The document provides information on identifying and evaluating threats, including determining the threat's objectives, analyzing capabilities and weaknesses, developing possible courses of action (COAs), and modeling threat COAs. Key steps discussed are identifying the threat and why it fights, studying the insurgency's organization and tactics, capturing the disposition and composition of forces, and prioritizing the most probable and most dangerous COAs.

1. Know Your Threat Leadership Ideology External Support Environment/ Geography Objectives Target Selection Organizational/ Operational Patterns Phasing/ Timing Attributes of The Threat

2. Identify the Threat Why do insurgents fight? - Patriotism - Ideology - Religion - Financial Gain Study the Insurgency - Origin & History - Support among populace - Organization - Inter-Operative Networks - Operational Tactics

3. Enemy Analysis Capabilities Vulnerabilities Requirements Examples: Money Technical know-how Bomb making supplies Vehicles Compliant population Suicide bombers Examples: Key individuals Caches VBIED Factories Examples: Information dissemination VBIEDs External support Hide within population Where do we start? Step 3 - Evaluate the Threat (1-2) What must the enemy do/have to accomplish his objectives? What resources does the enemy have available? What shortfalls does the enemy have between capabilities and his requirements?

4. Enemy Analysis Examples: Emplacers Builders Financiers Triggermen Another method… Who Is attacking? Organizing? Directing? What Are their objectives? Methods? Techniques? When Do they emplace? Attack? Where Have they attacked? Will they attack in the Future? Do they store? Assemble? Get supplies? Why Do they Attack coalition? Locals? Examples: RCIED Complex Baited ambush Examples: Day Night Before/ after clearing Examples: Previous attacks Examples: Personal gain Money Power Revenge Step 3 - Evaluate the Threat (2-2)

5. Disposition  Location  Tactical deployment Where they are & What they are doing Includes:

6. Composition Who they are & What they have 24 134/10 1 2 2/28/134 Unit Identification Organization I X

7. Strength Includes:  Personnel  Equipment  Weapon Systems

8. Threat Capabilities Tactics Combat Effectiveness Training Sustainment Tech Data Misc Data Order of Battle Factors

9. The Enemy – Big to Small 3 14 15 23 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 xx xx xx xx III III III III II II II II 10 T-80 29 BMP 10 T-80 29 BMP 10 T-80 29 BMP 10 T-80 29 BMP 5th OSC

10. The Enemy – Total Combat Power 40 x T80 116 x BMP2 12 x AT5 6 x AT5(D) 6 x 2A45M 100 Inf (Air Insert) 100 Inf (Truck) 100 Inf (FD) 6 x 2S6 3 x SA-18 4 x MSD FSD AT CO MOD 2/24 1/24 (+) 24 III 14 x T80 35 x BMP2 6 x AT5 3 x 2A45M 100 Inf (FD) 3 x 2S6 1 x MSD 10 x T80 29 x BMP2 3 x AT5 3 x 2A45M 1-2 x 2S6 1 x MSD 3 x T80 8 x BMP2 1 x AT5 3 x 2A45M 2 x AT5 1 x UMZ 1 x GMZ 9 x T80 27 x BMP2 1 x 2S6 1 x MSD 7 x T80 22 x BMP2 1 x 2S6 1 x MSD 3/24 I I (-) 4/24 I I (-)

11. Enemy Strengths/Weaknesses Heavily reliant upon ground based recon Effective ground based recon Intel Weakness Strength WFF Limited available artillery systems; targeting reliant upon HUMINT Counter-fire radar (45km range) Dedicated sensor-to-shooter link at MID 75% rounds fired RAP/ext FS Modern T-80 tanks (2500m MG, AT-8) equipped w/ thermal imaging BMP-2 - All are TIS equip & stab M2 Limited range of ADA systems; minimal threat to fixed-wing aircraft Dedicated engineer support at all levels; Significant mobile ADA either self-propelled or shoulder-fired; night capable ADA. Protection Heavily reliant upon retrans due to terrain FM Single Channel Encrypted C2 Critical shortage of POL; limited repair parts for tanks; limited ammunition for tanks and artillery Sustainment

12. From Order of Battle Data and Threat Model Threat Capabilities - what the threat can accomplish

13. Identify Threat Capabilities ( Can the enemy dance?) Four tactical COAs open to military forces in conventional operations: Attack Defend Reinforce Conduct a retrograde Broad COAs can be divided into a variety of more specific COAs.

14. WFF Capabilities (Equipment and Capabilities) Examples of these types of capabilities are-- Use of NBC weapons. Use of supporting air assets. Intelligence collection. Electronic Warfare. Engineering operations. Air assault or airborne operations. Amphibious assaults. Psychological operations (PSYOP). Deception operations.

15. Doctrinal Template Illustrate the deployment pattern and disposition preferred by the threat's normal tactics when not constrained by the effects of the battlefield environment. Usually scaled graphic depictions of threat dispositions for a particular type of standard operation

16. Depicts how the enemy would like to fight without terrain restriction EA ... ... Doctrinal Template

17. Unconventional Doctrinal Templates Unconventional operations can also be depicted using a doctrinal template. For example a drug trafficking ring that transports large amounts of drugs my use certain convoy procedures, such as the distance between vehicles, how many vehicles, where security forces are placed and how many are in the convoy, and how the security force will react to a police force

20. Examples Include: Integrated Attack Dispersed Attack Limited Objective Attacks Sophisticated Ambush Spoiling Attack Counterattack Raid Doctrinal Template Maneuver Defense Area Defense Integrated Decentralized Strike

21. Description of Tactics and Options Operations of the major units or elements portrayed on the template Activities of the different battlefield operating systems Listing or description of options available to the threat should the operation fail (branches), or subsequent operations if it succeeds (sequels)

22. Determine Threat COAs Identification and development of likely threat COAs that will influence accomplishment of the friendly mission Identification of those areas and activities that, when observed, will discern which COA the threat commander has chosen Determine Threat COAs [Situation Templates & Event Template] Identify the threats likely objectives and desired end state Identify the full set of COAs available to the threat Evaluate and prioritize each COA Develop each COA in the amount of detail time allows Identify initial collection requirements FM 34-130, 1994, p. 2-39 thru 2-40 IPB Step 4

23. Most Probable (MPCOA) Most Dangerous (MDCOA) All Additional ECOA Final Assessments Step 4 - Determine Threat COAs Define the Battlefield Environment Describe the Battlefield's Effects Evaluate the Threat Determine Threat COAs

24. Identify Threat’s Likely Objectives and Endstate Strategic: The level of war at which a nation, group of nations, or an international organization, determine security objectives and guidance. Operational: The level of war at which campaigns and major operations are planned and executed (OSC and DTG). Tactical: The level of war at which battles and engagements are planned and executed (BTG and IMG). Activities at this level focus on the maneuver of combat elements in relation to each other and the enemy.

25. Identify Threat’s Likely Objectives and End State What does the enemy seek to do to us? How does the enemy define success? How can we deny him success?

26. Identify Threat COAs Brainstorm all possible options for the enemy Analyze recent activities -- what does it mean? Analyze battlefield environment impact An Enemy COA must meet the following criteria: suitable : has the potential to accomplish the mission and meet the enemy commander’s intent feasible : capability to accomplish mission – physical resources acceptable : level of risk distinguishable : significantly different from other COAs; by use of reserves, task organization, Scheme of Maneuver or Scheme of Defense Consistent with doctrine

27. Identify Threat COAs Identify: task - Enemy’s mission purpose - Commander’s Intent method – by BOS endstate – what the enemy has done to friendly forces and their status Analyze how COA address 8 forms of contact: visual, direct, indirect, non-hostile, obstacles, aircraft, CBRNE, EW Define vulnerabilities Define center of gravity, decisive point, and culminating point Define main and supporting efforts Capabilities HVTs

28. THREAT COA MODEL Threat COA Model – A model of one COA available to the threat. It consists of a graphic depiction ( situational template ); a description ( narrative or matrix ); and a listing of assets important to the success of the COA ( HVTs ). The degree of detail in the model depends on available time. At a minimum, the COA models address the five standard elements of a COA: WHAT (the type of operation), WHEN (the earliest time the operation can begin), WHERE (boundaries, axis) , HOW (the use of assets), and WHY (the desired end-state).

29. Prepare COA Statements and Sketches Sketch : visualization product At a minimum sketch should include: - Planning HQs, and subordinate unit boundaries - Allocated forces - Ground and air avenues of approach - Zones of attack of defense sectors - AAs, BPs, OBJs, obstacles - FEBA or LD/LC - Provide terrain for clarity

30. ENEMY COURSE OF ACTION MISSION: INTENT: TASK ORG: TASK & PURPOSE: RECON: FS: C2: Decision to execute COA 2 based on read by DTG Recon of defensive prep on AA3B. Reconstitute assault force upon its destruction in battalion on Route White has not been defeated. The 202 BTG attacks to destroy friendly forces NLT XX2100JUN01 in order to fix enemy and prevent the BDE from counter-attacking the DTG exploitation force. Move rapidly through the AOR to gain contact with the enemy. Fix enemy forces in prepared defensive positions. Assault force defeats northern battalion in east while exploitation force destroys battalion in west IVO Kill Zone 2. I E I I 18 X 2S1 I I 18 X 2S3 X 202 22 I I I I DISRUPTION ZONE Recon Det: T: ID enemy defensive positions P: ID HPTs and determine best route for exploitation force. BATTLE ZONE Fixing Force: T: Destroy enemy forces on AA 3C & 4B. P: Prevent enemy forces from attacking BTG main effort the exploitation force. Assault Force T: Defeat enemy forces in east. P: Prevent action against the exploitation force and attrit enemy forces in the battle zone. Exploitation Force T: Destroy enemy battalion IVO Kill Zone 2. P: Fix enemy BCT and prevent attack on DTG exploitation force. Initially set to support Recon Fires. Facilitate movement of recon det. and destroy Q36 or Q37 Radar. O/O shift to destroy enemy in contact w/ assault force. O/O shift to destruction fires ISO exploitation force. Identify MDL to facilitate commitment of ME. Identify HPTs for destruction w/ reconnaissance fires. Identify reserve for disruption by fire support assets. X XXX XII X PL ZINC PL GOLD X Kill Zone 2 Kill Zone 1 I I (+) X PL SILVER I I (+) I I (-) KALMAL I I (+) I ASSAULT EXPLOITATION Kill Zone 3 BTG Attack Zone BTG Battle Zone

31. PL TIM 3 X 2 X 3 X PL DAVE (FEBA) PL LARRY PL ROGER (FLOT/IHOL) ECOA Sketch EXAMPLE 1-5 II 4-64 II II HVTs by Phase: Recon/INF Fight - AT5s, BMPs, BRDMs 2S5s, Inf LD - POP Fight - ENG assets, BMPs 2S19s, ARK 1, BM21s POP - ENG assets, BMPs, 2S1s, T80s MISSION Statement: who, what, when, where why. RECON T: ZONE RECON P: LOCATE BLUFOR CO PSNs/ HPTS INF T: SEIZE KEY TERRAIN ; DESTROY ENEMY COMPANY TEAM P: SUPPORT MAIN BODY AT THE POINT OF PENETRATION DISRUPT T: SEIZE KEY TERRAIN; FIX ENEMY FORCES P: PREVENT REPOSITIONING/MASSING FIXING T: DESTROY CO TEAMS/ FIX KEY FORCES P: PREVENT REPOSITIONING/MASSING/PROTECT FLANKS ASSAULT T: DESTROY CO TEAMS P: PROTECT FLANK OF EXPLOIT/ESTABLISH BREACH EXPLOIT T: PENETRATE ENEMY BPs, DESTROY KEY NODES/RESERVE P: FACILITATE DEEP PENETRATION / DENY CBT OPNS SPT IFC T: DESTROY MECH, ENG, & INF FORCES/SUPPRESS ARMOR P; DISRUPT DEFENSE T: CONDUCT COUNTERFIRE, DESTROY DEEP HPTS, FASCAM P: DESTROY FS, HPTS, AND DELAY COUNTERATTACK II II Destroyer AT-5 100 INF 3 ATs Angel AT-5 100 INF 3 ATs DISRUPT 4/12/3 ASSAULT 12/32/0 FIX 6/16/2 EXPLOIT 10/28/1 EXPLOIT 10/28 0715 MB. 210545 CRP’s 201900APR BDE RECON 191830APR DIV RECON 0600 FSE 0630 AGMB 2S1 BN ATTACK TIMELINE AT LD 0645 BRAG DAG Emplaced

32. PL TIM 3 X 2 X 3 X PL DAVE (FEBA) PL LARRY PL ROGER (FLOT/IHOL) ECOA Sketch EXAMPLE CONTINUED 1-5 II 4-64 II II IFC HVTs by Phase: Recon/INF Fight - AT5s, BMPs, BRDMs 2S5s, Inf LD - POP Fight - ENG assets, BMPs 2S19s, ARK 1, BM21s POP - ENG assets, BMPs, 2S1s, T80s MISSION Statement: who, what, when, where why. Total Number 18 2S1s 18 2S19s 18 2S5s 18 BM21s 6 Hinds Special Munitions 6 NP 1 PCHEM 2 FASCAM RECON T: ZONE RECON P: LOCATE BLUFOR CO PSNs/ HPTS INF T: SEIZE KEY TERRAIN ; DESTROY ENEMY COMPANY TEAM P: SUPPORT MAIN BODY AT THE POINT OF PENETRATION DISRUPT T: SEIZE KEY TERRAIN; FIX ENEMY FORCES P: PREVENT REPOSITIONING/MASSING FIXING T: DESTROY CO TEAMS/ FIX KEY FORCES P: PREVENT REPOSITIONING/MASSING/PROTECT FLANKS ASSAULT T: DESTROY CO TEAMS P: PROTECT FLANK OF EXPLOIT/ESTABLISH BREACH EXPLOIT T: PENETRATE ENEMY BPs, DESTROY KEY NODES/RESERVE P: FACILITATE DEEP PENETRATION / DENY CBT OPNS SPT IFC T: DESTROY MECH, ENG, & INF FORCES/SUPPRESS ARMOR P; DISRUPT DEFENSE T: CONDUCT COUNTERFIRE, DESTROY DEEP HPTS, FASCAM P: DESTROY FS, HPTS, AND DELAY COUNTERATTACK II II NP NP NP NP … … BAG 2S19 2S19 2S1 IFC DAG BM-21 2S5 JTOC TOC 0715 MB. 210545 CRP’s 201900APR BDE RECON 191830APR DIV RECON 0600 FSE 0630 AGMB 2S1 BN ATTACK TIMELINE AT LD 0645 BRAG DAG Emplaced

33. Situation Template Depicts how the Enemy may deploy, employ and operate within constraints of battlefield conditions. A snap shot in time of a critical event. (SITEMP)

34. Enemy SOP (Threat Model) Environment (Terrain Weather) Enemy COA (SITEMP) I I I Fire Sac I I I Fire Sac

35. Changing Threat COAs Conventional Focus Requirement Identify the Threat’s likely and desired End State Identify the full set of COAs available to the threat Evaluate and prioritize each COA Develop each COA in the amount of detail time allows Identify initial collection requirements COIN Environment Considerations COA development becomes MUCH more complex due to: Available maneuver options 3-D battlefield Increase in friendly vulnerabilities. Limited attack options Increased Fratricide Risk Event-based vs. Maneuver-based COAs Collection requirements are difficult to focus until patterns develop

36. Most Probable Course of Action (MPCOA) - COA Sketch & Statement (Includes T, P, M, E, DP, CP) - SITEMP (brief T/P by subunit and/or BOS) - OBJ Blowup Sketch - High Value Targets (HVT) Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA) - Same as for MPCOA - Explain differences between MDCOA, MPCOA, and additional ECOAs FINAL ASSESSMENTS - Enemy Strengths & How to Overcome - Enemy Weaknesses & How to Exploit - How Best to Assault the OBJ - Weaknesses of the Enemy at the OBJ - Best Use of Terrain to Assault the OBJ - Where should we attack/assault from, and why? Evaluate Threat COAs

37. Event-based vs. Maneuver-based COAs ISSUE - COAs may consist of linked singular events to reach a desired end-state vice conventional maneuver operations to destroy enemy forces and seize terrain. EVENTS INTENDED EFFECT DESIRED ENDSTATE Snipe Bombing Mortar Attack Observe Only Influence CF to withdraw and gain political control Loss of Public Support Lower Morale Operation too long Operation too costly

38. Products of IPB High Value Targets Define the Battlefield Environment Describe the Battlefield’s Effects Determine Threat Courses of Action Event Template Situation Template Modified Combined Obstacle Overlay Doctrinal Template Evaluate the Threat

39. Situation Templates Depiction of assumed threat dispositions, based on threat doctrine and the effects of the battlefield Normally, the situation template depict threat units two levels of command below the friendly force as well as the expected location of high value targets Situation templates use time phase lines (TPLs) to indicate movement of forces and the expected flow of the operation Prepare as many graphics as necessary to depict the COA in enough detail to support staff war gaming and collection planning Tailor the situation templates to your needs by focusing on the factors that are important to the commander or mission area A situation might focus only on the treat’s reconnaissance assets, depicting details such as location and movement routes of these assets, their likely employment area, and their likely NAIs FM 34-130, 1994, p. 2-45 & G-10

40. Time - Phase Lines Graphic means of comparing the enemy’s mobility capability along multiple avenues of approach / mobility corridors Based on doctrinal rates of movement and battlefield environment Initial TPL indicated as “H” at enemy FLOT Assist in tracking actual and potential enemy movement FM 34-130, 1994, p. 2-45 & G-10

41. Time Phase Lines Lines that provide a graphic means of comparing the enemy’s mobility along avenues of approach. Defined by doctrinal rates of movement Influenced by terrain, weather, and combat operations (enemy forces) Define deviations of doctrinal maneuver Assists in tracking the enemy and directing collection assets Rates of movement found in FM 34-130 App b4 6 Covering Force Area 5 Rear Area 2 Main Battle Area 20-30 KM Ideal Conditions 5-10 WX/terrain restricts Unopposed KM / Hour Situation

42. Reverse BOS IPB The entire staff contributes expertise to ECOA development and ISR planning and integration: Air Defense Evaluates likely air corridors. Likely timing of air strikes or air assault operations Likely targets and objectives of enemy air operations How enemy ADA will position to protect its forces Fire Support Where will the enemy deploy his artillery Where are enemy target acquisition assets (radars) Determine High Value Targets (HVT) How deep can his indirect fires range

43. Reverse BOS IPB Engineer Where will enemy emplace obstacles Time required to emplace each type of obstacle Time required to breach obstacles Time required to entrench a mechanized company Ability to bridge different size obstacles and time required NBC Threat capabilities to employ NBC weapons Threat NBC protection capabilities Types of delivery systems, including min and max range Indicators of preparations to employ NBC weapons Existing contaminated areas that may indicate a ECOA Friendly assets the enemy may target with NBC weapons

44. Reverse BOS IPB Signal Ability to locate or intercept friendly systems Speed that the enemy can collect, process and target C4I Ability to link collection systems to indirect fires Deployment patterns of SIGINT collection systems Techniques of electronic deception or network attack Civil Affairs What is the political situation in the AO What factions are friendly, neutral or threat Where are areas that civilians gather to protest or demonstrate Who or where is information gained on particular AOs?

45. Event Template A guide for collection and ISR planning Depicts where to collect the information that will indicate which COA the threat has adopted Differences between the NAIs, indicators, and TPLs associated with each COA form the basis of the event template Named area of interest (NAI) - the specific point, route, or area where key events are expected to occur; where information that will satisfy a specific information requirement can be collected; usually selected to capture indications of threat COAs but also may be related to conditions of the battlefield Indicator - positive or negative evidence of threat activity; activities which reveal the selected COA The initial event template focuses on identifying which of the predicted COAs the threat has adopted FM 34-130, 1994, p. 2-50, G-7 & G-8

46. Event Template 1 2 SITEMP 1 SITEMP 2 Consolidated SITEMP EVENT TEMPLATE 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 & 2 2 2 NAI 2 NAI 3 NAI 4 NAI 1

47. Example Event Temp H-Hr H-Hr H + 30 H + 60 H + 90 H +120 H +150 H + 30 H + 60 H + 90 H +120 H +150 NAI 8 NAI 6 NAI 2 NAI 4 NAI 1 NAI 3 NAI 7 Ea Smash NAI 9 NAI 5

48. Example of an Event Template

49. NAI LOCATION EN COA INDICATOR NET/ NLT PRIORITY PRIMARY/ ALTERNATE CONFIRMATION REMARKS EVENT MATRIX (S2) ISR MATRIX (S3) 1. Start with Situation Template 2. Determine Time Phase Lines (TPLs) and Mobility Corridors 3. Determine where events will occur that differentiate between EN COAs (these become NAIs) 4. Determine what action confirms or denies a particular EN COA (Indicators) 5. Determine when events will occur (NET/NLT) EVENT TEMPLATE 1 FL 123456 1 Bridging Operations H+30 H+1.5 2 FL 123456 1 Armor Assets H+15 H+2 3 FL 123456 2 Bridging Operations H+45 H=1.5