The document provides a technical analysis of commodity markets. It summarizes trends in gold, silver, copper, and crude oil prices based on technical indicators. Gold and copper prices are expected to decline further to Rs. 29,200 and Rs. 310 levels respectively due to breakdown of support levels and resistance of momentum indicators. Meanwhile, silver and crude oil prices are anticipated to rise to Rs. 42,700 and Rs. 3,240 respectively, supported by support from trend lines and momentum indicators trading near oversold levels. Pivot price points are also provided for day trading various commodities.

1. Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Aaj Ka Trend
Technical View:
MCX Gold price has shown breakdown of its falling channel
pattern at 29890 levels on hourly chart. On the other hand,
prices have been trading below 100 HEMA on hourly chart. In
addition, COMEX Gold price has shown breakdown of its
horizontal trend line at $1260 levels. Moreover, Momentum
Indicator RSI has faced resistance of its falling trend line at 60
levels on hourly time frame. For now we expect prices should
move lower towards 29200 levels in the coming trading
sessions.
SEBI Registered - Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Bullions
MCX Gold Oct Hourly Chart CMP: 29638
MCX Gold (Dec) Trend: Bearish
Price potential: 29200 Reversal:29800
MCX Silver Dec Hourly Chart CMP: 41821
Technical View:
On 4 hourly chart, MCX Silver prices have been taking support
of its rising trend line at 41100 levels. On the other hand,
prices have been taking support of its 78.60% Fibonacci
retracement at 40516 levels on 4 hourly chart from its
previous down move of 49012 to 40516 levels. Moreover,
Momentum indicator RSI is trading near its 30 levels on 4
hourly basis. For now we expect prices to move higher
towards 42700 levels in few trading sessions.
MCX Silver (Dec) Trend: Bullish
Price potential: 42700 Reversal: 41200
Pivot levels for the Day
S1 S2 S3 Pivot R1 R2 R3
Gold 29502 29349 29084 29614 29767 29879 30144
Silver 41536 41252 40652 41852 42136 42452 43052
17th Oct’16

2. Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Technical View:
On hourly chart MCX Copper has given breakdown of its
rising trend line at 324 levels. MCX Copper price have been
trading in symmetrical pattern form past 1 year and 7
months. In addition, prices have been trading below its 100
DEMA, which suggest medium term remains weak.
Moreover, momentum indicator RSI has been trading below
60 levels on daily time frame. In addition, Momentum
indicator RSI is trading below 60 levels on hourly basis. For
now we expect prices to move lower towards 310 levels in
coming trading sessions.
SEBI Registered - Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
MCX Copper Nov hourly Chart CMP: 313.05
MCX Copper (Nov) Trend: Bearish
Price potential: 308 Reversal: 317
MCX Crude Oil Oct. Hourly Chart CMP: 3339
Technical View:
MCX Crude Oil prices have been facing resistance at 3446
levels on 4 hourly chart. On the other hand MCX Crude oil
has shown breakdown of its symmetrical triangle pattern at
3360 levels on hourly chart. Moreover, Momentum indicator
RSI has shown negative divergence on 4 hourly chart.
Furthermore, momentum indicator MACD has shown
negative crossover on hourly chart. 50 levels on hourly basis.
For now we expect prices to move lower towards 3250
levels in coming trading sessions.
MCX Crude Oil (Oct) Trend: Bearish
Price potential: 3240 Reversal: 3398
Pivot levels for the Day
S1 S2 S3 Pivot R1 R2 R3
Copper 311.4 309.8 305.3 314.3 315.9 318.8 323.3
Crude 3306 3274 3187 3361 3393 3448 3535
Base Metal
Energy
Aaj Ka Trend
17th Oct’16

3. Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual FundsSEBI Registered - Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Other Base Metals & Energy
S1 S2 S3 Pivot R1 R2 R3 Trend
Copper 311.4 309.8 305.3 314.3 315.9 318.8 323.3
Aluminum 110.5 109.8 107.8 111.7 112.4 113.7 115.6
Lead 132.2 131.4 129.6 133.2 134.0 135.0 136.8
Nickel 694.6 691.3 685.8 696.8 700.1 702.3 707.8
Zinc 149.3 148.1 146.0 150.3 151.5 152.4 154.6
Natural Gas 224.1 217.6 210.9 224.3 230.8 231.0 237.7
Fundamental News:
 U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell in October, hitting more than a one-year low and underlining
concern over the wider economy, according to a report published on Friday.
 The preliminary publication of the data for October from the University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center
showed that consumer sentiment unexpectedly declined to 87.9 from 91.2 in September. That was its lowest
reading since September 2015.
 Producer price inflation in the U.S. increased more than forecast in September, while core prices also rose
slightly more than expected, official data showed on Friday.
 In a report, the Commerce Department said that producer prices increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.3% last
month, better than the forecast for a 0.2% advance and after a flat reading in August.
 Core prices are viewed by the Federal Reserve as a better gauge of longer-term inflationary pressure because
they exclude the volatile food and energy categories. Furthermore, when producers pay more for goods, they
are more likely to pass price increases on to the consumer, so PPI could be considered a leading indicator of
inflation.
 Oil slipped below $52 a barrel on Friday, giving up an earlier gain, as abundant crude supplies outweighed
tighter U.S. fuel inventories and OPEC's plans to cut output.
 Brent crude reached a 2016 high near $54 on Monday, underpinned by OPEC's Sept. 28 deal to reduce oil
production, before weakening on rising U.S. crude stocks and as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries' own numbers showed output is still rising.
 U.S. crude inventories overall rose by 4.9 million barrels, the first increase in six weeks, the government's
Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday.
Aaj Ka Trend
17th Oct’16

4. Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual FundsSEBI Registered - Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
International Market
Commodity Closing Price
Gold 1251.60
Silver 14.25
Crude Oil 50.32
Brent Crude Oil 52.02
Natural Gas 3.28
COMEX/NYMEX/ICE ( Precious Metals & Energy) Currency & Commodity Index
Currency (Spot) Current Price
USD / INR 66.71
Dollar Index 98.08
EUR / USD 1.09
CRB Index* 189.46
Closing as on 14.10.16 *Closing as on 14.10.16
LME (Base Metals) ( $ per tones)
Commodity Closing Price
Copper 4675
Aluminum 1675
Zinc 2258
Lead 1998
Nickel 10485
SHFE (Base Metals) (Yuan per tones)
Commodity Closing Price
Copper 37200
Aluminum 12754
Zinc 17965
Lead 15110
Closing as on 14.10.16 Closing as on 14.10.16
LME INVENTORY DATA
Aaj Ka Trend
07-Oct-16 10-Oct-16 12-Oct-16 13-Oct-16 14-Oct-16
Aluminium -7478 -6700 -7301 -9952 -10000
Copper -4424 -4626 -1498 -1658 2925
Lead 26 -149 -677 -151 0
Nickel -277 548 -254 -446 612
Zinc -202 -152 -349 -526 -375
17th Oct’16

5. Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
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error in the information contained in this recommendation or any action taken on basis of this information. Technical analysis studies market psychology,
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Amit Pathania
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amit.pathania@choiceindia.com
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SEBI Registered - Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Aaj Ka Trend
17th Oct’16
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Research Advisor
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Amit Pathania
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DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd,
ou=Research Department,
email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.10.15 12:31:40 +05'30'