Dr. Totti Könnölä from Impetu Solutions waas invited to give a keynote speech on 'Opening Horizons: What kind of new approaches are available?' in the COST Foresight on Future Demand for Forest-based Products and Services: Dissemination Conference on September 13, 2011, in Sekocin Stary (Near Warsaw)/Poland.

1. Opening Horizons
What kind of new approaches are available?
Dr. Totti Könnölä, Impetu Solutions
II Key Note Session, COST Strategic Workshop
Foresight on Future Demand for Forest-based Products and Services
13 September 2011, Sekocin Stary/Poland

2. 1. Transformations
2. Towards New Foresight Systems
3. Towards New Methodologies
4. New Approaches in Practice
5. Conclusions

3. 1.Transformations
2. Towards New Foresight Systems
3. Towards New Methodologies
4. New Approaches in Practice
5. Conclusions

7. • Rarity
• Extreme impact
• Retrospective
predictability

8. Unpredictability vs. Taleb Distribution
(Taleb, 2011)
Kurtosis risk (long tail) +
Skewness risk (not evenly distributed)

9. Pareto Distribution and ‘80/20’ Rule

10. Twitter followers and Pareto
distribution

12. RESILIENT
SOCIETY?

13. Structure
1. Transformations
2.Towards New Foresight
Systems
3. Towards New Methodologies
4. New Approaches in Practice
5. Conclusions

14. The 4th International Seville Conference on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
12 & 13 May 2011
Building FTA capacities for systemic and structural
transformations: New FTA systems For anticipatory action in
a fast-changing world
Matthias Weber1, Jennifer Cassingena Harper2,
Totti Könnölä3, Vicente Carabias Barceló4
1 AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Austria;
2 Malta Council for Science and Technology, Malta;
3 Impetu Solutions, Spain
4 Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), Spain;

15. FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations
Types of Transformation
Rapid
Transformation
Disruptive
by design
transformation
(policy shocks)
Reactive Deliberate
Ongoing Transformation
processes of by design
transformation (transition)
Gradual
(Weber et al., 2011)

16. FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations
FTA Disruptive Grand Challenges Recognised Grand
Challenges
Rationales Addressing issues of high societal importance meeting criteria of relevance and
feasibility
- to identify the right level of specificity for actions;
- to build stakeholder engagement in a common vision for action.
Forms Early warning systems, scanning for weak Vision development;
signals; Scenario development (alternative
Examination of potential impacts evidence-based)
Interactions Internal between scientists; Wider participation involving public;
Cross-disciplinary between researchers in Multi-disciplinary;
breakthrough areas; Global perspective.
External – monitoring through expert and open
systems.
Processes 1. Intelligence Mapping by field, sector, 1. Intelligence Mapping by socio-
problem, vulnerability, or application; economic sector(s);
2. Political Decision on a Theme; 2. State of the art analysis of the
3. Funding of the Foresight Process; National Policies and Research
4. Scoping and Design: Defining the study and Capacity;
Committee(s) selection; 3. Production of Foresight Report:
5. Production of Foresight Report: Committee Committee Meetings, Information
Meetings, Information gathering, Deliberations gathering, Deliberations;
and Assessments of probability, impact, and 4. Evaluation of the Foresight Report;
risks; 5. Public Consultation to define the
6. Evaluation of the Foresight Report; most pressing societal problem(s);
7. Identification of Disruptive Grand Challenge 6. Identification of Recognised Grand
Areas: To lead to further investigation through Challenge Areas.
joint research programs.
Outcomes Shared Visions;
Large-scale, coordinated responses over time;
Joint programming.

17. FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations
Ideal-type models of FTA

18. FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations
Towards New FTA Systems

19. Structure
1. Transformations
2. Towards New Foresight Systems
3.Towards New Methodologies
4. New Approaches in Practice
5. Conclusions

20. Addressing the future
Long-term notions
of the good society
Desirable futures
Probable futures Possible futures
Likely temporal Unrealized but realisitic
development possibilities of problem
of societal problems solutions
(IPTS, 2009)

21. Forecasting to predict THE future
• The extrapolation of the most
probable trend.
– Big samples
– Time series
– Short to medium term
• Limited by the availability and
quality of the data
• Less suitable for addressing
issues with little or no historical
data.

22. Forecasting & Foresight
Forecasting
• The extrapolation of the most • Alternative scenarios of future
probable trend. developments to support
– Big samples decisions
– Quantitative and qualitative
– Time series
– Participatory
– Short-term
– Long-term
• Limited by the availability and • Learning & sense-making, not
quality of the data decision-making process
• Less suitable for addressing • Credibility gap between those
issues with little or no historical taking apart and for those not
data.

23. Integration

24. Web 2.0 for Foresight
From traditional to connected research
Figure 1: Connected research (Schillewaert et al, 2009).
From respondents to participants
From 1-to-1 learning to mutual learning and co-creation
Web 2.0 for Foresight (Haegeman et al, 2011)

25. 1. Transformations
2. Towards New Foresight Systems
3. Towards New Methodologies
4.New Approaches in Practice
5. Conclusions

26. The 4th International Seville Conference on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
12 & 13 May 2011
Facing the Future: Scanning, Synthesizing and
Sense-Making in Horizon Scanning
Totti Könnölä1, Ahti Salo2, Cristiano Cagnin3,
Vicente Carabias3, and Eeva Vilkkumaa2
1Impetu
Solutions, Madrid (Spain)
2Aalto University School of Science and
Technology, Espoo (Finland)
3JRC-IPTS, Seville (Spain)

27. Facing the Future
Horizon Scanning
creative process of collective sense-making by way of

28. Facing the Future
Key Questions in Horizon Scanning Activities

29. Facing the Future
Sense-making in Horizon Scanning

30. Facing the Future
Sense-making in Horizon Scanning

31. Facing the Future
Sense-making in Horizon Scanning

32. Facing the Future
Sense-making in Horizon Scanning

33. Facing the Future
Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010)

34. Facing the Future
Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010)

35. Facing the Future
Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010)
Identification of 381 Issues in 6 areas
• (i) 73 demography, migration and health issues
• (ii) 44 economy, trade and financial flows issues
• (iii) 90 environment, energy, climate change and agriculture issues
• (iv) 80 research, innovation and (e)-education issues
• (v) 52 (e)-governance and (e)-social cohesion issues
• (vi) 42 defence and security issues
• by analysing in each area 25 forward-looking reports and policy documents, which
had been recently published by international organisations or business sector,
covered more than one of six areas being analysed, exhibited global scope, and had
been developed using a participatory approach
Assessment of 381 issues on a seven-point Likert-scale
• Relevance to EU policy making
• Novelty in comparison with earlier policy deabates
• Probability of occurrence by 2025

36. Facing the Future
Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010)
Analysis of Issues
Mean-oriented analysis Rare event oriented analysis Variance-oriented analysis
Relevance > Novelty > Inverse probability > Novelty > Novelty > Relevance >
Probability (means) Relevance (means) Probability (variance)
 100% issues score best independent of the used criteria preferences
 50% issues that score well, but are sensitive to criteria preferences

37. Facing the Future
Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010)
Synthesizing Issues
Experts and policy-makers grouped in a workshop the identified issues into cross-
cutting challenges and examined their policy implications for the EU.
Save natural resources (water, food) to prevent conflicts over their scarcity and other impacts such
as migration
Area Issue Key words from the issue description (optional)
No. code
1 DI04 Massive migration due to climate change
3 ENV03 Global under-pricing and overconsumption of water
3 ENV68 Global decline of freshwater availability leading to an increase in water scarcity
3 ENV70 Global decline in biodiversity and loss of ecosystems services
6 DS13 Attacks on infrastructure facilities
6 DS15 A major war by 2020
6 DS81 Pervasive sensors for real-time surveillance widely diffused
Table 2 Example of a cross-cutting challenge consisting of issues from all three analyses and from different thematic
areas (Demography, Environment, and Defence & Security); font styles of issue codes refer to the results obtained in
the different RPM analyses (http://foresight.jrc.ec.europa.eu/survey_issues.pdf, visited 01/04/2011).

38. Facing the Future
Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010)
Synthesizing Issues
Participants generated collectively a diverse set of 22 cross-cutting challenges, which
were then prioritized by discussing in the light of three solution-oriented criteria
related to their importance at the EU level:
- Urgency: Is the challenge likely to provoke impacts that require urgent actions at EU
level?
- Tractability: Can solutions to the challenge be identified and implemented? Does
the EU have the institutional capacity to act upon this challenge?
- Impact: Are the actions to be taken by the EU expected to have a major global
positive impact?
By the end of the workshop, a workable agreement had been reached on the
definition of the following three overarching challenges:
(i) The need to change current ways in which essential natural resources are used.
(ii) The need to anticipate and adapt to societal changes.
(iii) The need for more effective and transparent governance for the EU and the world.

39. Facing the Future
Discussion – Horizon Scanning

40. Facing the Future
Conclusions – Horizon Scanning

42. Scanning methods
(FP7 SESTI Project, 2011)

43. Expert assessments on emerging
issues
(FP7 SESTI Project, 2011)

44. The 4th International Seville Conference on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
12 & 13 May 2011
Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS
scenario and roadmapping process
Cristiano Cagnin & Totti Könnölä
JRC-IPTS & Impetu Solutions

46. Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable development
IMS 2020 plan and process

47. IMS 2020 scenarios
Desirability and likelihood of each scenario feature to define the IMS vision 2020

48. IMS 2020 Vision
 Rapid and adaptive user-centred manufacturing which
leads to customised and 'eternal' life cycle solutions
 Highly flexible and self-organising value chains which
enable for different ways of organising production
systems, including related infrastructures, and reduces the
time between engaging with end users and delivering a
solution
 Sustainable manufacturing possible due to cultural change
of individuals and corporations supported by the
enforcement of rules and a proper regulatory framework
co-designed between governments, industries and
societies

49. IMS Final Roadmap Process
51

50. The 4th International Seville Conference on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
12 & 13 May 2011
Web 2.0 for foresight
Experiences on an Innovation Platform in European Agenda
Setting
1 Karel Haegeman, 1Cristiano Cagnin, 2Totti Könnölä, 3Georgi
Dimitrov and 4Doug Collins
European Commission (1JRC-IPTS, 3DG EAC), 2Impetu Solutions,
4Spigit inc.

51. Web 2.0 for Foresight
The case study: EIT-IPTS foresight platform
Context: What is a Knowledge and Innovation Community (KIC)?
 Main instrument of the EIT
 Highly integrated, creative and excellence-driven innovation partnership bringing together
education, research and business
 Objectives: increase competitiveness in Europe and tackle societal challenges
 Until now three KICs: Climate KIC, KIC ICTLabs, KIC InnoEnergy
 As part of the Strategic Innovation Agenda (SIA) the EIT will propose priority areas for future
KICs
Foresight case:
 Aim: assist EIT to collect, assess and analyse ideas for "world-leading innovation, integrating
education, business and research with a focus on specific thematic areas”
 Focus on research communities (university researchers, PRO´s and private research)
 Potential to serve as input for the SIA together with other inputs
 Web 2.0 foresight approach

52. Web 2.0 for Foresight
The case study: EIT-IPTS foresight platform
Project roadmap

53. Structure
1. Transformations
2. Towards New Foresight Systems
3. Towards New Methodologies
4. New Approaches in Practice
5.Conclusions

54. Conclusions

55. Opening Horizons
What kind of new approaches are available?
Thank you!
Dr. Totti Könnölä
CEO, Impetu Solutions
Associate Prof., Comillas Pontifical University
Adjunct Prof., IE Business School
Twitter: ImpetuSolutions
Website: www.impetusolutions.com
E-mail: totti.konnola@impetusolutions.com
|Madrid (Spain) | Espoo (Finland)|