The European [SHARE] Seismic Hazard Model: Genesis, Evolution and Key Aspects L. Danciu , J. Woessner, D. Giardini and the SHARE Consortium

1. The European [SHARE] Seismic
Hazard Model:
Genesis, Evolution and Key Aspects
L. Danciu , J. Woessner, D. Giardini and the SHARE Consortium

2. GSHAP
[1999]
SESAME
[2003]
European
PSHA
Model:
Genesis
[2013]

3. European
PSHA
Model:
Goals
Harmonize
hazard
assessment
across
na.onal
borders
On
data
level,
modeling
level
and
procedural
level
Create
a
community-­‐based
Cme-­‐independent
(rock)
reference
hazard
model
for
the
Euro-­‐Mediterranean
region
Keep
close
connec.on
to
engineering
requirements
of
EC8
and
its
future
revision

4. European
PSHA
Model:
Goals
Hazard
So@ware
“Black
Box”
INPUT
OUTPUT
“Easy
Review”
Box
Data
Interpreta.ons
Assump.ons
All
steps
of
the
seismic
hazard
assessment
have
to
be:
• Validated
• Benchmarked
• Reproducible
All
data
is
documented
and
open
to
access!

5. Earthquake Catalog: SHEEC
Stucchi
et
al.,
2012
(J.
of
Seismology)
Grünthal
et
al.,
2012
(J.
of
Seismology)

6. SHEEC Completeness Super- Zones
M.
Stucchi
,
A,
Rovida
G.
Grünthal

7. http://www.emidius.eu/SHEEC/

8. Strategy for Mmax in Different Tectonic Regimes
C.
Mele4,
V.
D’Amico
(INGV)
EPRI
approach

9. Distribution of Mmax in Different Tectonic Regimes
C.
MeleX,
V.
D’Amico
(INGV)
EPRI
approach

10. Mmax spatial distribution
Highest
Mmax
Lowest
weight
(w
=
0.1)
Lowest
Mmax
Highest
weight
(w
=
0.5)

11. Building the SHARE Source Model
TradiConal
Area
Source
(AS)
Model
Fault
Source
(FS)
+
Background
(BG)
Model
Smoothed
Seismicity
Model
(Woo,
1996;
Grünthal
et
al.,
in
prep)
StochasCc
Earthquake
Source
Model
(Hiemer
et
al.;
Woessner
et
al.;
in
prep.)

12. SHARE Source Model – Logic Tree
TradiConal
Area
Source
(AS)
Model

13. Area Source Model [As Model]: Crustal Sources

14. As Model: Subduction Interface

15. As Model: Subduction Interface

16. Area Source Model: Crustal and Deep SourcesAs Model: Crustal + Subduction + Deep Seismicity

17. As Model: Seismic Activity Computation
-­‐2.5
-­‐2.0
-­‐1.5
-­‐1.0
-­‐0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
Log
N
Mw
Data
post
1800
Data
post
1965
Best
fit
Uncertainty
(1)
Uncertainty
(2)
b
0.953
0.916
0.878
0.84
0.802
5.731
0.009
0.027
0.028
0.010
0.001
A
5.426
0.020
0.073
0.096
0.043
0.006
5.121
0.021
0.089
0.147
0.085
0.015
4.842
0.015
0.049
0.100
0.073
0.017
4.563
0.002
0.012
0.030
0.028
0.008
A
is
number
of
events
≥
0.0
Mw
per
year
Example:
Corfu
Island,
Greece
Courtesy
to
R.
Musson

18. As Model : Summary of the Activity Parameters
Large
spa*al
varia*on
on
b-­‐values
within
the
same
tectonic
regime

19. As Model: Fitting Results
The
beauty
The
ugly

20. As Model: Fitting Results
200yrs
75
yrs
The
dangerous

21. As Model – Activity Adjustments
• Expert
Fiang

22. As Model – Adjusted Activity Spatial Distribution
b-­‐value
spa*al
varia*on
was
reduced

23. As Model: PGA Hazard Map - PoEs10%50yrs

24. SHARE Source Model Logic Tree
Fault
Source
(FS)
+
Background
(BG)
Model

25. Faults & Background Source Model [FsFb Model]

26. Faults & Background Source Model [FsFb Model]

27. Faults & Background Source Model [FsFb Model]
 AcCvity
rates
are
calculated
from
geologic
informaCon:
• Slip rate
• Fault length / aspect ratio
• Maximum Magnitude
 Recurrence
Rate
Model:
• Fault Source (M ≥ 6)
Anderson & Luco (1983) Model 2:
• Background (M < 6.5): modeled like Area Source Model
• b-value assumed to be equal on-/ off-fault

28. FsFb Model: Activity Estimation
background
faults

29. FsFb Model: Activity Estimation (con.nue)

30. FsFb Model: PGA Hazard Map 10%PoE 50yrs

31. R.
Basili
et
al
2013
hbp://diss.rm.ingv.it/share-­‐edsf/

32. SHARE Source Model Logic Tree
StochasCc
Earthquake
Source
Model
(Hiemer
et
al.;
Woessner
et
al.;
in
prep.)

33. Kernel Smooth Seismicity and Fault Model
Seismicity
Faults
(SSZ)
Procedure
1. Calculate spatial location PDFs
 Smoothed Seismicity: PE
 Smoothed Faults: PF
2. Weighting
 Linear weighting according to
probabilities PF and PE
3. Calculate earthquake rate
 Only Seismicity: R=PE*N(MW=6.5)
 Only Faults: R=PF*N(MW=8.5)
Seismicity
Faults
Normalized
Earthquake
Rate

34. Kernel Smooth Seismicity and Fault Model
 Optimize kernel using a
CSEP likelihood tests
 Split catalog in learning and
target period
 Optimize on 5 year target
period
 Use best likelihood-value to
generate model rates
Learning Period Target Period
1000 2002 2007

35. Kernel Smooth Seismicity and Fault Model
S.
Hiemer
et
al
2013

36. Kernel Smooth Seismicity and Fault Model
PGA
Hazard
Map
10%PoE
50yrs

37. Ground Motion
Prediction Equations [GMPEs]
Logic Tree

38. Procedure to the SHARE-GMPE Logic Tree
 Engineering requirements
were (WP2) defined as
constraint at the beginning of
the project (a “wish list”)
 Differences in coverage of
magnitude – distance and
frequency range poses
challenges for hazard
computation
Delavaud
et
al.,
2012,
J.
Seis.

39. Procedure to the SHARE-GMPE Logic Tree
SHARE
-­‐
Strong
Ground
Mo.on
Dataset
(Scherbaum
et
al.
[2009];
Delavaud
et
al.
[2009])
Experts
Opinion
Data
Driven

40. SHARE - GMPE Logic Tree
Delavaud
et
al.,
2012,
J.
Seis.

41. SHARE Logic Tree Weights
• Proposed weighting schemes for active shallow crust:!

42. GMPEs Weighting Schemes Sensitivity"

43. GMPEs Weighting Schemes Sensitivity"
Percentage Difference
Results:!
• Area Source: !
• The Percentage Difference
(%) is within 5 to 11%!
• Highest values when
compared with WS7 !
WS6:
WS7:
AB2010(0.35)
AB2010(0.10)
CF2008(0.35)
CF2008(0.40)
Zhao06(0.10)
Zhao06(0.10)
CY2008(0.20)
CY2008(0.40)

44. Results

45. Quality Checks
 Moment comparisons to strain rate model for
the single source models
 CSEP rate forecast test vs. independent
data of USGS / NEIC
 Comparison to previous hazard
assessments
 Sensitivity analysis on
 Depth distribution
 Point source vs. Extended source
calculations

46. Mean Seismic Hazard Map
As
Model
Fs
Model
SEIFA
Model
10%PoE
50yrs

47. PGA: 10% Prob. Of Exceedance in 50y
Difference
to
Mean
Model
95%
Quan.le

48. PGA – Quantile 10% PoE 50y

53. PGA Disaggregation: Basel
2%PoEs50yrs

54. EUROPEAN
FACILITY
FOR
HAZARD
AND
RISK
www.efehr.org

55. SHARE
Consortium
hlp://www.share-­‐eu.org/