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Biodiversity Scenarios

              Methodological tools for developing
                    biodiversity scenarios



Ch. Le Page & C. Garcia
CIRAD / ETH Zürich – Mars 2013
Scénarios de Biodiversité – FRB Libreville
Forest Trees and Livelihoods – Session 8   March 27, 2013
Ecosystem


• Sir A. Tansley 1935
• the whole system […], including not only the
  organism-complex, but also the whole complex of
  physical factors […].
• The method of science […] is to isolate systems
  mentally for the purposes of study […]. The
  isolation is partly artificial, but is the only possible
  way in which we can proceed.
  Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité   March 27, 2013
Ecosystem
• Physical and biological systems
• Time and scale independent
• Intellectual construct




 Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité   March 27, 2013
Ecosystem




 Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité   March 27, 2013
Social and Ecological Systems




 Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité   March 27, 2013
Social and Ecological Systems


                                                Ecosystems
         Users




                                    Norms and
                                     Policies


 Forest Trees and Livelihoods – Session 8
                                        2            March 27, 2013
                                                      March 27, 2013
Social and Ecological Systems


                                                Ecosystems
         Users




                                    Norms and
                                     Policies


 Forest Trees and Livelihoods – Session 8
                                        2            March 27, 2013
                                                      March 27, 2013
Social and Ecological Systems


                                                Ecosystems
         Users




                                    Norms and
                                     Policies


 Forest Trees and Livelihoods – Session 8
                                        2            March 27, 2013
                                                      March 27, 2013
Probable and possible
   “Il est important de penser au futur, parce que nous sommes
        condamnés à passer avec lui le reste de notre vie”
                             W. Allen

                             The probable
       Predictions, forecasts and projections
                 futures that will be
                              The possible
                               Scenarios
                         futures that could be
Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité   March 27, 2013
• The purpose of scenario
  planning is not to pinpoint
  future events but to
  highlight large-scale
  forces that push the future
  in different directions.
• It's about making these
  forces visible
• It's about helping make
  better decisions today.
                                                    http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html

 Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité                            March 27, 2013
Scenario Planning: a Tool for
Conservation in an Uncertain World




           Peterson et al. 2003 Conservation Biology.

Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité        March 27, 2013
Why scenario planning?

Major benefits are :

1. Increased understanding of key
   uncertainties,
2. Incorporation of alternative perspectives
   into conservation planning,
3. greater resilience of decisions to surprise.

 Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité   March 27, 2013
                                                     Peterson et al., 2003
Why scenario planning?

Major benefits are :

1. Increased understanding of key
   uncertainties,
2. Incorporation of alternative perspectives
   into conservation planning,
3. greater resilience of decisions to surprise.

 Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité   March 27, 2013
                                                     Peterson et al., 2003
Scenario?
 A possible situation
 Business as usual
 Provocative alternative stories
 Key elements of uncertainty
 What will happen?
 What can happen?
 How do we get there?


 Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité   March 27, 2013
Scenarios


     Predictive                 Explorative                    Normative

Forecasts        What-if      External   Strategic        Preserving Transforming

 What will        What will   What can What can            How can      How can
  happen,         happen,      happen      happen           target        target
if the likely      if some       to the   if we act      be reached,   be reached,
  unfolds?        specified development in a certain          by        when the
                events occur? of external    way?        adjustments    prevailing
                               factors?                   to current    structure
                                                          situation?     blocks
                                                                        changes?
                                 Börjeson et al., 2006
Models and « scenarios »
 In the context of systems modelling, a scenario refers to a set
  of assumptions about the extrinsic drivers, parameters, and
                     structure of the model
Visualising – Artists impressions




Guarrigue after the energy crisis

                                    A green city in
                                    a Mediterranean forest




                  Urban pressure            Griffon et al, 2011
Visualising -   Graphic models



 1970                 Scenario 1




 1980                 Scenario 2




 1990                 Scenario 3
Visualising - Photoshop

                     Current landscape                   Historical landscape




Nature conservation scenario        Outdoor recitation scenario         Energy production scenario




                                                                                 Lindborg et al., 2009
Visualising - Computer
simulation model
                  Cooperation between farmers
Let Nature work       and National Park           Back to grassland




                                                Etienne et al., 2003
Scenario development

1. Identification of a focal issue
2. Assessment
3. Identification of alternatives
4. Building scenarios
5. Testing scenarios
6. Policy screening


                         Peterson et al., 2003
3

1       2
Forest Trees and Livelihoods – Session 8   March 27, 2013
Forest Trees and Livelihoods – Session 8   March 27, 2013
3

1       2
CoForTip
        Congo basin s
                    Forests:
                    Tipping points
for biodiversity conservation and resilience
  of forested social and ecological systems
Project Structure
                             CoForTips
                             Embedding Results
                                                                    Advisory
                                    WP 5:
                                   Fostering                         Group
                                    Dialog



                                  Program                          Steering
                                 Management
                                                                  Committee
                                   WP 0:
                                   Project
                                 Coordination
Identifying Tipping Points                         Constructing Scenarios
    WP 1:         WP 2:                               WP 3:         WP 4:
   Resilience   Drivers of                          Integrated   Biodiversity
  Landscapes     Change                              platform     scenarios

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Garcia & Lepage 2013 Methods for Scenario Development

  • 1. Biodiversity Scenarios Methodological tools for developing biodiversity scenarios Ch. Le Page & C. Garcia CIRAD / ETH Zürich – Mars 2013 Scénarios de Biodiversité – FRB Libreville
  • 2. Forest Trees and Livelihoods – Session 8 March 27, 2013
  • 3. Ecosystem • Sir A. Tansley 1935 • the whole system […], including not only the organism-complex, but also the whole complex of physical factors […]. • The method of science […] is to isolate systems mentally for the purposes of study […]. The isolation is partly artificial, but is the only possible way in which we can proceed. Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013
  • 4. Ecosystem • Physical and biological systems • Time and scale independent • Intellectual construct Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013
  • 5. Ecosystem Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013
  • 6. Social and Ecological Systems Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013
  • 7. Social and Ecological Systems Ecosystems Users Norms and Policies Forest Trees and Livelihoods – Session 8 2 March 27, 2013 March 27, 2013
  • 8. Social and Ecological Systems Ecosystems Users Norms and Policies Forest Trees and Livelihoods – Session 8 2 March 27, 2013 March 27, 2013
  • 9. Social and Ecological Systems Ecosystems Users Norms and Policies Forest Trees and Livelihoods – Session 8 2 March 27, 2013 March 27, 2013
  • 10. Probable and possible “Il est important de penser au futur, parce que nous sommes condamnés à passer avec lui le reste de notre vie” W. Allen The probable Predictions, forecasts and projections futures that will be The possible Scenarios futures that could be Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013
  • 11. • The purpose of scenario planning is not to pinpoint future events but to highlight large-scale forces that push the future in different directions. • It's about making these forces visible • It's about helping make better decisions today. http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013
  • 12. Scenario Planning: a Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World Peterson et al. 2003 Conservation Biology. Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013
  • 13. Why scenario planning? Major benefits are : 1. Increased understanding of key uncertainties, 2. Incorporation of alternative perspectives into conservation planning, 3. greater resilience of decisions to surprise. Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013 Peterson et al., 2003
  • 14. Why scenario planning? Major benefits are : 1. Increased understanding of key uncertainties, 2. Incorporation of alternative perspectives into conservation planning, 3. greater resilience of decisions to surprise. Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013 Peterson et al., 2003
  • 15. Scenario?  A possible situation  Business as usual  Provocative alternative stories  Key elements of uncertainty  What will happen?  What can happen?  How do we get there? Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013
  • 16. Scenarios Predictive Explorative Normative Forecasts What-if External Strategic Preserving Transforming What will What will What can What can How can How can happen, happen, happen happen target target if the likely if some to the if we act be reached, be reached, unfolds? specified development in a certain by when the events occur? of external way? adjustments prevailing factors? to current structure situation? blocks changes? Börjeson et al., 2006
  • 17. Models and « scenarios » In the context of systems modelling, a scenario refers to a set of assumptions about the extrinsic drivers, parameters, and structure of the model
  • 18. Visualising – Artists impressions Guarrigue after the energy crisis A green city in a Mediterranean forest Urban pressure Griffon et al, 2011
  • 19. Visualising - Graphic models 1970 Scenario 1 1980 Scenario 2 1990 Scenario 3
  • 20. Visualising - Photoshop Current landscape Historical landscape Nature conservation scenario Outdoor recitation scenario Energy production scenario Lindborg et al., 2009
  • 21. Visualising - Computer simulation model Cooperation between farmers Let Nature work and National Park Back to grassland Etienne et al., 2003
  • 22. Scenario development 1. Identification of a focal issue 2. Assessment 3. Identification of alternatives 4. Building scenarios 5. Testing scenarios 6. Policy screening Peterson et al., 2003
  • 23. 3 1 2
  • 24. Forest Trees and Livelihoods – Session 8 March 27, 2013
  • 25. Forest Trees and Livelihoods – Session 8 March 27, 2013
  • 26. 3 1 2
  • 27. CoForTip Congo basin s Forests: Tipping points for biodiversity conservation and resilience of forested social and ecological systems
  • 28. Project Structure CoForTips Embedding Results Advisory WP 5: Fostering Group Dialog Program Steering Management Committee WP 0: Project Coordination Identifying Tipping Points Constructing Scenarios WP 1: WP 2: WP 3: WP 4: Resilience Drivers of Integrated Biodiversity Landscapes Change platform scenarios

Editor's Notes

  1. Construction of integrated and provocative alternative dynamic stories that capture key ingredients of our uncertainty about the future of a study system
  2. Whatwillhappen? Whatcanhappen? How do wegetthere?
  3. 1. Identification of a focal issue2. Assessmentdetermination of what is known and unknown about the drivers that shape the system’s dynamics3. Identification of alternativespushing the boundaries of commonplace assumptions about the future by choosing 2-3 uncertain or uncontrollable driving forces4. Building scenariosScenarios (3-4) convert the key alternatives into dynamic stories (narratives) by adding a credible series of external forces and actors’ responses5. Testing scenariosSimulation models; stakeholderbehavior; expert opinion6. Policy screeningForum for policycreation and evaluation