional taxes with regard to certain disallowances for the Market Cap (Rs cr) 1,981 past three years. Besides, loans worth Rs5.0cr extended to Hind Lamps, in which the company holds 50%, were written off during the quarter. As a Beta 0.7 result, Net Profit declined 21.1% yoy to Rs37cr. The company’s carry forward 52 WK High / Low 240/70 Order Book stood at Rs932cr, which is better than management’s expectations. The stock is currently trading at 10.1x FY2012E Earnings, Avg. Daily Volume 77,197 factoring in most of the visible growth. We recommend a Neutral on the Face Value (Rs) 2 stock. BSE Sensex 16,683 Strong Growth in Top-line: The company displayed strong growth Nifty 5,067 momentum in Sales during the quarter, especially in the Consumer Durables Division, which registered 35.6% yoy growth in 4QFY2010. However, the Reuters Code BJEL.BO E&P Division grew by a mere 7.7% yoy, which restricted overall growth Bloomberg Code BJE@IN numbers to 19.3%. However, the E&P Division grew 41.1% in FY2010 over FY2009. OPM of the Consumer Durables Division followed the strong Shareholding Pattern (%) Revenue growth and remained firm at 13.3%. Promoters 65.7 Outlook and Valuation MF/Banks/Indian FIs 18.0 We maintain our strong growth outlook for the company going forward, FII/NRIs/OCBs 4.3 based on a comfortable Order Book position and strong performance in all Indian Public 12.0 the Divisions. Growth in the domestic economy is also expected to benefit the company immensely. Given the improved outlook and stronger Order Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Book, we have marginally revised upwards our Top-line estimates for Sensex 2.6 18.0 17.1 FY2011E and FY2012E. At current levels, the stock is trading at 12.6x and 10.1x FY2011E and FY2012E Earnings, respectively, and factoring in most Bajaj Elec. 4.5 164.0 281.3 of the visible growth. Hence, we recommend a Neutral on the stock. Key Financials (Consolidated) Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 1,766 2,229 2,690 3,242 % chg 28.0 26.2 20.7 20.5 Net Profit 89 125 161 201 % chg 22.2 40.2 28.5 24.9 EBITDA Margin (%) 10.2 10.9 10.3 10.5 FDEPS (Rs) 10.4 11.7 16.1 20.1 P/E (x) 19.6 17.3 12.6 10.1 P/BV (x) 7.2 4.0 3.2 2.6 RoE (%) 43.1 32.0 29.3 29.2 RoACE (%) 39.2 42.6 36.8 36.8 Jai Sharda EV/Sales (x) 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 305 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.6 8.3 7.3 6.1 E-mail: jai.sharda@angeltrade.com Source: Company, Angel Research 1 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
  • 2. Bajaj Electricals I 4QFY2010 Result Update Exhibit 1: 4QFY2010 Performance (Consolidated) Y/E March (Rs cr) 4QFY10 3QFY10 % chg 4QFY09 % chg FY10 FY09 % chg (qoq) (yoy) Net Sales 784 592 32.4 657 19.3 2,229 1,766 26.2 Consumption of RM 608 419 45.1 491 23.7 1,652 1,315 25.7 (% of Sales) 77.5 70.7 74.8 74.1 74.5 Staff Costs 21.7 24.9 (13.0) 17.9 21.6 97.2 77.1 26.0 (% of Sales) 2.8 4.2 2.7 4.4 4.4 Other Expenses 62.5 87.6 (28.6) 66.2 (5.5) 235.7 193.8 21.6 (% of Sales) 8.0 14.8 10.1 10.6 11.0 Total Expenditure 692 531 30.2 575 20.2 1,985 1,586 25.2 Operating Profit 92.3 60.8 51.7 81.8 12.8 243.4 179.8 35.3 OPM (%) 11.8 10.3 12.4 10.9 10.2 Interest 5.4 8.9 (39.1) 8.3 (34.1) 31.5 37.0 (14.9) Depreciation 2.3 2.4 (3.8) 2.6 (11.6) 9.2 8.6 7.6 Other Income 0.9 1.1 (24.6) 3.7 (76.9) 2.9 5.7 (49.8) PBT (excl. Extr. Items) 85.4 50.7 68.6 74.7 14.4 205.6 140.0 46.9 Extr. Income/(Expense) 5.0 - - 5.0 - PBT (incl. Extr. Items) 80.4 50.7 58.7 74.7 7.7 200.6 140.0 43.3 (% of Sales) 10.3 8.6 11.4 9.0 7.9 Provision for Taxation 34.8 16.6 110.3 27.2 28.2 75.4 50.7 48.7 (% of PBT) 43.3 32.7 36.4 37.6 36.2 Reported PAT 45.6 34.1 33.7 47.5 (4.1) 125.3 89.4 40.2 Prior Period Items 8.1 (0.0) 0.0 8.2 (0.0) PATM (%) 5.8 5.8 7.2 5.6 5.1 Equity shares (cr) 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 EPS (Rs) 3.9 3.5 12.1 4.9 (19.5) 12.8 9.2 40.2 Adjusted PAT 37.5 34.1 9.8 47.5 (21.1) 117.1 89.4 31.0 Source: Company, Angel Research Segment-wise Performance The Lighting Division registered a decent 15.2% yoy increase in Sales for the quarter to Rs179cr (Rs156cr). The growth in this segment came only from the Lighting products, which registered 27% yoy growth. However, Luminaire sales were flat during the quarter due to sluggish growth in the user industries of Retail, IT, Construction, etc. EBIT of the Division stood at Rs16cr, implying EBIT Margin of 8.8%. Consumer Durables Division registered a strong 35.6% yoy growth in Sales to Rs315cr (Rs232cr) for 4QFY2010. EBIT of the Division came in at Rs42cr, while EBIT Margin stood at 13.3%, a yoy improvement of 184bp. The Engineering & Products Division posted 7.7% yoy growth to Rs290cr (Rs269cr). EBIT of the Division came in at Rs28cr, while EBIT Margin stood at 9.8% for 4QFY2010. The main reason for the lower-than-expected EBIT Margins of the Division was that the product mix was skewed towards low-Margin products. May 28, 2010 2
  • 3. Bajaj Electricals I 4QFY2010 Result Update Exhibit 2: Segment-wise Performance Y/E March 4QFY09 3QFY10 4QFY10 % chg % chg qoq yoy Total Revenue (Rs cr) A) Lighting 155.7 149.6 179.3 19.9 15.2 B) Consumer Durables 232.4 253.7 315.1 24.2 35.6 C) Engineering and Projects 268.9 188.6 289.6 53.6 7.7 D) Others 0.2 0.3 0.2 (11.1) 4.3 Total 657.2 592.1 784.2 32.4 19.3 Less: Inter-Segmental Revenue - - - Net Sales 657.2 592.1 784.2 32.4 19.3 EBIT Margin (%) A) Lighting 11.8 3.9 8.8 487bp (301bp) B) Consumer Durables 11.5 12.1 13.3 122bp 184bp C) Engineering and Projects 13.3 11.9 9.8 (219bp) (358bp) D) Others 8.7 26 16.7 (926bp) 797bp Source: Company, Angel Research One-time impact on Tax Front: The company received certain tax disallowances with respect to the Assessment Years of 2007-08, 2008-09 and 2009-10. The company paid these taxes in 4QFY2010. As a result, the company’s Bottom-line fell 21.1% yoy during the quarter to Rs37cr (Rs47cr). However, the company has made representations to the authorities to reclaim these taxes. During the quarter, the company also wrote-off loans worth Rs5cr made to Hind Lamps in which the company holds 50% stake. Other developments The company has announced final dividend of Rs2.4/share for FY2010 (120% of the Face Value). Outlook and Valuation We have revised upwards our Sales estimates for FY2011E and FY2012E by 3.9% and 5.3%, respectively. We have also raised OPM estimates to 10.3% and 10.5% from 10.1% and 10.2% for FY2011E and FY2012E, respectively. As a result, our EBITDA estimates now stand at Rs277cr and Rs340cr for FY2011E and FY2012E, respectively. However, due to the additional Debt required by the company to meet its increased working capital needs, interest cost is expected to rise. Exhibit 3: Revised Estimates Rs cr Old New % chg FY2011E FY2012E FY2011E FY2012E FY2011E FY2012E Sales 2,590 3,080 2,690 3,242 3.9 5.3 EBITDA 262 314 277 340 5.9 8.4 EBITDA Margin (%) 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.5 Interest 4.4 1.8 24.1 24.1 448.1 1,239.6 PAT 163.5 202.3 161.0 201.2 (1.5) (0.5) Source: Company, Angel Research The demand situation for the next few years remains strong for the company. Going ahead, things are expected to improve for its Luminaires business as well, as activity in the Retail, IT and Construction sectors improves. We expect the E&P Segment to continue to drive Top-line growth of the company. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 12.6x and 10.1x FY2011E and FY2012E Earnings, respectively. Given the recent run up in stock price, we recommend a Neutral on the stock. May 28, 2010 3
  • 4. Bajaj Electricals I 4QFY2010 Result Update Exhibit 4: One-year Forward P/E band 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 CMP 6x 8x 10x 12x 14x Source: Company, Angel Research May 28, 2010 4
  • 5. Bajaj Electricals I 4QFY2010 Result Update Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) (Rs cr) Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Gross sales 1,115 1,405 1,791 2,263 2,731 3,291 Less: Excise duty 29 25 25 34 41 49 Net Sales 1,085 1,379 1,766 2,229 2,690 3,242 Other operating income - - - - - - Total operating income 1,085 1,379 1,766 2,229 2,690 3,242 % chg 27.8 27.1 28.0 26.2 20.7 20.5 Total Expenditure 999 1,236 1,586 1,985 2,413 2,902 Net Raw Materials 786 963 1,315 1,652 1,883 2,269 Other Mfg costs 68 88 194 236 167 198 Personnel 43 63 77 97 135 162 Other 101 122 - - 229 272 EBITDA 86 143 180 243 277 340 % chg 35.6 65.8 25.6 35.3 13.8 22.9 (% of Net Sales) 8.0 10.4 10.2 10.9 10.3 10.5 Depreciation& Amortisation 7 7 9 9 10 12 EBIT 79 136 171 234 267 328 % chg 37.9 71.7 26.2 36.7 13.9 22.9 (% of Net Sales) 7.3 9.8 9.7 10.5 9.9 10.1 Interest & other Charges 25 34 37 31 24 24 Other Income 7 9 6 3 3 3 (% of PBT) 10.9 8.5 4.1 1.4 1.2 0.9 Share in profit of Associates - - - - - - Recurring PBT 60 111 140 206 245 307 % chg 84.8 25.7 46.9 19.4 24.9 Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - 5 - - PBT (reported) 60 111 140 201 245 307 Tax 22 38 51 75 84 105 (% of PBT) 35.9 34.4 36.2 37.6 34.4 34.4 PAT (reported) 39 73 89 125 161 201 Add: Share of earnings of associate - - - - - - Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - - - Prior period items 0 1 (0) 8 - - PAT after MI (reported) 39 73 89 125 161 201 ADJ. PAT 39 73 90 117 161 201 % chg 88.3 23.4 30.7 37.5 24.9 (% of Net Sales) 3.6 5.3 5.1 5.3 6.0 6.2 Basic EPS (Rs) 8.9 8.5 10.3 12.0 16.5 20.6 Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 8.9 8.4 10.4 11.7 16.1 20.1 % chg (5.9) 23.4 13.0 37.5 24.9 May 28, 2010 5
  • 6. Bajaj Electricals I 4QFY2010 Result Update Balance Sheet (Consolidated) (Rs cr) Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 9 17 17 20 20 20 Preference Capital - - - - - - Reserves& Surplus 108 156 225 470 590 750 Shareholders Funds 117 173 242 490 610 770 Minority Interest - - - - - - Total Loans 237 237 214 150 200 200 Deferred Tax Liability (Net) 7 4 3 - - - Total Liabilities 361 414 459 640 810 970 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 136 144 154 186 207 249 Less: Acc. Depreciation 46 52 60 69 79 92 Net Block 91 92 95 117 128 157 Capital Work-in-Progress 1 0 2 2 2 2 Goodwill - - - - - - Investments 22 22 32 32 32 32 Current Assets 566 708 904 1,192 1,492 1,769 Cash 29 32 54 117 151 116 Loans & Advances 58 89 113 145 175 211 Inventories 120 162 178 223 269 324 Debtors 358 425 559 708 897 1,118 Other - - - - - - Current liabilities 318 408 573 703 843 991 Net Current Assets 248 300 331 490 649 779 Mis. Exp. not written off 0 - - - - - Total Assets 361 414 459 640 810 970 Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) (Rs cr) Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Profit before tax 60 111 140 201 245 307 Depreciation 7 7 9 9 10 12 (Inc.)/ Dec. in Working Capital (35) (19) 15 (64) (95) (128) Less: Other income 7 9 6 3 3 3 Direct taxes paid 22 38 51 75 84 105 Cash Flow from Operations 5 52 108 67 73 82 (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (4) (7) (13) (31) (21) (43) (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (7) (0) (9) - - - (Inc.)/ Dec. in loans and adv. (20) (31) (24) (32) (30) (36) Other income 7 9 6 3 3 3 Cash Flow from Investing (25) (29) (40) (60) (48) (76) Issue of Equity (2) 9 - 157 - - Inc./(Dec.) in loans 44 (0) (23) (63) 50 - Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 8 16 20 27 41 41 Others (4) (13) (2) (12) 0 (0) Cash Flow from Financing 31 (21) (46) 56 9 (41) Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 10 3 22 63 34 (35) Opening Cash balances 19 29 32 54 117 151 Closing Cash balances 29 32 54 117 151 116 May 28, 2010 6
  • 7. Bajaj Electricals I 4QFY2010 Result Update Key Ratios Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 22.7 24.2 19.6 17.3 12.6 10.1 P/E (on basic, reported EPS) 22.7 24.0 19.6 16.9 12.3 9.8 P/CEPS 19.1 21.8 17.9 15.7 11.6 9.3 P/BV 7.5 10.1 7.2 4.0 3.2 2.6 Dividend yield (%) 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.8 1.8 Market cap. / Sales 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 EV/Sales 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 EV/EBITDA 12.6 13.7 10.6 8.3 7.3 6.1 EV / Total Assets 3.0 4.7 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.1 Per Share Data (Rs) EPS (Basic) 8.9 8.5 10.3 12.0 16.5 20.6 EPS (fully diluted) 8.9 8.4 10.4 11.7 16.1 20.1 Cash EPS 19.1 21.8 17.9 15.7 11.6 9.3 DPS 8.1 8.0 10.0 2.4 3.6 3.6 Book Value 27.0 20.1 28.0 50.2 62.5 78.9 ROE Decomposition (%) EBIT margin 7.3 9.8 9.7 10.5 9.9 10.1 Tax retention ratio 79.2 77.7 77.4 81.3 78.2 82.5 Asset turnover (x) 3.6 3.9 4.5 4.8 4.6 4.3 ROCE (Post Tax) 20.7 29.5 33.7 41.0 35.3 35.8 Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 7.5 9.3 10.5 10.8 9.0 7.9 Leverage (x) 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 - Operating ROE 42.2 53.5 51.1 47.0 37.1 35.8 Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) 24.2 35.0 39.2 42.6 36.8 36.8 Angel ROIC 20.7 29.6 33.8 41.2 35.4 35.9 ROE 37.2 50.0 43.1 32.0 29.3 29.2 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 8.1 9.8 11.8 13.1 13.7 14.2 Asset Turnover (Net Block) 11.7 15.1 19.0 21.1 22.0 22.8 Operating Income / Invested 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.1 3.7 3.6 Capital Inventory / Sales (days) 38 37 35 33 33 33 Receivables (days) 107 104 102 104 109 113 Payables (days) 105 107 113 117 117 115 WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 64 64 56 53 59 65 Solvency ratios (x) Gross debt to equity 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 Net debt to equity 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.1 - Net debt to EBITDA 2.4 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.2 - Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest) 3.1 4.0 4.6 7.4 11.1 13.6 May 28, 2010 7
  • 8. Bajaj Electricals I 4QFY2010 Result Update Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, and are for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Disclosure of Interest Statement Bajaj Electricals 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies. . Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 May 28, 2010 8