Presented by Jimmy Smith at the Tropentag 2014 Conference on Bridging the gap between
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The interplay of knowledge and natural resources: Ensuring the health, wealth and environmental benefits of livestock
1. The interplay of knowledge and natural resources:
Ensuring the health, wealth and
environmental benefits of livestock
Tropentag 2014: Bridging the gap between
increasing knowledge and decreasing resources
17−19 September 2014 Prague, Czech Republic
Jimmy Smith Director General ILRI
2. Key messages-1
• With diminishing natural resources,
we’ll have 10 billion people to feed
by mid-century, many
of whom will be consuming
more meat, milk and eggs
• Transformation of the livestock systems of
developing countries is one of the biggest
opportunities we have for a nourished, healthy,
environmentally sound and equitable world
3. Key messages-2
• We can, and should, rely on the creation,
diffusion and application
of our primary ‘natural resource’
− scientific knowledge −
to transform the future
of livestock production
• We can, and should, ensure that we
grow our food and manage our
natural resources for the benefit of all −
and for all generations to come
5. Humankind and natural resources before agriculture
Long before
recorded history,
people depended
on natural
resources for
their survival
6. Humankind and natural resources before agriculture
Before the advent
of agriculture,
each hunter-gatherer
needed about 6.5 sq km
to catch wild animals
and to gather wild foods
7. Application of knowledge first transforms agriculture:
Animals and plants are domesticated
Some 7 to 9
thousand years
ago, people
first domesticated
large herbivores
8. Humankind and natural resources
at the dawn of agriculture
Long before
recorded history,
people depended
on animals for
their survival
9. Exponential population growth
Global population (millions)
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
-12000 -10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000 4000
Series 1
10. Billion ha land per 1 million population
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000
11. Billion ha land per 1 million population
16
14
12
10
8
Less than 2 ha per person −
shared with at 6
least 5 animals
4
2
0
Thousands of ha per person
-10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000
23. By 2050 we’ll need huge amounts
of cereals, dairy and meat
1bn tonnes more
cereals to 2050
1bn tonnes
dairy each year
460m tonnes
meat each year
24. 4 of 5 highest value global commodities are livestock
FAO 2013
25. % change in global demand for livestock products:
2000–2030
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
milk beef mutton pork poultry
meat
eggs
FAO 2011
%
26. Change in global and regional demand for food:
Livestock and other commodities
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
developed developing SSA SA
% change 2005/07 to 2050
cereals
root/tuber
meat
dairy
Modified from Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012
27. Gains in meat consumption in developing
countries are outpacing those of developed
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1980 1990 2002 2015 2030
Million metric tonnes
developing
developed
FAO 2006
28. Consumption of livestock products
to 2050
• Globally:
An overall increase in per capita daily consumption
of livestock products of 37% compared to 2000
• Commodities differ:
– A 2% decrease in global per capita meat consumption
– A 61% increase in global per capita milk consumption
• Regions differ:
– In 2000, Africa and Middle East consumed (in total calorie
consumption) 60% fewer livestock foods than the EC
– In 2050, this will be reversed: highest livestock consumption
will be in Africa & Middle East, lowest in the EC
Herrero et al. 2014
30. Three plausible scenarios for livestock growth
Scenario #1
Developing countries meet
livestock demand by
importing products
Scenario #2
Developing countries meet
livestock demand by
importing knowledge
Scenario #3
Developing countries meet
livestock demand by
transforming smallholder livestock systems
32. The unlimited natural resource
of human will and ingenuity and innovations
Knowledge advances agriculture,
while agriculture (the ‘mother of all inventions’)
advances knowledge
33. Global Agenda for Sustainable Livestock-1
• Global poverty
and inequality
cannot be addressed
without investment
in livestock
• Global food
security and health
cannot be addressed
without investment
in livestock
34. Global Agenda for Sustainable Livestock-2
• Global
environmental
issues cannot be
addressed without
investment in
livestock
• Investment in
livestock needs to
produce more, from
less, in ways that
benefit all
35. Key messages-1
• With diminishing natural resources,
we’ll have 10 billion people to feed
by mid-century, many
of whom will be consuming
more meat, milk and eggs
• Transformation of the livestock systems of
developing countries is one of the biggest
opportunities we have for a nourished, healthy,
environmentally sound and equitable world
36. Key messages-2
• We can, and should, rely on the creation,
diffusion and application
of our primary ‘natural resource’
− scientific knowledge −
to transform the future
of livestock production
• We can, and should, ensure that we
grow our food and manage our
natural resources for the benefit of all −
and for all generations to come
37. better lives through livestock
ilri.org
The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
Editor's Notes
THE PAST
PRE-HISTORIC AFRICA
Long before recorded history, people depended on animals for their survival.
THE PAST
PRE-HISTORIC AFRICA
Long before recorded history, people depended on animals for their survival.
THE PAST
PRE-HISTORIC AFRICA
Long before recorded history, people depended on animals for their survival.
THE PAST
PRE-HISTORIC AFRICA
Long before recorded history, people depended on animals for their survival.
This is not arable land but total land surface – 13.4 billion ha. Only 11% of this is estimated to be arable land, with a further 2.7 billion ha possible for crop production. A total of 4.2 billion ha is suitable for rainfed agriculture. Such gross figures serve to illustrative the demands on natural resources, with land as an example in this case.
This is not arable land but total land surface – 13.4 billion ha. Only 11% of this is estimated to be arable land, with a further 2.7 billion ha possible for crop production. A total of 4.2 billion ha is suitable for rainfed agriculture. Such gross figures serve to illustrative the demands on natural resources, with land as an example in this case.
All types of food are needed – diversity of food
Specifically, the world will need:
1 billion tonnes more cereals to 2050
1 billion tonnes dairy products each year
460 million tonnes meat each year
Source of data for 2000 – 2030 figures:
FAO. 2011. Mapping supply and demand for animal source foods to 2030. By T.P. Robinson and F.Pozer. Animal Production and Health Working Paper. No. 2. FAO, Rome.
Modified from Alexandratos N and Bruinsma J (2012) World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050. The 2012 revision. ESA Working paper No. 12-03. Agriculture Development Economics Division, FAO, Rome.
Figures from FAO’s Livestock’s Long Shadow.
Herrero M, Havlik P, McIntire JM, Palazzo A, Valin H. 2014. African Livestock Futures: Realizing the potential of livestock for food security, poverty reduction and the environment in sub-Saharan Africa.