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Performing Against the Wall
SPI after Completion Date
Prepared by:
Mohamed Maged, MBA, PgDip, CCP, PMP
• Project Control Manager in Projects and Programs Management Office.
• B.Sc. Civil Engineering – Ain Shams University, Egypt.
• PGDIP in Construction Law – Salford University, Manchester, UK.
• Master of Business Administration (MBA) – UoPeople, US.
• SCE-Consultant, Saudi Council of Engineers, SA.
• CCP, Certified Cost Professional credential – AACE, US​.
• PMP, Project Management Professional credential – PMI, US​.
• Author of 50Qs- Construction Contracts Fundamentals & 50Qs- Scheduling Fundamentals.
• PPM Conference Organizer in AUC 2014, 2015 & Online since 2017 – ProfPlanner Groups.
• Practical experience more than 17 years in mega-projects in professions of cost estimation,
planning, cost control, procurement, project control, contract management and delay analysis.
Contents
Definition of Control
Performance M. Baseline
Why Earned Value?
Earned Schedule
Total Float vs SPI
Tricky or Misleading
Delay Indicators
4
What’s Control?
BASELINE
5
•What’s the Baseline Schedule?
The approved version of the schedule,
it’s a reference for progress reporting,
to measure the delays, to analyze any
EOT claim, and study time impact of
any event or change.
Baseline Schedule
Scope Cost Time
6
PMB and Budget
The integration of the technical scope, planning, scheduling, budgeting, and work
authorization results in the Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB).
Management Reserve (MR) is added to the PMB to reach the Contract Budget
Base. The Contract Budget Base, plus any profit or fees, equals the contract price.
Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB)
reflects the approved baseline of the project,
time phased and loaded to cost accounts into
which the program is managed. The baseline can
only be adjusted through an approved change,
via the change management program.
7
Cost Baseline
Planned Cash Flow.
The approved
version of the time-
phased project
budget, excluding
any management
reserves.
8
What is an updated schedule?
It’s a living copy schedule reflecting the project performance data
at a given data date regarding completed activities, in progress
activities, change in the logic, actual cost, and resources usage.
What is data date?
The data date is the date as of which all progress on the project is
reported.
Schedule Update
January 27, 2021
9
Outputs of Update
Baseline
Cash Flow:
Time phased
Budget Value
of Planned
Work
Schedule
Update:
Up to date
Actual Value
of Performed
Work &
remaining
January 27, 2021
10
➢ Earned Value Management
(EVM), started in 1800’s as a
method for integrated
project cost and schedule
control, then in the 1960’s, it
was redesigned by the U.S.
Air Force and named the
Cost/Schedule Planning and
Control System.
Earned Value History
11
Earned Value Management
This’s Why Earned Value…
EVM has been called
“ ”
January 27, 2021
12
Earned Value Analysis
➢ Earned Value (EV)
Analysis: Earned
Value analysis is an
integrated cost-
schedule approach
to monitor and
analyze the progress
of a project.
➢ EV =
Performance%*BAC
January 27, 2021
13
Earned Value Dimensions
➢ When is EV going
to be useless?
If the WP = WS
which happens for
sure at the project
completion if the
scope is the same.
BC-WS
BC-WP
AC-WP
14
Earned Value - Forecasting
(earned)
(actual)
(budgeted)
Forecasted cost variance (FCV) =
CV ∕ % Complete
Schedule variance in days (SV, days) =
SV ($) ∕ Daily planned budget ;
Daily planned budget =
total budget / total duration
Forecasted schedule variance (FSV) =
SV ∕ %Complete
15
15
(earned value)
(actual cost)
(planned value)
Cost baseline
Cash-out
SV= -1,067$
CV= +400$
Daily
planned
budget=
266.67
$ / day
FSV= -15 Days
FCV=
+1500$
% Complete = 26.7%
= - 4 days
16
What does happen at the
Practical Completion?
SPI = EV / PV = Performance% / Scheduled%
Performance%= EV / BAC, Scheduled% = PV / BAC
CPI = EV / AC
Example:
A project of BAC equals to $11M, has been completed with actual cost of $10M
and delayed by 60D additional to the original duration of 600D.
Solution:
BAC = 11M, PV = 11M, AC = 10M, EV = 100%*11M
CPI = EV / AC = 11M/10M = 1.1 … Below Budget (True)
SPI = EV / PV = 11M/11M = 1.0 … On Schedule regardless any delay (False)
17
Up to day 600, all calculations look correct. Let’s calculate it:
On day 600, PV = 11M, EV = 9M & AC = 8M.
CPI = EV / AC = 9M/8M = 1.125 … Below Budget (True)
SPI = EV / PV = 9M/11M = 0.82 … Behind Schedule (True)
One month later, PV = 11M, EV = 10M & AC = 9M.
CPI = EV / AC = 10M/9M = 1.11 … Below Budget (True)
SPI = EV / PV = 10M/11M = 0.91 … Behind Schedule (Improving??!!)
SPI vs CPI at the Contractual
Completion Date
January 27, 2021
18
Time-Based Measures:
Earned Schedule
SPI(time) = PT / AT
AT: Actual Time of Work
Performed (till Data date) (actual
time expended to date (ATE) for a
particular earned value)
PT: Planned Time of Work
Performed (originally planned
duration (OD) for that earned value)
PT
AT
January 27, 2021
19
Scope & Time Control
Time Control:
Schedule factors based
on time.
Forecast Time:
EAC(t) = BAC(t) / SPI (t)
Estimated
Duration
20
Earned Schedule at Completion
Assume the project completed at actual time (AT) of 3 years exceeded the
planned duration (PT) of 2 years by one year more which is 50% duration
increase, what will be the SPIcost vs Earned Schedule??
1-Cost-based Calculation:
SPI(cost) = EV/ PV=1
In case of the same scope, the earned
value will equal to the planned value
at the project completion, and any
delay or duration variance will not
show up like the project is on
schedule in spite of 1 year (50%)
delay.
Vs
2-Time-based Calculation:
Earned Schedule
SPI(time) = PT/ AT= 0.67 < 1
Here the delay shows up, behind
schedule , and the variance in
the duration is expresses, not
like the cost-based calculation
results.
21
Earned Schedule Vs Time
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36
SPI (Cost Vs Time Calculations)
SPI ES
Months
On Schedule
Ahead of
Schedule
Behind
Schedule Behind
Schedule
Like On
Schedule
PV fixed at
Planned
Completion
(PT)
SPI(cost) = EV/ PV
ES (time) = PT/ AT
22
Critical Path Method. estimate the
minimum project duration and determine
the flexibility on the logical network paths.
Forward Pass. A critical path method
technique for calculating the early start
and early finish dates.
Backward Pass. calculating the late start
and late finish dates by working backward
from the project end date.
Total Float. The amount of time that a
schedule activity can be delayed or
extended from its early start date
without delaying the project finish date or
violating a schedule constraint.
Schedule Total Float
23
Negative Float - The total number of days that the start
or finish of an activity exceeds the time allowed.
Negative float indicates a delay in the schedule.
Out-of-Sequence Progress - Work completed for an
activity before it is logically scheduled to occur.
Schedule Update –
Quick Checks
January 27, 2021
24
Total Float Vs EVM
Schedule Factors
Misleading in Each:
1- Out of sequence can disturb the
results of EVM schedule factors specially
if the progress of critical path is different.
2- Availability of resources and resource
usage in remaining works can affect the
rationality of the total float specially if
many paths overlapped in the
remaining duration.
25
Some amount of knowledge brings more……
Earned Value Management
Tricky or Misleading
January 27, 2021
26
TF & SPI analysis
27
TF & SPI Examples
At early stage of a project, Scheduled%=4%, Performance%=2% & TF = Zero.
SPI = 2%/4% = 0.5 , Var.=-2% … Behind Schedule, but the delays are not on the CP
At middle of the project, Scheduled%=50%, Performance%=25% & TF = -20D out
of original duration 600D.
SPI = 25%/50% = 0.5 , Var.=-25% … Behind Schedule, but the delays on the CP
is not by a similar value (25%*600D=150D)
Another scenario, Scheduled%=50%, Performance%=55% & TF = -20D out of
original duration 600D.
SPI = 55%/50% = 1.1 , Var.=+5% … Ahead of Schedule, but there is a delay on
the CP while a high progress of non-critical
28
Delay Indicators
1- SPI
2- Variance
3- TF
4- CP logic
5- LOB
6- Trend analysis
0.9 = -30D
-5% = -15D
-50D
Hard logic
-60D
-20D
1.1 = +30D
+5% = +15D
-20D
Soft logic
N.A.
+5D/Similar Act.s
Case 01 (Mid.)
0.3 = -90D
-10% = -30D
-20D
Hard logic
-40D
-120D
Case 03 (Early)
Case 02 (Mid.)
29
Delay Analysis
11.2 Irrespective of which method of delay analysis is deployed, this is particularly relevant where
there is a significant risk that the remaining duration projections, logic links, calendars and constraints
within the baseline programme might produce anomalous results.
11. 7 Other methods, which may be reasonably deployed in particular circumstances having
considered the criteria in the choice of delay analysis technique, include: project wide retrospective as-
planned versus as-built analysis (i.e. not in windows), time chainage analysis, line of balance analysis,
resource curve analysis, and earned value analysis.
4.14 Although the Updated Programme should be the primary tool for guiding the CA in its
determination of an EOT, it should be used in conjunction with the contemporary evidence to ensure that
any resulting EOT is both reasonable and consistent with the factual circumstances … (common sense
and experience).
This highlights the importance of this logic process, but do not expect to perfect the logic at the
collapsed as-built method. However, this does not excuse the analyst from using a combination of
expert judgment, common sense, and extensive input from project personnel with first-hand
knowledge of the day-to-day events (witness).
References:
1- A GUIDE TO THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT BODY OF KNOWLEDGE
(PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition.
2- Practice Standard for EARNED VALUE MANAGEMENT – PMI Global
STANDARD.
3- EARNED VALUE Project Management - QUENWT. FILEMNING and JOEL M.
KOPPELMAN.
4- Skills & Knowledge of Cost Engineering – AACE International.
5- EARNED VALUE MANAGEMENT APM GUIDELINE FOR THE UK.
6- Earned Value Professional (EVP) Certification Study Guide– AACE International.
7- CMPC Course Material – Construction Management Planning & Control
(Prof.Planner).
8- Construction Project Scheduling and Control - Saleh Mubarak.
9- Project Management, Planning, and Control - Albert Lester.
10- Rita Mulcahy’s PMP Exam Prep. – Eighth edition.
11- Other books, practices/RP, posts and slides from internet.
Study & Practice
AACEI Certificate:
• EVP – Earned Value Professional
My Related Courses:
• Project Control using EVM
• Delay Analysis and Claim Submittal
• Progress Reporting and Presentation
31
Thank You
Don’t Hesitate to contact….
M.Maged
magedkom@gmail.com
mobile : 00966-580264968

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Performing against the wall - SPI after completion

  • 1. Performing Against the Wall SPI after Completion Date Prepared by: Mohamed Maged, MBA, PgDip, CCP, PMP
  • 2. • Project Control Manager in Projects and Programs Management Office. • B.Sc. Civil Engineering – Ain Shams University, Egypt. • PGDIP in Construction Law – Salford University, Manchester, UK. • Master of Business Administration (MBA) – UoPeople, US. • SCE-Consultant, Saudi Council of Engineers, SA. • CCP, Certified Cost Professional credential – AACE, US​. • PMP, Project Management Professional credential – PMI, US​. • Author of 50Qs- Construction Contracts Fundamentals & 50Qs- Scheduling Fundamentals. • PPM Conference Organizer in AUC 2014, 2015 & Online since 2017 – ProfPlanner Groups. • Practical experience more than 17 years in mega-projects in professions of cost estimation, planning, cost control, procurement, project control, contract management and delay analysis.
  • 3. Contents Definition of Control Performance M. Baseline Why Earned Value? Earned Schedule Total Float vs SPI Tricky or Misleading Delay Indicators
  • 5. 5 •What’s the Baseline Schedule? The approved version of the schedule, it’s a reference for progress reporting, to measure the delays, to analyze any EOT claim, and study time impact of any event or change. Baseline Schedule Scope Cost Time
  • 6. 6 PMB and Budget The integration of the technical scope, planning, scheduling, budgeting, and work authorization results in the Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB). Management Reserve (MR) is added to the PMB to reach the Contract Budget Base. The Contract Budget Base, plus any profit or fees, equals the contract price. Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB) reflects the approved baseline of the project, time phased and loaded to cost accounts into which the program is managed. The baseline can only be adjusted through an approved change, via the change management program.
  • 7. 7 Cost Baseline Planned Cash Flow. The approved version of the time- phased project budget, excluding any management reserves.
  • 8. 8 What is an updated schedule? It’s a living copy schedule reflecting the project performance data at a given data date regarding completed activities, in progress activities, change in the logic, actual cost, and resources usage. What is data date? The data date is the date as of which all progress on the project is reported. Schedule Update
  • 9. January 27, 2021 9 Outputs of Update Baseline Cash Flow: Time phased Budget Value of Planned Work Schedule Update: Up to date Actual Value of Performed Work & remaining
  • 10. January 27, 2021 10 ➢ Earned Value Management (EVM), started in 1800’s as a method for integrated project cost and schedule control, then in the 1960’s, it was redesigned by the U.S. Air Force and named the Cost/Schedule Planning and Control System. Earned Value History
  • 11. 11 Earned Value Management This’s Why Earned Value… EVM has been called “ ”
  • 12. January 27, 2021 12 Earned Value Analysis ➢ Earned Value (EV) Analysis: Earned Value analysis is an integrated cost- schedule approach to monitor and analyze the progress of a project. ➢ EV = Performance%*BAC
  • 13. January 27, 2021 13 Earned Value Dimensions ➢ When is EV going to be useless? If the WP = WS which happens for sure at the project completion if the scope is the same. BC-WS BC-WP AC-WP
  • 14. 14 Earned Value - Forecasting (earned) (actual) (budgeted) Forecasted cost variance (FCV) = CV ∕ % Complete Schedule variance in days (SV, days) = SV ($) ∕ Daily planned budget ; Daily planned budget = total budget / total duration Forecasted schedule variance (FSV) = SV ∕ %Complete
  • 15. 15 15 (earned value) (actual cost) (planned value) Cost baseline Cash-out SV= -1,067$ CV= +400$ Daily planned budget= 266.67 $ / day FSV= -15 Days FCV= +1500$ % Complete = 26.7% = - 4 days
  • 16. 16 What does happen at the Practical Completion? SPI = EV / PV = Performance% / Scheduled% Performance%= EV / BAC, Scheduled% = PV / BAC CPI = EV / AC Example: A project of BAC equals to $11M, has been completed with actual cost of $10M and delayed by 60D additional to the original duration of 600D. Solution: BAC = 11M, PV = 11M, AC = 10M, EV = 100%*11M CPI = EV / AC = 11M/10M = 1.1 … Below Budget (True) SPI = EV / PV = 11M/11M = 1.0 … On Schedule regardless any delay (False)
  • 17. 17 Up to day 600, all calculations look correct. Let’s calculate it: On day 600, PV = 11M, EV = 9M & AC = 8M. CPI = EV / AC = 9M/8M = 1.125 … Below Budget (True) SPI = EV / PV = 9M/11M = 0.82 … Behind Schedule (True) One month later, PV = 11M, EV = 10M & AC = 9M. CPI = EV / AC = 10M/9M = 1.11 … Below Budget (True) SPI = EV / PV = 10M/11M = 0.91 … Behind Schedule (Improving??!!) SPI vs CPI at the Contractual Completion Date
  • 18. January 27, 2021 18 Time-Based Measures: Earned Schedule SPI(time) = PT / AT AT: Actual Time of Work Performed (till Data date) (actual time expended to date (ATE) for a particular earned value) PT: Planned Time of Work Performed (originally planned duration (OD) for that earned value) PT AT
  • 19. January 27, 2021 19 Scope & Time Control Time Control: Schedule factors based on time. Forecast Time: EAC(t) = BAC(t) / SPI (t) Estimated Duration
  • 20. 20 Earned Schedule at Completion Assume the project completed at actual time (AT) of 3 years exceeded the planned duration (PT) of 2 years by one year more which is 50% duration increase, what will be the SPIcost vs Earned Schedule?? 1-Cost-based Calculation: SPI(cost) = EV/ PV=1 In case of the same scope, the earned value will equal to the planned value at the project completion, and any delay or duration variance will not show up like the project is on schedule in spite of 1 year (50%) delay. Vs 2-Time-based Calculation: Earned Schedule SPI(time) = PT/ AT= 0.67 < 1 Here the delay shows up, behind schedule , and the variance in the duration is expresses, not like the cost-based calculation results.
  • 21. 21 Earned Schedule Vs Time 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 SPI (Cost Vs Time Calculations) SPI ES Months On Schedule Ahead of Schedule Behind Schedule Behind Schedule Like On Schedule PV fixed at Planned Completion (PT) SPI(cost) = EV/ PV ES (time) = PT/ AT
  • 22. 22 Critical Path Method. estimate the minimum project duration and determine the flexibility on the logical network paths. Forward Pass. A critical path method technique for calculating the early start and early finish dates. Backward Pass. calculating the late start and late finish dates by working backward from the project end date. Total Float. The amount of time that a schedule activity can be delayed or extended from its early start date without delaying the project finish date or violating a schedule constraint. Schedule Total Float
  • 23. 23 Negative Float - The total number of days that the start or finish of an activity exceeds the time allowed. Negative float indicates a delay in the schedule. Out-of-Sequence Progress - Work completed for an activity before it is logically scheduled to occur. Schedule Update – Quick Checks
  • 24. January 27, 2021 24 Total Float Vs EVM Schedule Factors Misleading in Each: 1- Out of sequence can disturb the results of EVM schedule factors specially if the progress of critical path is different. 2- Availability of resources and resource usage in remaining works can affect the rationality of the total float specially if many paths overlapped in the remaining duration.
  • 25. 25 Some amount of knowledge brings more…… Earned Value Management Tricky or Misleading
  • 26. January 27, 2021 26 TF & SPI analysis
  • 27. 27 TF & SPI Examples At early stage of a project, Scheduled%=4%, Performance%=2% & TF = Zero. SPI = 2%/4% = 0.5 , Var.=-2% … Behind Schedule, but the delays are not on the CP At middle of the project, Scheduled%=50%, Performance%=25% & TF = -20D out of original duration 600D. SPI = 25%/50% = 0.5 , Var.=-25% … Behind Schedule, but the delays on the CP is not by a similar value (25%*600D=150D) Another scenario, Scheduled%=50%, Performance%=55% & TF = -20D out of original duration 600D. SPI = 55%/50% = 1.1 , Var.=+5% … Ahead of Schedule, but there is a delay on the CP while a high progress of non-critical
  • 28. 28 Delay Indicators 1- SPI 2- Variance 3- TF 4- CP logic 5- LOB 6- Trend analysis 0.9 = -30D -5% = -15D -50D Hard logic -60D -20D 1.1 = +30D +5% = +15D -20D Soft logic N.A. +5D/Similar Act.s Case 01 (Mid.) 0.3 = -90D -10% = -30D -20D Hard logic -40D -120D Case 03 (Early) Case 02 (Mid.)
  • 29. 29 Delay Analysis 11.2 Irrespective of which method of delay analysis is deployed, this is particularly relevant where there is a significant risk that the remaining duration projections, logic links, calendars and constraints within the baseline programme might produce anomalous results. 11. 7 Other methods, which may be reasonably deployed in particular circumstances having considered the criteria in the choice of delay analysis technique, include: project wide retrospective as- planned versus as-built analysis (i.e. not in windows), time chainage analysis, line of balance analysis, resource curve analysis, and earned value analysis. 4.14 Although the Updated Programme should be the primary tool for guiding the CA in its determination of an EOT, it should be used in conjunction with the contemporary evidence to ensure that any resulting EOT is both reasonable and consistent with the factual circumstances … (common sense and experience). This highlights the importance of this logic process, but do not expect to perfect the logic at the collapsed as-built method. However, this does not excuse the analyst from using a combination of expert judgment, common sense, and extensive input from project personnel with first-hand knowledge of the day-to-day events (witness).
  • 30. References: 1- A GUIDE TO THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT BODY OF KNOWLEDGE (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition. 2- Practice Standard for EARNED VALUE MANAGEMENT – PMI Global STANDARD. 3- EARNED VALUE Project Management - QUENWT. FILEMNING and JOEL M. KOPPELMAN. 4- Skills & Knowledge of Cost Engineering – AACE International. 5- EARNED VALUE MANAGEMENT APM GUIDELINE FOR THE UK. 6- Earned Value Professional (EVP) Certification Study Guide– AACE International. 7- CMPC Course Material – Construction Management Planning & Control (Prof.Planner). 8- Construction Project Scheduling and Control - Saleh Mubarak. 9- Project Management, Planning, and Control - Albert Lester. 10- Rita Mulcahy’s PMP Exam Prep. – Eighth edition. 11- Other books, practices/RP, posts and slides from internet.
  • 31. Study & Practice AACEI Certificate: • EVP – Earned Value Professional My Related Courses: • Project Control using EVM • Delay Analysis and Claim Submittal • Progress Reporting and Presentation 31
  • 32. Thank You Don’t Hesitate to contact…. M.Maged magedkom@gmail.com mobile : 00966-580264968