Regional approaches to climate adaption in a research context
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The USDA Climate Hubs were formed to provide region-specific information to help communities and agricultural managers make climate-smart decisions. The hubs develop tools and resources like the Adaptation Workbook, AgBiz Logic, and Grass-Cast to help address challenges from increasing temperatures, changing precipitation, and more frequent drought. The Southwest Climate Hub also monitors current conditions like the exceptional drought affecting the four corners region and works with partners on solutions.
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Regional approaches to climate adaption in a research context
- 1. Resilient Lands, Resilient Communities REGIONAL APPROACHESTO CLIMATE ADAPTATION IN A RESEARCH CONTEXT: USDA CLIMATE HUB SOLUTIONS Emile Elias, PhD USDA – ARS Jornada Experimental Range USDA Southwest Climate Hub
- 2. Overview • What is the climate hub network? • Why was it formed? • Current challenges • Observed and projected changes • Regional challenges and solutions • Local perspective: exceptional drought in the four corners area
- 3. Observed annual temperature and precipitation https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series
- 5. Mission: Develop and deliver science-based, region-specific information and technologies to agricultural and natural resource managers, and communities, that enable climate-smart decision-making, and to provide assistance to implement those decisions. History Leadership and Staff One USDA Science-based Knowledge co-production Network benefits
- 6. The challenges Global population is expected to increase by roughly two billion people during the next thirty years (from 7.6 billion to 9.8 billion by 2050), increasing the challenges of: • Reducing hunger among the poor, • Meeting nutritional demands of a growing middle class, • Sustaining and improving environmental (water, air and soil) quality, • Maintaining biodiversity, • Coping with climate change through both adaptation and mitigation.
- 7. Response Framework and Decision Space Functional areas to support climate informed decisions • Tools and technology transfer • Research, syntheses and assessments • Outreach and education Spatial considerations: Field to regional scale Temporal considerations:
- 8. • Challenge: More and more information is becoming available on climate change, but… • Many land owners and managers are unsure how climate change might actually apply at the scales relevant to their work. • Solution:The AdaptationWorkbook provides users with a flexible and logical process to consider climate change information and design customized management actions that can help achieve their management objectives. https://adaptationworkbook.org/
- 10. AgBiz Logic • Challenge: Economic impacts of weather and climate on agricultural operations. • Solution:AgBiz Logic is a suite of economic, environmental and climate decision- support tools that enable producers to increase or assess profitability while assessing environmental trade- offs. https://agbizlogic.com/
- 11. Based on observed weather to date + seasonal weather forecasts… we expect grassland productivity in your county… to be X% higher or lower than your county’s 30-year average. Grass-cast Challenge: Ranchers must make herd management decisions in a complex setting with an uncertain weather future conditions. Solution:A spring forecast of season long grassland productivity http://grasscast.agsci.colostate.edu
- 12. “What if” May/Jun/Jul precipitation is… Above-Avg Average Below-Avg If May-Jul precip above normal If May-Jul precip near normal If May-Jul precip below normal May 1, 2018 Grass-Cast Maps http://grasscast.agsci.colostate.edu
- 13. Top cause of loss by county for aggregated indemnities (2001-2016) for the conterminous United States. AgRisk DataViewer https://swclimatehub.info/rma Challenge: Understanding spatial and temporal trends in weather and climate related risks in agricultural production. Solution:Analyzing and visualizing Risk ManagementAgency Indemnity payments by crop and cause of loss
- 14. Climate HubsTool Shed • Challenge: Many climate response tools available, but often difficult to find by region or sector. • Solution:The Southeast Climate Hub created a tool to find available tools. https://tools.serch.us/tbl_tools_list.php
- 15. Challenge: Responding to and rebuilding after extreme storms. Solutions:Compile and disseminate information about the state and federal programs that provide disaster assistance for farmers and landowners in order to support rural communities; Document the effects of Hurricanes Irma and Maria on agriculture, livestock, and forests by collecting photos and videos; Collaborate with agencies and non-governmental organizations currently evaluating damages to share information and assist with data analysis; Develop a comprehensive assessment of damages, losses, needs and opportunities for recovery within the agricultural and forestry sectors in Puerto Rico and the U.S.Virgin Islands. https://www.climatehubs.oce.usda.gov/hubs/caribbean
- 16. Projected end of century weighted CMIP5 multimodel average percent changes in near surface seasonal soil moisture under the higher scenario. Figure source: NOAA NCEI
- 17. Soil Health Days Challenge: projected decline in soil moisture related to temperature increase and other factors. Solution: increase stakeholder awareness of soil health importance and research activities via regional workshops for producers and extension professionals on soil health management practices Outcomes: ARS scientists present new research findings and demonstrate new technology (e.g., UAV). Implementation of management practices and stewardship strategies that protect beneficial biological, chemical, and physical soil properties
- 19. Challenge: Rainfall intensity is increasing in the Northeastern U.S. Over the past 15 years, Last Resort Farm has seen an increase heavy rains. Solution: Last Resort Farm partnered with many groups to reduce sediment leaving gullies. Outcome: an economic evaluation of various engineering solutions to cope with increased precipitation intensity in the Northeast. Net benefits to the farmer ($2,700 to $10,800) Net benefits to farmer and public ($87,900) Full case study: https://bit.ly/2krgrGk
- 21. Early Spring Impact Assessment Challenge: Weather and climate risks impact regional agricultural productivity Solution: MWCH monitored late winter/early spring warmth of 2017 (temp and NPN), in early spring the MWCH contacted CE staff in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana to share information for stakeholders. A freeze occurred in mid-March which was only impactful because of late winter warming and early dormancy break. Output: synthesized, timely reports of current and projected conditions and impacts
- 22. Challenge: Declines in forage quantity and rangeland health critically impact the livestock industry and the ability of California’s ranchers to maintain viability. Revenues and net incomes have declined across the sector, a trend exacerbated by severe drought. Solution:Vulnerability assessment to provide a foundation for developing tools and practices, including. • An overview of rangelands and ranching in California • Mid-century projections of water stress on rangeland plants • Anticipated biophysical changes to rangelands • Socioeconomic and policy factors affecting rangeland sustainability • Adaptation options for rangeland managers • Future research needs ClimateVulnerability Assessment of California Rangelands https://www.climatehubs.oce.usda.gov/hubs/california/topic/ climate-vulnerability-assessment-california-rangelands
- 23. Current Drought in the Southwest http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ Intermountain west drought early warning system
- 26. Solutions Community partnerships: • Malpai Borderlands Group • DiabloTrust Climate analogues: Growing conditions today mirror future climates … demonstrate(s) that cooperative goals can be met when individuals unite to solve problems… Herald[s] a new genre, one less focused on catastrophe than innovation…
- 28. Solutions ADAPTATIONWORKBOOK AGBIZ LOGIC RANGELANDVA TOOLSHED GRASS-CAST EARLY SPRING IMPACT GULLY EROSION PROJECT AGRISKVIEWER SOIL HEALTH DAYS EXTREME STORM RESPONSE
- 30. Increased frequency and duration of drought • Recent droughts and associated heat waves have reached record intensity in some regions of the United States; however, by geographical scale and duration, the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s remains the benchmark drought and extreme heat event in the historical record (very high confidence). • The southwestern United States may experience chronic future precipitation deficits, particularly in the spring. • Substantial reductions in western U.S. winter and spring snowpack are projected as the climate warms. Earlier spring melt and reduced snow water equivalent have been formally attributed to human-induced warming (high confidence) and will very likely be exacerbated as the climate continues to warm (very high confidence). Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible by the end of this century (very high confidence).
- 31. There have been marked changes in temperature extremes across the contiguous United States.The number of high temperature records set in the past two decades far exceeds the number of low temperature records. (Very high confidence)
- 32. NCA4: Climate Science Special Report • Global annually averaged surface air temperature has increased by about 1.8°F (1.0°C) over the last 115 years (1901–2016). This period is now the warmest in the history of modern civilization. • Thousands of studies conducted by researchers around the world have documented changes in surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; diminishing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; rising sea levels; ocean acidification; and increasing atmospheric water vapor. • Heavy rainfall is increasing in intensity and frequency across the United States and globally and is expected to continue to increase. The largest observed changes in the United States have occurred in the Northeast. • Heatwaves have become more frequent in the United States since the 1960s, while extreme cold temperatures and cold waves are less frequent. Available on-line at: <science2017.globalchange.gov>
- 33. NCA4: Climate Science Special Report • The incidence of large forest fires in the western United States and Alaska has increased since the early 1980s and is projected to further increase in those regions as the climate changes, with profound changes to regional ecosystems. • Annual trends toward earlier spring melt and reduced snowpack are already affecting water resources in the western United States and these trends are expected to continue. Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible before the end of this century. • Recent droughts and associated heat waves have reached record intensity in some regions of the United States; however, by geographical scale and duration, the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s remains the benchmark drought and extreme heat event in the historical record. (Very high confidence) • Future decreases in surface soil moisture from human activities over most of the United States are likely as the climate warms under the higher scenarios. (Medium confidence) Available on-line at: <science2017.globalchange.gov>
Editor's Notes
- Global annually averaged surface air temperature has increased by about 1.8°F (1.0°C) over the last 115 years (1901–2016). This period is now the warmest in the history of modern civilization. Thousands of studies conducted by researchers around the world have documented changes in surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; diminishing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; rising sea levels; ocean acidification; and increasing atmospheric water vapor. Heavy rainfall is increasing in intensity and frequency across the United States and globally and is expected to continue to increase. The largest observed changes in the United States have occurred in the Northeast. Heatwaves have become more frequent in the United States since the 1960s, while extreme cold temperatures and cold waves are less frequent. The incidence of large forest fires in the western United States and Alaska has increased since the early 1980s and is projected to further increase in those regions as the climate changes, with profound changes to regional ecosystems. Annual trends toward earlier spring melt and reduced snowpack are already affecting water resources in the western United States and these trends are expected to continue. Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible before the end of this century. Recent droughts and associated heat waves have reached record intensity in some regions of the United States; however, by geographical scale and duration, the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s remains the benchmark drought and extreme heat event in the historical record. (Very high confidence) Future decreases in surface soil moisture from human activities over most of the United States are likely as the climate warms under the higher scenarios. (Medium confidence)
- Compared to 1971-2000
- Ask you to take a moment and locate your region. Network of federal start-ups to learn from each other. History: formed in 2014 by Secretary V. – funding was provided by different USDA programs. Funding supports staffing, but that staffing still varies across the region. Establishment, mission, functional areas, ethos (data driven and interdisciplinary).
- 7.6 billion people as of this month; The world’s population is expected to increase by roughly two billion during the next thirty years, and humanity is now facing the monumental challenge of reducing hunger among the poor, meeting the nutritional demands of a growing middle class, and sustaining environmental quality, all in the context of an increasingly variable climate (Godfray et al 2010, Foley et al 2011, Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). Sustainable intensification – increasing production while minimizing or reversing the adverse impacts of agriculture – has emerged as a primary framework to meet this challenge (Godfray and Garnett 2014, Petersen and Snapp 2015, Rockström et al 2016).
- So what are we doing about it? Today I’m going to give you ten examples from each of the 10 climate hub regions re: solutions. One commonality is that what may be regional quickly becomes local. Tools and technology transfer Research and science synthesis: Outreach and education: There is a lot of overlap in these areas.
- The Climate Change Response Framework is an approach based in community to develop climate informed forest management and conservation, and the community provided the incentive, direct input, perspective, and testing for the workbook. Some of the original testers participated at considerable professional risk back in the day. So when I call it the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science (NIACS) Adaptation Workbook or USFS Adaptation Workbook it always makes me feel ungrateful. Define goals and objectives Assess climate impacts and vulnerabilities Evaluate objectives considering climate impacts Identify adaptation approaches and tactics for implementation Monitor effectiveness of implemented actions
- AgBiz Logic (ABL) is a suite of economic, financial, environmental and climate change decision-support tools that enable producers to increase or assess profitability while assessing environmental trade-offs. Enterprise, or cost and return budgets, are the foundation of ABL. Environment - Aspects include pesticide, herbicide, fertilizer, and energy use, as well as tillage and land management practices. Combined with other AgBiz Logic tools, users can compare environmental, economic and financial tradeoffs. Gabrielle Roesch-McNally groeschmcnally@fs.fed.us AgBizClimate, one of five AgBiz LogicTM modules, is a climate change decision tool. It provides climate change projections for weather conditions that are relevant to producers of specific agricultural commodities at a useful scale for making decisions on their operation. AgBizClimate generates net returns before and after estimating climate change effects on crop or livestock enterprises. AgBiz LogicTM collects, manages and optimizes farm level data as the basis for economic, financial, and climate decision-support tools. It enables agribusiness professionals to make sustainable choices that impact their bottom-line. AgBiz LogicTM gives producers access to the best available information about projected economic, financial AgBiz LogicTM, climate projections, and climate risks for their enterprises so they can then make informed investment decisions. This tool allows producers to measure potential impacts of climate change on future net returns to crop and livestock enterprises. Using AgBizClimate, farmers can see the impact of expected climate changes on their specific farm’s economic costs and returns. They can further see how changes in farm practices (management, technology changes, rotations, crop choices) and/or policy and price changes affect returns. This tool is a powerful means to summarize and help farmers understand their area’s available climate information. More importantly, it shows how climate change could impact the costs and returns they are likely to face over the next twenty to thirty years. It is a farm-level management decision support tool, but also and an assessment tool for researchers and government agencies. AgBizClimate can help determine how climate change and our responses may influence and impact regional agricultural sectors. https://www.climatehubs.oce.usda.gov/hubs/northwest/news/agbizclimate-farm-level-decision-tool-measuring-economic-impact-climate-change https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-61194-5_9 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X16306898
- Productivity is short-hand for pounds per acre of vegetation.
- Note: These are NOT actually the simulation results from this 3-prong “what-if” approach. They are images Dannele arbitrarily selected from other years to represent what a “wet”, “avg”, “dry” suite of Grass-Casts might look like. Note: A complication is that, in reality, CPC might assign different probabilities to diff counties. So it won’t be as easy as reporting 1 probability at the top of the map. Each county would need a pop-up reporting the probabilities for these three scenarios. This will be possible in our advanced website, but not the basic website we plan to roll out this spring.
- Searching ‘climate tools’ in google gave ~248,000 results. Climate adaptation tools ~41 million.
- Both in September of 2017. the data are not of a high enough quality to determine this with much confidence. Furthermore, it has been argued that within the period of highest data quality (since around 1980), the globally observed changes in the environment would not necessarily support a detectable trend in tropical cyclone intensity. That is, the trend signal has not yet had time to rise above the background variability of natural processes. Both theory and numerical modeling simulations (in general) indicate an increase in TC intensity in a warmer world, and the models generally show an increase in the number of very intense TCs.
- Stippling indicates that changes are assessed to be large compared to natural variations. Hashing indicates that changes are assessed to be small compared to natural variations. Blank = inconclusive.
- SP Hub ”Elevate” applicability/broaden exposure of ARS SY and technician work to stakeholder audiences
- These maps show the change in several metrics of extreme precipitation by NCA4 region, including (upper left) the maximum daily precipitation in consecutive 5-year blocks, (upper right) the amount of precipitation falling in daily events that exceed the 99th percentile of all non-zero precipitation days, (lower left) the number of 2-day events with a precipitation total exceeding the largest 2-day amount that is expected to occur, on average, only once every 5 years, as calculated over 1901–2016, and (lower right) the number of 2-day events with a precipitation total exceeding the largest 2-day amount that is expected to occur, on average, only once every 5 years, as calculated over 1958–2016. The numerical value is the percent change over the entire period, either 1901–2016 or 1958–2016. The percentages are first calculated for individual stations, then averaged over 2° latitude by 2° longitude grid boxes, and finally averaged over each NCA4 region. Note that Alaska and Hawai‘i are not included in the 1901–2016 maps owing to a lack of observations in the earlier part of the 20th century. (Figure source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI). Key Message 3: Rural roads, bridges, and community water supply and sanitation are increasingly being damaged by large rainfall events. (DO NOT QUOTE).
- True value: sharing this story with others to increase adoption of resilient practices.
- The Midwest Climate Hub was monitoring the late winter/early spring warmth in 2017. We were tracking temperatures and phenological maps with the National Phenology Network. In early March we reached out to various extension staff in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana, part of our region where tree fruits and other perennials (that could be damaged) were more common. Interactions continued with state extension staff over a several week period monitoring conditions and sharing information for extension staff to prepare and share with their stakeholders. A freeze occurred in mid-March (not a late freeze at all) which was really only impactful because of the late winter warming and early dormancy break.
- Drought conditions started forming in January. Impacts of the recent drought: Dry watering holes, wild horses Closing forests: people coming here to have field schools: AZ. Wildfire: incident web. Shortage sharing Communities losing all their water But, of course, it isn’t always about lack of water, there are issues related to excess heat, other COL, and those issues occur on a regional basis, so the hubs were established on a regional basis.
- 55,000 acres; 27 million dollars.
- Ed Zink, Waterfall Ranch. I felt we generally heard that people were going to operate at somewhere between 50% and 75% of normal production, while expenses were going to be higher than normal. They all said they would make it through some how. Well many folks probably won't, especially if we have another real bad drought year within the next 3 to 5 years.
- Nabhan: For this book he has visited indigenous and traditional farmers in the Gobi Desert, the Arabian Peninsula, the Sahara Desert, and Andalusia, as well as the Sonoran, Chihuahuan, and Painted deserts of North America, to learn firsthand their techniques and designs aimed at reducing heat and drought stress on orchards, fields, and dooryard gardens.
- Key Message 1: Reduced crop yields, intensifying wildfire on rangelands, depletion of surface water supplies, and acceleration of aquifer depletion are anticipated with increased frequency and duration of drought. DO NOT QUOTE. Agricultural drought - soil moisture drought. Meteorological drought - deficit in precipitation hydrological drought - runoff deficit socioeconomic drought - demand exceeds supply
- Figure ES.5: Observed changes in the occurrence of record-setting daily temperatures in the contiguous United States. Red bars indicate a year with more daily record highs than daily record lows, while blue bars indicate a year with more record lows than highs. The height of the bar indicates the ratio of record highs to lows (red) or of record lows to highs (blue). For example, a ratio of 2:1 for a blue bar means that there were twice as many record daily lows as daily record highs that year. (Figure source: NOAA/NCEI). From Figure 6.5 in Chapter 6. Key Message 2: Challenges to human, crop, and livestock health are increasing due to increased 7 frequency and intensity of temperature extremes. (DO NOT QUOTE)
- Global change research act of 1990. requires a report to congress every 4 years on the impacts of climate change.. The Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) is designed to be an authoritative assessment of the science of climate change, with a focus on the United States, to serve as the foundation for efforts to assess climate-related risks and inform decision-making about responses. As Volume I of NCA4, CSSR serves several purposes, including providing 1) an updated detailed analysis of the findings of how climate change is affecting weather and climate across the United States; 2) an executive summary and other CSSR materials that provide the basis for the discussion of climate science found in the second volume of the NCA4; and 3) foundational information and projections for climate change, including extremes, to improve “end-to-end” consistency in sectoral, regional, and resilience analyses within the second volume. CSSR integrates and evaluates the findings on climate science and discusses the uncertainties associated with these findings. It analyzes current trends in climate change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends to the end of this century. As an assessment and analysis of the science, this report provides important input to the development of other parts of NCA4,
- A few things in the report I will not discuss, due to limited time, such as the increase in global ocean heat, global mean sea level rise, coastal flooding, global and regional ocean acidification, ocean oxygen, Alaska and the arctic (2x as fast as global average temperatures, very high confidence). Choices made today will determine the magnitude of climate change risks beyond the next few decades. (Ch. 4, 14)