Seismic Risk Assessment for Portugal
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This study conducted a seismic risk assessment for Portugal using probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and developing new exposure and vulnerability models. A probabilistic seismic hazard model was developed considering logic trees for ground motion models, seismic source characterizations, and other parameters. An exposure model was created using a national building census to characterize Portugal's building stock. Fragility functions were developed for reinforced concrete and masonry structures. Probabilistic loss estimates were calculated at different spatial scales to identify regions in Portugal where risk mitigation measures should be prioritized.
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Seismic Risk Assessment for Portugal
- 1. Seismic Risk Assessment for Portugal Vitor Silva1,2, Helen Crowley2, Humberto Varum1, Rui Pinho3 1 University of Aveiro, Portugal 2 GEM Foundation, Italy 3 University of Pavia, Italy
- 2. Current Seismic Hazard and Risk assessment in Portugal ‣ Portugal is located in a region with low to moderate seismic hazard; ‣ National building portfolio is characterized by a large fraction of masonry construction; ‣ Various Studies already exist regarding the seismic risk assessment in Portugal (LNEC, IST, FEUP, UA, UMinho); ‣ Present study represented a chance to investigate new PSHA models, up-to-date building portfolio and new vulnerability model. ‣ Test the open-source software from the Global Earthquake Model initiative.
- 3. Probabilistic Seismic hazard model for Portugal ‣ Hazard model proposed by Vilanova and Fonseca in 2007
- 4. Probabilistic Seismic hazard model for Portugal ‣ Consideration of a large logic tree structure a(M>4.0) 0.6 0.4 ‣ Ground motion models from Akkar and Bommer (2010) and Atkinson and Boore (2007) SA 0.6 SB 0.4 CA 0.4 CB 0.6 RA 0.5 RB 0.5 Zonation Catalogue Earthquake recurrence Max (source) 0.5 0.5 a(M>4.6) Max (source) + 0.5 Maximum magnitude
- 5. Probabilistic Seismic hazard for Portugal Mean hazard map 16th percentile -6° W 42° N 42° N 41° N 41° N 40° N 40° N 39° N 39° N 38° N 38° N 37° N 37° N -6° W -7° W -7° W -9° W -9° W -8° W -8° W PGA (g) <0.04 0.04 - 0.05 0.07 - 0.09 0.09 - 0.10 0.10 - 0.12 0.12 - 0.14 0.14 - 0.16 0.16 - 0.18 0.18 - 0.20 >0.20 84th percentile
- 6. Development of an up-to-date Exposure Model ‣ Strongly based on the CENSUS Survey of 2011 6∞ W 42∞ N 42∞ N 41∞ N 41∞ N 40∞ N 40∞ N 39∞ N 39∞ N N∞ buildings 67867 - 70000 70001 - 89320 89321 - 98561 98562 - 120882 120883 - 198860 198861 - 214891 214892 - 268450 268451 - 442992 38∞ N 38∞ N 37∞ N 37∞ N 6∞ W 7∞ W 7∞ W 8∞ W 8∞ W 9∞ W 9∞ W 6∞ W 42∞ N 42∞ N 41∞ N 41∞ N 40∞ N 40∞ N 39∞ N 39∞ N N∞ buildings 1449 - 4088 4089 - 6389 6390 - 9433 9434 - 13834 13835 - 21268 21269 - 31547 31548 - 51724 51725 - 81827 38∞ N 38∞ N 37∞ N 37∞ N 6∞ W 7∞ W 7∞ W 8∞ W 8∞ W 9∞ W 9∞ W 9∞ W 42∞ N 42∞ N 41∞ N 41∞ N 40∞ N 40∞ N 39∞ N 39∞ N 38∞ N 38∞ N 37∞ N 37∞ N ‣ Building distribution at three administrative levels 6∞ W 6∞ W 7∞ W 7∞ W 8∞ W 8∞ W 9∞ W N∞ buildings 33 - 327 328 - 607 608 - 963 964 - 1457 1458 - 2120 2121 - 3196 3197 - 5550 5551 - 10455
- 7. Development of an up-to-date Exposure Model ‣ Buildings have been organized in terms of construction materials, number of storeys and time of construction (design level) RC M1 M2 M3 OT 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% < 1919 1919 - 1945 1946-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2011 Percentage of buildings Date of constru on RC M1 M2 M3 OT 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 > 7 Percentage of buildings Number storeys
- 8. Development of an up-to-date Exposure Model ‣ Buildings have been organized in terms of construction materials, number of storeys and time of construction (design level) D C 1985 - 2011 A B C A B 1960 - 1985
- 9. Development of an up-to-date Exposure Model a) Reinforced concrete b) common masonry c) weak masonry
- 10. Probabilistic Seismic hazard model for Portugal
- 11. Development of an up-to-date Exposure Model 7∞ W 8∞ W 9∞ W 1x1 km2
- 12. Development of an up-to-date Exposure Model ‣ Two exposure models with different spatial resolutions
- 13. Development of a new fragility/vulnerability model ‣ For reinforced concrete (bare-frame) structures, 200 drawings were analyzed Pre-code Post-code 50 40 30 20 10 0 Low-rise Mid-rise High-rise Number of buildings
- 14. Development of a new fragility/vulnerability model ‣ RC 2D frame representative of a building typology Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn
- 15. Development of a new fragility/vulnerability model Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Hr Hr Dbeam Hg Dcolumn Hr Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Hr Hr Dbeam Hg Dcolumn Hr Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Hr Hr Dbeam Hg Dcolumn Hr Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Hr Hr Hr Dbeam Dcolumn Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Hr Hr Dbeam Hg Dcolumn Hr Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Hr Hr Dbeam Hg Dcolumn Hr Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Hr Hr Hr Dbeam Hg Dcolumn Wbeam Wcolumn Hr Hr Dbeam Hg Dcolumn Hr Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn Hr Hr Hr Hg Wbeam Wcolumn Dbeam Dcolumn 100 ground motion records
- 16. Development of a new fragility/vulnerability model ‣ Fragility models following two damage criteria 0 0.5 1 1.5 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Probability of exceedance Spectral acceleration (g) 0 0.5 1 1.5 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Spectral acceleration (g) Probability of exceedance Slight Moderate Extensive Collapse Global drift Inter-storey drift
- 17. Development of a new fragility/vulnerability model
- 18. Development of a new fragility/vulnerability model ‣ For masonry typologies, a simpler methodology was employed 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Spectral displacement (m) Spectral acceleration (g) 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Spectral acceleration (g) x=5% T=0.46s Probabilisty of exceedance PGA: 0.06g x=5.7% PGA: 0.09g x=6.4% PGA: 0.15g x=9.1% PGA: 0.26g x=15% Slight Moderate Extensive Collapse Capacity curves from the work of Carvalho et al. 2002 were combined with the capacity Spectrum method (Freeman, 2002) to derive sets of fragility curves
- 19. Seismic risk for Portugal ‣ Probabilistic losses for a 475 years return period (parish resolution)
- 20. Seismic risk for Portugal ‣ Probabilistic losses for a 475 years return period (gridded resolution)
- 21. Seismic risk for Portugal ‣ Disaggregation of losses per building typology 1 2 3 4 5-7 >8 10 8 6 4 2 0 M3 M0 PC M0 MC M0 C RC PC RC MC RC C Number Storeys Economic losses (billion €) Constru on material and Design level
- 22. What can one do with these results? ‣ Identification of the regions where risk mitigation measures should be applied; ‣ Understanding of the expected average annual losses to establish insurance premiums; ‣ Development of insurance mechanisms (e.g. TCIP); ‣ Identification of the building typologies contributing to the total losses, and recommend retrofitting interventions; ‣ Evaluation the effectiveness of the current design regulations in terms of economic losses; ‣ Employ the direct losses (seismic risk) in an integrated risk evaluation (socio-economic vulnerability/resilience)
- 23. Seismic Risk Assessment for Portugal Thank you
- 24. Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to - www.globalearthquakemodel.org Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/