This note explains how to turn the outputs from the scenario building process into an agenda for action through the presentation of 2 real cases. This document was used by Robin Bourgeois, Senior Foresight Advisor, GFAR Secretariat for the "Grassroots Foresight initiative - Training of Resource persons Participatory Prospective Analysis –Scenario Building." This workshop was held on February 1-7, 2015 in Quezon City, The Philippines. Check out "Empowering local organisations through foresight" by Robin Bourgeois at: http://bit.ly/17GoTt4

1. Methodological note
S3.8: From scenarios to action
A critical point in the use of local foresight is to turn the outputs from the scenario building process
into an agenda for action. Publicizing and fostering debates on the scenarios beyond the group of
experts actively engaged in their production is important and necessary. Two cases presented
below show how this helped to move towards action plans. Some systematic reflection can also be
engaged on linking the futures with the present though a back-casting approach, also presented
thereafter.
Publicizing scenarios and fostering debates in Indonesia
The story below comes from the work done in Indonesia in two districts. It shows how making
scenarios public led to a commitment to develop action plans.
“Public consultations and workshops with all stakeholders were conducted at both sites at village and
regency level. In Kapuas Hulu, 120 people from 20 villages and 60 regency level representatives
agreed that the Steps in harmony scenario would be the most desirable outcome for the future. In
Central Maluku regency, 60 people from 19 villages and 25 stakeholders chose The sun is shining in
Seram Island as their desired scenario.
Most participants expressed their concern that some of these less desirable scenarios (Throw the coin
but hide the hand and Panning for gold but getting stones in Kapuas Hulu and Poor in your own
country and Endless struggle in Central Maluku) were already playing out. Scenarios two and three
from Central Maluku described the current land use situation in the Regency, yet represented
“business as usual” evolutions.
Although participants expressed some skepticism regarding the likelihood of the most “idealistic”
scenarios actually playing out, all stakeholders expressed hope that they could be achieved.
Participants were asked to consider how desirable scenarios could be realized while minimizing the
likelihood of the undesirable scenarios playing out. They responded that PPA might be used during
development and land use planning, in order to envision and bring about their desired future
scenarios.
While discussing the future development of Kapuas Hulu, the majority of stakeholders reiterated the
importance of customary law and local wisdom in the development process. Although they felt that
customary law is able to enforce social norms, participants were doubtful of its capacity to secure
land rights and prevent land appropriation by large-scale investors.
Testing the scenarios through a series of public and awareness meetings and workshops at sub-
regency, regency and provincial level did not only serve to validate our results, but also prompted
participants to consider future action. During these meetings, stakeholders shared their perceptions
of desired and undesired scenarios. They were also prompted to consider actions which might bring
about change.
A system map of action plan was developed for both sites. It contains not only guideline for
implementation for desired scenarios but also preventive and anticipatory actions for undesired
scenarios. Arranging proposed action into a network map provides an integrated view of actions, one
action could achieve with condition other actions achieved as well.

2. 2
Regent
regulation
on
customary
rights
Communi
ty forestry
Land use survey
Identify NGOs
partnership with
NGOs
Revised spatial
plan
CSR program
Stakeholders
dialog
customary
institutions
Customary
right
boundary
Central Maluku
In Central Maluku, regent regulation on
customary rights will lead to spatial plan
revision through strengthen customary right
boundary and land use survey. In Kapuas
Hulu, promoting scenario to be integrated in
medium term development plan achieve
through facilitate multi stakeholder dialog
and collect aspiration from community at
landscape level. Proposed action plan has
also been consulted to key decision makers
such as head of regency and parliament
members for obtaining their support.”
Source: Bayuni Shantiko, CIFOR
Publicizing scenarios and fostering debates in Mayotte
In Mayotte, expanding the reflection on the future of agriculture and the rural world beyond the
group of experts mobilized for the scenario building process was planned since the beginning of the
work. The objectives were:
 to avoid confining the results to the group of experts
 to give a larger societal dimension to the work
 enable the expression of public preferences
 contribute to negotiate a shared vision, based on convergences and taking into account
differences among diverse stakeholders
In order to achieve these objectives, the group of experts decided to engage in publicizing and
fostering debates with a wider audience, identifying two types of audience. The first audience was a
sample of the population of Mayotte, approached through individual surveys conducted by
members of the expert group. Almost 350 were interviewed, ensuring diversity in gender, age, socio-
professional activity and place of residence. The second audience consisted in the organizations and
agencies involved in rural development, both public and private organizations and associations. The
objective was to enable these organizations to express internally and collectively their views in
relation to the work. Communication material was produced with the aid experts to determine the
nature of the most appropriate medium to bring the results expected from the audience.
Four types of pictorial materials were produced (see Annex 15).
• A4 size folders with figures and narratives
• Laminated A3 size images of the scenarios and narratives on A4 hard copies
• Posters grouping nine A3 size scenarios on a wooden stand
• Nine 1,2x0,8 m posters of scenarios and narratives on A4 hard copies
• Audio-visual slide shows in French and local language
For individual surveys, a survey guide and a data collection form were produced. The forms were
anonymous but recorded the general characteristics of the contacted population (gender, age group,
activities, and geographical location) in order to ensure the desired diversity. The information
collected from the people contacted concerning i) their reaction to the images presented and their
significance, ii) their proposals for alternative images and iii) preferences expressed through their
reactions and proposals.

3. 3
The same points were discussed during the meetings with the organizations. Each meeting resulted
in a report. These reports were the basis for a synthesis highlighting elements for the construction of
a shared vision on the role of agriculture and rural areas in Mayotte. These elements were two-fold:
• Elements of consensus constituted by all the points on which there was agreement between the
various stakeholders. It formed the platform on which to build the vision.
• Elements of negotiation consisting in the points on which there were differences between the
parties concerned.
The final synthesis was an 8-page memorandum for public action in favour of agriculture and rural
development in Mayotte.
An example of the communication support used in Mayotte
Unveiling the pathways to the scenarios: “back-casting”
A practical approach to unveil a pathway leading to each plausible future is to work “backwards”
from the future to the present, identifying what is needed to make that future happening. This
approach is also called “back-casting”. Back-casting is the process of working backwards from the
definition of a possible future, in order to determine what needs to happen to make this future
unfold and connect to the present.
The key issue is to develop the paths leading from the current situation to the future scenarios with
consistent concrete steps leading to these futures. This has to be undertaken for each scenario as

4. 4
this will help identifying not only the actions to be taken in order to increase the chances for a
desired scenario to happen but also those which would help prevent undesirable scenarios to occur.
Drawing a direct path from the current situation to the future situations is usually more difficult than
doing it in a reverse way starting from the futures and developing a backward track back to the
present. This method is called “backcasting”. Through backcasting the immediate actions needed
just before the final situation is realised are identified and this process is re-iterated until reaching
back the current situation. Backcasting helps to avoid the risk of defining short term actions which
seems to be able to lead to an expected future but might have unexpected and undesirable effects
later.
To make backcasting interactive, according to the principles of this grassroots foresight initiative,
this work has to be done by the participants who have contributed to the building of the scenarios.
 The preliminary step to prepare interactive backcasting is to ensure all scenarios are
completed in order to provide a comprehensive view of the plausible futures.
 Then a scenario is selected and taken as the starting point;
 Then the outcomes that need to be achieved along the way starting from the scenario are
identified;
 Then the main changes needed to achieve these outcomes are identified as well as obstacles
and opportunities;
 Then the main actors and their roles in the production of these outcomes are identified;
 Finally policy instruments and institutions needed to bring about the transition are
discussed.
Hints (see figure below):
 Start with participants with the future states of the driving forces of the selected scenario
and compare them to the current state of the same driving forces. Then track back what
changes would be needed to happen for a given present state to be transformed into the
future state, applying the above-mentioned process.
 Repeat this analysis for each of the driving force of the selected scenario
 Cross-check results after completing this analysis for all the driving forces to identify possible
inconsistencies in the outcomes and actions which would possibly lead to unexpected
effects and contradictions. Integration of the intermediate outcomes and actions make the
resulting pathway for a given scenario much more robust.
 Repeat this process for each scenario
 Compare the results and identify a robust strategy orienting actions toward desired
scenarios and avoiding taking steps to the direction of undesired scenarios.

5. 5
The result of this work is a robust strategy consisting in a practical programme of action elaborated
by the stakeholders themselves, where immediate steps, needed change, and key actors are
identified.
The final step is to engage in the implementation of the immediate actions through committing
resources.
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario …
Scenario n
State of Force 1
State of Force 2
State of Force 3
…
State of Force n
Present situation
Current state
Current state
Current state
Current state
Current state
2. Repeat for each other
driving force
1. Do Backcasting to go from the future state
of driving force 1 to its current state:
What needs to be achieved along the way;
What changes need to happen to achieve that
Who are the main actors and their role
What policy instruments and institutions are needed
What are the immediate actions (next 5 years)
3. Determine the pathway to scenario1
Compare results across driving forces
Integrate the changes for all driving forces
4. Repeat 1, 2, and 3
for each scenario
5. Determine the strategic elements
Compare results from each pathway
Find common actions across pathways
Identify actions in favour of desired scenario
Identify actions against undesired scenarios
6. Design a programme of action
A chronology of changes needed
The main actors and their role
The policy instruments and institutions needed
A chronology of actions including immediate steps