Garcia & Lepage 2013 Methods for Scenario Development

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Claude Garcia

Lecture given at the "SCENARIOS OF BIODIVERSITY CHANGE IN AFRICA" workshop held in Libreville - March 25th-27th 2013.

Education

Biodiversity Scenarios

Methodological tools for developing
biodiversity scenarios

Ch. Le Page & C. Garcia
CIRAD / ETH Zürich – Mars 2013
Scénarios de Biodiversité – FRB Libreville

Forest Trees and Livelihoods – Session 8 March 27, 2013

Ecosystem

• Sir A. Tansley 1935
• the whole system […], including not only the
organism-complex, but also the whole complex of
physical factors […].
• The method of science […] is to isolate systems
mentally for the purposes of study […]. The
isolation is partly artificial, but is the only possible
way in which we can proceed.
Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013

Ecosystem
• Physical and biological systems
• Time and scale independent
• Intellectual construct

Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013

Ecosystem

Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013

Social and Ecological Systems

Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013

Social and Ecological Systems

Ecosystems
Users

Norms and
Policies

Forest Trees and Livelihoods – Session 8
2 March 27, 2013
March 27, 2013

Probable and possible
“Il est important de penser au futur, parce que nous sommes
condamnés à passer avec lui le reste de notre vie”
W. Allen

The probable
Predictions, forecasts and projections
futures that will be
The possible
Scenarios
futures that could be
Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013

• The purpose of scenario
planning is not to pinpoint
future events but to
highlight large-scale
forces that push the future
in different directions.
• It's about making these
forces visible
• It's about helping make
better decisions today.
http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html

Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013

Scenario Planning: a Tool for
Conservation in an Uncertain World

Peterson et al. 2003 Conservation Biology.

Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013

Why scenario planning?

Major benefits are :

1. Increased understanding of key
uncertainties,
2. Incorporation of alternative perspectives
into conservation planning,
3. greater resilience of decisions to surprise.

Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013
Peterson et al., 2003

Scenario?
 A possible situation
 Business as usual
 Provocative alternative stories
 Key elements of uncertainty
 What will happen?
 What can happen?
 How do we get there?

Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013

Scenarios

Predictive Explorative Normative

Forecasts What-if External Strategic Preserving Transforming

What will What will What can What can How can How can
happen, happen, happen happen target target
if the likely if some to the if we act be reached, be reached,
unfolds? specified development in a certain by when the
events occur? of external way? adjustments prevailing
factors? to current structure
situation? blocks
changes?
Börjeson et al., 2006

Models and « scenarios »
In the context of systems modelling, a scenario refers to a set
of assumptions about the extrinsic drivers, parameters, and
structure of the model

Visualising – Artists impressions

Guarrigue after the energy crisis

A green city in
a Mediterranean forest

Urban pressure Griffon et al, 2011

Visualising - Graphic models

1970 Scenario 1

1980 Scenario 2

1990 Scenario 3

Visualising - Photoshop

Current landscape Historical landscape

Nature conservation scenario Outdoor recitation scenario Energy production scenario

Lindborg et al., 2009

Visualising - Computer
simulation model
Cooperation between farmers
Let Nature work and National Park Back to grassland

Etienne et al., 2003

Scenario development

1. Identification of a focal issue
2. Assessment
3. Identification of alternatives
4. Building scenarios
5. Testing scenarios
6. Policy screening

Peterson et al., 2003

CoForTip
Congo basin s
Forests:
Tipping points
for biodiversity conservation and resilience
of forested social and ecological systems

Project Structure
CoForTips
Embedding Results
Advisory
WP 5:
Fostering Group
Dialog

Program Steering
Management
Committee
WP 0:
Project
Coordination
Identifying Tipping Points Constructing Scenarios
WP 1: WP 2: WP 3: WP 4:
Resilience Drivers of Integrated Biodiversity
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Title: Introduction to Environmental Science Description: This presentation for the introduction to environmental science is designed to provide students with a basic understanding of the subject. It begins with an overview of environmental science, which is defined as the interdisciplinary study of the natural world and the impact of human activities on it. This is followed by a description of the various fields encompassed by environmental science, including biology, geology, chemistry, physics, ecology, economics, sociology, and political science. The scientific method and its relevance to environmental science are explained in the next slide. The scientific method is a systematic approach to investigating phenomena in the natural world, and it involves making observations, asking questions, formulating hypotheses, conducting experiments or gathering data, analyzing the results, and drawing conclusions. Environmental scientists use the scientific method to study environmental phenomena, such as pollution, climate change, and conservation strategies. Followed by the concept of systems thinking as a way of understanding the world as interconnected systems, rather than as isolated parts. In environmental science, ecosystems are seen as complex networks of living and non-living components that interact with each other and with the environment. Systems thinking helps to identify the connections and impacts of human activities on the environment, leading to more effective solutions. Another slide focuses on the practical applications of environmental science in various fields, such as conservation biology, environmental policy, sustainable agriculture, renewable energy, pollution control, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. These applications have the potential to create a more sustainable and equitable future for all. In conclusion, the presentation on the introduction to environmental science aims to provide students with a broad understanding of the subject, its relevance, and its potential applications. It emphasizes the importance of scientific methods, systems thinking, and interdisciplinary collaboration in studying and solving environmental challenges.

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An Environment-Visualization System with Image-Based Retrieval and Distance C...

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Many environmental issues have occured in this world and these issues are common to all human beings. It is considered that environmental issues caused by humans exist in the “border” between nature and human society. In other words, there is the possibility that finding the “border” leads to determine the cause of environmental issues and discover the solution. This paper presents an environment-visualization system with image-based retrieval and distance calculation method as the first step of research for finding the “border”. We focused on the plastic garbage issue which is related to SDGs14 and this study was made to find the “border”, source of the plastic garbage which is scattered on the coast area. In addition, we aim to realize the system which enables people to share the knowledge about the plastic issue in order to acquire knowledge of the environment issues and to promote concrete action to realize sustainable nature and society

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PPT1: Environmental Science.pdf

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Garcia & Lepage 2013 Methods for Scenario Development

1. Biodiversity Scenarios Methodological tools for developing biodiversity scenarios Ch. Le Page & C. Garcia CIRAD / ETH Zürich – Mars 2013 Scénarios de Biodiversité – FRB Libreville

2. Forest Trees and Livelihoods – Session 8 March 27, 2013

3. Ecosystem • Sir A. Tansley 1935 • the whole system […], including not only the organism-complex, but also the whole complex of physical factors […]. • The method of science […] is to isolate systems mentally for the purposes of study […]. The isolation is partly artificial, but is the only possible way in which we can proceed. Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013

4. Ecosystem • Physical and biological systems • Time and scale independent • Intellectual construct Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013

5. Ecosystem Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013

6. Social and Ecological Systems Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013

7. Social and Ecological Systems Ecosystems Users Norms and Policies Forest Trees and Livelihoods – Session 8 2 March 27, 2013 March 27, 2013

8. Social and Ecological Systems Ecosystems Users Norms and Policies Forest Trees and Livelihoods – Session 8 2 March 27, 2013 March 27, 2013

9. Social and Ecological Systems Ecosystems Users Norms and Policies Forest Trees and Livelihoods – Session 8 2 March 27, 2013 March 27, 2013

10. Probable and possible “Il est important de penser au futur, parce que nous sommes condamnés à passer avec lui le reste de notre vie” W. Allen The probable Predictions, forecasts and projections futures that will be The possible Scenarios futures that could be Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013

11. • The purpose of scenario planning is not to pinpoint future events but to highlight large-scale forces that push the future in different directions. • It's about making these forces visible • It's about helping make better decisions today. http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013

12. Scenario Planning: a Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World Peterson et al. 2003 Conservation Biology. Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013

13. Why scenario planning? Major benefits are : 1. Increased understanding of key uncertainties, 2. Incorporation of alternative perspectives into conservation planning, 3. greater resilience of decisions to surprise. Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013 Peterson et al., 2003

14. Why scenario planning? Major benefits are : 1. Increased understanding of key uncertainties, 2. Incorporation of alternative perspectives into conservation planning, 3. greater resilience of decisions to surprise. Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013 Peterson et al., 2003

15. Scenario?  A possible situation  Business as usual  Provocative alternative stories  Key elements of uncertainty  What will happen?  What can happen?  How do we get there? Le Page & Garcia - FRB Scénarios de Biodiversité March 27, 2013

16. Scenarios Predictive Explorative Normative Forecasts What-if External Strategic Preserving Transforming What will What will What can What can How can How can happen, happen, happen happen target target if the likely if some to the if we act be reached, be reached, unfolds? specified development in a certain by when the events occur? of external way? adjustments prevailing factors? to current structure situation? blocks changes? Börjeson et al., 2006

17. Models and « scenarios » In the context of systems modelling, a scenario refers to a set of assumptions about the extrinsic drivers, parameters, and structure of the model

18. Visualising – Artists impressions Guarrigue after the energy crisis A green city in a Mediterranean forest Urban pressure Griffon et al, 2011

19. Visualising - Graphic models 1970 Scenario 1 1980 Scenario 2 1990 Scenario 3

20. Visualising - Photoshop Current landscape Historical landscape Nature conservation scenario Outdoor recitation scenario Energy production scenario Lindborg et al., 2009

21. Visualising - Computer simulation model Cooperation between farmers Let Nature work and National Park Back to grassland Etienne et al., 2003

22. Scenario development 1. Identification of a focal issue 2. Assessment 3. Identification of alternatives 4. Building scenarios 5. Testing scenarios 6. Policy screening Peterson et al., 2003

23. 3 1 2

24. Forest Trees and Livelihoods – Session 8 March 27, 2013

25. Forest Trees and Livelihoods – Session 8 March 27, 2013

26. 3 1 2

27. CoForTip Congo basin s Forests: Tipping points for biodiversity conservation and resilience of forested social and ecological systems

28. Project Structure CoForTips Embedding Results Advisory WP 5: Fostering Group Dialog Program Steering Management Committee WP 0: Project Coordination Identifying Tipping Points Constructing Scenarios WP 1: WP 2: WP 3: WP 4: Resilience Drivers of Integrated Biodiversity Landscapes Change platform scenarios

Editor's Notes

Construction of integrated and provocative alternative dynamic stories that capture key ingredients of our uncertainty about the future of a study system
Whatwillhappen? Whatcanhappen? How do wegetthere?
1. Identification of a focal issue2. Assessmentdetermination of what is known and unknown about the drivers that shape the system’s dynamics3. Identification of alternativespushing the boundaries of commonplace assumptions about the future by choosing 2-3 uncertain or uncontrollable driving forces4. Building scenariosScenarios (3-4) convert the key alternatives into dynamic stories (narratives) by adding a credible series of external forces and actors’ responses5. Testing scenariosSimulation models; stakeholderbehavior; expert opinion6. Policy screeningForum for policycreation and evaluation

Garcia & Lepage 2013 Methods for Scenario Development

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Editor's Notes