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New	Risks
Ergebnisse
Paula	Díaz
Ziel	der	Studie
Elektrizität	Szenarien	um	unsere	zukünftigen	Elektrizitätsbedürfnisse	zu	decken
- Welche	technologischen	Implikationen	könnte	es	geben?
- Um	wie	viel	könnte	der	Strompreis	steigen?
National	REN
&
Gas
National	REN	
&	
Importe
Energieperspektiven
National	REN
&
Gas
National	REN	
&	
Importe
Energieperspektiven
Nord	See
Marokko
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12
Hours
GWh
Demand
Technologies
Hydro dam
Pumped storage (Cons)
Pumped storage (Prod)
Run−of−river
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12
Hours
GWh
Technologies
Gas
Hydro dam
Pumped storage (Cons)
Pumped storage (Prod)
Run−of−river
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
Demand
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12
HoursGWh
Technologies
Gas
Hydro dam
Pumped storage (Cons)
Pumped storage (Prod)
Run−of−river
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
Demand
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12
Hours
GWh
Technologies
Gas
Hydro dam
Pumped storage (Cons)
Pumped storage (Prod)
Run−of−river
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
Demand
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12
Hours
GWh
Technologies
Gas
Hydro dam
Pumped storage (Cons)
Pumped storage (Prod)
Run−of−river
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
Demand
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12
Hours
GWh
Technologies
Gas
Hydro dam
Pumped storage (Cons)
Pumped storage (Prod)
Run−of−river
Wind onshore
Demand
(A) (B) (C)
(A) Gas intensiv
(B) Gas limitiert
(C) 100% erneuerbaren Energien
2035
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12
Hours
GWh
Demand
Technologies
CSP
Gas
Hydro dam
Photovoltaic
Pumped storage (Cons)
Pumped storage (Prod)
Run−of−river
Wind onshore
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12
Time
GWh
Demand
Variables
CSP
Hydro dam
Photovoltaic
Pumped storage (Cons)
Pumped storage (Prod)
Run−of−river
Wind onshore
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12
Hours
GWh
Technologies
Gas
Hydro dam
Pumped storage (Cons)
Pumped storage (Prod)
Run−of−river
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
Demand
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12
Hours
GWh
Demand
Technologies
CSP
Gas
Hydro dam
Photovoltaic
Pumped storage (Cons)
Pumped storage (Prod)
Run−of−river
Wind onshore
−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12
Hours
GWh
Technologies
Gas
Hydro dam
Pumped storage (Cons)
Pumped storage (Prod)
Run−of−river
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
Demand
Hours
(B) (C)
2035
(B) Gas limitiert
(C) 100% erneuerbaren Energien
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2016 A - Carbon
intensive
B - Carbon
as ES2050
C - Carbon
free
B - Carbon
as ES2050
C - Carbon
free
Installedcapacity(MW)
Nuclear
CSP
Wind offshore
Gas
Photovoltaic
Wind onshore
Hydro dam
Hydro pumped storage
Hydro run off river
Imports from Morocco
Imports from North SeaDomestic
2035
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2016 A-Carbon
intensive
B-Carbon
asES2050
C-Carbon
free
B-Carbon
asES2050
C-Carbon
free
Installedcapacity(MW)
Nuclear
CSP
Windoffshore
Gas
Photovoltaic
Windonshore
Hydrodam
Hydropumpedstorage
Hydrorunoffriver
ImportsfromMorocco
ImportsfromNorthSeaDomestic
2035
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2016 A - Carbon
intensive
B - Carbon
as ES2050
C - Carbon
free
B - Carbon
as ES2050
C - Carbon
free
Installedcapacity(MW)
Nuclear
CSP
Wind offshore
Gas
Photovoltaic
Wind onshore
Hydro dam
Hydro pumped storage
Hydro run off river
Imports from Morocco
Imports from North SeaDomestic
2035
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2016 A-Carbon
intensive
B-Carbon
asES2050
C-Carbon
free
B-Carbon
asES2050
C-Carbon
free
ElectricityProduction(TWh/y)
Nuclear
CSP
Windoffshore
Gas
Photovoltaic
Windonshore
Hydrodam
Hydropumpedstorage
Hydrorunoffriver
ImportsfromMorocco
ImportsfromNorthSeaDomestic
2035
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2016 A - Carbon
intensive
B - Carbon
as ES2050
C - Carbon
free
B - Carbon
as ES2050
C - Carbon
free
ElectricityProduction(TWh/y)
Nu
CS
Win
Ga
Pho
Win
Hyd
Hyd
Hyd
Imports from Morocco
Imports from North SeaDomestic
2035
Domestic
Imports from
North Sea
Imports from
Morocco
2016 A B C CB
2035
2016 A B C CB
2035
Imports from
Morocco
Domestic
Imports from
North Sea
Leistung (MW) Stromproduktion (TWh/a)
National	REN	
&	
Importe
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
1 Gas A − Carbon intensive2 Wind B − Carbon as ES20503 Wind C − Carbon free4 CSP B − Carbon as ES20505 CSP C − Carbon free
LCOE(CHF/MWh)
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
1 Gas A − Carbon intensive2 Wind B − Carbon as ES20503 Wind C − Carbon free4 CSP B − Carbon as ES20505 CSP C − Carbon free
LCOE(CHF/MWh)
Domestic Imports from
Morocco
Imports from
North Sea
2035
100
118
120
171
162
109
113
103104
9191
101101
99
North Sea &
Morocco
LCOE (CHF / MWh)
Implikationen
(A) Gas intensiv
(B) Gas limitiert
(C) 100% erneuerbaren Energien
2035
Dankeschön	
Paula	Díaz

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Workshop: «Trade-offs der Schweizer Energiewende» ETH Zürich 2017

  • 3.
  • 6. −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 Hours GWh Demand Technologies Hydro dam Pumped storage (Cons) Pumped storage (Prod) Run−of−river Wind offshore Wind onshore −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 Hours GWh Technologies Gas Hydro dam Pumped storage (Cons) Pumped storage (Prod) Run−of−river Wind offshore Wind onshore Demand −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 HoursGWh Technologies Gas Hydro dam Pumped storage (Cons) Pumped storage (Prod) Run−of−river Wind offshore Wind onshore Demand −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 Hours GWh Technologies Gas Hydro dam Pumped storage (Cons) Pumped storage (Prod) Run−of−river Wind offshore Wind onshore Demand −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 Hours GWh Technologies Gas Hydro dam Pumped storage (Cons) Pumped storage (Prod) Run−of−river Wind offshore Wind onshore Demand −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 Hours GWh Technologies Gas Hydro dam Pumped storage (Cons) Pumped storage (Prod) Run−of−river Wind onshore Demand (A) (B) (C) (A) Gas intensiv (B) Gas limitiert (C) 100% erneuerbaren Energien 2035
  • 7. −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 Hours GWh Demand Technologies CSP Gas Hydro dam Photovoltaic Pumped storage (Cons) Pumped storage (Prod) Run−of−river Wind onshore −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 Time GWh Demand Variables CSP Hydro dam Photovoltaic Pumped storage (Cons) Pumped storage (Prod) Run−of−river Wind onshore −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 Hours GWh Technologies Gas Hydro dam Pumped storage (Cons) Pumped storage (Prod) Run−of−river Wind offshore Wind onshore Demand −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 Hours GWh Demand Technologies CSP Gas Hydro dam Photovoltaic Pumped storage (Cons) Pumped storage (Prod) Run−of−river Wind onshore −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 Hours GWh Technologies Gas Hydro dam Pumped storage (Cons) Pumped storage (Prod) Run−of−river Wind offshore Wind onshore Demand Hours (B) (C) 2035 (B) Gas limitiert (C) 100% erneuerbaren Energien
  • 8. 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 2016 A - Carbon intensive B - Carbon as ES2050 C - Carbon free B - Carbon as ES2050 C - Carbon free Installedcapacity(MW) Nuclear CSP Wind offshore Gas Photovoltaic Wind onshore Hydro dam Hydro pumped storage Hydro run off river Imports from Morocco Imports from North SeaDomestic 2035 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 2016 A-Carbon intensive B-Carbon asES2050 C-Carbon free B-Carbon asES2050 C-Carbon free Installedcapacity(MW) Nuclear CSP Windoffshore Gas Photovoltaic Windonshore Hydrodam Hydropumpedstorage Hydrorunoffriver ImportsfromMorocco ImportsfromNorthSeaDomestic 2035 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 2016 A - Carbon intensive B - Carbon as ES2050 C - Carbon free B - Carbon as ES2050 C - Carbon free Installedcapacity(MW) Nuclear CSP Wind offshore Gas Photovoltaic Wind onshore Hydro dam Hydro pumped storage Hydro run off river Imports from Morocco Imports from North SeaDomestic 2035 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2016 A-Carbon intensive B-Carbon asES2050 C-Carbon free B-Carbon asES2050 C-Carbon free ElectricityProduction(TWh/y) Nuclear CSP Windoffshore Gas Photovoltaic Windonshore Hydrodam Hydropumpedstorage Hydrorunoffriver ImportsfromMorocco ImportsfromNorthSeaDomestic 2035 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2016 A - Carbon intensive B - Carbon as ES2050 C - Carbon free B - Carbon as ES2050 C - Carbon free ElectricityProduction(TWh/y) Nu CS Win Ga Pho Win Hyd Hyd Hyd Imports from Morocco Imports from North SeaDomestic 2035 Domestic Imports from North Sea Imports from Morocco 2016 A B C CB 2035 2016 A B C CB 2035 Imports from Morocco Domestic Imports from North Sea Leistung (MW) Stromproduktion (TWh/a)
  • 9. National REN & Importe 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 1 Gas A − Carbon intensive2 Wind B − Carbon as ES20503 Wind C − Carbon free4 CSP B − Carbon as ES20505 CSP C − Carbon free LCOE(CHF/MWh) 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 1 Gas A − Carbon intensive2 Wind B − Carbon as ES20503 Wind C − Carbon free4 CSP B − Carbon as ES20505 CSP C − Carbon free LCOE(CHF/MWh) Domestic Imports from Morocco Imports from North Sea 2035 100 118 120 171 162 109 113 103104 9191 101101 99 North Sea & Morocco LCOE (CHF / MWh) Implikationen (A) Gas intensiv (B) Gas limitiert (C) 100% erneuerbaren Energien 2035