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Foresight thinking
as a part of
an innovator’s
education
Elena Diryugina,
program director,
Open University Skolkovo,
Moscow, Russia
San Francisco, 2015
Innovation system in Russia
4 approaches to foresight education
4 cases of educational projects in
foresight
Foresight community in Russia: usage
instructions
For whom:
 Development institutions,
 Innovation infrastructure,
 Innovators,
 Educators
2014: Russian venture market – the 3 place in Europe
SKOLKOVO FOUNDATION (2010, 1000+ projects)
FASIE (1994, 8000 projects)
VEB innovation
(2011, 18 projects)
RVC (2006)
FIEP (2011, 360 projects)
RUSNANO
(2007, 100+ projects)
INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTIONS
R&D
COMMERCI
ALIZATION SCALE
TECH.
TRANSFER
INCUBATION
Open University Skolkovo
(OpUS) is a Skolkovo
Foundation program designed
to attract talented young
people skilled in science and
technology and displaying
entrepreneurial talent, recruit
them and allow them to
develop within the innovation
ecosystem in Russia.
INNOVATION
DEVELOPMENT
INSTITUTIONS
INNOVATION
CENTERS
IN UNIVERSITIES
GLOBAL
CORPORATIONS
EDUCATIONAL
COMPANIES,
BUSINESS
INCUBATORS
FORESIGHT THINKING?
Foresight is not only
a research technology,
but also
a management technology
Startups
Research groups
Financial aid
Federal programs, Development Institutions
STRATEGY 2020: Sci&Tech Priorities
Government
Analytical Foresight
Economic Development Ministry (2006), Higher School of Economics (2011)
Financial aid to startups
Federal programs, Development Institutions
Strategy and SciTech Priorities
Government
National Technological Initiative
Agency of strategic initiatives, Russian venture company
Foresight & Initiatives
Research groups, innovators, businessmen, investors
The Future is coming.
It will be different from the present.
There are several scenarios of the futures.
The Actors determine, which scenario is the basic one.
TO ACCEPT THE FORECAST
.
. 1. The ability to use the
techniques of mid- and long-
term foresight and to choose
the basic scenario.
2. The ability to generate the
projects and initiatives
enhancing the chosen scenario.
TO FORM THE FORECAST
1. Understanding of short-
term and long-term trends
and the basic scenario.
2. The ability to evaluate the
perspectives of a research/
engineering / technological
project.
POTENTIAL INNOVATORS
(HAVE NO PROJECT YET)
METHOD
From general to particular
TIME RESOURCES
Available
AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL APPLICANTS
Many ( > 100 000)
MOTIVATION
A search for perspective idea, curiosity
RISKS
To become a futurist
BEGINNERS
[HAVE PROJECTS ALREADY)
METHOD
From particular to general, then back
TIME RESOURCES
Minimum
AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL APPLICANTS
Not many ( < 10 000)
MOTIVATION
Benefits to the projects
RISKS
Reduction of foresight to negotiations
PROACTIVE / ELITE
PASSIVE, RECEIVING / MASS
LONG-TERM
STRATEGY
SHORT-TERM
STRATEGY
Education
via research
Education via
decision-making
situation
Education via
transmission
Education via
project ideas
generation /
discussion
WHOM TO EDUCATE?
Everyone  Nobody 
Someone
Egalitarian  Elite
WHAT TO STUDY?
Everything  Nothing  Something
General  special
HOW LONG?
Determined periods of time 
Life-long learning 
Short irregular periods of time
HOW? (INSTRUMENTS)
to READ, to LISTEN,
to DISCUSS, to PLAY, to WRITE,
to INVESTIGATE, to CREATE,
WHO EDUCATES?
PROACTIVE / ELITE
PASSIVE, RECEIVING / MASS
LONG-TERM
STRATEGY
SHORT-TERM
STRATEGY
Educational
Course in
Foresight
The Think Foresight course is aimed to give students not
only advanced methods of foresight practice but also a wide
range of knowledge – an ontological basis – that is the
foundation of efficient thinking about the future.
The audience:
Future technological and business elite -
several hundreds of the best students and PhD students
from the best technological universities
The duration: a year
Advanced practices of thinking, understanding and
self-reflection.
Techniques of collective creative work.
Psychological and thinking methods necessary for
thinking about future.
Practical skills in setting and solving tasks and
problems of future designing in various scales:
world, macro-region, country, region, and even
personality.
Sufficient knowledge in academic areas necessary
for theoretic and practical thinking about future
 a model of historical phases;
 a model of sociosystem;
 a model of knowledge
focuses;
 strategy analytics;
 a concept «Inevitable
future»-
scenario-building methodology.
The Future Designing Research Group is an
independent non-profit public think-tank, located in
St.Petersburg.
Focus on long-term forecasts and foresights for
state and private bodies.
Persons: Elena and Sergei Pereslegin,
Ekaterina and Nikolay Yutanov, and others
Main organizer: Open University Skolkovo
• Lectures,
• practical skills
in scenarios building,
• brainstorming with
Knowledge Reactor
method,
• social role-play
modelling games,
• scenario engineering
analytics.
PROACTIVE / ELITE
PASSIVE, RECEIVING / MASS
LONG-TERM
STRATEGY
SHORT-TERM
STRATEGY
High-level
Road map
development
2015:
Road Maps development:
how to find perspective
markets and create
successful technological
companies – national champions
till 2035 .
Annual, since 2012
The audience:
600+ participants, after a strict selection process:
entrepreneurs, venture investors, researchers,
educators, non-governmental organizations, the
leaders of enterprises of the real sector of the
economy, representatives of government.
Main organizers: Agency for strategic initiatives,
Russian Venture Company
The duration: 5 days
Rapid foresight methodology –
how to communicate about the future.
Foresight fleet features:
smart active people, limited time, closed space,
even without the Internet 
PROACTIVE / ELITE
PASSIVE, RECEIVING / MASS
LONG-TERM
STRATEGY
SHORT-TERM
STRATEGY
Thematic
Foresight-games
/ project
sessions
Participants become ‘a working body’ of the
foresight-session.
Who plays a role of a teacher?
- facilitators, gamemasters,
session analysts
How to become a facilitator:
Foresight School (ASI)
Gamemasters School (OpUS)
others.
The main Formats:
• brainstorming with
Knowledge
Reactor method,
• social role-play
modelling games,
• Rapid Foresight
The duration: short (1-7 days) irregular sessions
PROACTIVE / ELITE
PASSIVE, RECEIVING / MASS
LONG-TERM
STRATEGY
SHORT-TERM
STRATEGY
Media
No future without science
fiction and futurology!
To get innovation economy,
breakthrough discoveries, global
competitiveness, as well as the
future itself, we need to have
youth with great imagination
resources.
Science Fiction inspires
Futurology, Futurology enhances
Sci-Fi, and all together they take
us to the future.
33
«IF» Futurology and Sci-Fi,
future markets analysis
Partnership with
development institutions
Partnership with think-
tanks
The order to writers in the
context of critical issues of
development
audience
Professionals in
the field of
innovations
Futurists
Sci-Fi fandom
Youth
Multi-Format platform for communication about the
Future
34
Futurology
Practice
Sci-Fi
 Paper journal
 Interactive e-journal
 Apps for cellphones
 Network community
Sponsored by RVC
www.esli.ru
u
1
Open University Skolkovo
Sk.ru/opus
2
The Future Designing Research Group
Future-designing.org
3
Agency for strategic initiatives
asi.ru
4
Higher School of Economics, International
research and educational Foresight centre
issek.hse.ru/en/dep_foresight
5
The Fund "Center for strategic research"
csr.ru
Elena Diryugina,
Program director
Open University Skolkovo
EDiryugina@sk.ru
facebook.com/elena.diryugina
Thank you for your attention! !

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Foresight Thinking as Part of an Innovator's Education

  • 1. Foresight thinking as a part of an innovator’s education Elena Diryugina, program director, Open University Skolkovo, Moscow, Russia San Francisco, 2015
  • 2. Innovation system in Russia 4 approaches to foresight education 4 cases of educational projects in foresight Foresight community in Russia: usage instructions For whom:  Development institutions,  Innovation infrastructure,  Innovators,  Educators
  • 3. 2014: Russian venture market – the 3 place in Europe SKOLKOVO FOUNDATION (2010, 1000+ projects) FASIE (1994, 8000 projects) VEB innovation (2011, 18 projects) RVC (2006) FIEP (2011, 360 projects) RUSNANO (2007, 100+ projects) INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTIONS R&D COMMERCI ALIZATION SCALE TECH. TRANSFER INCUBATION
  • 4. Open University Skolkovo (OpUS) is a Skolkovo Foundation program designed to attract talented young people skilled in science and technology and displaying entrepreneurial talent, recruit them and allow them to develop within the innovation ecosystem in Russia.
  • 6. FORESIGHT THINKING? Foresight is not only a research technology, but also a management technology
  • 7. Startups Research groups Financial aid Federal programs, Development Institutions STRATEGY 2020: Sci&Tech Priorities Government Analytical Foresight Economic Development Ministry (2006), Higher School of Economics (2011)
  • 8. Financial aid to startups Federal programs, Development Institutions Strategy and SciTech Priorities Government National Technological Initiative Agency of strategic initiatives, Russian venture company Foresight & Initiatives Research groups, innovators, businessmen, investors
  • 9. The Future is coming. It will be different from the present. There are several scenarios of the futures. The Actors determine, which scenario is the basic one.
  • 10. TO ACCEPT THE FORECAST . . 1. The ability to use the techniques of mid- and long- term foresight and to choose the basic scenario. 2. The ability to generate the projects and initiatives enhancing the chosen scenario. TO FORM THE FORECAST 1. Understanding of short- term and long-term trends and the basic scenario. 2. The ability to evaluate the perspectives of a research/ engineering / technological project.
  • 11. POTENTIAL INNOVATORS (HAVE NO PROJECT YET) METHOD From general to particular TIME RESOURCES Available AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL APPLICANTS Many ( > 100 000) MOTIVATION A search for perspective idea, curiosity RISKS To become a futurist BEGINNERS [HAVE PROJECTS ALREADY) METHOD From particular to general, then back TIME RESOURCES Minimum AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL APPLICANTS Not many ( < 10 000) MOTIVATION Benefits to the projects RISKS Reduction of foresight to negotiations
  • 12. PROACTIVE / ELITE PASSIVE, RECEIVING / MASS LONG-TERM STRATEGY SHORT-TERM STRATEGY Education via research Education via decision-making situation Education via transmission Education via project ideas generation / discussion
  • 13. WHOM TO EDUCATE? Everyone Nobody Someone Egalitarian Elite
  • 14. WHAT TO STUDY? Everything Nothing Something General special
  • 15. HOW LONG? Determined periods of time Life-long learning Short irregular periods of time
  • 16. HOW? (INSTRUMENTS) to READ, to LISTEN, to DISCUSS, to PLAY, to WRITE, to INVESTIGATE, to CREATE, WHO EDUCATES?
  • 17. PROACTIVE / ELITE PASSIVE, RECEIVING / MASS LONG-TERM STRATEGY SHORT-TERM STRATEGY Educational Course in Foresight
  • 18. The Think Foresight course is aimed to give students not only advanced methods of foresight practice but also a wide range of knowledge – an ontological basis – that is the foundation of efficient thinking about the future. The audience: Future technological and business elite - several hundreds of the best students and PhD students from the best technological universities The duration: a year
  • 19. Advanced practices of thinking, understanding and self-reflection. Techniques of collective creative work. Psychological and thinking methods necessary for thinking about future. Practical skills in setting and solving tasks and problems of future designing in various scales: world, macro-region, country, region, and even personality. Sufficient knowledge in academic areas necessary for theoretic and practical thinking about future
  • 20.  a model of historical phases;  a model of sociosystem;  a model of knowledge focuses;  strategy analytics;  a concept «Inevitable future»- scenario-building methodology.
  • 21. The Future Designing Research Group is an independent non-profit public think-tank, located in St.Petersburg. Focus on long-term forecasts and foresights for state and private bodies. Persons: Elena and Sergei Pereslegin, Ekaterina and Nikolay Yutanov, and others Main organizer: Open University Skolkovo
  • 22. • Lectures, • practical skills in scenarios building, • brainstorming with Knowledge Reactor method, • social role-play modelling games, • scenario engineering analytics.
  • 23. PROACTIVE / ELITE PASSIVE, RECEIVING / MASS LONG-TERM STRATEGY SHORT-TERM STRATEGY High-level Road map development
  • 24. 2015: Road Maps development: how to find perspective markets and create successful technological companies – national champions till 2035 . Annual, since 2012
  • 25. The audience: 600+ participants, after a strict selection process: entrepreneurs, venture investors, researchers, educators, non-governmental organizations, the leaders of enterprises of the real sector of the economy, representatives of government. Main organizers: Agency for strategic initiatives, Russian Venture Company The duration: 5 days
  • 26. Rapid foresight methodology – how to communicate about the future. Foresight fleet features: smart active people, limited time, closed space, even without the Internet 
  • 27. PROACTIVE / ELITE PASSIVE, RECEIVING / MASS LONG-TERM STRATEGY SHORT-TERM STRATEGY Thematic Foresight-games / project sessions
  • 28. Participants become ‘a working body’ of the foresight-session.
  • 29. Who plays a role of a teacher? - facilitators, gamemasters, session analysts How to become a facilitator: Foresight School (ASI) Gamemasters School (OpUS) others.
  • 30. The main Formats: • brainstorming with Knowledge Reactor method, • social role-play modelling games, • Rapid Foresight The duration: short (1-7 days) irregular sessions
  • 31. PROACTIVE / ELITE PASSIVE, RECEIVING / MASS LONG-TERM STRATEGY SHORT-TERM STRATEGY Media
  • 32. No future without science fiction and futurology! To get innovation economy, breakthrough discoveries, global competitiveness, as well as the future itself, we need to have youth with great imagination resources. Science Fiction inspires Futurology, Futurology enhances Sci-Fi, and all together they take us to the future.
  • 33. 33 «IF» Futurology and Sci-Fi, future markets analysis Partnership with development institutions Partnership with think- tanks The order to writers in the context of critical issues of development audience Professionals in the field of innovations Futurists Sci-Fi fandom Youth Multi-Format platform for communication about the Future
  • 34. 34 Futurology Practice Sci-Fi  Paper journal  Interactive e-journal  Apps for cellphones  Network community Sponsored by RVC www.esli.ru u
  • 35. 1 Open University Skolkovo Sk.ru/opus 2 The Future Designing Research Group Future-designing.org 3 Agency for strategic initiatives asi.ru 4 Higher School of Economics, International research and educational Foresight centre issek.hse.ru/en/dep_foresight 5 The Fund "Center for strategic research" csr.ru
  • 36. Elena Diryugina, Program director Open University Skolkovo EDiryugina@sk.ru facebook.com/elena.diryugina Thank you for your attention! !