The document discusses the OpenQuake-engine software for seismic risk assessment. It can perform probabilistic and scenario-based hazard and risk calculations considering various uncertainties. Different calculators within OpenQuake allow scenario risk assessment, scenario damage assessment, probabilistic event-based risk analysis, and benefit-cost analysis of retrofitting options. The software is open source and can be run on single computers or cloud platforms.

1. Risk studies using
OpenQuake-engine
Catalina Yepes Estrada, Vitor Silva, Helen Crowley
GEM Foundation, Pavia, Italy

2. Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine
an Open Source Software for Seismic Risk Assessment

3. Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine
 Free, publically available and open-source
 Combines hazard and risk calculations
 Scenario and probabilistic seismic hazard and risk
 Considers a wide spectrum of uncertainties
 Different types of assets can be considered
 Allows calculations at many scales
 Runs on single laptop as well as on a cloud

4. Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine
Scenario
risk
Scenario
damage
Benefit-cost
ratio
Probabilistic
event-based risk
Classical PSHA
based risk

5. Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine
Scenario
risk
Scenario
damage
Benefit-cost
ratio
Probabilistic
event-based risk
Classical PSHA
based risk

6. Scenario Risk Calculator
Median ground motion field Exposure model Vulnerability functions

7. Scenario Risk Calculator
Ground motion fields Exposure model Vulnerability functions
Loss statistics Mean loss map

8. Scenario Risk - Pisco Mw 8.0 (Peru, August 2007)

9. Scenario Risk - Pisco Mw 8.0 (Peru, August 2007)

10. Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine
Scenario
risk
Scenario
damage
Benefit-cost
ratio
Probabilistic
event-based risk
Classical PSHA
based risk

11. Scenario Damage Calculator
Ground motion fields Exposure model Fragility functions
Damage Distribution Damage map

12. Scenario Damage Calculator
Distribution of damage per building typology

13. Scenario Damage Calculator
Distribution of damage per building typology (percentage of total exposed buildings )

14. Scenario Damage Calculator

15. Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine
Scenario
risk
Scenario
damage
Benefit-cost
ratio
Probabilistic
event-based risk
Classical PSHA
based risk

16. Classical PSHA-based Calculator
Sets of hazard curves Exposure model Vulnerability functions
Loss curves Loss maps

17. Economic loss map for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years
Mean loss map 16th percentile
-6° W
42° N 42° N
41° N 41° N
40° N 40° N
39° N 39° N
38° N 38° N
37° N 37° N
-6° W
-7° W
-7° W
-8° W
-8° W
-9° W
-9° W
Economic loss
(million €)
< 2.5
2.5 -­4.6
4.6 -­7.2
7.2 -­11.0
11.0 -­16.1
16.1 -­23.6
23.6 -­39.9
39.9 -­67.2
67.2 -­120.6
> 120.6
84th percentile
Classical PSHA based risk calculator
Mean loss map 16th percentile
6° W
42° N 42° N
41° N 41° N
40° N 40° N
39° N 39° N
38° N 38° N
37° N 37° N
6° W
7° W
7° W
8° W
8° W
9° W
9° W
Economic loss
(million €)
< 2.5
2.5 - 4.6
4.6 - 7.2
7.2 - 11.0
11.0 -16.1
16.1 -23.6
23.6 - 39.9
39.9 -67.2
67.2 - 120.6
>120
84th percentile
Loss exceedance curve
for each asset in the exposed portfolio

18. Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine
Scenario
risk
Scenario
damage
Benefit-cost
ratio
Probabilistic
event-based risk
Classical PSHA
based risk

19. Probabilistic Event-based Risk Calculator
Sets ground motion fields Exposure model Vulnerability functions
Loss curves Loss maps

20. Probabilistic event-based risk calculator
Risk assessment for
downtown Pavia (Italy)
• 1255 building
• Soil effects  Vs30
• 100.000 stochastic event sets
• 1 Year investigation time

21. Probabilistic event-based risk calculator
Loss map 2%, 10% and 50%
Probability of Exceedance in 50
years < 100€
140€ - 190€
300€ - 400€
> 600€
Aggregated loss curve
AAL 4.8 M€ 
0.6% total replacement cost

22. Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine
Scenario
risk
Scenario
damage
Benefit-cost
ratio
Probabilistic
event-based risk
Classical PSHA
based risk

23. Benefit-cost ratio calculator
15000
12000
9000
6000
3000
0
EAL-C EAL-R
Average expected annual loss (dollars)
Loss exceedance curve
r  inflation rate
t  life expectancy

24. Benefit-cost ratio calculator
Original vulnerability model Retrofitted vulnerability model

25. Benefit-cost ratio calculator
15000
12000
9000
6000
3000
0
EAL-C EAL-R
Average expected annual loss (dollars)
Loss exceedance curve
r  inflation rate
t  life expectancy
It is a decision-support tool that helps to understand whether
retrofitting interventions are justifiable from an economical perspective

26. Benefit-cost ratio calculator
Benefit/cost ratio, AAL(original) and AAL(retrofitted).

27. Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine
Classical PSHA-based Risk Calculator Scenario Damage Assessment Calculator
Improved Performance
Scenario Risk Calculator
Benefit-cost Ratio Calculator
Probabilistic Event-based Risk Calculator
Extended data model
Insured losses
Fixed bugs
QA tests
Beta distributions

28. Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine
Thank you!

29. Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to -
www.globalearthquakemodel.org
Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under:
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/