This document discusses methods for estimating deforestation drivers, carbon emissions, and setting forest reference levels in Indonesia. It analyzes land cover maps and remote sensing data to identify deforestation areas and activities between 2000-2009. Carbon stocks are estimated using field data, biomass maps, and assigning average carbon densities to land cover types. Estimates of cumulative carbon emissions from land use change over this period range from 1.8 to 7.4 gigatons depending on the method. The document advocates for Indonesia to develop national forest reference levels using a stepwise approach combining socioeconomic data with estimates of deforestation rates and carbon stocks.

1. Deforestation drivers, carbon
emission estimate and setting
forest reference levels
Arief Wijaya1, Lou Verchot1, Martin Herold2, Arild
Angelsen3, Erika Romijn2 and John-Herbert
Ainembabazi3
1 Forest and Environment Programme, Center for International Forestry
Research (CIFOR), Bogor, Indonesia
2 Center for Geo-Information Science, Wageningen University, Wageningen,
The Netherlands
3 Department of Plants and Environmental Sciences, Norwegian University of
Life Sciences (UMB), Oslo, Norway
THINKING beyond the canopy

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Background
 CIFOR Global Comparative Study (GCS) on REDD+
 Component 3: MRV and reference levels
• Monitoring, reporting, verification (MRV) for REDD+
• Setting national reference emission levels (RELs)
• 6 case study countries: Indonesia, Vietnam, Tanzania,
Cameroon, Brazil, Peru

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Specific objectives
 To detect areas and activities (drivers) of deforestation
 To calculate carbon emissions and sequestration of
deforested and degraded regions
 To explore the concepts for developing RELs at national
and sub-national levels

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Stepwise approach for RELs
(Herold, et.al, 2011)

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Carbon biomass estimation approach
 Field data (e.g. National forest inventory)
 Direct remote sensing measurement
• Empirical models where RS data is calibrate to field estimates
(Baccini et al. 2004, 2008, Saatchi et al. 2007, Blackard et al.
2008)
 Stratify and Multiply (SM) method
• Assign an average biomass value to land cover/vegetation type
map (Asner et al. 2010)
 Combine and Assign approach
• Extension of SM, GIS and multi-layers information (Gibbs et al.
2007)
 Ecological Models approach
• RS data to parameterize the biomass model (Hurtt et al. 2004)

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Mosaic Landsat GLS Data
Source: USGS downloaded from ArcGIS server

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NDVI change 1990 - 2000
Source: USGS downloaded from ArcGIS server

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Direct remote sensing measurement
Biomass map based on study by Baccini et al. (2012) including LIDAR shots data obtained
during Biomass mapping training at BIG

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Available national biomass map

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Available national biomass map

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Stratify and Multiply Method
Landuse/cover classification of Indonesia for the years 2000, 2003, 2006 and 2009
Data source: LANDSAT satellite data (30 m resolution) (MOF, 2009)
No Classification
1 Primary Upland Forest
2 Secondary Upland Forest/Logged Forest
3 Primary Swamp Forest
4 Secondary Swamp Forest/Logged Area
5 Primary Mangrove Forest
6 Secondary Mangrove Forest/Logged
7 Crop Forest
8 Oil Palm and Estate Crops
9 Bushes/Shrubland
10 Swampy Bush
11 Savanna
12 Upland Farming
No Classification
13 Upland Farming Mixed with Bush
14 Rice field
15 Cultured Fisheries/Fishpond
16 Settlement/Developed Land
17 Transmigration
18 Open Land
19 Mining/mines
20 Water Body
21 Swamp
22 Cloud
23 Airport/Harbor

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Deforestation 2000-2009
Island
Area of deforestation (×1000 ha) Area of degradation (×1000 ha)
2000-2003 2003-2006 2006-2009 2000-2003 2003-2006 2006-2009
Sumatera 278.95 709.89 1063.01 0.00 5.02 101.66
Java 0.27 51.05 2.92 9.08 64.32 0.00
Bali & Nusa Tenggara 45.10 38.52 3.74 3.25 3.31 54.08
Kalimantan 367.24 963.60 705.48 825.38 304.11 74.57
Sulawesi 200.25 283.48 49.62 230.07 1655.13 52.95
Maluku 24.24 24.30 18.09 8.48 10.67 0.22
Papua 79.15 186.78 728.10 298.20 634.66 777.24
Total 995.20 2257.62 2570.96 1374.46 2677.22 1060.72
Annual deforestation
647 thousand ha/year
vs FRA FAO Report
(2010) 498 thousand
ha/year

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Deforestation based on forest type
Thousandhectare
Deforestation Forest degradation

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Deforestation drivers

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Carbon emission estimate
(Sugardiman, 2011 modified from the IPCC report)

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Carbon density by landcover type
Forest classes carbon (ton/ha) SD (ton/ha)
Primary dry forest (PF 2001) 179.9 16.9
Secondary dry/logged over forest (SF 2002) 173.7 15.2
Primary Swamp Forest (PSF 2005) 155.5 19.2
Secondary swamp forest(SSF 20051) 143.8 19.7
Primary mangrove forest (PMF 2004) 87.4 13.4
Secondary mangrove forest (SMF 20041) 62.6 8.9
Crop forest (CF 2006) 111.4 17.0
Non-forest classes (vegetated) carbon (ton/ha) SD (ton/ha)
Oil Palm and estate crops (PG 2010) 95.6 19.9
Bushes/Shrubland (B2007) 123.9 13.7
Swampy bush (SB 20071) 77.6 14.1
Savanna (S 3000) 63.1 11.3
Upland farming (UF 20091) 79.9 14.5
Upland farming mixed with bushes (Pc 20092) 115.2 17.2
Rice field (Sw 20093) 62.8 12.0

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Carbon stocks change 2000 - 2009
Based on Multiply and Stratify approach. The figure shows only C stocks above ground
excluding on peat soils.
Biomass map based on study by Saatchi (2011) and land cover map from the Ministry of
Forestry (2009)
2000

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Carbon stocks change 2000 - 2009
2009

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Carbon stocks change 2000 - 2009
2009

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Landcover and carbon density
Landcover 2000 Landcover 2009
(a) (b)
(c) (d)

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Why one map policy is important?
 Land cover/land use map
 Biomass/C stocks map

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Deforestation rates (official data MOF)

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Comparison of different studies
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
AnnualDeforestation(x1000ha)
Indonesia MOFOR Indonesia Hansen
Indonesia JRC Indonesia Mean

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Cumulative LUCF carbon emissions
Source
Cumulative Emission from
LUCF 2000 -2009
(in Gg CO2e)*
Methods Remarks
FAOStat 3,140,033
FRA country report
(EF = 138 ton C/ha)
Net forest conversion
MoE - Second National
Communication to UNFCCC
7,443,064 IPCC Guidelines 2006 Net forest conversion
Winrock International
(Harris, 2012)
3,468,150
Carbon Bookkeping model
(RS + Field)
Gross deforestation
MOF (official) 1,760,000
Approach 1 + NFI
(Tier 1 or 2)
Net forest conversion
(peat?) - carbon
emissions potential
MOF + Saatchi (CIFOR) 1,811,396
Approach 1 + Global EF
(Tier 1 or 2)
Net forest conversion
Mean 3,524,529
* does not include peat emissions and peat fire

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Annual LUCF Carbon emissions
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
AnnualCarbonEmissionsfromLUCF(inPgCO2e)
FAOStat
LUCF - Second NatCom MoE
MOF + Saatchi (CIFOR)

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Combining socio-economic data
Population density
Family ratio below poverty level
Agriculture family ratio

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Combined with forest transition curve?
(Angelsen, 2008)

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Concluding remarks
 Stepwise approach is useful to handle data uncertainty
and data quality variations in estimating RELs
 Carbon density estimated at different land cover types
can cause combined errors
 Indonesia has capability to implement Tier 3 (or 2.5??) of
the REL estimation (given the availability of reliable forest
inventory data and spatially explicit datasets)

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www.cifor.cgiar.org