Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD/REDD+) has the potential to help Pakistan mitigate climate change. Forests represent a significant carbon stock and sink, but Pakistan is losing about 2,700 hectares of forest per year through deforestation. If this deforestation could be fully avoided and compensated through REDD+, it could generate $94.74 million to $315.8 million annually for Pakistan depending on the price of carbon credits. However, there are also risks involved and Pakistan would need to improve its capacity and address drivers of deforestation before implementing a REDD+ program.

1. Reducing Emissions from Deforestation
and Forest Degradation (REDD/ REDD+)-
Potential for Pakistan
Saadullah Ayaz
Climate Change Coordinator
IUCN- Pakistan
Email: saad.ayaz@iucn.org
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

2. Forests and Climate Change
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

3. Forests and Climate Change
Forests represent the most significant terrestrial carbon stock
They contain:
– 77% of all carbon stored in vegetation
– 39% of all carbon stored in soils
(Eliasch Review )
Forests sequester and store more carbon (per hectare) than any
other type of land cover
Accounted for 17.4% of global GHG emission in 2004,
Equivalent to 49 GtCO2 eqv./ yr.
(IPCC- FAR, 2007)
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

4. Forests in UNFCCC Negotiations
REDD-plus negotiations leading up to Copenhagen are widely regarded as one of
more positive developments
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

5. Concept of REDD/ REDD+
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6. REDD
“Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation”
Attempts to recognize role of forests in climate change mitigation
– Forests are needed to achieve +2°C objective
– 15- 20% of the problem or 15- 20% of the solution?
Discussed in UNFCCC negotiations as part of ‘post 2012’ climate
regime
– Excluded from Clean Development Mechanism (KP- 2012)
– Allowed for Annex I countries and under Joint Implementation
– Not allowed EU Emissions Trading Scheme
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

7. Scope: Shift in thinking from
avoided deforestation to REDD+ (COP 15)
1. Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation
Protecting existing forests from immediate and/or medium term threats
2. Conservation:
Protecting existing forests, especially primary forests, including those
that face no immediate threat from deforestation and degradation but
could in future
3. Sustainable management of forests:
Safeguarding, and as appropriate, expanding existing carbon stocks in
both community and industrial working forests against long-term
decline
4. Enhancement of forest carbon stocks:
Not only afforestation and reforestation but broader restoration of
Forests
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

8. REDD/ REDD+
Readiness Initiatives
REDD+ readiness relates to the efforts a country is undertaking,
with the support of multilateral or bilateral initiatives,
to build its capacity to be ready for a REDD+ mechanism
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

9. UN-REDD Programme
Collaborative initiative (UN, FAO, UNDP) UNEP), launched in September
2008. Aims to assist developing countries prepare and implement national
REDD+ strategies
The Programme currently supports REDD+ readiness activities in nine pilot
countries (Bolivia, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Indonesia, Panama,
Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, United Republic of Tanzania, Viet Nam and
Zambia)
13 others to be observers to its Policy Board, and has given them access to
many other benefits of the Programme (networking, participation in regional
workshops and knowledge sharing, facilitated by the Programme’s interactive
online workspace). They are; Argentina, Ecuador, Cambodia, Costa Rica,
Kenya, Mexico, Nepal, Nigeria, Philippines, Republic of Congo, Solomon
Islands, Sri Lanka, Sudan
UN-REDD Programme’s Policy Board has approved a total of US$42.6 million
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

10. Activities under
UN-REDD Programme
help develop analyses and guidelines on issues including; measurement,
reporting and verification (MRV) of carbon emissions and flows, ensuring
that forests continue to provide multiple benefits for livelihoods and the
environment, and supporting the engagement of Indigenous Peoples and
Civil Society at all stages of the design and implementation of REDD+
strategies
also seeks to build consensus and knowledge about REDD+, to ensure a
REDD+ mechanism is included in a post-2012 climate change agreement
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

11. Forest Carbon Partnership Facility
Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) (World Bank) assists developing
countries in their efforts to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest
degradation--called REDD+--by providing value to standing forests
builds the capacity of developing countries in tropical and subtropical regions
to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and to tap into
any future system of positive incentives for REDD+
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

12. REDD/ REDD+ and Pakistan
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

13. Forest Resources of Pakistan
1. Forest Cover (hectares): 1,902,000
2. Forest Cover (as % of total land area): 2.5
3. Other wooded land (hectares): 1,389,000
4. Total land area (hectares): 79,610,000
5. Deforestation (hectares)= 2700/ yr
(does not includes forest degradation)
Data for 1990-2005 (FAO)
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14. Forest Trends in Pakistan
1990-2005 (FAO)
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15. Potential for REDD in Pakistan
(avoided deforestation)
Forest+ Annual forest Above- Forest CO2/ Aggregate
wooded land cover ground ha CO2 Potential REDD earnings
change biomass emissions
(Forest+ (Forest+
wooded wooded from Assuming $3/ Assuming $3/
land) land) deforestation tCO2Assuming tCO2Assuming
(Forest+ $10/ $10/
tCO294.74315.8 tCO294.74315.8
wooded land)
3.291 m ha. 0.208 m ha. 381 Mt 734 t -31.58 Assuming Assuming
Mt CO2 $3/ tCO2 $10/ tCO2
$94.74 m $315.8 m
Assuming 100% reduction in deforestation, fully compensated, using FAO carbon
estimates for above ground biomass.
data used for year 2005 and derived from the ‘Forest Resources Assessment’ and
the State of the ‘World's Forests’ published by the U.N. Food and Agriculture
Organization
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

16. REDD+ for Pakistan? A Complex Cycle
Total Registered project with CDM- EB (UNFCCC)= 2399 (as of June 2010)
CDM- AR Registered Projects= 8
REDD/ REDD+ = None
Is Pakistan prepared to take up the challenge??
UN Criteria to support REDD initiatives:
• An expressed willingness to work with the UN-REDD Programme
• Existing collaboration between the country, the UN partners and other relevant actors in
related areas that will help ensure rapid progress
• Emission avoidance potential
• Degree of REDD readiness potential
• Regional, biome and socio-economic representation
• Coordination with international REDD initiatives
• Potential to provide leadership in sub-regional sharing of experience
• Ability to contribute experiences to UNFCCC negotiations and development of REDD
mechanisms
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

17. Risks associated with Carbon business
1. Natural/ climatic risks: (disease, growth lower than prediction drought,
floods, damaging winds, land slides etc.)
2. Anthropogenic factors: encroachment, poaching, fire
3. Political risks: policy changes, unstable governments
4. Economic risks: exchange rates, interest rates, lower than expected CER
prices, changes in opportunity cost of land
5. Risks associated with CER purchaser (willing to pay upfront?)
6. Future of Kyoto??
7. Crediting Period (5 years for forestry)
8. Investment in forestry (is it viable business??)
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

18. 9. Management/ ownership issues (influence of black market/
feudalism)
10. Baseline data/ methodology development/ monitoring (huge
investments)- will it still be viable?
11. Leakages in carbon budget (if not forests, where shall we cater for
needs? Any alternates?)
12. Long- term involvement of stakes~ easy at it sounds?
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

19. Is it Practical for Pakistan?
Though the REDD policy has been finalized~ modalities and procedures yet
to be Clearfield
Not eligible for Kyoto first Commitment Period (2012)
REDD mechanism suitable for Pakistan….
- high rate of deforestation- an opportunity!
but can it be reduced…? If yes, how and how much??
- How much time we nee to be prepared??
- Is it cost effective??
- Is it socio- politically applicable? If yes, how??
- Administrative and technical capacities?
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

20. REDD/ REDD+ and IUCN
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

21. REDD+ and IUCN
REDD+ is important for IUCN
– Our mission: To influence, encourage and assist societies
throughout the world to conserve the integrity and diversity of nature
and to ensure that any use of natural resources is equitable and
ecologically sustainable
– Members’ decisions
IUCN’s work on REDD+
– Supporting the readiness phase – good forest governance
– Poverty – REDD+
– Forest Landscape Restoration – REDD+
– Advocacy and Technical Advice
– Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA)
(http://www.iucn.org/what/tpas/climate)
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

22. IUCN for REDD+ (Post COP 15)
IUCN’ Position Paper for 10th Session of AWG- LCA, May- June 2010, Bonn
IUCN urged Parties to reach an agreement on a REDD-plus mechanism
that recognizes that avoiding greenhouse gas emissions from
deforestation and forest degradation is a necessary component of
achieving deep cuts in all sources of anthropogenic emissions in order to
mitigate climate change
IUCN urged Parties to ensure that the full scope of REDD-plus is
respected and supported in the establishment of the mechanism, including
through the provision of financial resources and investment
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

23. Concluding….
REDD/ REDD-plus will only achieve results if it is able to be
adapted to the individual circumstances of countries
AND
if countries have the political will to adapt policies and
methods to meet the needs of REDD/ REDD-plus
implementation
The Forests Dialogue's initiative- IUCN CMS (2010)
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

24. IUCN- TV VIDEO:
“Nature-our trusted ally in climate change fight”
Duration 5 (mins), 18 (Secs.)
http://www.iucn.org/knowledge/multimedia/video/
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

25. Thanks
:
For more information, please contact:
Saadullah Ayaz
Climate Change Coordinator
IUCN Pakistan
Tel: +92 (51) 2271028- 30
IUCN, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE Email: saad.ayaz@iucn.org