This document provides an overview of futures thinking and strategic visioning. It discusses tools for foresight like causal layered analysis and the futures triangle. It also emphasizes that foresight requires both contemplation to generate insights as well as action to create change. Key aspects of foresight discussed include examining trends, structures, worldviews and underlying narratives to understand the push, pull and weight of different possible futures.

1. Futures Thinking &
Strategic Visioning
Leading Insights
Leaders’ Institute of South Australia

3. youtube.com/thebridge8
youtube.com/technyouvids
tedxadelaide.com
@kristinalford bridge8.com.au

4. Climate

5. Photo: mugfaker, Flickr

6. Photo: mugfaker, Flickr

7. Photo: mugfaker, Flickr

8. Photo: mugfaker, Flickr

9. Education
Example: NAPLAN Testing

10. Health
Example: Royal Adelaide Hospital Relocation

11. Foresight Tools

12. ‘I can give you the present. I don‘t know
about the future, that’s such stuff and
nonsense’
Tim Finn - Split Enz, ‘Stuff and Nonsense’

13. Individual
Intentional “I” Behaviour “It”
Own thoughts, beliefs Skills and learned
and values behaviours, what we see
Interior Exterior
Culture “We” Systems “ITS”
Family & relationships Political, legal, technology,
environment and
economic systems
Collective
Wilber, K 2001, A theory of everything: an integral vision for business, politics, science and spirituality, Shambhala, Boston.
Wilber, K 2005, ‘Introduction to integral theory and practice: IOS Basic and the AQAL map’, in KBFS, vol. 3, pt 4.

14. ‘Restless future burning bright, the past is
holding on so tight’
Bernard Fanning, ‘Wish You Well’, Tea &
Symphony, 2005

15. Causal Layered Analysis
Litany
• quantitative trends, problems, media
Social Causes
• economic, cultural, political, historical
Structure / Worldviews
• deeper social, linguistic and cultural
structures, values
Metaphor or Myth
• underlying stories, collective archetypes,
unconscious, emotive
Inayatullah, S 2005, Questioning the future: methods and tools for organizational and societal transformation, 2nd
edition, Tamkang University Press, Taiwan

16. Well, I’ve been thinking ‘bout the future,
too young to pretend,
such a waste to always look behind you,
you should be looking straight ahead’
Jet, ‘Move On’, Get Born, 2003

17. Futures Triangle
Pull of the Future
Competing images of the future
Map the
Plausible
Push of the Future Future Weight of the Future
Trends and current drivers of change Deep Structures
Eg New Technologies, Globalisation, What is problematic to change?
Demographic shifts What should be carried through?
Inayatullah, S 2005, Questioning the future: methods and tools for organizational and societal transformation, 2nd
edition, Tamkang University Press, Taiwan

18. Tibbs, H 2000, Making the Future Visible: Psychology, Scenarios, and Strategy, Global Business Network, March,
accessed 3 May 2006, www.hardintibbs.com.

19. Contemplation +
Action
Foresight requires both contemplation and action1
Reflectiveness is critical to generate insight, but these
insights must also be linked to action to effect change2
1. Dror, Y 2005, ‘Futures studies for contemplation and action’, in KBFS, vol. 3, pt 1.
2. Brown A 1999, ‘Ten ways futurists can avoid being destroyed’, Futures Research Quarterly, Summer, pp 7-13 & Kahane,
A 2001, ‘How to change the world: lessons for entrepreneurs from activities,’ Reflections vol. 2, no.3, pp.16-29.