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Learning from the 2010 flood disaster in
  Pakistan to promote DRR strategies


                     4th IDRC
                26-30 August 2012
               DAVOS, Switzerland



       Dr. Inam ur Rahim and Dr. Daniel Maselli
Impact of the worst floods in country history
• 21% of country land surface inundated (200-400 mm
  rainfall in 4 days)
• 20 million people directly affected
• 1970 people lost their lives
• 185,000 livestock died
• total economic loss of up to 43 billion USD
2010 flood
distribution
pattern
               Flood initiation area




Our focus
is on
mountain
regions
Causes
  Natural
  Heavy   monsoon rains during 4 days (27 – 30 July)
  ‘La   Niña’ phenomenon

  Anthropogenic
  Deforestation   at sub-alpine slopes
  Plantation   of unsuitable trees on hillsides
  Plantation   of unsuitable trees along river beds
  Encroachment     of cultivation on steep upland slopes
  Encroachments     of riverbeds for tourism infrastructure
Deforestation at sub-alpine slopes
Removal of native trees to
Clear land for crop encroachment
Grab public land in ambiguous tenure context
Secure logs for sale/construction and wood for fuel




Obstruction of water flow under bridges
Plantation of unsuitable trees on hillside
Plantation campaign with eucalyptus trees
Landless herders the main users of hillside




Consider campaign an excuse for their eviction
Don't let such campaign to succeed


 Social degradation and resource waistage
Plantation of unsuitable trees along river beds
replacement of native deep rooted but slow growing willow
trees with shallow rooted, rapidly growing poplar trees




increased and more rapid income
increased vulnerability during floods
obstruction of water flow under bridges
Encroachment of cultivation to steep alpine slopes
    Crop extension in Burhawai
500         (hectares)
400
300
200
100
  0



• cultivation extended to slopes up to 44⁰
• no anti-erosive measures (e.g. terracing)
• mono-cropping  rapid loss of soil fertility need to
  cultivate other virgin land on increasingly steeper slopes
Enhanced flood volume and viscosity
Encroachments of riverbeds for tourism
infrastructure
Rapidly increasing tourism infrastructure without building
regulatory mechanisms




Increased local income
Falling infrastructure obstruct floodsfrequent outbursts
Impacts at mid-lands (positive)




Deposition of fuel
wood and timber
Impacts at mid-lands (Negative)
Filled up river bed with stones/gravels
Riparian land erosion




                                       Food shortage
                       Permanent damage to infrastructure
Impact at lowlands (positive)




Deposited gravels/sand and timber for construction
 new opportunities for income

Deposited wood for fuel use
 Free energy for cooking and heating

Deposited fertile soil
 availability of more nutrients for crops
bumper crops obtained during 2011 and 2012
Impact at lowlands (negative)
• Submerged houses, roads and crop land
• Displaced people
• Drinking water/ food shortage
• Outbreak of water borne diseases
 Needed emergency support provision
Proposed DRR policy measures

 Delineate appropriate and clear boundaries
  between forest, grazing and crop land
 Develop legislations for appropriate use of the
   – Riparian land
   – Communal hillside
   – River bed
 Ensure implementation through appropriate
  legislative measures
Proposed DRR development measures

   Promotion and support for appropriate
      Sloping agriculture land management (SALT)
      Riparian areas management (willow trees)
      Hillside plantation (fodder trees)
      Pasture and rangeland improvement
   Through remuneration of local mountain
    population for securing ecosystem services
   Adopt multi-sectoral approaches to
    sustainable mountain development
Environment and Disaster Risk Reduction: Moving from Theory to Practice

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Environment and Disaster Risk Reduction: Moving from Theory to Practice

  • 1. Learning from the 2010 flood disaster in Pakistan to promote DRR strategies 4th IDRC 26-30 August 2012 DAVOS, Switzerland Dr. Inam ur Rahim and Dr. Daniel Maselli
  • 2. Impact of the worst floods in country history • 21% of country land surface inundated (200-400 mm rainfall in 4 days) • 20 million people directly affected • 1970 people lost their lives • 185,000 livestock died • total economic loss of up to 43 billion USD
  • 3. 2010 flood distribution pattern Flood initiation area Our focus is on mountain regions
  • 4. Causes Natural  Heavy monsoon rains during 4 days (27 – 30 July)  ‘La Niña’ phenomenon Anthropogenic  Deforestation at sub-alpine slopes  Plantation of unsuitable trees on hillsides  Plantation of unsuitable trees along river beds  Encroachment of cultivation on steep upland slopes  Encroachments of riverbeds for tourism infrastructure
  • 5. Deforestation at sub-alpine slopes Removal of native trees to Clear land for crop encroachment Grab public land in ambiguous tenure context Secure logs for sale/construction and wood for fuel Obstruction of water flow under bridges
  • 6. Plantation of unsuitable trees on hillside Plantation campaign with eucalyptus trees Landless herders the main users of hillside Consider campaign an excuse for their eviction Don't let such campaign to succeed  Social degradation and resource waistage
  • 7. Plantation of unsuitable trees along river beds replacement of native deep rooted but slow growing willow trees with shallow rooted, rapidly growing poplar trees increased and more rapid income increased vulnerability during floods obstruction of water flow under bridges
  • 8. Encroachment of cultivation to steep alpine slopes Crop extension in Burhawai 500 (hectares) 400 300 200 100 0 • cultivation extended to slopes up to 44⁰ • no anti-erosive measures (e.g. terracing) • mono-cropping  rapid loss of soil fertility need to cultivate other virgin land on increasingly steeper slopes Enhanced flood volume and viscosity
  • 9. Encroachments of riverbeds for tourism infrastructure Rapidly increasing tourism infrastructure without building regulatory mechanisms Increased local income Falling infrastructure obstruct floodsfrequent outbursts
  • 10. Impacts at mid-lands (positive) Deposition of fuel wood and timber
  • 11. Impacts at mid-lands (Negative) Filled up river bed with stones/gravels Riparian land erosion Food shortage Permanent damage to infrastructure
  • 12. Impact at lowlands (positive) Deposited gravels/sand and timber for construction  new opportunities for income Deposited wood for fuel use  Free energy for cooking and heating Deposited fertile soil  availability of more nutrients for crops bumper crops obtained during 2011 and 2012
  • 13. Impact at lowlands (negative) • Submerged houses, roads and crop land • Displaced people • Drinking water/ food shortage • Outbreak of water borne diseases  Needed emergency support provision
  • 14. Proposed DRR policy measures Delineate appropriate and clear boundaries between forest, grazing and crop land Develop legislations for appropriate use of the – Riparian land – Communal hillside – River bed Ensure implementation through appropriate legislative measures
  • 15. Proposed DRR development measures  Promotion and support for appropriate  Sloping agriculture land management (SALT)  Riparian areas management (willow trees)  Hillside plantation (fodder trees)  Pasture and rangeland improvement  Through remuneration of local mountain population for securing ecosystem services  Adopt multi-sectoral approaches to sustainable mountain development

Editor's Notes

  1. Let me remind you that thatThese were the worst floods in the recent history of the country with 200-400 mm rain falling in just 4 daysThese flood submerged 21% of the country land surface Affected 20 million people directly through the loss of lives, shelter or property. Two thousand people and 200 thousand livestock lost their lives. The economic impact of the flood totaled up to 43 billion USD
  2. Though the unprecedented monsoon rains that triggered the flood can be attributed to La Nina according to the anomaly map of NASA, but we argue that Certain land uses at the source of flood amplified the devastationWe intend to highlight such land uses as potential venues for reducing the future risks
  3. Another contributing factor is the removal of deep rooted Deodar and Chir-pine trees from the mountain slopes To clear new virgin lands for extending cultivation. To provide logs for constructionTo ensure possession rights of local population over the landBut at the cost of high exposure of sloping surfaces to erosion
  4. And cultivation now extends to more than 40 degrees on the fragile mountain slopes. And one can imagine if 200-400 mm precipitation fall in 4 days, what will happen to these sloped cultivation without proper terracing
  5. The second land use that contributed to the devastation is the replacement of relatively slowly growing, but deeply rooted Willow trees in the riparian upstream areas with rapidly growing but shallow rooted Poplar trees. This is due to increasing demand for the growing matches and sports industry as well as fuel. The Polar trees were readily uprooted during the flood and have contributed to the washing away of bridges
  6. And cultivation now extends to more than 40 degrees on the fragile mountain slopes. And one can imagine if 200-400 mm precipitation fall in 4 days, what will happen to these sloped cultivation without proper terracing
  7. Being touristic mountain valleys there is a huge mushrooming of hotels particularly those encroaching the stream banks. Stream bank hotels are the preferred hotel of the tourists coming from down the countrySuch hotels are contributing to the income of local populationTheir construction blocked the natural flow of waterWashed away hotels contributed to the volume of debris
  8. So all these land uses amplified the impact of the flood through 1- the increase in volume and viscosity of flood (all kind of suspended material)2- the destruction of infrastructure (USD 4 billion) (uprooted trees and suspended logs)3- facilitated the diversion of river courses (accumulated debris in the river bed) 4- facilitated submergence of the croplands/infrastructure (diverted river flow)
  9. Also different kind of debris is accumulated at different locations as the flood gradually slows down while reaching the plain. The gravels and boulders are left at the adjacent plains in the mountain valleys. The sand is deposited down the plains and is used in construction, while the fertile soils are deposited further down that contributed to bumper crop of wheat this summer (38% more wheat). At upland the impact is long term At downstream rapid possibility of recovery and even some benefits
  10. What are then the possible option coming out for reducing the risks1- On research front, dynamics of tenure pattern its socio-ecological implication we need more information for sound decision2- On support front we may use the option of in-kind payment through eco-system services in erecting gabion bunds and appropriate terracing along with renouncing sloped cropping in favor of herding3- On Capacity building front we need extending SALT and slope, irrigation, soil management4- On advocacy from we may use the option to advocate for clear boundaries among pastures, forests and agriculture land and appropriate use of reparian areas