This document summarizes a presentation on trends and projections for Ethiopia's livestock sector between 2010 and 2050. It finds that while growing demand for livestock products creates opportunities for producers, climate change and other challenges threaten supply. Quantitative models project that under a "business as usual" scenario, meat and milk supply will exceed demand by 2030 but climate impacts introduce uncertainty. Timely actions are needed to improve productivity, develop markets, and manage resources to ensure the sector's resilience and growth.

1. Livestock in
Ethiopia:
Tailwinds and
Headwinds to
2050
Presentation to Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Livestock Systems (LSIL) Futures Foresight Component, Module I
(Quantitative Scenario Modelling), 4 January 2021.
Dolapo Enahoro, Sirak Bahta, Isabelle Baltenweck, and Greg
Kiker (with narration by Dolapo Enahoro)

2. Livestock in Ethiopia:
Tailwinds and Headwinds to 2050

3. HIGHLIGHTS
• Recent trends in demand for livestock-derived food
products expand opportunities to producers
• Headwinds affecting production and supply raise
concerns about the future of Ethiopia’s livestock
sector
• Quantitative foresight models help anticipate how
external factors will impact changes in the livestock
sector.

4. Abstract
Recent trends in the demand for livestock-derived food (LDF) products in Ethiopia project
the emergence of expanded economic opportunities for livestock producers in the
country (many of whom are smallholders). However, climate change, historical challenges
related to animal productivity, and poorly developed markets could limit the potential of
local farmers to take advantage of the unprecedented growth in LDF demand.
Quantitative foresight models are useful for analyzing the opposing future trends
(headwinds and tailwinds) driving the livestock demand and supply dynamics of countries
like Ethiopia, providing important perspective for agricultural and livestock sector
planning. This presentation summarizes the implications of long-term projections of
livestock demand and supply for short- to- medium term planning of the livestock sector
in Ethiopia. The work was completed by researchers at the International Livestock
Research Institute (ILRI) and the University of Florida under the Futures Foresight
Component of the Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Livestock Systems (LSIL).

5. Sector in
perspective
• Millions of urban & rural (80%)
households derive part of their
livelihoods from livestock
• Livestock is a major contributor of
animal protein, agricultural inputs
and cash income
• Accounts for about 10% of export
earnings
• Population, income growth, drive
demand for livestock food
products.

6. 0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2010 2030 2050
1,000
Persons
Human population in Ethiopia –
Estimated & Projected
Total population
• Human population in
Ethiopia to increase 24%
from 2010 to 2030
• Projected to grow another
28% to 2050
Population growth

7. • Human population in
Ethiopia to increase 24%
from 2010 to 2030
• Projected to grow another
28% to 2050
• Population in urban areas is
growing 5% annually
Urban growth
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2010 2030 2050
1,000
Persons
Human population in Ethiopia
– Estimated & Projected
Rural Urban
27%
38%
17%

8. Growth in population
& income,
urbanization; changing
preferences drive
higher demand for
livestock products
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010
2030
2050
Kg/pers/year
Meat Milk & Eggs, amount per person
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2010 2030 2050
1,000
pers
Rural Urban population
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2010 2030 2050
USD/pers/year
Income per capita
Demand

9. Photo: Charlie
Solorzano/Unsplash

10. Production
• Roughly 11.4 million
households raise livestock in
grazing, mixed and
specialized (<1%) systems
(84% cattle)
• Livestock productivity has
increased only slightly (dairy,
chicken), remained stagnant
(sheep/goats) or declined
(cattle) over several decades
• External factors such as
climate affect feed supply, a
key productivity constraint.

11. IMPACT
multi-country
multi-commodity
market model
Climate
modelling
Livestock
sector
dynamics
Nutrition
Yields
Prices
Trade
Production
Adapted from Rosegrant et al., 2014
Hydrology
modelling
Water
demand
trends
Crop
modelling
Macro-
economic
trends
The IMPACT Model System

12. IMPACT Model: Business-as-usual Scenario (BAU)
• Demand and supply
matched nearly 1:1 in 2010
• By 2030, meat supply is 8%
more than demand; milk
supply is 15% more
• In 2050, meat and milk
supply are nearly 20% more
than projected demand
• Plausible global changes in
2050 affect BAU
trajectories.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Meat Milk Meat Milk Meat Milk
2010 2030 2050
1,000
Metric
Tons
Projections of Meat and Milk demand & supply to 2050
Demand Production

13. 13
Climate and economic change impact bovine meat
exports
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8 F9 F10 F11 F12 F13 F14
1,000
MTs/year
Scenarios of Beef Demand and Production in 2050
Production Demand, under different future scenarios (F)
Export potential
National demand

14. 14
Climate and economic change impact milk
supply
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8 F9 F10 F11 F12 F13 F14
1,000
MTs/year
Scenarios of Milk Demand and Production in 2050
Production Demand, under different future scenarios (F)
Export potential
National Demand

15. 15
Climate and economic change impact poultry
supply
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8 F9 F10 F11 F12 F13 F14
1,000
MTs/year
Scenarios of Poultry Meat Demand & Production in 2050
Production Demand, under different future scenarios (F)
Import needs
National production
Photo: Chatnarin

16. • Beef and milk still major livestock product
types in 2050 but poultry consumption is
increasing in importance
• Feed biomass demand growing with demand
for beef; supply constrained under climate
change
• Production-demand ratios largely uncertain
• Global change impacts on local livestock
dynamics; scenarios of future change need be
understood.
IMPACT: Scenario results for Ethiopia

17. Building resilience for future scenarios
• For production to meet future demand for animal
protein and maintain export-focus of beef sector:
• massive investment needed in feed technology
• greater attention to natural resource management
• Policies to better manage trade-offs between national
aspirations for livestock exports, food security, farm
incomes and the environment, that arise from
changing (mainly) beef & poultry demand and
production.

18. Action
Timely actions taken today to manage feed
resources, improve productivity, and develop input
and output markets could assure resilience and
growth of the livestock sector. Investments in
infrastructure and services are key.

19. “It is cropping season… the children are home for school holidays. The family’s
breakfast includes bread, milk and honey…
Mother and daughter clean the modern animal barn.
The farmer transports improved seed, fertilizer and equipment using
his private car…
Farmer and son load improved green forage onto their tractor…
they purchase formulated concentrate feed from the village cooperative.
… Perhaps advances in technology could make (economic) change happen
more quickly for livestock keepers in Ethiopia”
A narrative of stakeholders’ vision of future success.
Workshop on participatory future scenarios, Ethiopia, June 2017.
(Courtesy: SAIRLA project)
This excerpt has been edited for context.

20. IMPACT Model: https://www.ifpri.org/project/ifpri-impact-model
Enahoro, D., Njiru, N., Thornton, P., Staal, S.S. 2019. A review of projections of demand and supply of livestock-
derived foods and the implications for livestock sector management in LSIL focus countries. CCAFS Working Paper
no. 262 Wageningen, the Netherlands: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
(CCAFS). Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org.
Shapiro, B.I., Gebru, G., Desta, S., Negassa, A., Nigussie, K., Aboset G. and Mechale. H. 2017. Ethiopia livestock sector
analysis: A 15-year livestock sector strategy. ILRI Project Report. Nairobi, Kenya: ILRI
Key References
Questions:
d.enahoro@cgiar.org
Unmarked photo credits: ILRI

21. Disclaimer
This work was funded in whole or part by the United States Agency for International Development
(USAID) Bureau for Food Security under Agreement # AID-OAA-L-15-00003 as part of Feed the
Future Innovation Lab for Livestock Systems. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or
recommendations expressed here are those of the authors alone.

22. www.feedthefuture.gov