Adapting Forested Watersheds to Climate Change - Approaches for Action (Midwest)
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Danielle Shannon (Michigan Technological University and NIACS), presented at the Adapting Forested Watersheds to Climate Change Workshop, at The Waters, Minocqua, WI on March 15-16, 2017. The workshop was hosted by the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science (NIACS), USDA Climate Hubs, and the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI). Details at www.forestadaptation.org/water
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Adapting Forested Watersheds to Climate Change - Approaches for Action (Midwest)
- 1. ADAPTING FORESTS TO CLIMATE CHANGE www.forestadaptation.org Approaches for Action Danielle Shannon March 15, 2017
- 2. Adaptation in the real world What does adaptation look like in forested watershed management? Stay tuned! •Dale Higgins •Dean Paron •Joe Shannon …but first what is adaptation?
- 3. Our goal: Develop local examples of adaptation Forestadaptation.org/demos +200 Projects underway
- 4. Climate Responses •Mitigation: Actions that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance carbon sinks. •Adaptation: Actions to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against climate change effects. www.nca2014.gov IPCC 2007
- 5. Adaptation is the adjustment of systems in response to climate change. Parry et al. 2007, SCBD 2009, Groves et al. 2010 Taking action to prepare for anticipated changes and risks, and responding to effects.
- 6. But how…? Assess future risk and vulnerabilities Design a response in line with your management goals and needs Keep in mind…. • There is no single “right” way to respond to climate change • Activities can build upon and complement sustainable management and conservation actions
- 8. Intentionality • Explicitly consider and address climate change • Sure we might get lucky… • Intentionally assessing risk and vulnerabilities makes our plans more robust!
- 9. Questions What do you value? How much risk are you willing to tolerate?
- 10. Manage for Persistence: Ecosystems are still recognizable as being the same system (character) Resistance Transition (Response) Resilience Manage for Change: Ecosystems have fundamentally changed to something different Adaptation Concepts Reduce impacts / Maintain current conditions Forward-looking/Promote change
- 11. Improve the defenses of the ecosystem against effects of change. • Short-term • High-value Millar et al. 2007 Photo: USFS Resistance (persistence)
- 12. Desired Future Condition TIME Climate Change Trajectory ? Resistance (persistence)
- 13. Desired Future Condition TIME Climate Change Trajectory ? Increasing resources needed to maintain desired conditions Higher risk Resistance (persistence)
- 14. Accommodate some degree of change or disruption, but be able to return to a similar condition after disturbance. Holling 1973, Millar et al. 2007 Photo: USFS • Thinning stands to improve overall health & vigor • Management of vegetation following disturbance Resilience (persistence)
- 15. TIME Climate Change Trajectory ? Increasing resources needed to maintain desired conditions Higher risk Resilience (persistence)
- 16. Intentionally encourage change, help ecosystems respond in a targeted fashion Millar et al. 2007 • Foster well-adapted native species • Managed relocation/assisted migration • Increased connectivity for migration • Maintain refugia Transition (change)
- 18. • Restoring ecosystem function • Returning an altered system to its previous state with the intention of: • Reestablishing the structure • Productivity • Diversity …that we think was originally present in the system, in a past climate Restoration
- 19. • Can be complementary to adaptation if: • Helps the system better cope with climate changes. Restoration • Restoring can put a system at a higher risk if the restored state has greater vulnerability to climate change.
- 21. Adaptation actions Adaptation actions may not look that different from current management actions, especially in the near term. Same actions– climate change just makes them that much more important Small “tweaks” that improve effectiveness New & different actions, even some that seem wild & crazy
- 22. Forest Adaptation Resources www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543 and www.AdaptationWorkbook.org • Practical process to intentionally consider climate & customize adaptation actions • Designed to be flexible – for diverse goals, and values • Does not make recommendations • New online version! Swanston and Janowiak 2016; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760 AdaptationWorkbook.org
- 23. Forest Adaptation Resources Adaptation Workbook Strategies & Approaches Menu of adaptation actions Structured process to integrate climate change considerations into management. • Workbook approachSwanston and Janowiak 2016; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760 Also online: AdaptationWorkbook.org
- 24. A structured process to integrate climate change considerations into management planning and activities 1. DEFINE area of interest, management objectives, and time frames. 2. ASSESS climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for the area of interest. 3. EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities. 4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation approaches and tactics. 5. MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness of implemented actions. Vulnerability assessments, scientific literature, and other resources Menu of Adaptation Strategies & Approaches Adaptation Workbook Swanston and Janowiak 2016; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760
- 25. Menu of Adaptation Resources: Forested Watersheds 1: Maintain and enhance hydrologic processes 2: Protect water quality 3: Protect and restore forests and vegetative cover 4: Facilitate forest community adjustments through tree species transitions 5: Accommodate altered hydrologic processes 6: Design and modify infrastructure to match future conditions Draft v1 (2017) Strategies
- 26. Translating concepts to actions Adaptation Concepts = 3 • Resistance, Resilience, Transition Strategies = 6 • Regionally specific conditions Approaches = 30 • Actions for a specific ecosystem or forest type Tactics = infinite • Prescriptions for local conditions and mgmt. objectives CONCEPT ACTION STRATEGIES APROACHES TACTICS Menu of Adaptation Resources: Forested Watersheds
- 27. 1. Maintain and enhance hydrologic processes CONCEPT ACTION STRATEGIES APROACHES TACTICS Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
- 28. 1.1: Maintain or enhance infiltration and water storage capacity of forest soils CONCEPT ACTION STRATEGIES APROACHES TACTICS Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
- 29. CONCEPT ACTION STRATEGIES APROACHES TACTICS Alter the timing of forest operations to minimize disruption (e.g. limiting operation to frozen soil conditions) Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
- 30. CONCEPT ACTION STRATEGIES APROACHES TACTICS Plant future- adapted oak, pine and other species on south- facing slopes Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
- 31. 4.1 Favor or restore native species that are expected to be adapted to future conditions. CONCEPT ACTION STRATEGIES APROACHES TACTICS Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
- 32. 4. Facilitate community adjustments through species transitions CONCEPT ACTION STRATEGIES APROACHES TACTICS Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
- 33. Adaptation Strategies and Approaches CONCEPT ACTION STRATEGIES APROACHES TACTICS Concept: Transition (facilitate change)
- 34. Why it’s important: Helps connect the dots from broad concepts to specific actions for implementation. Management Goals & Objectives Climate Change Impacts Intent of Adaptation (Option) Make Idea Specific (Strategy, Approach) Action to Implement (Tactic) Challenges & Opportunities Responding to Climate Change
- 35. A customized approach Select approaches most applicable to your management goals.
- 36. Goal: Protect soil and water resources Impacts of concern: •Altered precipitation •Extreme precipitation •Flooding
- 37. Approaches related to BMPs for Water Quality • Maintain infiltration and water storage capacity of soils (Approach 1.1) • Protect hydrologic function of forested wetlands (Approach 1.5) • Reduce soil erosion and sediment loading (Approach 2.3) • Reduce overland flows (Approach 5.5) • Reroute or minimize road infrastructure on the landscape (Approach 6.2) Goal: Protect soil and water resources
- 38. Adjust Management to Changing Conditions • Protect forested wetland function (1.5) • Moderate stream temperature increases (2.1) • Protect sensitive and unique habitats (3.4) • Adapt forests to new or changing water levels (4.6) Goal: Promote Healthy Forest Wetlands & Riparian areas Impacts addressed: • Warmer air and water temperatures • Altered precipitation • Altered streamflows • Extreme events • Changes in tree species distribution • Enhanced forest stressors
- 39. Adapt Forests to Changing Conditions Favor native species expected to be adapted to future conditions (4.1) • Encourage new mixes of native species. (4.2) • Disfavor species that are maladapted. (4.3) • Introduce species that are expected to be adapted to future conditions (4.5) Goal: Promote Healthy Forests Impacts addressed: • Warmer temperatures • Altered precipitation • Changes in tree species distribution • Enhanced forest stressors
- 40. Improved Road Crossings • Restore hydrologic connectivity (1.2) • Moderate stream temperature increases (2.1) • Restore stream channel form and function – mimics natural channel design (1.3) • Reduce negative effects of flooding and extreme high flows (5.4) • Stronger and more robust infrastructure (6.1) Goal: Restore Channel Connectivity Impacts addressed: • Warmer air and water temperatures • Altered precipitation • Extreme precipitation • Flooding • Altered streamflows
- 41. Protect & Restore Veg. Cover • Maintain forest and vegetative cover in uplands, wetlands, and riparian areas (3.1) • Revegetate areas impacted by disturbance (3.2) • Prevent invasive species establishment (3.3) • Enhance species and structural diversity in forests (3.5) Goal: Maintain Forest and Vegetative Cover Impacts addressed: • Warmer temperatures • Altered precipitation • Altered streamflows • Extreme events • Changes in tree species distribution • Enhanced forest stressors
- 42. Next Steps Adaptation Strategies and Approaches for Forested Watersheds! Develop menu Literature review Testing workshop – Midwest (Mar 15-16) Testing workshop – Northeast (Apr 4-5) Additional comments Peer review & publication Help Support Managers Create more Adaptation Demonstrations Training workshops Details at: www.forestadaptation.org/water
- 43. What can you do…? • Prioritize actions based on site vulnerability to enhance the ability to cope • Reduce risks and plan ahead • There is no single “right” way to respond • Emphasize actions that maintain flexibility • ACT! The time is now
Editor's Notes
- What actions can we take to enhance the ability of an ecosystem to cope with change and still meeting our management goals? This morning we discussed climate change and the range of potential impacts we may see on our watersheds (forests, hydrology, climate). In this talk we will begin thinking about how to manage for that uncertainty now to managing our forests to cope with a range of potential impacts and adjusting our forest management to create future opportunities and options. ___ This morning we covered projected changes in climate and climate change and impacts on forests and hydrology. Although we recognize a great deal of uncertainty surrounding future projections, now is an important time to start managing that uncertainty. In other words, how can we manage our forests to cope with a range of potential impacts, and how can we adjust our management to create future opportunities while also dealing with challenges related to climate change?
- In this talk – review broad adaptation actions Leave it to the managers who will present after this presentation to highlight the various ways folks are currently thinking about adaptation actions, planning and integrating climate change into management, and active implementation
- Before we get too far – points out : Different concepts, different pieces of the puzzle – today we are talking about adaptation
- Adaptation means taking action to prepare for anticipated changes and respond to effects. Adaptation means taking action (prepare and respond)
- Preparing systems for climate change involves assessing information about the vulnerabilities and risks that come with climate change and then choosing a course of action that best fits the management goals and the needs of the system. There is no single “right” way to respond to climate change, just as there is no single right way to manage resources. But there are some win-win strategies that will complement the sustainable management, conservation, and restoration practices that are currently on the ground. For managers who are used to dealing with multiple threats to forest health and productivity, much of what you’re already doing also makes good sense as a response to climate change ________________ Adaptation includes a wide variety of actions that complement the sustainable management, conservation, and restoration of forests and help to maintain ecosystem integrity and environmental benefits.
- Some things that we are doing will help systems adapt to climate change even though CC wasn’t an initial consideration in the mgmt. plan How do these actions already address some aspects of a changing climate? Are there other actions we may want to consider?
- Explicitly considering and addressing CC effects that could impact our MGMT goals Yes we might get lucky – but don’t bank on it - Some things we are doing now will help systems adapt to changing conditions… even if we did not plan for it (this was an unintended consequence of management) Intentionality makes our plans more robust! Sets up options for future managers
- So before we talk about potential actions, you must first come to grips with these two questions – the answers to these questions will indicate what path you will tend towards in your management
- There are three different options that are helpful for thinking about climate change adaptation: resistance, resilience, and transition. Resistance and resilience emphasize management for the persistence of existing systems, and transition promotes system change. These actions reside as a continuum of choice in how to respond Know where you are going – general direction you are heading – at the intersection – going left, straight or right Resistance - Reduce impacts/ Maintain current conditions Resilience – Transition - Forward-looking/ Promote change – Innovation!
- Resistance actions improve the defenses of a system against anticipated changes, or directly defend the system against disturbance so that the system remains relatively unchanged. This option could be most useful in high-value systems that may not be able to cope with disturbances and pressures from a changing climate. These systems may be economically, socially, or culturally valuable, or protected for specific values or characteristics. Building the seawall, adding a few feet to the levy Installing fuelbreaks Preventing the spread of invasive species, pests, diseases
- The resistance option broadly tries to put resources into maintaining what is currently on the landscape. Over time, this could get more and more costly, so this is best as a short-term strategy or for things of high cultural, economic, ecological value. Makes more sense if the CC trajectory is already close to BAU….makes less sense if CC trajectory will be more of a departure Accepting more risk over time with this option. Protective bubble Essentially stay the same regardless of CC pressures Comes with risk Investment into maintaining the bubble are likely to increase as conditions change Resisting climate pressures over the long term – setting the system up to fair if some critical threshold is reached A large disturbance could cause significantly alter the system, causing collapse The disturbed system may grow back differently, be less productive, or may not provide the same values as the original system.
- Thinning stands to improve overall health & vigor Management of vegetation following disturbance Resilience actions enhance the ability of a system to return to prior conditions after a disturbance. Although some degree of change may occur, the intent is for the system to return to a state similar to what it was before the disturbance. Good for systems that can tolerate a wide range of environmental conditions and disturbance (those with high adaptive capacity). Resilience is effective until the degree of change exceeds the ability of the system to cope – resulting in transition to another state
- Increase the capacity of the system to absorb changes Recover from disturbances May undergo minor changes with CC But the system will maintain character into the future The system may not “look EXACTLY” like the Original but it will be similar in composition and function -- Carries less risk – but still carries risk if system may not be able to maintain the same character in a different climate. ------ We may choose resilience as the adaptation option for a system when we want to increase the capacity of the system to absorb changes and recover from any disturbances. The system may undergo relatively minor changes as climate pressures increase, but a resilient system will maintain its character into the future. Even though the future system may not look exactly like the original, it will be similar in composition and function. Resilience carries less risk than resistance because we manage the system to cope with some amount of climate disturbance. Risk still increases over time because the system may not be able to maintain the same character in a different climate. ____ In this option, we allow disturbances to occur, but we want the system to eventually return to its original condition or at least resemble current conditions. Lots of sustainable forest MGMT already falls under this umbrella. BUT – this option still incurs more and more risk through time, particularly if CC trends are heading in a diff direction.
- Favoring future-adapted NATIVE species Using seed sources from hotter, drier places? Assisted migration Increase connectivity for migration corridors Manage refugia Restoring former floodplain wet/marsh areas for storage of water – changing the hydrology of the system to act in a different way causes an ecological transition – a forested area is now a persistently wet marsh (different veg)
- Facilitate changes that we believe will make the system better suited to future conditions. - in response, or in advance We expect that as climate pressures on the system increase and the system may change. By anticipating likely effects on the system, we can shape our response to maintain desired functions and values even as the system is altered. In the long term, transition may carry less risk because we are actively considering how a system may change and taking action to promote those changes. Caveat: tradeoff between long term change and upfront risk – in some cases there maybe significant upfront risks Still a risky proposition – less risk over time, although there maybe upfront risks that are higher than RR strategies Maybe appropriate in ecosystems assessed as highly vulnerable across a range of plausible future climates – such that risk with RR maybe too great Transition actions are typically designed for long-term effectiveness – Phased into broader MGMT plans that have a short term focus on resilience More effort upfront? Gradual changes to increase options? Making an intentional, directed change. The end result forest still provides values that are important to you.
- Most often thought of as returning a system to a previous state in order to re-establish the structure and diversity that we think was there (historic) Complementary: restoring previously drained wetlands – restoring function, will help the system cope with increased rain events (as storage), and help the system moderate warmer temps by slowly conveying cool water to the system Greater vulnerability: Attempt to restore species to areas in which they can no longer survive Establishing restoration benchmarks in a changing climate Restoration ecologists who work to restore degraded lands sometimes struggle to establish benchmarks. What does "restoration" look like in different locations? What targets should they set? Many efforts aim to re-establish the original suite of species that existed at a site before humans developed lands, harvested species, introduced exotics, and dammed rivers. However, some ecologists argue that a historical target for restoration is no longer valid as climate changes. After all, it makes little sense to attempt to restore species to areas in which they can no longer survive. These ecologists suggest that we should plan for the future instead; they recommend planting species suited to the projected climate conditions of tomorrow. https://toolkit.climate.gov/case-studies/mapping-wildland-values-and-climate-change-vulnerability
- The upshot is that adaptation activities will usually build upon sustainable forest management and conservation. Much of what peple are already doing for smart forestry also makes good sense as a response to climate change.
- The FAR is a resource for you to draw on Intentionally consider climate – connect to mgmt. goals – customize adaptation responses/actions Shown to work well with managers who have diverse goals and values Intended to accommodate a diverse set of goals Part of that is our decision to not make management recommendations – that’s not what we are here to do
- Purpose to help managers logically consider climate change at the scale of their management. There are two main components to the document, a menu of strategies and approaches, and a workbook to structure and document climate considerations. S/A Result of literature review & expert feedback and review Provides a “menu” of possible actions to chose from based upon your needs and goals for the land.
- The workbook approaches adaptation from a perspective that is relevant to you; that is, starting with your management objectives in your geographic area, and working through a five-step process to assess potential impacts, The workbook creates framework for managers to customize management actions to help reduce risks and increase the success of management goals.
- Menu: Stepping stones from broad concepts to on-the-ground actions presents a menu of adaptation actions that can help sustain ecosystems and achieve management goals in the face of climate change. Came out of an extensive literature review, and is on route to be peer reviewed and published
- Sometimes in the process, a manager may identify a tactic first, then work up the hierarchy to identify how a tactic fits in with an intentional climate change adaptation strategy. In this example, we choose to plant future adapted species on south facing slopes. Favor more drought and heat tolerant species on sites expected to become warmer and drier (narrow ridge tops, south facing slopes with shallow soils, etc)
- Climate change creates new challenges, but also new opportunities. It will require both skill and creativity to address the challenges and take advantage of the opportunities. May need to prioritize actions based on vulnerability and ability to manage/adapt Reduce risk and plan ahead, not just for climate change, but for extreme events and disturbance Adaptive management maintains flexibility and incorporates new information over time Managing our natural resources will become more challenging as the climate continues to change, but change, complexity, and uncertainty have always been part of managing natural resources. Climate change creates new challenges, but also new opportunities. It will require both skill and creativity to address the challenges and take advantage of the opportunities. There is no single “right” way to respond to climate change, and many different actions will be needed to address the challenges. Incorporating information about the vulnerabilities and risks associated with the changing climate is an important first step. From there, emphasizing actions that maintain flexibility and address the greatest risks may preserve the most choices for future managers, even as they help meet current management goals. Act now! Deciding where to emphasize different climate adaptation strategies and where to spread risk among multiple strategies.