An overview of key activities in a complete futures / foresight study, with a 'shopper's guide' to relevant tools and methods to suit each activity. Use it to compose an integrated futures research project, soup to nuts.
Speculative Design and Experiential Futures Stuart Candy
Speculative design and experiential futures are practices for influencing what is possible by materialising the imaginary.
This is an edited version of a presentation by design futurist Stuart Candy to the Stanford d.School class "Decay of Digital Things" (http://decay.io) at the invitation of Elizabeth Goodman (@egoodman) on May 1, 2014.
Future of Universities: an example of scenario building using the "Harman Fan"Wendy Schultz
NOTE: TO VIEW PROPERLY (the fan is interactive: triangles are hotlinked), DOWNLOAD AND VIEW IN 'PLAY' MODE. A slidedeck illustrating the Harman fan approach (divergence mapping) for creating scenarios; a product of the graduate seminar in futures research methods at the University of Houston's Masters program in Futures Studies.
Our Morgenbooster: Designing for Possible Futures.
Get a sneak-peak into how to apply futures thinking to your design processes to help create reactive and proactive brands, businesses, and products.
How can creative and concerned citizens tell more effective stories about the future? Make them different, deep, and diverse.
This talk by design futurist Stuart Candy from Carnegie Mellon University was given in April 2020 during the covid-19 pandemic to help launch the online collaborative storytelling experiment #FromTheFutures, hosted by Lance Weiler and the Digital Storytelling Lab at Columbia University.
Speculative Design and Experiential Futures Stuart Candy
Speculative design and experiential futures are practices for influencing what is possible by materialising the imaginary.
This is an edited version of a presentation by design futurist Stuart Candy to the Stanford d.School class "Decay of Digital Things" (http://decay.io) at the invitation of Elizabeth Goodman (@egoodman) on May 1, 2014.
Future of Universities: an example of scenario building using the "Harman Fan"Wendy Schultz
NOTE: TO VIEW PROPERLY (the fan is interactive: triangles are hotlinked), DOWNLOAD AND VIEW IN 'PLAY' MODE. A slidedeck illustrating the Harman fan approach (divergence mapping) for creating scenarios; a product of the graduate seminar in futures research methods at the University of Houston's Masters program in Futures Studies.
Our Morgenbooster: Designing for Possible Futures.
Get a sneak-peak into how to apply futures thinking to your design processes to help create reactive and proactive brands, businesses, and products.
How can creative and concerned citizens tell more effective stories about the future? Make them different, deep, and diverse.
This talk by design futurist Stuart Candy from Carnegie Mellon University was given in April 2020 during the covid-19 pandemic to help launch the online collaborative storytelling experiment #FromTheFutures, hosted by Lance Weiler and the Digital Storytelling Lab at Columbia University.
Morgenbooster 1508 - Think like a Futurist Act Like a Designer1508 A/S
Our Morgenbooster: Think Like a Futurist, Act Like a Designer
Get a sneak-peek into how to apply futures thinking to your design processes to help create reactive and proactive brands, businesses, and products.
Guerrilla futures is a practice at the intersection of strategic foresight and tactical media.
It's a direct answer to the challenge of bringing possible future scenarios to life in urban spaces.
This is an edited version of a presentation made by Stuart Candy (@futuryst) as part of a panel on Urban Tactics, for the second annual Festival of Transitional Architecture (@FESTA_CHCH) in Christchurch, New Zealand, on 26 October 2013. The panel was organised by Barnaby Bennett (@mrbarnabyb). http://festa.org.nz/
"Codesign Tools and Techniques” - Alessio Ricconois3
World Usability Day Rome 2015 - intervento di Alessio Ricco
~
Il codesign é una metodologia di progettazione che coinvolge direttamente gli stakeholder rendendoli parte attiva del processo di design per poter realizzare insieme un prodotto usabile e che sia aderente alle loro aspettative. Vedremo alcuni degli strumenti che il facilitatore puó utilizzare per migliorare il processo di collaborazione, di dialogo e ascolto all’interno del team di progettazione.
"It's Chaos Turtles All the Way Down" - presentation for the Global Foresight...Wendy Schultz
An exploration of the tensions of goal-based, visions-based, and emergence-based futures work, an update on the futures cone, and some new turbulence methods mash-ups.
Design Sprints for Awesome Teams: Running Design Sprints for Rapid Digital Pr...Dana Mitroff Silvers
Pre-conference workshop at the 2016 Museums and the Web Conference in Los Angeles, CA, on April 6, 2016.
Design Thinking is a set of methods and a mindset that combines empathy, creativity, and rationality to solve human-centered problems, and is the foundation upon which Design Sprints are built. We have run numerous Design Sprints with museums and cultural heritage organizations, and have refined its application to the unique constraints and opportunities of the museum sector.
Come join us for this fun and high-energy workshop in which we’ll walk you through a hands-on Design Sprint and give you tools and resources to bring sprints back to your own organization—and make your team more awesome!
How to re-frame business problems to customer-centric opportunity spaces that drive value. Design thinking is your shortcut to customer empathy. A good understanding on how this method could help you identify real customer problems and unmet needs is essential. Moreover we will share techniques and tools that you can implement directly after this crash course. Start inventing the future.
Service Design Drinks Warsaw #1 / Uncovering the job your service is hired forMartin Jordan
People are not interested in the service you are designing. They are interested in what it does for them – or which job it helps them to get done. They don’t really care about your banking, transportation or web service. But they do care about the outcome they are able to achieve with it. Today’s most successful services understand and address people’s key 'jobs', they support them in achieving their desired outcomes better than with other available solution.
The Jobs-to-be-Done (JTBD) perspective on service shifts the focus from service provision to enabling customers to accomplish a goal or resolve a problem. Customer jobs can not only have functional, but also social or personal aspects. For service managers, innovators and designers, a JTBD approach enriches existing tools and methods in research, design and marketing. These help them to understand customers better and eventually create significantly improved offerings.
This presentation was given on March 30, 2016 at first Service Design Drinks in Warsaw.
Platform Revolution - Ch 01 Intro: How Platforms are Changing CommerceMarshall Van Alstyne
Content: (1) Evidence platforms beat products in value, recognition, speed (2) Platform definition (3) Firm implications
These slides provide complimentary course materials for the Ch 1 of Platform Revolution - How Network Markets are Transforming the Economy and How to Make Them Work for You. Final slides provide reading supplements and links to other chapters for industry and academia.
A hands-on approach to applying foresight by Andy Hines, Principal at Hinesite and Lecturer/Executive-in-Residence in Futures Studies at University of Houston.
Metrics at Every (Flight) Level [2020 Agile Kanban Istanbul FlowConf]Matthew Philip
Slides as presented on Dec 8, 2020 at FlowConf organized by Agile Kanban Istanbul. https://www.flowconf.com/
Organizational change often stalls out at departmental boundaries, whether that is IT or another division. How do we help organizations connect vertically and horizontally to realize the outcomes that they have when undertaking large-scale change efforts?
Join this session to learn from a case study of a bank that combined flight levels and metrics to bridge their departmental boundaries and recognize gains not only in software delivery effectiveness but unifying higher-level strategy.
Understanding complexity - The Cynefin frameworkKeith De La Rue
A brief overview of the Cynefin framework, with discussion on complexity, and why it is important to understand how organisations work in order to implement change.
Frugal Innovation aka Jugaad is about lowering the cost & complexity of a product. They’re masters of the art of doing more with less. In this era, it is the only way we can sustain growth and prosperity because demand is increasing and resources are limited.
How to make better decisions today.
This section will help you understand the basics of future studies and how to use strategic foresight to survive and succeed in an era of accelerating, emerging change.
Morgenbooster 1508 - Think like a Futurist Act Like a Designer1508 A/S
Our Morgenbooster: Think Like a Futurist, Act Like a Designer
Get a sneak-peek into how to apply futures thinking to your design processes to help create reactive and proactive brands, businesses, and products.
Guerrilla futures is a practice at the intersection of strategic foresight and tactical media.
It's a direct answer to the challenge of bringing possible future scenarios to life in urban spaces.
This is an edited version of a presentation made by Stuart Candy (@futuryst) as part of a panel on Urban Tactics, for the second annual Festival of Transitional Architecture (@FESTA_CHCH) in Christchurch, New Zealand, on 26 October 2013. The panel was organised by Barnaby Bennett (@mrbarnabyb). http://festa.org.nz/
"Codesign Tools and Techniques” - Alessio Ricconois3
World Usability Day Rome 2015 - intervento di Alessio Ricco
~
Il codesign é una metodologia di progettazione che coinvolge direttamente gli stakeholder rendendoli parte attiva del processo di design per poter realizzare insieme un prodotto usabile e che sia aderente alle loro aspettative. Vedremo alcuni degli strumenti che il facilitatore puó utilizzare per migliorare il processo di collaborazione, di dialogo e ascolto all’interno del team di progettazione.
"It's Chaos Turtles All the Way Down" - presentation for the Global Foresight...Wendy Schultz
An exploration of the tensions of goal-based, visions-based, and emergence-based futures work, an update on the futures cone, and some new turbulence methods mash-ups.
Design Sprints for Awesome Teams: Running Design Sprints for Rapid Digital Pr...Dana Mitroff Silvers
Pre-conference workshop at the 2016 Museums and the Web Conference in Los Angeles, CA, on April 6, 2016.
Design Thinking is a set of methods and a mindset that combines empathy, creativity, and rationality to solve human-centered problems, and is the foundation upon which Design Sprints are built. We have run numerous Design Sprints with museums and cultural heritage organizations, and have refined its application to the unique constraints and opportunities of the museum sector.
Come join us for this fun and high-energy workshop in which we’ll walk you through a hands-on Design Sprint and give you tools and resources to bring sprints back to your own organization—and make your team more awesome!
How to re-frame business problems to customer-centric opportunity spaces that drive value. Design thinking is your shortcut to customer empathy. A good understanding on how this method could help you identify real customer problems and unmet needs is essential. Moreover we will share techniques and tools that you can implement directly after this crash course. Start inventing the future.
Service Design Drinks Warsaw #1 / Uncovering the job your service is hired forMartin Jordan
People are not interested in the service you are designing. They are interested in what it does for them – or which job it helps them to get done. They don’t really care about your banking, transportation or web service. But they do care about the outcome they are able to achieve with it. Today’s most successful services understand and address people’s key 'jobs', they support them in achieving their desired outcomes better than with other available solution.
The Jobs-to-be-Done (JTBD) perspective on service shifts the focus from service provision to enabling customers to accomplish a goal or resolve a problem. Customer jobs can not only have functional, but also social or personal aspects. For service managers, innovators and designers, a JTBD approach enriches existing tools and methods in research, design and marketing. These help them to understand customers better and eventually create significantly improved offerings.
This presentation was given on March 30, 2016 at first Service Design Drinks in Warsaw.
Platform Revolution - Ch 01 Intro: How Platforms are Changing CommerceMarshall Van Alstyne
Content: (1) Evidence platforms beat products in value, recognition, speed (2) Platform definition (3) Firm implications
These slides provide complimentary course materials for the Ch 1 of Platform Revolution - How Network Markets are Transforming the Economy and How to Make Them Work for You. Final slides provide reading supplements and links to other chapters for industry and academia.
A hands-on approach to applying foresight by Andy Hines, Principal at Hinesite and Lecturer/Executive-in-Residence in Futures Studies at University of Houston.
Metrics at Every (Flight) Level [2020 Agile Kanban Istanbul FlowConf]Matthew Philip
Slides as presented on Dec 8, 2020 at FlowConf organized by Agile Kanban Istanbul. https://www.flowconf.com/
Organizational change often stalls out at departmental boundaries, whether that is IT or another division. How do we help organizations connect vertically and horizontally to realize the outcomes that they have when undertaking large-scale change efforts?
Join this session to learn from a case study of a bank that combined flight levels and metrics to bridge their departmental boundaries and recognize gains not only in software delivery effectiveness but unifying higher-level strategy.
Understanding complexity - The Cynefin frameworkKeith De La Rue
A brief overview of the Cynefin framework, with discussion on complexity, and why it is important to understand how organisations work in order to implement change.
Frugal Innovation aka Jugaad is about lowering the cost & complexity of a product. They’re masters of the art of doing more with less. In this era, it is the only way we can sustain growth and prosperity because demand is increasing and resources are limited.
How to make better decisions today.
This section will help you understand the basics of future studies and how to use strategic foresight to survive and succeed in an era of accelerating, emerging change.
We've been researching and developing a standardised, evidence based approach to the spread and adoption of innovations in our region. We call this our 'spread and adoption model' – the model is constantly evolving, with a key output being a 'spread and adoption plan'. This presentation complements the webinars held in early March 2019 to introduce the first three components of our model and the spread and adoption planning template to colleagues from other AHSNs.
David Fleming held a seminar on monitoring and evaluation in conflict-affected environments at the Post-war Reconstruction and Development Unit (PRDU), University of York.
Shaping Tomorrow is the world’s first, multi-award winning, and only AI-driven, systems thinking model that delivers strategic foresight and anticipatory thinking in real-time.
Equip yourself with AI-driven research, instant forward intelligence, auto scenarios & collaborative strategic thinking to plan your future & act in time.
The system helps you to define, gather, analyze, prioritize and distribute forward intelligence about products, customers, competitors, policies, strategies and your environment to support you in 'making better decisions today'.
Innovation and Opportunity IdentificationPeachy Essay
However, circumstances can be turned into opportunities but with conditions. There are many ways to prepare for circumstances that will wilt opportunities depending on the field of interest. Of course, innovation is key but one has to also continually seek and utilize opportunities.
However, identifying an opportunity especially in business relies heavily on four areas. These areas have been associated with many business opportunities across the world and many people continue to acquire more from them
IDS 401 Milestone Four Guidelines and Rubric
Analyzing an Issue or Event in Globalization through the Lenses
of the Natural and Applied Sciences and the Social Sciences
Overview
For the first part of your final project, the critical analysis portfolio, you will select a specific issue or event in globalization and critically analyze it through the
four general education lenses: history, humanities, social sciences, and natural and applied sciences. By viewing the issue or event through these lenses, you will
gain insight into how the interconnected nature of globalization affects society as well as both your own individual framework of perception and the choices,
attitudes, and behaviors of others in the world around you.
For this fourth milestone, due in Module Six, you will analyze your issue or event in globalization through the lenses of the natural and applied sciences and the
social sciences. Like Milestone Two, this task provides you with an opportunity to dive deeper into your analysis of the issuer or event through these two lenses.
Prompt
First, review your work in Modules Five and Six as well as the Four Lenses document from Module One.
Next, analyze your popular-culture artifact through the natural and applied sciences by exploring the following questions:
How does this issue or event provide a social commentary through the natural and applied sciences?
In what ways can science help resolve or enhance your issue or event?
Next, analyze your popular-culture artifact through the lens of the social sciences, and address the following:
How does this issue or event interact with the social sciences lens and impact social issues?
In what ways does the Social Science lens help articulate a deeper understanding of the social issue(s) that inform your issue or event?
This milestone provides you with a chance to practice analyzing your issue or event through these lenses and receive feedback on this practice attempt.
Note: You are completing two separate analyses: one from the natural and applied sciences and one from the social sciences. You must submit two papers in a
single Word document.
1
Be sure to use evidence from research to support your analysis. Refer to course resources, the LibGuide for this course, as well as any other pertinent resources
to support your responses. Relevant current news sources may be used with instructor approval. Incorporate instructor feedback into your final project.
The following critical elements must be addressed:
I. Lens Analysis: In this section of your assignment, you will analyze your issue or event through two of the four general education lenses.
A. Analyze your issue or event through the lens of the natural and applied sciences for determining its impact on various institutions. Utilize
evidence from research to support your analysis.
B. Analyze your issue or event through the ...
Overview of Evaluation Methods and Choices.pptxChrisHayes76322
This presentation looks at considerations and choices for designing and planning your evaluation activity.
It looks at common methods for data collection.
It touches on data analysis and write-up
Shaping Tomorrow is the world’s first, multi-award winning, and only AI-driven, systems thinking model that delivers strategic foresight and anticipatory thinking in real-time.
Conclusions – the future of ideologiesJudging ideol.docxmccormicknadine86
Conclusions – the future of ideologies?
Judging ideologies
What is the “best” ideology? Why?
Categories
Change: Reform/Revolution
Authority: Place of Individual/State
Free Will/Volunteerism versus Determinism
Human Nature
Good and/or Evil Competition and/or Cooperation
Equality and Greatest Freedom
Basis of Society (political, gender, religion, economic)
The “beast”/reaction against
Future of ideologies?
Ideologies – social transformation and political development = ongoing cycle?
“End of Ideology” – Endism?
What drives the formation of ideologies?
Democracy – the best?
“Democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time” Winston Churchill
Future of ideologies? (continued)
Newly Emerging Ideologies
Globalism (globalization = process)
Connectivity/Interconnectedness
Global trends
Identity
Signs
Critiques
Future of ideologies? (continued)
Newly (re) Emerging Ideologies
Localism
Limited Connectivity / Local Identity
Populism
Heywood, p. 291 “”the belief that the instincts and wishes of the people provide the principle legitimate guide to political action”
Authority with “the people” / assumptions about elite
Future of ideologies? (continued)
Trumpism?
Trends
Immigration
Working Class
Divides – rural/urban, conservative/liberal
Increasing polarization
CA3
Naomi Kendal
77
Decide
● What industry/business are you in?
● eg HR, Marketing, Sales, Retail, Software development
● As we move through each topic, you must apply it to your business.
● Research – eg how does my company collect/ store/ analyse Big
Data…
● How does my company use AI, what are the benefits…
● Find case studies from your specific industry and research to back
it up.
● Visualisations to illustrate the meanings – of 3 topics.
● Trends & Recommendations
CA3 Assessment Brief
Module Title: Data & Digital Marketing Analytics
Module Code: B9DM105
Module Leader: MSc in Digital Marketing
Stage (if relevant): 9
Assessment Title: Data: Full report and analysis.
Assessment Number (if relevant): CA 3 of 3
Assessment Type: Project Report
Individual/Group: Individual
Assessment Weighting: 40%
Issue Date: 21/6/19
Hand In Date: 07/8/19
Mode of Submission: Moodle
Details of Assignment brief
You are working in the Big Data Dept. of the ‘Red Cloud’ company – a large
multinational, reporting to the newly appointed CEO.
As she is new to the role, she would like a report (3000 words) explaining the
Information Management strategy of the company.
You should include the following topics in this report:
Data Analytics, Data Collection & Storage and the methods and technologies used in
analysing the Data.
Data Abstraction Layers, Data Warehousing and Data Mining.
The role and benefits of your Big Data Dept prior to a restructure.
She also wants a Data Visualisation to illustrate a relevant Data Set for 3 of the
below headings.
1. Data analytics – ...
Developing Audience Insight: Arts and Entertainment Experience (Un)marketingKelly Page
In this presentation I introduce the methods for developing research insight about how people experience arts and entertainment events, and cultural experiences. How do we collect the data and information to inform our communications and marketing activities. The main two approaches discussed include qualitative (observation, interviews and focus groups) and quantitative (surveys or questionnaires. digital tracking) data collection methods.
Deriving value from analytics requires much more than purchasing technology. University of Kentucky's analytics journey utilized fostering a bottom-up emergent community of practice as well as top-down organizational maneuvers. This presentation shares different aspects of the University of Kentucky score.
This presentation explores the intersection between UX strategy and research:
Part 1: Why do research, anyway?
Part 2: Understand the landscape
Part 3: Pushback & pitfalls
Part 4: Exploring the toolbox
Part 5: Case Study: ATB
Originally presented at VanUE on April 29, 2014.
WHO Foresight Approaches in Public Health.pdfWendy Schultz
Suggestions for expanding futures research and foresight capabilities in an organization, with an emphasis on broad participation by stakeholders; includes examples of multiple futures methods and linked processes.
Further exploration of the intersection of our models of time (eg, the futures cone) with chaos theory, complexity theory, images of the future and archetypes, and postnormal times theory.
Crazy Futures I an exploration on the necessity of pushing your thinking pas...Wendy Schultz
Don't merely consider what you think is plausible - recognise that you may not have the whole story on emerging changes, and that what's emerging may shatter the bounds of what's currently 'plausible'. Get creative, test assumptions, test values and worldviews.
A brief history and description of visioning tools.Wendy Schultz
This starts with the little building a vision mosaic interactive exercise, and ends with the shared joys problem-to-vision exercise. What the slidedeck doesn't note is that we posted the vision detail cards from the first exercise, and clustered them thematically to let a more coherent structure for the vision emerge.
A fun think piece on possible futures for AI and its potential range of relationships with humanity - written in response to a request by editors at Critical Muslim to provide an AI-focussed version of their regular feature, "The List." Thanks to Zia Sardar.
Museum mash-up, or vectors of visioningWendy Schultz
Describes a participatory engagement during the Design Develop Transform event in Antwerp, that combined multiple interactive futures methods: Manoa scenario building, the Verge General Practice Framework for Futures, the Postcards exercise, and Lego Serious Play. Participants explored possible long-range futures for museums and art.
Melding machine learning and participatory foresightWendy Schultz
Describes a participatory process to help experts teach an algorithm to forecast possible futures for jobs and skills in the USA and the UK. Began with scanning data and asked participants to locate those emerging changes onto a map of a generic city and discuss the various impacts. This was followed by scoring how those changes would affect increase or decrease of certain jobs and skills in future labour markets; the scores were input into the algorithm to teach it. The process was iterative.
Tick TOCS Tick TOCS - channeling change through theory into scenariosWendy Schultz
Describes an original scenario-building method used to explore futures for education, based on combining scanning output with specific social change theories. The social change theories provided logical narrative arcs to evolve different futures from starting points in the present.
Crazy Futures: Why Plausibility is MaladaptiveWendy Schultz
Explores how images of the future are perceived and categorized, and how the discipline itself uses 'plausibility' as an evaluative criterion - and why that may be a mistake.
ORI BAM Warwick Scenarios 2018 Crowdsourcing Harman's FanWendy Schultz
Describing a distributed, asynchronous method for identifying multiple narrative paths to alternative futures, using the Futurescaper software platform as a way to generate Harman's Fan scenario explorations.
A provocation for the Association of Professional Futurists' Virtual Gathering, 15 September 2017 exploring what is populism in an age when extraordinary is ordinary.
"Blowing the Cobwebs Off Your Mind" BootcampWendy Schultz
A futures research and foresight methods workshop by SAMI Consulting, Laurie Young, and Infinite Futures - focus on patterns of change over time, using past timelines, Three Horizons, and the Gartner Hype Cycle, and age cohort analysis; CLA; Verge; and Futures Wheels.
CLA is a post-structural futures method developed by Sohail Inayatullah. This slidedeck presents a brief intro with examples for use in facilitation and discussion.
Collecting stories about future uses of blockchain technologyWendy Schultz
This slidedeck briefly introduces blockchain technology and then requests readers to share a scenario - a story of a possible future - of possible uses for blockchain tech in the future. The stories can be shared on Sensemaker, and the slidedeck gives a step-by-step demo of how that would work. The deck then lists possible future users as prompts for your imaginative exploration of how blockchain technology might affect people in all walks of life and sectors.
The Team Member and Guest Experience - Lead and Take Care of your restaurant team. They are the people closest to and delivering Hospitality to your paying Guests!
Make the call, and we can assist you.
408-784-7371
Foodservice Consulting + Design
Artificial intelligence (AI) offers new opportunities to radically reinvent the way we do business. This study explores how CEOs and top decision makers around the world are responding to the transformative potential of AI.
Oprah Winfrey: A Leader in Media, Philanthropy, and Empowerment | CIO Women M...CIOWomenMagazine
This person is none other than Oprah Winfrey, a highly influential figure whose impact extends beyond television. This article will delve into the remarkable life and lasting legacy of Oprah. Her story serves as a reminder of the importance of perseverance, compassion, and firm determination.
Modern Database Management 12th Global Edition by Hoffer solution manual.docxssuserf63bd7
https://qidiantiku.com/solution-manual-for-modern-database-management-12th-global-edition-by-hoffer.shtml
name:Solution manual for Modern Database Management 12th Global Edition by Hoffer
Edition:12th Global Edition
author:by Hoffer
ISBN:ISBN 10: 0133544613 / ISBN 13: 9780133544619
type:solution manual
format:word/zip
All chapter include
Focusing on what leading database practitioners say are the most important aspects to database development, Modern Database Management presents sound pedagogy, and topics that are critical for the practical success of database professionals. The 12th Edition further facilitates learning with illustrations that clarify important concepts and new media resources that make some of the more challenging material more engaging. Also included are general updates and expanded material in the areas undergoing rapid change due to improved managerial practices, database design tools and methodologies, and database technology.
Modern Database Management 12th Global Edition by Hoffer solution manual.docx
Methods inventory jigsaw presentation
1. Methods Overview| 9 September 2015
This slidedeck provides an
overarching framework for designing
integrated, systemic futures research
and foresight processes.
It begins with an overview of five key
activities of futures research, and
reviews an illustrative list of methods
suitable for each activity.
The resulting ‘jigsaw inventory’ of
core futures research and foresight
methods creates a design menu.
2. A tour of key futures research and foresight methods
Five key activities, and a palette of tools
Methods Overview| 9 September 2015
3. Methods Overview| 9 September 2015
What’s the focus?
A surprise?A worry?
A goal?
Awareness
of Change
Impacts
of Change
Alternative
Futures
Preferred
Futures
Strategy
and
Change
Management
Infinite Futures
4. What’s the focus?
A surprise?A worry?
A goal?
Awareness
of Change
Impacts
of Change
Alternative
Futures
Preferred
Futures
Strategy
and
Change
Management
Infinite Futures
5. What’s the focus?
A surprise?A worry?
A goal?
Awareness
of Change
Impacts
of Change
Alternative
Futures
Preferred
Futures
Strategy
and
Change
Management
Infinite Futures
6. What’s the focus?
A surprise?A worry?
A goal?
Awareness
of Change
Impacts
of Change
Alternative
Futures
Preferred
Futures
Strategy
and
Change
Management
Infinite Futures
7. What’s the focus?
A surprise?A worry?
A goal?
Awareness
of Change
Impacts
of Change
Alternative
Futures
Preferred
Futures
Strategy
and
Change
Management
Infinite Futures
8. What’s the focus?
A surprise?A worry?
A goal?
Awareness
of Change
Impacts
of Change
Alternative
Futures
Preferred
Futures
Strategy
and
Change
Management
Infinite Futures
9. Awareness
of Change
The first step in foresight is noticing change. The
various methods available address different types
of change, at different stages of maturity:
• Horizon Scanning – comprehensive change
identification strategy – how change itself
changes
• Datamining – best for extensively observed,
measurable trends
• Trendspotting – used for qualitative mapping of
social and cultural trends
• Emerging issues analysis – identifying change as
it first creates social impacts
• Wild cards ID – spotting potential for emerging
change or low-probability, high-impact change
Infinite Futures
10. Awareness
of Change
HORIZON SCANNING
What it is: comprehensive change identification – how
change itself changes (aka environmental scanning).
What it needs: data sources across multiple fields of
study and points of view.
Mode: quantitative and qualitative – includes both
statistical trend patterns and case studies; 360 degree
view (STEEP/PESTLEC/EPISTLE).
Strengths: comprehensive overview of landscape of
change; early warning indicators.
Weaknesses: change data problematic; cost in time.
Cost: high in staff time – currently requires
considerable human curation / filtering, although some
‘auto-scanning’ experiments in natural language
processing for text mining show promise.
Infinite Futures
11. Awareness
of Change
DATAMINING
What it is: an analytic process designed to
explore data in search of consistent patterns and/
or systematic relationships between variables.
What it needs: access to large databases;
statistical/analytic software.
Mode: usually quantitative; natural language
processing will increasingly allow text mining.
Strengths: numerical / statistical data easy to
store, organise, access, visually display; perceived
as highly authoritative.
Weaknesses: can lack nuance; hidden assumptions
Cost: data access; software; advanced statistical
expertise in staff.
Infinite Futures
12. Awareness
of Change
TRENDSPOTTING
What it is: monitoring and identifying shifts in social,
cultural, and political attitudes and behaviour by
various segments of the population.
What it needs: ethnographic, social, and historical
frameworks; team of observers (increasingly
crowdsourced, eg, Springspotters).
Mode: usually qualitative; often participant
observation.
Strengths: captures cultural / social nuance, good for
spotting outliers.
Weaknesses: too much reliance on case studies and
single observations.
Cost: time-consuming; anthropological or ethnographic
expertise often required; increasingly crowdsourced.
Infinite Futures
13. How to Scan Outside the Box…
1. Diversify: Expertise limits -- go outside your industry or field.
2. Go Global: escape the familiar -- tap another worldview with
sources from other countries.
3. History is the Future: look at the past to find the future -- cycles,
ideas that finally matured.
4. The Year 2020: search on your issue plus 2020 and see what Google
finds.
5. Follow the Futurists: get newsletters from various futures groups to
hear their buzz.
6. Join the Dialogue: Look for communities / blogs on your issue(s) and
join the discussion / catch the commentary.
7. Go Ahead, Contact Them: email or call a leading thinker or
advocate you’ve identified.
Courtesy Future Think LLC, from a presentation by Lisa Bodell.
Infinite Futures
14. 6. Be a Customer: Use a product or service from your client’s industry --
get the end-user experience.
9. Advisory Boards: ask an eclectic group for review / input in your scan.
10. Search the Patent Office: what’s in the pipeline for development?
11. Take a Different Route: break your own path habits walking to work.
12. Keep an Idea Journal: discipline yourself to capture your own ideas.
13. Get the Newsletter: sign up for the newsletters of organisations related
to your scanning issues.
14. Look at Unrelated Industries: look at everything tangentially linked to
your issue, and scan industries in those areas too.
15. Activate your Toolbar: put your favourite sources and blogs in your
browser’s toolbar and take a quick scan break.
…15 Tips from Future Think
Infinite Futures
Courtesy Future Think LLC, from a presentation by Lisa Bodell.
15. Awareness
of Change
EMERGING ISSUES ANALYSIS
What it is: identifying initial sources of change,
usually by monitoring outliers.
What it needs: access to multiple sources / feeds
from outlier / fringe communities.
Mode: usually qualitative; based on spotting first
cases.
Strengths: advanced warning of impending
change; opportunities to manage and take
advantage of emerging change.
Weaknesses: outliers as sources often seen as
lacking credibility; not all changes emerge.
Cost: very time consuming – spotting first cases
means sifting through masses of observations.
Infinite Futures
16. Life-cycle of Change
Life Cycle of Change
Schultz, adapted from Molitor
Developmentofanissue
Time
3rd horizon
scientists; artists; radicals; mystics
specialists’ journals and websites
laypersons’ magazines; websites;
documentaries
newspapers; news magazines;
broadcast media
institutions and government
local; few cases;
emerging issues
global; multiple dispersed cases;
trends and drivers
system limits; problems
develop; unintended impacts
Infinite Futures
18. Awareness
of Change
WILD CARDS
What it is: exploration of possible high impact /
low probability events (‘black swans’).
What it needs: explicit comprehensive review of
assumptions; application of logic and imagination.
Mode: usually qualitative.
Strengths: wild card / black swan explorations
help reduce conceptual / perceptual blindspots.
Weaknesses: exploratory; based on critique and
Socratic dialogue, not evidence-based.
Cost: staff time allotted for assumption-mapping,
assumptions reversal, connections to emerging
issues data.
Infinite Futures
19. Wild Cards: Assumption Reversal
Assumptions?
You go to eat
Building / site
Staff: chef makes food
Staff: servers bring food
Wholesale suppliers
Customers pay
You go to socialize
Eg, restaurants….
Opposites?
?
Mobile, nomadic: hot air
balloon, treehouse
Food printer,
collaborative co-cooking
Robots, dispenser
Customers bring own raw
ingredients
Barter, in-kind
?
Data/emerging?
Pop-up shops; tree-house
restaurant (Aus)
MIT; Cornell; …
Japan
Forage (LA)
Infinite Futures
20. Impacts
of Change
The second step is critiquing the impacts of
change. What will change affect first? Who
will it affect disproportionately?
• Futures Wheels – map cascades of
change
• Verge – explores impacts of change on
people and social systems
• Cross-impact Analysis – catalogues
effects of change on each other
• Influence Mapping – shows how multiple
changes connect and interact
• Three Horizons – shows how different
mindsets approach change
• Gartner Hype Cycle – maps difference
between enthusiasm and actuality
Infinite Futures
21. FUTURES WHEELS
What it is: explores and maps successive
cascades of impacts created by a single
significant change; helps extrapolate
surprises, disruptions, and backlashes as well
as emerging opportunities.
What it needs: basic change data,
conceptual structure, diverse contributors.
Mode: usually qualitative and participatory.
Strengths: can help identify unexpected
impacts, ‘black swan’ events, and areas of
potential backlash or constraint.
Weaknesses: not seen as authoritative; can
lack rigour.
Cost: researcher/participant time.
Impacts
of Change
Infinite Futures
Futures Wheels developed by Dr Jerome Glenn of the UNU Millennium Project
23. VERGE
What it is: a conceptual framework that
systematically assesses the effects of change
by their points of impact on people.
What it needs: understanding of the
concepts, diverse points of view.
Mode: usually qualitative; participatory.
Strengths: can add structure to various
foresight techniques, makes impacts on
people, values, paradigms, systems explicit.
Weaknesses: somewhat complicated to
explain initially.
Cost: researcher/participant time.
Impacts
of Change
Infinite Futures
Verge was developed by Dr. Richard Lum of Vision Foresight Strategy
24. Verge – exploration of change focused on people
The processes and
technology through
which we create
goods and services
The ways in which we
acquire and use the
goods and services we
create
Social structures and
relationships which link
people and organizations
The concepts, ideas
and paradigms we use
to define the world
around us
The technologies
used to connect
people, places and
things
The ways in which we
destroy value and the
reasons for doing so
Infinite Futures
Verge was developed by Dr. Richard Lum of Vision Foresight Strategy
25. CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS
What it is: qualitative exploration of
emerging changes’ intersecting impacts by
systematically comparing individual potential
impacts against each other.
What it needs: careful focus in choosing
relevant issues / changes; software.
Mode: can be quantitative or qualitative.
Strengths: quantitative versions can be
modelled; qualitative versions can add detail
to exploring change interactions.
Weaknesses: based on intuition.
Cost: researcher/participant time; software.
Impacts
of Change
Infinite Futures
27. INFLUENCE MAPPING
What it is: identifying relevant variables,
drawing influence connections, and spotting
feedback loops that might accelerate or
constrain change.
What it needs: knowledgeable facilitator /
systems mapper; diverse contributors.
Mode: logical / intuitive – some results can
be modelled dynamically.
Strengths: explicitly identifying relevant
parts of the system, and in identifying
accelerators, brakes and backlash.
Weaknesses: difficult to do well; can
generate ‘spaghetti’ of detail.
Cost: knowledgeable staff/facilitator; time.
Impacts
of Change
Infinite Futures
29. THREE HORIZONS
What it is: 3H maps overlapping waves of
change visible in the present as mindsets:
managerial, visionary, and entrepreneurial.
What it needs: knowledgeable facilitator;
diversity of contributors; scan data.
Mode: mixes logical, intuitive (pattern
identification), and creative thinking.
Strengths: helps staff spot vulnerabilities in
current assumptions, opportunities for
strategic action.
Weaknesses: qualitative approach; people
mistake it for a simple timeline.
Cost: knowledgeable facilitator; participant
time; cost of scan data.
Impacts
of Change
Infinite Futures
Developed by Bill Sharpe of International Futures Forum
31. GARTNER HYPE CYCLE
What it is: analytic framework that
separates expert and popular enthusiasm for
an innovation from its actual level of
deployment and market penetration.
What it needs: specific data on illustrative
cases making up an emerging issue or trend.
Mode: observational/historical; qualitative.
Strengths: excellent for hindsight analysis;
past studies provide cautionary pattern for
emerging change.
Weaknesses: identifying time frame and
current position of a live trend difficult.
Cost: data, staff time for analysis.
Impacts
of Change
Infinite Futures
33. Alternative
Futures
The third step is imagining possible
outcomes of change. What futures might
the combined effects of change generate?
Futures thought experiments.
• 2X2 Scenario Building – focuses on
managing uncertainty for decisions
• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) – focusses
on diversity of points of view.
• Morphological Analysis – focuses on
managing multiple interacting variables.
• Inductive Scenario Building – focuses on
layering change impacts into narratives.
• Scenario Archetypes – quickly explore
boundaries of thinking about change
• Manoa Scenario Building – focusses on
understanding turbulent surprises.
Infinite Futures
34. 2X2 SCENARIO BUILDING
What it is: chooses two highly important but
highly uncertain drivers of change, and
creates a 2X2 matrix by expressing each
driver as a continuum between two opposite
uncertain outcomes.
What it needs: clearly stated decision focus
and drivers inventory.
Mode: usually qualitative and participatory.
Strengths: very focussed on outcomes; best
for 10-20 year scenarios; highly structured.
Weaknesses: often fails to question
assumptions or current paradigms that may
be overturned by turbulence.
Cost: data; facilitator; participant time.
Alternative
Futures
Infinite Futures
35. The “Scenario Cross” Method
2X2 scenario table
Generated by ‘axes of
uncertainty’
Chosen from most important,
most uncertain drivers
Deductive
Infinite Futures
36. CAUSAL LAYERED ANALYSIS (CLA)
What it is: a four-level analysis exploring the
litany, systems, worldviews, and myths /
metaphors associated with an issue.
What it needs: experienced facilitator and
cultural and professionally diverse
contributors.
Mode: qualitative and participatory,
although desk analysis is possible.
Strengths: gets beneath surface buzz and
expert analysis to cultural structures
defining and driving them.
Weaknesses: difficult to do well without
multiple cultural perspectives present.
Cost: facilitator, and participant time.
Alternative
Futures
Infinite Futures
Developed by Dr. Sohail Inayatullah of Metafutures
37. Sources: Sohail Inayatullah; Dennis List; Andy Hines.
Problem
Causes
Worldview
Metaphors & Myths
TIME SCALE
OF CHANGE
Continuous
Years
Decades
Societal /
Civilizational
The “Litany”:
official public description
of issue & the public buzz
Scientific & Systemic Analysis:
short-term historical facts &
technical explanations
Discourse Analysis:
paradigms, mental models,
culture, & values
Image Analysis:
myths, archetypes, visual
images, emotional responses,
& metaphors
Causal Layered
Analysis (CLA)
Infinite Futures
38. MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS
What it is: combines permutations of
different outcomes across a range of
variables; logically inconsistent combinations
are disallowed.
What it needs: highly structured dataset and
support software.
Mode: mixes quantitative and qualitative
forecasts.
Strengths: highly structured, rigourous
approach perceived as credible; includes
multiple variables and combinations.
Weaknesses: highly combinatorial approach
requires software support.
Cost: dataset; software; experienced staff.
Alternative
Futures
Infinite Futures
40. INDUCTIVE SCENARIO BUILDING
What it is: building scenarios from the
ground up, compiling changes, impacts, and
patterns of details into systemically coherent
narratives .
What it needs: scan data and impact
assessments; organising conceptual
frameworks.
Mode: usually qualitative; participatory.
Strengths: closer to how change actually
emerges (multiple, overlapping, systemic);
nuanced; detailed; change theory-based.
Weaknesses: intuitive ‘soft’ approach; needs
strong theoretical underpinning.
Cost: data, staff time.
Alternative
Futures
Infinite Futures
42. SCENARIO ARCHETYPES
What it is: ‘incasting’ an issue into a set of
stories common in people’s thinking about
the future, eg, continued growth, collapse,
transformation, and discipline.
What it needs: a library of pre-prepared
scenarios.
Mode: usually qualitative and participatory.
Strengths: rapid turn-around; using classic
scenario archetypes, captures possible future
diversity easily.
Weaknesses: lack of ownership of scenarios.
Cost: preparation time to tailor archetypes;
facilitator and participant time.
Alternative
Futures
Infinite Futures
44. MANOA SCENARIO BUILDING
What it is: multiple emerging issues
generate potential impacts and cross-
impacts; these are woven into a narrative
depicting a possible surprising,
transformative, or disruptive future.
Alternative
Futures
What it needs: 3-5 changes for each scenario generated; knowledge of futures wheels,
influence mapping, and cross-impact analysis.
Mode: merges logical/intuitive/creative; participatory.
Strengths: helps map surprising outcomes and ‘black swan’ events; generates nuanced
detail; critiques assumptions.
Weaknesses: takes more time to generate four scenarios; rigour dependent upon
structures included by facilitator or researcher.
Cost: scanning data; research and participant time.
Infinite Futures
Developed by Dr. Wendy Schultz for the Hawai‘i Research Center for Futures Studies
46. Preferred
Futures
The fourth step figures prominently in
leadership literature: working to identify,
analyse, and articulate images of preferred
futures, or ‘visions’ – goal setting; BHAGS
Appreciative Inquiry – articulates an
organisation’s preferred future based on its
past successes and current strengths.
Future Search – brings together
organisational staff and stakeholders to
suggest transformational preferred futures
based on history and emerging change.
Also, Future Workshops, Community
Visioning, Integrated Visioning
Infinite Futures
47. Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline
Organisational Capacity for Vision Creation
telling
selling
testing
consulting
CO-CREATING
required
capacity for
direction-
setting and
learning
degree of active staff involvement
LOW
HIGH
HIGH
Infinite Futures
48. Strategic Design Trade-offs:
Visioning as an Example
Degree of difference from present
Time horizon
LevelofParticipantRisk
Future
SearchNanus
Appreciative
Inquiry
Boulding-
Ziegler
Futures
Workshops
Manoa
Infinite Futures
49. Preferred
Futures
APPRECIATIVE INQUIRY
What it is: change management approach that
focuses on identifying what is working well,
analysing why it is working well and then doing
more of it.
What it needs: experienced facilitation and an
atmosphere of candid assessment and exploration.
Mode: facilitated, participatory dialogue.
Strengths: celebratory approach to goal
articulation strengthens team.
Weaknesses: no links to trends of change or
emerging issues.
Cost: trained facilitator, staff time.
Infinite Futures
Developed by David L. Cooperrider
50. Preferred
Futures
FUTURE SEARCH
What it is: a 3-day organisational planning
meeting that focussing on stakeholders’ past
experiences together and their future
transformative goals.
What it needs: trained facilitator, historical data,
scan data, space and teim.
Mode: facilitated and participatory.
Strengths: unites a community of action around a
common understanding of shared history, current
context and change, and resources for the future.
Weaknesses: stakeholders must have historical
relationship; difficult to get time commitment.
Cost: knowledgeable facilitator; staff time.
Infinite Futures
Developed by Marvin Weisbord and Sandra Janoff
51. Strategy
and
Change
Management
The final step in foresight is creating change. The
various methods available address different types
of change, at different stages of maturity:
• Backcasting – working backwards from a
specified future to determine actions and
resources necessary to create it.
• Early Warning Indicators – identifying and
monitoring for emergence of relevant change.
• Roadmapping – inventorying the
interconnections between resources and
people necessary to create an outcome.
• Windtunnelling – using alternative futures as a
robustness check for proposed strategies,
programmes, or products.
Infinite Futures
52. Strategy
and
Change
Management
BACKCASTING
What it is: logical mapping of necessary steps to
create a specified outcome, working backwards from
the future outcome to present conditions.
What it needs: good understanding of the systems,
resources, and processes involved..
Mode: usually qualitative; often participatory.
Strengths: fosters a logical perspective that prevents
‘it’s never been done’ thinking.
Weaknesses: difficult to create logical sequences
backwards.
Cost: time for sufficiently knowledgeable staff with
diverse expertise.
Infinite Futures
53. Learning and performance enhancements
of all kinds in high demand
The economy and the realities of
“employment” continue to change
Ubiquitous mobile computing makes
assistive intelligent agent software
commonplace
Digital and automated “instruction”
will exceed live human instructors
Perceived performance and economic gaps will
further drive automation and tailoring of learning
Our understanding of human behavior and cognition
will continue to improve
Employers will be seeking
new skills and worker
profiles
Schools will wholesale dismantle
birth-year-based organization
Human enhancements will driver
performance escalation
A new generation of leaders will support
broader transformations in education
The physical classroom is supplanted for most
by persistent, digital gaming/learning
augmented reality layers
Personal learning experiences are
continuously captured, inventoried,
and shared with others
Access to information (internet)
becomes a common civil right
NEAR MID LONG
Digital and autonomous anticipatory
learning systems are common
components in all digital
technologies
Learning
Proliferating Digital and Online Tools for Learning
Big Data
Evolving Human Enhancement Ubiquitous lifelong learning
Evolving World with Mobile Digital Gaming
Advances in Neuroscience Paving the Way for
Brain-Inspired Technologies
Trends in Cognitive Systems:
Redefining Consciousness
B2M interfaces are common
in high risk industrial settings
Digital Equality
Future of Jobs and New Welfare
Models
Super-centenarian Societies
Cheap online educational alternatives
enroll more learners in F2F courses
Society will formally recognize
new credentials and standards
The spreading “internet of
things” continuously “teaches”
people about their surroundings
Learning Backcast from EU Futurium
Infinite Futures
54. Strategy
and
Change
Management
EARLY WARNING INDICATORS
What it is: identifying precursor changes that could
trigger or evolve into a significant strategic change
or scenario, in order to monitor their emergence as a
trigger for action or resource allocation.
What it needs: ongoing horizon scanning / change
monitoring capacity.
Mode: quantitative datamining and qualitative
trendspotting.
Strengths: gives decision-makers time to create
responses to opportunities and vulnerabilities by
triggering an alert based on incoming scan data.
Weaknesses: not easy to determine what an ‘early
warning signal’ would be for a specific issue.
Cost: part of ongoing scanning.
Infinite Futures
55. Strategy
and
Change
Management
ROADMAPPING
What it is: systematic identification of the dynamic
set of technical, policy, legal, financial, market and
organisational requirements for the development of
a technology or innovation.
What it needs: knowledge of the resources, systems,
and stakeholders involved or potentially required.
Mode: analytical.
Strengths: useful structure for rigorous inventory of
required systems, resources, and actions.
Weaknesses: can become formulaic, may miss
constraints, backlashes, social/cultural/political
responses to steps along the map.
Cost: staff time.
Infinite Futures
57. Strategy
and
Change
Management
WINDTUNNELLING
What it is: evaluating strategies against conditions
across alternative future scenarios, rating them for
potential effectiveness and robustness under
different conditions.
What it needs: a ‘library’ of relevant images of
alternative futures.
Mode: usually qualitative; often facilitated dialogue.
Strengths: applies a consistent, and systematic
assessment of actions against possible future
conditions – helps refine strategies for resilience.
Weaknesses: relies on well-researched scenarios.
Cost: scenario library; facilitator and participant
time.
Infinite Futures
58. Wind Tunnelling – Analytic Approach
Orange
SCENARIO
Blue
SCENARIO
Green
SCENARIO
Yellow
SCENARIO
Policy
Option
1
Policy
Option
2
Policy
Option
3
Implications
q Success
q Failure
q Contingent on
scenario
Action Plans
q Do Now
q Reject
q Monitor future
events &
Contingency
Planning
Martin Duckworth, SAMI Consulting, 2011
Infinite Futures
59. Choosing the methods that will work best for you
Augmenting and amplifying your current futures research and foresight work
Infinite Futures