The document discusses the South America Integrated Risk Assessment (SARA) project, which aims to develop risk models for 13 countries in South America with a total population of over 402 million people. The project focuses on developing exposure and vulnerability models for major cities in the region with informal construction. Several countries, including Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela, plan to create detailed exposure models and fragility functions for major cities to analyze risk and inform mitigation efforts.

1. Joint Risk Assessment in South America
Catalina Yepes Estrada
GEM Foundation, Pavia -Italy

2. The “South America integrated Risk Assessment” (SARA) project
South America Regional program
•
13 countries
•
Total population > 402 Million
•
Developing countries
–
Big cities
–
Informal construction

3. The “South America integrated Risk Assessment” (SARA) project
South America Regional program
Magnitude
Global Centroid Moment Tensor Catalogue (GCMT)
1976 -2014
•
13 countries
•
Total population ~ 402 Million
•
Developing countries
–
Big cities
–
Informal construction

4. Population in 2012 ~ 191 million
•Colombia
47’704.427
(25%)
•Argentina
40’117.096
(21%)
•Peru
29’987.800
(16%)
•Venezuela
29’954.782
(16%)
•Chile
17’464.814
(9%)
•Ecuador
15’492.264
(8%)
•Bolivia
10’496.285
(5%)
The “South America integrated Risk Assessment” (SARA) project
South America Regional program

5. Workshop in Medellin (Colombia)
Special focus on exposure and vulnerability
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Training on the Inventory Data Capture tools
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Introduction to the GEM taxonomy
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Derivation of Exposure Models

6. An initial attempt for a unified South American risk model
hazard map –475 years
Loss map –475 years

7. Colombia, a regional study for Antioquia (Univ. of EAFIT)
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The second largest city (after Bogota)
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>13% of the population of the country
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The Metropolitan area has around 3.5 million of inhabitants (~60%)
•
The region is divided in:
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9 sub-regions
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125 municipalities
EXPOSURE
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Number of stories
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Socio-economical strata
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Virtual visual inspection (when needed)

8. Antioquia, the second most populated region in Colombia
Medellin (Zone 1)
Medellin (Zone 2)
Medellin (Zone 3)
Medellin (outskirts)
Sonson(South-East)
Caucasia (Bajocauca-North)
Cisneros (North-East)
Yondo(Magdalena medio-East)
Apartado(Uraba, North–East)

9. Antioquia, the second most populated region in Colombia

10. Antioquia, the second most populated region in Colombia

11. •
Chile has a population around 17 million Around 40% of the population is concentrated in Santiago
•
Detail exposure models for:
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Iquique
–
Talca
–
Osorno
A national model for Chile+ detailed models for 3 cities (CIGIDEN)
EXPOSURE
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Census
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Data from the Chamber of Construction
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Visual inspection in the selected cities
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Virtual visual inspection in other regions

12. A national model for Chile+ detailed models for 3 cities
Built area (m2) between 2002 a 2011
Reinforced concrete < 1972
Reinforced concrete
21-30 storeys, < 1972
Reinforced concrete
4-9 storeys, < 1972
Wood, 1 storey
Confined masonry
3-5 storeys
Confined masonry
1 storey + a 2nd light storey
Confined masonry
1 storey
Reinforced masonry
1 storey
Reinforced masonry
3-5 storeys
Adobe
1 storey
Adobe
2storeys

13. Data collection after Iquique earthquake (April, 2014)

14. A national model for Chile+ detailed models for 3 cities (CIGIDEN)

15. Ecuador, a city scenario for Quito
Universidad San Francisco de Quito
+
Quito Municipality
What is the plan?
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Create exposure model for the city
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Developing of new fragility functions
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Use microzonation study for hazard
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Damage scenarios and risk (using OQ- engine)
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Analysis of results and development of seismic risk mitigation program proposal
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Communication strategy
Quito and the Metropolitan Area
have around 2.5 million inhabitants (~20%)

16. Peru, a city scenario for Lima (CISMID)
What is the plan?
•
Create a detailed exposure model for a significant area in the region
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Create the exposure model for the metropolitan area
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Develop fragility and vulnerability functions
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Perform damage scenarios and classical probabilistic risk using OQ-engine
Lima and the Metropolitan Area
have around 8.7 million inhabitants (~30%)

17. Country level model for Venezuela
What is the plan?
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Description of building typologies
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Create exposure model at municipality level
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Review of existing vulnerability models
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Develop fragility and vulnerability functions
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Perform damage scenarios and classical probabilistic risk using OQ-engine
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Socio-economic indicators and social risk
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Analysis of results and development of seismic risk mitigation program proposal

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Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to - www.globalearthquakemodel.org