The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation is facilitating global seismic risk assessment by providing open-source software, datasets, models, tools, and expertise. The OpenQuake engine allows probabilistic and scenario-based earthquake risk analysis. GEM has developed global population and exposure datasets, fragility models, and has conducted probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analyses to estimate earthquake impacts and losses around the world. GEM is making these resources openly available to support risk assessment and mitigation efforts globally.

1. Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for
Calculating Risk Across the Globe
Vitor Silva
Global Earthquake Model Foundation
@GEMwrld #10NCEE

2. What is new about the OpenQuake-engine?
• Free, opensource and publically available,
• Combines hazard and risk in a single software
• Allows scenario and probabilistic risk analysis
• Considers a wide spectrum of uncertainties
• Allows calculations at different scales
• Can be run on a laptop or cloud of computers
• Methodologies are fully documented
• Compatible with tools for the development of
hazard and vulnerability models
• Various hazard, vulnerability and exposure models
compatible with this tool

3. What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?
Risk expert
Risk Assessment

4. What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?
Risk Assessment
Risk expert
Data

5. What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?
Risk Assessment
Risk expert
Data

6. What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?
Risk Assessment
Risk expert
Data
Models

7. What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

8. What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?
Risk Assessment
Risk expert
Data
Models
Tools

9. What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

10. What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?
Inventory Data Capture Tools (Android tool)

11. What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?
Status of the GEM Vulnerability Database

12. What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?
Tools to develop fragility and vulnerability models

13. What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?
Tools to develop fragility and vulnerability models

14. What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

15. What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?
Exposure model for Turkey

16. What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?
Sets of fragility functions for Turkey

17. What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Model
Seismic hazard map 475 years

18. What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?
Average annualized economic loss
max 8.3M $
İstanbul
Vanİzmir
Ankara
Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis

19. What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?
Scenario-based loss/damage assessment
Ground motion field Loss map

20. What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?
Risk Assessment
Risk expert
Data
Models
Tools

21. What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?
Risk Assessment
Risk expert
Data
Models
Tools
Expertise

22. What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

23. What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?
Technical reports, scientific publications, books.

24. What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?
Risk Assessment
Risk expert
Data
Models
Tools
Expertise

25. Global Seismic Risk Assessment

26. Global Seismic Risk Assessment
Population distribution by LandScan (2012), GRUMP, GPW

27. Global Seismic Risk Assessment
PAGER Empirical Vulnerability model
(fatalities and economic losses)

28. Global Seismic Risk Assessment

29. Global Seismic Risk Assessment
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0Growthrate
Sub-Saharan Africa Urban Sub-Saharan Africa Rural
Northern Europe Rural Northern Europe Urban
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division

30. Vitor Silva, Helen Crowley, Damiano Monelli, Marco Pagani, Rui Pinho, Graeme
Weatherill, Paolo Bazzurro, Mine Demircioglu, Miriam Colombi, Cuneyt Tuzun,
Xiaoxuan Zhang, Andrea Cerisara, Luis Rodrigues, Sevgi Ozcebe, Chiara
Casotto, Mario Ordaz, Lars Butler, Mustafa Erdik, Matteo Nastasi, Keith Porter,
David Lourenço, Robin Spence, Joanne White, Paul Henshaw, Ross Stein,
Jillian St.Bernard, Ming Lee, Joshua Mckenty, Dirk Hollnack, Mario Marques,
Michele Calvi, Martin Kaser, Alexandros Lalas, Andrew King, Nicolas Luco,
Anselm Smolka, Fabrice Cotton, Alia Juman, Karin Sesetyan, Alberto Monti,
Luis Martins, Yaver Kamer, Stefano Parolai, Catalina Yepes, Nick Horspool,
Marco Furinghetti, Ricardo Monteiro, Massimiliano Pittore, Ken Hao, Cecilia
Nievas, Anirudh Rao, Christopher Burton, Jack Baker, Luis Sousa, Dimitrios
Vamvatsikos, Omar Cardona, Domenico Giardini, John Bevington, Marc
Wieland, Emily So, Dina D’Ayla, Abdelghani Meslen, Luis Sousa, Anne
Kiremidjian, James Brown, Bijan Khazai, Chiara Pigoli, Tiziana Rossetto,
Damian Grant, Marjorie Greene, Kishor Jaiswal, Svetlana Brzev, Daniele
Vigano, David Wald, Gloria Maria Estrada, Michele Simionato, David Lallement,
Amod Dixit, Mary Lou Zoback, Hugo Yepes, Ioanna Ioannou, Paolo Franchin,
Paolo Gamba, Jairo Valcarcel, Ole Hanekop, Ben Wyss, Andy Thompson,

31. Vitor Silva, Helen Crowley, Damiano Monelli, Marco Pagani, Rui Pinho, Graeme
Weatherill, Paolo Bazzurro, Mine Demircioglu, Miriam Colombi, Cuneyt Tuzun,
Xiaoxuan Zhang, Andrea Cerisara, Luis Rodrigues, Sevgi Ozcebe, Chiara
Casotto, Mario Ordaz, Lars Butler, Mustafa Erdik, Matteo Nastasi, Keith Porter,
David Lourenço, Robin Spence, Joanne White, Paul Henshaw, Ross Stein,
Jillian St.Bernard, Ming Lee, Joshua Mckenty, Dirk Hollnack, Mario Marques,
Michele Calvi, Martin Kaser, Alexandros Lalas, Andrew King, Nicolas Luco,
Anselm Smolka, Fabrice Cotton, Alia Juman, Karin Sesetyan, Alberto Monti,
Luis Martins, Yaver Kamer, Stefano Parolai, Catalina Yepes, Nick Horspool,
Marco Furinghetti, Ricardo Monteiro, Massimiliano Pittore, Ken Hao, Cecilia
Nievas, Anirudh Rao, Christopher Burton, Jack Baker, Luis Sousa, Dimitrios
Vamvatsikos, Omar Cardona, Domenico Giardini, John Bevington, Marc
Wieland, Emily So, Dina D’Ayla, Abdelghani Meslen, Luis Sousa, Anne
Kiremidjian, James Brown, Bijan Khazai, Chiara Pigoli, Tiziana Rossetto,
Damian Grant, Marjorie Greene, Kishor Jaiswal, Svetlana Brzev, Daniele
Vigano, David Wald, Gloria Maria Estrada, Michele Simionato, David Lallement,
Amod Dixit, Mary Lou Zoback, Hugo Yepes, Ioanna Ioannou, Paolo Franchin,
Paolo Gamba, Jairo Valcarcel, Ole Hanekop, Ben Wyss, Andy Thompson,

32. Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under:
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to -
www.globalearthquakemodel.org