Information sharing on the development of a Science Agenda for Agriculture in Africa With inputs for CAADP-CGIAR alignment April 13, 2013 Dublin, Ireland

2. Agriculture Science Agenda
for Africa
Drawing on and Learning from other
Experiences: The Role of Foresighting in
Identifying Critical Areas for Increased
Alignment
Dr Lance O’Brien
Agriculture Science Agenda
For Africa: Discussions on
Programmatic Alignment
CAADP and CGIAR
Dublin, 13 April 2013

3. Outline of presentation
• Rationale: the need for Foresight in Agricultural Research and
Innovation
• What is Foresight?
• What does Foresight involve?
• Who does Foresight?
• Drawing on the EU Foresight experience:
• The EU Framework Programmes
• The EU Standing Committee on Agricultural Research (SCAR)
• Critical areas for increased alignment through the ASAA
• Foresight and the ASAA – The Global Foresight Academy

4. Agricultural Research for Development Challenges
“The global fragmentation and under-resourcing of public innovation, education and advisory
processes and weak linkages with wider development processes and with farmers, NGOs and
the private sector, are major bottlenecks constraining the value and impact of agricultural
innovation on the lives and livelihoods of the poor”
The GCARD Roadmap (2011)
”…institutional issues such as capacity weaknesses, insufficient end user and private sector
involvement, and ineffective farmer support systems persist in most of Africa’s agricultural
productivity programmes and organizations….These problems are compounded by the
fragmented nature of support and by inadequate total investment in agricultural research and
technology dissemination and adoption.”
FAAP (2006)

5. This situation could get worse
Business as usual is not an option:
Business as usual is not an option
•Hunger remains widespread
•Many systems of food production are
unsustainable
Drivers of Change:
•Global population increases
•Changes in the size and nature of per capita
demand
•Future governance of the food system at both
national and international levels
•Climate change
•Competition for key resources
•Changes in values and ethical stances of
consumers
Global Food and Farming Futures (2011)

6. New approach needed in determining future research priorities
• Research must address issues that will still be important when the
research is completed in 10 or more years ahead
• For long-term decisions, a new approach is needed for setting the
agricultural research for development agenda which is:
• forward thinking, demand-driven and based on thorough
research
• assures the continuity needed for the research to reach fruition
• based on analyses of the potential positive and negative
impacts of emerging issues
• based on analyses of emerging sciences and technologies and
the horizons that they will open up
• embedded in the wider development context and linked to the
wider innovation process
• more comprehensive than modelling based on present
assumptions about what research can deliver

7. Foresight as an answer
“Improved foresight is essential if development needs and future actions
are to be prioritized and to create a clear view of new challenges as
they begin to emerge “
GCARD Roadmap (2011)
Foresight provides a means to “improve the prioritization and focus of
agricultural research and create more relevant and effective innovation
systems that are embedded in the needs of the societies that they
serve”
Science Forum 2011, Beijing

8. What is Foresight?
Academic Definition…
“A SYSTEMATIC, PARTICIPATORY,
future-intelligence-gathering and
medium-to-long-term vision-building
process aimed at enabling present-day
DECISIONS and mobilising joint
ACTIONS”
(http://forlearn.jrc.ec.europa.eu/index.htm)
Alternative Definition…
“Part of the job of modern
MANAGEMENT”
(Anyone with common sense)

9. Foresight –what does it involve?
"Thinking the Future",
"Debating the Future" and
"Shaping the Future"
• Participatory, inclusive
• Joint systemic understanding of the
current situation and how it can
evolve in the future
• Alternative futures, medium to long term
• Systematic and creative process to enable
participants to jointly see what is possible, probable
and preferred
• Action-oriented, shaping the future today
• Vision building process aiming at present day
decisions and to mobilise joint actions

10. Foresight – what is it?
•It is not about PREDICTING the future, but invites us
to consider the future as SOMETHING WE CAN
CREATE through the actions we take today
•It is also a collective LEARNING PROCESS with a
view to long-term strategic decision making
•COMPLEMENTS more traditional ways of looking at
the future, such as projections and modelling
•An open and INCLUSIVE mechanism to enable all
relevant stakeholders have their say in shaping
preferred futures
•Seeks to create shared VISIONS of the future, visions
that stakeholders are willing to endorse by the
actions they chose to take today
•A crucial function in preparing for the FUTURE

11. Who does Foresight?
Foresight provides a dynamic capability to succeed in a changing
environment and managers at every level or organization of business and
society have dedicated Foresight teams…
Institutional and Corporate Level
• Shell: New Lens Scenarios
• Siemens: “Pictures of the Future” available at
www.siemens.com/pof
• Teagasc: Teagasc 2030, a permanent Foresight and Strategy unit
Sectoral Level
• Sea Change: The Irish Department of the Marine
• SCAR: The EU Standing Committee on Agricultural Research
(SCAR)
National Level
• Finland: Government Foresight 2030 - a report on sustainable
growth and well-being in Finland
• UK: UK Foresight Programme http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight
• South Korea: Korea is conducting the fourth technology foresight
(TF) on the future Korean society up to the year 2035
Regional Level
• Regional Foresight: The BMW Region of Ireland
•EU: Foresight and the use of Foresight tools well established in the
Framework Programme (FP)

12. Foresight in Europe
• Foresight activities are considered a necessary policy response to the
current environment of accelerated socio-economic and technological
changes
• Enables policy makers to look into the future in order to identify and choose
among policy options as well as to shape long-term policies and actions
• A specialist unit (The Knowledge for Growth Unit of JRC-IPTS) provides the
forward looking intelligence to support decision making and enhancing the
use of Foresight as an instrument for policy making in Europe
• The focus is increasingly on more policy-relevant Foresight application and
methodology development, particularly by developing approaches to the
early identification of emerging issues that will have an impact on European
policies

13. Foresight in Europe
Stage 1: The Forward Studies Unit … and the JRC …
Stage 2: The DG Research Foresight Unit …
Stage 3: The focus of capability development
(BLUEPRINTS…)
Stage 4: Foresight integrated as a practice at all levels of the
FP…
How does the 5% of the FP have an impact on the whole of
Europe?
By continuously evolving the role of the FP …
By complementing, completing and structuring the ERA …
Variable Geometry instruments…

15. The ERA and transnational cooperation
The development of ERA is needed to overcome the fragmentation of research in
Europe along national and institutional barriers. Fragmentation prevents Europe
from fulfilling its research and innovation potential, at a huge cost to Europeans
as taxpayers, consumers, and citizens
• Creating the European Research Area (ERA) requires open coordination of
visions of the future of science, technology and society, which can be
achieved through cooperative Foresight
• The ERA is critical to building a structure aimed at the coordination of
research activities and the convergence of research and innovation policies,
at national and EU levels
• Joint Programming is one mechanism used in improving research
cooperation within Europe, and in enhancing the efficiency and impact of
national public research funding
• It does so by providing a mechanism for effective partnership between
those involved in the development and implementation of national research
programmes in Member States

16. Horizon 2020 proposal – Societal Challenge
Horizon 2020 :The EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation 2014-2020
Focus on societal challenges facing EU society, e.g. food security, health, clean energy and
transport
Food Security Challenge:
Sustainable and competitive agri-food sector for a safe and healthy diet
Consumer needs for safe, healthy and affordable food have to be
addressed, while considering the impacts of food consumption behaviour
and food and feed production on human health and the total
ecosystem…. This approach will contribute to…
• (a) food safety and security…
• (b) decreasing the burden of food- and diet-related diseases by
promoting the shift towards healthy and sustainable diets, via
consumer education and innovations in the food industry…

17. JRC Foresight study feeding into Horizon 2020
“The JRC will establish a corporate function with the goal of providing anticipatory
intelligence through corporate horizon scanning, foresight activities and analyses to
efficiently support the JRC future areas of work and consequent work programme activities “
JRC Strategy 2010-2020
New Foresight Study:
“Tomorrow’s healthy society – research priorities for foods and diets”
Objectives of the Foresight study:
• Identify challenges and relevant drivers of future
societal developments relevant for provision and
consumption of beneficial foods and diets
• Identify research and innovation priorities that
support the provision and consumption of foods
and diets for health and well-being
• Support the implementation of Horizon 2020

18. SCAR Foresight
• The future of Europe and European agriculture on the world market will
largely depend on its ability to cope with new challenges, which cannot be
addressed simply by applying trends of the past
• The Standing Committee on Agricultural Research (SCAR) started in 2006
a foresight process
• Agreed that better coordination of research was essential to enable Europe
to successfully face the profound changes that lie ahead for the agricultural
sector
• This foresight process aims to identify futures scenarios for European
agriculture (20-30 year perspective), to be used in the identification of
medium/long term research priorities to support the developing European
Knowledge-Based Bio-Economy.
• The experience gained through the SCAR foresight process has shown the
importance of, and need for, an early warning system that allows policy
makers and researchers to clearly anticipate the challenges and problems
that we may face in the years to come, and to suggest ways of tackling
them

19. CAADP and CGIAR -critical areas for increased alignment
• Defining key AR4D priorities and actions, driven by evolving national,
regional and global development needs
• Ensuring equitable partnership and accountability among all
stakeholders in agricultural innovation and developmental change
• Achieving increased investments in human, institutional and financial
resources for AR4D systems to meet demands in development
• Developing required human and institutional capacities for generation,
access and effective use of agricultural knowledge in development
• Coordinating linkages relating innovation to development
programmes and policies
GCARD Roadmap (2011)

20. The Global Foresight Hub

21. The GFAR Global Foresight Hub
• Foresight Academy chapters will be established to address future needs in
national and regional contexts
• Coordinated foresight actions established at international level to stimulate
and integrate diverse analyses of key issues and their projections
• Current and future AR4D agenda and priority setting at National, Regional
and Global levels to be an evolutionary and inclusive process among all
AR4D stakeholders, based on use of the best available knowledge
• Future agricultural scenarios projected by multi-stakeholder cross-
referenced analyses, to better identify new knowledge needs and shape
research required

22. Take home messages
Foresight offers a solution to the challenge of
• identifying research priorities
• building an effective innovation system
Foresight has long been used by the EU as an input to policy development and in
the implementation of research programmes
Foresight can help underpin the implementation of the Agriculture Science Agenda
for Africa
The GFAR proposal for a Global Foresight Academy would facilitate the building of
an independent forward-thinking capacity in Africa