Introductory information presented at the 2018 Michigan Wetlands Association "Adapting Wetlands to Climate Change" workshop, hosted by NIACS.

1. Climate Changes in Michigan and
Wetland Vulnerability
Danielle Shannon -dshannon@mtu.edu
Todd Ontl - tontl@fs.fed.us
May 15, 2018
Michigan Wetlands Association

2. Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science
Climate
Carbon Regional multi-institutional partnership among:
Provides practical information,
resources, and technical assistance
related to forests and climate change.
American Forests

3. USDA Climate Hubs
www.climatehubs.oce.usda.gov
• Help agricultural and
natural resource
managers integrate
climate change
information into
planning, decision
making, and activities
• Provide: tools,
resources, outreach,
education
USDA agency wide climate change support network

4. Diverse Land Management Values
keweenawcommunityfoundation.org
hometownsource.comInstructables.com

5. Practical
Approaches
• Work with land managers
• Apply climate-lens to
project level plans
• Customize approaches for
adaptation
• Forests
• Urban forest
• Water Resources
• Tribal perspectives
• Wildlife
• Wetlands
• Carbon
Chippewa National Forest
forestadaptation.org/node/674

6. Practical Resources & Technical Assistance
• USDA Forest Service Climate
Change Resource Center
• USDA Climate Hub
• Forestadaptation.org
• AdaptationWorkbook.org
www.climatehubs.oce.usda.gov
www.fs.usda.gov/ccrc

7. Develop local examples
of adaptation
Forestadaptation.org/demos
+250
Projects
underway

8. Swanston et al. 2016 (2nd edition) www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760
1. DEFINE area of
interest,
management
objectives, etc.
2. ASSESS climate
change impacts &
vulnerabilities.
3. EVALUATE
management
objectives given
climate impacts.
4. IDENTIFY &
implement
adaptation
approaches.
5. MONITOR and
evaluate
effectiveness.
Vulnerability
Assessments
Adaptation
Strategies &
Approaches
Adaptation resources

9. • Self-guided, flexible
• Distance learning
courses
• Creates custom
adaptation plan
• Regional or topical
focus
AdaptationWorkbook.org
Wetland Adaptation
Planning & Practices
Fall 2019 Course!

10. In-person Workshops
Real-world projects
(Federal, State, Tribal, NGO, Private)
Using Adaptation Workbook

Structured process to
integrate climate
change considerations
into management.
Join us for a one- or two-day workshops
focused on wetland adaptation

11. Questions you might be asking…
1. How might climate change affect
the resources that I manage?
2. What management actions could
help prepare for those effects?

12. Road map
1. Climate changes
• General observed climate trends
• Potential climate impacts
2. Activity
Source: Michigan Natural Features Inventory

13. Regulate stream flows and water quality
Recharge groundwater
Why do we care about wetlands?
Provide habitat for plants and animals
Food production
Reduce flood and storm damage
Capture and store water
… in addition the many cultural and spiritual benefitsJunk et al 2012, Photo: MI DNR
Carbon storage

14. Variety of wetlands
14
… diversity based on soils, hydrology,
vegetation, topography + climate
Images: MI Natural Features Inventory
Landscape position + hydrologic sensitivity
(upper, lower elevation)
CoastalHeadwaters Forested
Bog
Formally known as “wetland”
Floodplain forest
Box TurtleEnglish Sundew
Host to rare plants, animals and invasive species
Non-native Phragmites

15. 15
transformingdrainage.org
Agricultural drainage (drain tiles)

16. Goals to reduce risks…
• Water quality
• Water quantity
• Sustain food
• Wildlife
• Native, threatened or endangered
species
• Infrastructure: culverts,
transportation networks
• Other..
Managing wetlands
Climate change becomes
an added considerations
Photos: USDA NRCS, NPS, CDOTJunk et al 2012

17. Trained to manage natural
resources & make decisions
• What does best where, and
when?
• Use best management
practices to reduce harm
Already weighing “What ifs?”
• Unintentional spread of
invasive species
• Reacting to weather
• Others!
Embracing Uncertainty
jsonline.com
mnfi.anr.msu.edu

18. How has the climate changed?
18

19. Contiguous US: 1986-2016
departure from 1901-1960
average
• Midwest: change in
Annual: 1.26°F
• Change in Annual avg.
Minimum Temp: 1.75°F
• Change in Annual avg.
Max. Temp: 0.77°F
USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I
https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/6/
Temperature change

20. Average change: 0.2°F/decade = 2.44 degrees
Winter avg: 0.3°F/decade = 3.66 degrees
NOAA Climate at a glance tool: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag
Temperature change - Michigan
Average Change:
1901 – 2018
2.4 0F
Winter temp:
1895 – 2018
3.60F

21. Source: W. Dorigo, via NCA 2014, https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/water
Surface Soil Moisture
Changes - 1988-2010
Soil moisture:
Drier than average in
some areas, moderate
drought during growing
seasons

22. 1986-2015 departure from 1901-1960
USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I
https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/7/, https://statesummaries.ncics.org/mi
Precipitation change
Winter Spring
Summer Fall
regional and
seasonal
differences in
precipitation
changes

23. 1901-2017
Average change: 0.43 in/decade = 4.98 in
Winter change: 0.08 in/decade = 0.928 in
NOAA Climate at a glance tool: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag
Precipitation change
Annual
precipitation
1901 – 2017
+4.98 inches

24. USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume Ihttps://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/7/
Extreme precipitation events have gotten:
42% BIGGER…. …and 53% MORE FREQUENT.
Observed percent change in very heavy precipitation 1958-2012
Michigan 1900-2014
Past decade –
The highest
frequency of 2-
inch rain events
in the historical
record
Precipitation change
Extreme rainfall:
More frequent very
large rain events

25. Other Observed Changes
Warmer Water/Reduced Ice Cover
 Lake Superior water temperature increase of 4.5 °F (1979-2006)
 71% reduction in Great Lakes ice cover (1973-2010)
 Duration of lake ice cover reduced by 1-2 per decade
Altered Soil Temperature and Frost
 12-24 fewer soil frost days since 1900
 Altered freeze-thaw cycles
Longer Growing Seasons
 Last spring freeze 5.6 days earlier
 First autumn freeze 6.5 days later Arrive 29 days earlier
Has leaves 11 more days
Assel 2009, Wang et al. 2011, Sinha et al. 2009, Kucharik et al. 2011

26. More information can be found at:
National Climate Assessment - Climate Science
Special Report
science2017.globalchange.gov
NIACS - Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessments
forestadaptation.org/vulnerability-assessment
NOAA Climate at a Glance tool (data)
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/

27. Future changes
Figure source: NOAA MI State Climate Summary, CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI
End of century

28. How might the climate change?
28

29. Altered seasonal precipitation
• More frequent, intense precipitation
• More rain, annually & seasonally
• Reduced snowpack, earlier melt,
shorter retention
• Flooding may intensify in many regions
even where total precip is projected to
decline
Increased temperatures
• More hot days, fewer cold nights
• Mild winters
• Longer heat waves, droughts intensify
Vapor pressure decreases
• Drier air
Shift expectations of
“normal seasons”
Prepare for changing rain,
snow, and runoff patterns
that will influence:
• Water quality
• Water quantity
• Groundwater
• Growing conditions
• Habitat quality
NCA 2014
Potential impacts affecting wetlands

30. Future climate: Temperature
High Certainty:
• Warmer
temperatures
• More hot days,
fewer cold nights
• More frequent &
longer heat waves
• Milder winters,
longer warm season
Average Annual Temp:
~ 5 - 9 0F
Source: USGCRP 2017 - https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/6/
Midwest:
Change of
9.44°F
Late century (2071-2099)
Avg 32 models
Range of scenarios low – high (RCP 4.5-8.5)

31. Opportunity:
Longer period for plant
growth
Challenge:
Potential risks from altered
seasonality
• Early bud break/loss
of cold hardening
• Frost damage during
spring freezing
• May advantage
some invasive plants
NCA 2014: https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/agriculture
Increase of 2-7+ weeks by 2100
Future climate: Growing seasons

32. High Certainty:
• More rainfall
annually & some
seasons
• Potential for more
frequent & intense
heavy rains
• Reduced snowpack,
earlier melting
More rain in winter and spring (10-20%)
4 - 5 inches more annually
NOAA technical report: https://statesummaries.ncics.org/mi, http://nelson.wisc.edu/ccr/resources/LCC/index.php
Future climate: Precipitation
Winter
Summer Fall
Spring
2070-2099 percent change relative to the 1976–2005 average. RCP8.5.
Stippling indicates that changes are assessed to be large compared to natural variations

33. Challenge:
Decreased snowpack
• Increased soil frost and
root damage in cold
temps
• Warmer soil temperatures
and altered processes
• Changing wildlife
dynamics (e.g. deer)
decreases in snow fall,
cover, and depth
60-80% Decrease in Snow Depth
Future climate: Shorter Winters = Less snow
http://nelson.wisc.edu/ccr/resources/LCC/index.php
2070-2099 End of Century – A2 scenario

34. High Certainty:
• More rainfall
annually & some
seasons
• Potential for more
frequent & intense
heavy rains
• Reduced snowpack,
earlier melting
NIACS, Climate Change and Adaptation: NE and Northern NY Forests - https://arcg.is/0eCuOv
10 – 60 fewer days with snowpack
Days
Snow residence time (# of days) late century (2080s)
High emissions RCP 8.5
Future climate: Shorter Winters = Less snow

35. Future climate: Shorter Winters = Less frozen
ground
Challenge:
• Limitations to
forest operations
& harvesting
http://nelson.wisc.edu/ccr/resources/LCC/index.php
Last spring freeze
3-4 weeks earlier
2070-2099 End of Century – A2 scenario

36. Future Climate: Shorter Winters = Less Snow, More rain
Challenge:
• Earlier spring peak
streamflow
• Potential increases in
flashiness and episodic
high flows
• Erosion washouts
• Potential declines in
summer seasonal stream
flow
10-15% More precipitation in winter

37. Future climate: Increases in extreme events
Heavy precipitation 2006–2100
USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I
https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/7/
• Sight increase in the very
lightest precipitation days
• Large increase in the
heaviest days
• Strong evidence that
increased water vapor
(from higher temps) is the
primary cause of the
increases
Frequency of regional extreme
precipitation events
Model avg (CMIP5 14-16 models)

38. Frequency & intensity of hourly heavy precip. will increase 1-2 times
Prein et al 2017. doi:10.1038/nclimate3168.
Winter (DJF) Summer (JJA)
Relative to January 2001 - 2013
Future climate: Increases in extreme events
Future increases in 99th% of hourly precipitation event intensities by 2100

39. Challenge:
 Heavy precipitation
 Flooding
 Ice storms
 Heat
waves/droughts
 Wind storms
 Hurricanes
Future “Events” are
very difficult to
predict
Photos: Linda Parker/ USFS
• Erosion
• Aquatic
ecosystems
• Infrastructure
• Human health
Future climate: Increases in extreme events

40. Challenge:
 Negatively affect
plants and animals
 +warming will increase
evaporation
 Add stress to limited
water resources
 Affect irrigation and
other water uses
Increase # of days between rain
by 1-6 days by 2100
(less than 0.01 inches of rain)
NCA 2014: https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/agriculture
Future climate: Consecutive dry days

41. So wait…we’re projected to have more
drought and increased precipitation?
Future climate: Moisture stress

42. Source: Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science and US Global Change Research Program
Warmer temperatures = vapor pressure deficit (VPD)
• More evaporation from soils & open water
• More transpiration from plants

43. Precipitation
Future climate: Moisture stress
Future predictions of
summer precipitation
are mixed.
Rain during the
growing season may
not change a lot.

44. Future predictions of
summer precipitation
are mixed.
Rain during the
growing season may
not change a lot. Water loss from soils
(evaporation)
Groundwater
recharge
Runoff
PrecipitationWater loss from trees
(transpiration)
Future climate: Moisture stress

45. Water loss from soils
(evaporation)
Groundwater
recharge
PrecipitationWater loss from trees
(transpiration)
Runoff
Future climate: Moisture stress
• Extreme events
increase runoff

46. • Extreme events
increase runoff
• Warmer
temperatures dry
air & soils
Result: Risk of
moisture stress &
drought
Water loss from soils
(evaporation)
Water loss from trees
(transpiration)
Groundwater
recharge
Runoff
Precipitation
Future climate: Moisture stress

47. Opportunity:
Increased habitat for
some species
Challenge: Decline of
northern/boreal
species
Plant and animal species will respond to changes in climate.
Ecosystems: Species change

48. Opportunity:
Increased habitat for
some species
Challenge: Decline of
northern/boreal
species 2070-2100 Low B1 2070-2100 High A1FI
Current Distribution (FIA)
Importance
Value
Low
High
Legend
all_spp_current
fia_802
1.000000
1.000001 - 4.000000
4.000001 - 6.000000
6.000001 - 9.000000
9.000001 - 11.000000
11.000001 - 14.000000
14.000001 - 23.000000
N. White Cedar
3 model Ensembles (GFDL, PCM, HadleyCM3) www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/tree/
Ecosystems: Species change

49. = species
X suitable
habitat
50% Reduction in Habitat:
Habitat reduced equally Best habitats remain
Some species: reduced habitat suitability in the future
Ecosystems: Species change
Changes will occur
slowly—not instant
dieback
How will species move to
occupy new habitats?
Critical factors:
• competition
• management
• disturbance

50. Interactions: Non-Native invasive Plants
Direct:
• Expanded ranges under
warmer conditions
• Increased competitiveness
from ability of some plants to
take advantage of elevated
CO2
Dukes et al. 2009, Rustad et al. 2011
Indirect:
Stress or disturbance from
other impacts can affect the
potential for invasion or success
Challenge: Increased
invasive & noxious plants

51. Interactions: Insects and Disease
Indirect: Stress from other
impacts increases susceptibility
Direct:
• Pests migrating northward
• Decreased probability of cold
lethal temperatures
• Accelerated lifecycles
Ayres and Lombardero 2000, Woods et al. 2005, Parmesan 2006, Dukes et al. 2009
Challenge: Increased forest insects & diseases
Top: bugwood.org/ Bottom: USFS

52. Challenge: could make
systems more susceptible to
existing or new stressors
Chronic stress
Disturbances
Invasive species
Insect pests
Forest diseases
Image: Bartlett Tree Experts
Drought
Injury
Pests and
Disease
Interactions make all the
difference

53. What does this mean for wetlands?
53

54. Change? Sites will respond differently
What characteristics drive the unique attributes
of this system?
54
Hydrologic sensitivity to change?
Hydrogeology, position & elevation, recharge potential, high & low flow recurrence
Other stressors & current challenges?
Land-uses that influence runoff, reduce infiltration & compact soils (urban, ag),
past management
Vegetation that thrives in … conditions?
Tolerance to disturbance, distribution across the landscape,
dispersal ability, genetic diversity, range limits
Type of system & location matters

55. Vulnerability
Potential
Impact
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive
Capacity
Fig 2.1
Vulnerability of wetlands….?

56. Vulnerability of wetlands….?
?
?
?? What traits can buffer
impacts?
• Species tolerant to a range
of conditions
• High diversity sites
• Topography that buffers
temperature increase
• Adapted to variable
precipitation (groundwater
contributions are high)

57. Vulnerability: Emergent Marsh
Impacts (moderate-neutral):
Fluctuating water levels & water quality
• More frequent, higher intensity storms are
likely to exacerbate sedimentation and
nutrient enrichment
May benefit: Cat-tail and others
• Invasive species may shift species
dominance to non-native cat-tail
Adaptive Capacity (high):
• Highly adapted and may benefit from
natural fluctuation.
• Changes to hydrology may also facilitate
the expansion into newly available habitat
Potential impacts: Moderate-Neutral
Adaptive Capacity: High
Vulnerability: Low-Moderately Low
57 www.wicci.wisc.edu/resources/Emergent_Marsh.pdf
Low emissions (PCM B1) – High emissions (GFDL A1Fi)

58. Vulnerability: S. Hardwood swamp
Impacts (neutral-negative):
Inundation (timing, duration) & loss of
canopy
• Altered hydrology, flashiness and repeated
inundation from large storms, drought,
nutrient loading
May benefit: Silver maple, Reed canary grass
• Loss of canopy species: Ash (EAB), Elm
(dutch elm disease)
Adaptive Capacity (Mod low):
• Species adapted to warmer temps (esp sites
further north).
• Small size and isolation of sites limits ability
to adapt.
• Sites w. GW, & other buffers to hydrologic
change may fare better
Potential impacts: Neutral-negative
Adaptive Capacity: Mod. Low- Low
Vulnerability: Moderately High-High
www.wicci.wisc.edu/resources/Southern_Hardwood_Swamp_CCVA.pdf

59. Vulnerability: Wet Prairie
Impacts (neutral-Mod. negative):
Groundwater levels influenced by
precipitation, drought, human uses
• Altered hydrology, drought, flooding leading to
nutrient loading, sedimentation, Longer
growing seasons
May benefit: Non-native invasive species, brush
Reed canary grass and glossy buckthorn
Adaptive Capacity (Moderate):
Maybe tolerant of a broad range of climatic
condition
• High Diversity, shifting within sites is possible
• Groundwater may buffer some change
• Most: Higher in the watershed, less impacted
by consequences of severe storms
• Least: surface water and shallow groundwater
aquifers are subject to flashy hydrology
Potential impacts: Neutral – Mod. negative
Adaptive Capacity: Moderate
Vulnerability: Moderate
https://www.wicci.wisc.edu/resources/Wet_Prairie_CCVA.pdf

60. Vulnerability assessments - forests
Climate Change Response Framework:
forestadaptation.org/vulnerability-assessment
Including lists of tree
species likely to
respond to climate
change based on
modeling -
“winners” “losers”
forestadaptation.org/
Northwoods_treehandouts

61. Dive deeper:
https://www.wicci.wisc.edu/plants-and-
natural-communities-working-group.php
High vulnerability
 Black Spruce Swamp
 Boreal rich fen
 Calcareous fen
 Central poor fen
 Coastal plain marsh
 Northern Wet-mesic
forest
 Sandy moist meadow
 Shore fen
 Southern Tamarack
swamp
Moderate-High vulnerability
 Bog relict
 Ephemeral pond
 Muskeg
 Poor Fen
 White Pine-Red
Maple Swamp
 N. Hardwood swamp
 S. Hardwood swamp
 N. sedge meadow
 S. sedge meadow
 Open bog
 Pattered Peatland
Low-Moderate vulnerability
 Alder thicket
 Emergent marsh
 Floodplain forest
 Shrub-carr
… to natural communities
Technical bulletins
- Detailed summary
- System drivers
- Key species
- Major threats
- References

62. More data…
Comparing known species
info to future projections
may give hints at future-
habitat.
• Growing degree days
• Plant hardiness zones
• Heat zones
• Cumulative drought
severity
www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/55870

63. What does this mean for your management?
How can we manage
for these changes
and
prepare systems to
cope with the range of
change that is ahead?
Thank you!
Danielle Shannon
dshannon@mtu.edu