The EMME (Earthquake Model of the Middle East) project developed a probabilistic seismic hazard model and seismic risk assessments for multiple countries in the Middle East region from 2009-2014. The project involved compiling strong motion data, developing ground motion prediction equations, performing probabilistic seismic hazard computations, building inventories and vulnerability assessments, and validating models with past earthquake damage observations. Key to the success of the EMME project was obtaining a high level of contribution from partner countries and basing all aspects of the model on local data and expertise.

1. EMME Earthquake Model
of Middle East
2009 - 2014
A GEM Regional Project
www.emme-gem.org

2. EMME - Earthquake Model of the Middle East region
Regional
Application of
GEM (Global
Earthquake
Model)
Turkey
Cyprus
Lebanon
Jordan
Iran
Iraq
Pakistan
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Georgia

3. EMME Project Modules and Workflow

8. 0.1 1 10 100
Distance, RJB (km)
Magnitude, Mw
8
7
6
5
4
Turkey
Iran
Caucasus
Pakistan
Jordan
Strong Ground
Motion Database
for the EMME
Countries
GMPE logic tree
structure
developed based
on sensitivity
tests

9. Software
OpenQuake is used to
perform the probabilistic
seismic hazard
computations following the
EMME seismic hazard
model.
EMME Seismic Hazard Outputs include:
• hazard curves,
• hazard maps,
• uniform hazard spectra (UHS )
• disaggregation

11. SEISMIC RISK
• Compilation of building inventories (per
country)

12. SEISMIC RISK
• Development building taxonomy (per country)
Building classification of Pakistan

13. SEISMIC RISK
• Development of structural vulnerability
models (per country)

14. SEISMIC RISK
• Validation with observed data (damage
modeling for past earthquakes, e.g. Spitak)
Building
Typologies
Vulnerability indices
Vmin Vav
Masonry M1 0.62 0.873
M2 0.62 0.84
M3 0.46 0.74
M4 0.3 0.616
M5 0.46 0.74
M6 0.3 0.616
M7 0.14 0.451
Reinforced
Concrete
RC1 0.3 0.644
RC2 0.14 0.484
RC3 -0.02 0.324
RC4 0.3 0.544
RC5 0.14 0.384
RC6 -0.02 0.224
Steel S -0.02 0.324
Timber W 0.14 0.447
Distribution of damaged buildings
in Gyumri city after the 1988
Spitak earthquake.

15. SEISMIC RISK
• Assessment of seismic risk

16. KEY POINT IN THE SUCCESS OF THE
EMME PROJECT
• Highest level of contribution from partner
countries
• EMME has been entirely based on local data
and local expertize

17. … and many others.
Thank you all

18. • Presentation on EMME City Scenario
Applications
Wednesday July 2, GEM Booth
• EMME Special Session at the 2ECEES
(http://www.2eceesistanbul.org)