The document outlines a training initiative for resource persons focused on participatory prospective analysis and scenario building, emphasizing the distinction between foresight and forecasting. It details the participatory prospective analysis (PPA) method and its application to various territorial development issues, alongside principles for effective scenario planning. Key steps include identifying driving forces, developing plausible scenarios, and defining strategies for action.

1. The Foresight method
for scenario building
Grassroots Foresight initiative - Training of Resource persons
Participatory Prospective Analysis –Scenario Building
February 1-7, 2015
Quezon City, The Philippines
Robin Bourgeois GFAR Secretariat
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2. Foresight is not Forecast
FORECAST
Sectorial Focus
Mostly quantitative data
Trends and variations
Modeling
The GIGO effect (Garbage In
Garbage Out)
FORESIGHT
System Approach
Mostly qualitative data
Trends and ruptures
Scenario building
The “Chaos” effect
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3. Foresight is not Forecast
Future
x
Foresight is the exploration of the future
Current
situation
Possible
Future #1
Possible
Future #2
Possible
Future # …
Possible
Future #n
Current
situation
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4. Facing change
Meaning Actions Strategies
Passive Accept Wait Submit
Reactive Adapt React Wait
Pre-active Prepare Explore Anticipation
Pro-active + Intervene + Modify + Influence
Behavior
Forecast Foresight
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5. Building scenarios
with the
Participatory Prospective Analysis (PPA) Method
How to do a local foresight?
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6. Based on the work of the “Prospective School”
– Godet (CNAM); de Jouvenel (futuribles), etc…
Developed by a CIRAD team of scientists working on
the co-construction of public policies with more
actors participation
The Origins of PPA
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7. PPA applied to territorial development issues
 Forest management in Yamdena Island, Indonesia
 Access to the Amerindian area in French Guyana
 Land use planning in Kapuas Hulu, Indonesia
 Land use planning in Seram, Indonesia
 Rural development in Mayotte, France
 The futures of the Segou region, Mali
 The futures of the Varakinantra region, Madagascar
Recent examples
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8. Related to the objectives
 Efficacy: achieve results in a limited time frame
 Participation: inclusiveness and interaction
Related to the content
 Consistency: internal coherence of the method, rigor
 Replicability: allow repetition, comparison
 Transparency: no black box, everything documented
Related to the results
 Plausibility: coherence of the results
 Relevance: can be used for action
 Capacity building: learning how to think forward
Principles
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9. Sources
 The knowledge of actors and “experts”
 Existing documents and data
Forms of interaction
 Group work based on numerous interactions of “experts”
Methods
 Qualitative data
 Qantitative analysis when posible
Key features
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10. Main steps
S1 – Identification of the forces
shaping the future
Driving Forces of Change
S2 – Identification of
plausible futures
Plausible Scenarios
S3 – Definition of a strategyActions 10

11. S3.8 From scenarios to action
S0.1 Define the limits of the system
S1.2 Identify the forces of change
S1.3 Define the forces of change
S1.4 Measure their mutual influences
S1.5 Unveiling the driving forces
S2.6 Define the states of the driving forces
S2.7 Build up scenarios
S0 – Defining the system
S1 – Identification of the
forces shaping the future
S2 – Identification of
plausible futures
S3 – Definition of a
strategy
Detailed steps
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