The document presents a shift-share analysis of employment growth in Ceará, Brazil, from 2000 to 2005, detailing how regional, national, and industry factors contribute to job changes. Key findings indicate that population density positively correlates with employment growth, while agglomeration diseconomies in the capital, Fortaleza, hinder its job creation. The analysis categorizes municipalities based on their growth dynamics, revealing that many regions experienced positive net employment change despite a significant number showing negative industry mix components.

2. Shift share analysis is a traditional tool; through a descriptive analysis
of the productive structure, it allows the comparison of regional
differences within a country, region or state (SIMÕES, 2004).
The
analysis
is
primarily
used
to
decompose
employment
changes, change in gross domestic product etc. within an economy over
a specific period of time.
Can be used to analyze individual industries or the whole economy.

3. 
National Share (NS) Component
 Share of regional job growth attributable to growth of the
national economy
 “If the regional industry grew at the industry’s national
growth rate, what would be the result?”
NS
t
ir
E
t 1
ir
t
EUS
1
t 1
EUS

4. 
Industry Mix (IM) or Proportionality Shift Component
 Reflects differences in industry “mix” between the local and
national levels.
 Estimates how many jobs were created/not created in each
industry due to differences in industry and total national growth
rates.
IM
t
ir
t
Eir 1
t
EiUS
t 1
EiUS
t
EUS
t
EUS1

5. 
Regional Shift (RS) or Differential Shift Component
 Describes the extent to which unique local factors relate to
regional industrial employment growth or decline.
 How many jobs are created/not created as a result of the
region’s competitiveness?
RS
t
ir
E
t 1
ir
t
Eir
t
Eir 1
t
EiUS
t 1
EiUS

6. The actual change in employment for the region
Eir = IMtir + NStir + RStir
Net Shift Component
(Eir - NStir )= IMtir + RStir

7. +
Total Regional Growth>National
Growth
-
Total Regional Growth<National
Growth
Proportionality
Shift Component
+
-
Industry of interest is growing
Differential Shift
Component
+
Local competitiveness is present for
economic growth
-
Local competiveness is absent for
economic growth
Net Shift
Component
Industry of interest is declining

8. Shift-share does not account impact of business
cycles, identification of actual comparative advantages
and differences caused by levels of industrial detail.
Shift-share analysis examines employment changes, not
changes in income, earnings, or value-added, which are
alternative measures of an industry's size and strength.
A shift-share industrial analysis is a "snap-shot" of 2
particular time frames and may not give an entirely clear
picture of the local and national economies

9. Name of the Article
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN CEARA: A SHIFT-SHARE
ANALYSIS (2000-2005)
Author
Cláudio André Gondim Nogueira
Daniel A. Feitosa Lopes
Between 2000 and 2005, formal employment grew by 33.15% in
Ceara (Brazil). This paper examines the dynamics of employment
growth in the State of Ceara and its municipalities between 2000
and 2005.

10. Objectives
•To analyze which municipalities and sectors contributed the
most to such growth through a shift-share analysis of
employment.
•To analyze which factors affect the process of job creation at
the municipal level.

11.  Data CollectionFormal Employment of “Ceara” State (184 Municipality)
Analysis of a Specific Municipality
Analysis of a Specific Sector
Regression Analysis to Identify Location Factor

12. Major Findings
Differential effect is positively correlated to the municipalities’
population
density
up
to
a
point
where
agglomeration
diseconomies actually reduce employment creation.
Municipalities with economic clusters tend to have a greater
differential effect than others and this effect is smaller the further
away they are located from Fortaleza, the State’s capital.
Fortaleza, the State’s capital, the results show that employment
grew at a slower pace there if compared to almost all other
neighboring municipalities, which is due to strong agglomeration
diseconomies in Fortaleza.

13. Possible Analysis in Bangladesh
To analyze regional competitive scenario
Factor/DataGDP, No. of Employment, No. of Service
Activity, Structure Type, Road Type, Amount of
Open Space, Utility Facilities etc.

14. Thanks for your patience…..
Q/A

15. Analysis of a Specific Municipality
Finding the formal employment growth rate.
 Categorization of Ceara's municipalities according
to the values of the mix and share components
following the typology of Simões (2004).

17. Proportionality Shift
+
A1
+
-
A2
-
+
A3
Net Shift < 0
Categories
+
Net Shift > 0
Differential Shift
+
B1
+
-
B2
-
-
B3

20. Findings
20 out of the 184 municipalities presented negative growth ;
119 of them presented a positive net component.
Approximately 64.6% of Ceara’s municipalities presented a
positive net component and none of them had a negative share
component (i.e. there is no municipality classified as A2).
The majority of the municipalities that presented a negative net
component also had a negative share component (approximately
32.6% of the total were classified as B2 or B3).

21. Findings
128 of Ceara’s municipalities, which represents approximately 69.5%
of the total, presented a negative mix component during the period
between 2000 and 2005 (those in categories A3, B1 and B3).
124
out
of
the
184
municipalities
approximately 67.3% of the
in
Ceara,
representing
total presented a positive share
component in the period considered. This component is particularly
important since approximately 96.0% of the municipalities that had a
positive share component also presented a positive net component
and there was no municipality classified as A2.

22. Explanation of the equations
NS : National Share
IM : Industry Mix/Proportionality Shift
RS: Regional/Local Shift/Differential Shift
E= Employment
t = current time period
t-1 = one year ago
i = specific industry r = specific region
USt-1 = total number of jobs in the nation at the beginning
of the analysis period (t-1)
USt = total number of jobs in the nation at the end of the
analysis period (t)

23. References
Lopes, Cláudio André Gondim Nogueira and Daniel A. Feitosa. (n.d.). EMPLOYMENT
GROWTH IN CEARA: A SHIFT-SHARE ANALYSIS (2000-2005). Retrieved 4 20, 2011, from
IPECE: www2.ipece.ce.gov.br/encontro/artigos_2008/16.pdf
Geoffrey .J.D. Hewings, M. A. (2008, 9). INCORPORATING SECTORAL STRUCTURE .
Retrieved 4 19, 2011, from REAL,The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign :
www.real.uiuc.edu/.
SHIFT SHARE ANALYSIS NARRATIVE . (2002, 1 25). Retrieved 4 18, 2011, from
socrates.cdr.state.tx.us/iSocrates/files/ShiftShareNarrative.pdf
Quintero, James Paul, " Regional Economic Development: An Economic Base Study and ShiftShare Analysis of Hays County, Texas" (2007). Applied Research Projects, Texas State
University-San Marcos. Paper 259. http://ecommons.txstate.edu/arp/259