Climate Change Effects on Northwoods Forests
•Download as PPTX, PDF•
1 like•448 views
Stephen Handler (Forest Service, and NIACS), presented at the Adapting Forested Watersheds to Climate Change Workshop, at The Waters, Minocqua, WI on March 15-16, 2017. The workshop was hosted by the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science (NIACS), USDA Climate Hubs, and the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI).
Recommended
Recommended
More Related Content
What's hot
What's hot (20)
Similar to Climate Change Effects on Northwoods Forests
Similar to Climate Change Effects on Northwoods Forests (20)
More from Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science
More from Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science (20)
Recently uploaded
Recently uploaded (20)
Climate Change Effects on Northwoods Forests
- 1. Stephen Handler Climate change effects on Northwoods forests Stephen Handler Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science USDA Forest Service Climate Change Response Framework www.forestadaptation.org
- 3. Why should I care?
- 4. More Information Place-based, transparent Vulnerability Assessments • Examine a range of future climates • Do not make recommendations • Sources of information: • Models • Published research • Local managers and researchers Download: http://climateframework.org/vulnerability-assessment
- 5. Even More Information… Vulnerability Assessments for Wisconsin’s Natural Communities • Used NIACS process • Managers and researchers • Broad community groups (10) • Individual natural communities (52) Download: www.wicci.wisc.edu/plants-and-natural-communities-working-group.php
- 6. So Much More Information! Web-based, national resource for land managers • Connects land managers with useable science to address climate change in planning and application • Forest Service effort www.fs.usda.gov/ccrc
- 7. An Uncertain Future • Don’t wait for a crystal ball
- 8. We Don’t Need Certainty • Instead: think about risk management!
- 9. Impacts on Forests Source: necsc.umass.edu/news/drought-northeast-and-implications-ecosystems
- 10. Impacts on Forests • Longer growing season • CO2 fertilization • Altered soil moisture • Extreme weather events • Less frozen ground • Increased fire risk • Species range shifts • Increased stressors Sources: Handler et al. 2014, Janowiak et al. 2014
- 11. Longer Growing Season Benefits: - More time for growth! Limits: - Early bud break/loss of cold hardening - Frost damage with spring frosts Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011
- 12. CO2 Fertilization Benefits: - Increased growth - Water-use efficiency Limits: - Other nutrients or water - Stressors or disturbance Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011, Coture et al. 2015
- 13. Altered Soil Moisture Water loss from soils (evaporation) Greater uncertainty about future precipitation, but great risk of summer moisture stress Water loss from trees (transpiration) Groundwater recharge Runoff Precipitation
- 14. Extreme events are rare and hard to model. Extreme Weather Events
- 15. Frozen ground conditions have decreased across over the last 60+ years – WI example Less Frozen Ground Source: C. Rittenhouse (UConn) and A. Rissman (UW-Madison), in review 0 50 100 150 1948 1963 1978 1 Numberofdays Onieda county Season Linear (Season) Frozen Ground Season Annual data Trend 0 50 100 150 1948 1963 1978 1993 2008 Numberofdays Onieda county Season Frozen Linear (Season) Linear (Frozen) Frozen Ground Days Annual data Trend
- 16. Wildfire Risk Source: Guyette et al. 2014, Tang et al. 2014, Miranda et al. 2012, Moritz et al. 2012, Nowacki et al. 2014 Fire may increase, because: • Warmer/drier summers • Increased mortality from stress, pests, events • More frequent weather conditions that promote large fires …or maybe not, because: • Fire suppression will continue • Spring/early summer moisture • Current regeneration of more mesic species • Spatial patterns of land use and fragmentation
- 17. Species Range Shifts2070-2100 Low 2070-2100 High Quaking Aspen Source: Louis Iverson et al. (US Forest Service) Current Importance Value Low High Legend all_spp_current fia_802 1.000000 1.000001 - 4.000000 4.000001 - 6.000000 6.000001 - 9.000000 9.000001 - 11.000000 11.000001 - 14.000000 14.000001 - 23.000000 www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/
- 18. Species Range Shifts2070-2100 Low 2070-2100 High White Oak Source: Louis Iverson et al. (US Forest Service) Current Importance Value Low High Legend all_spp_current fia_802 1.000000 1.000001 - 4.000000 4.000001 - 6.000000 6.000001 - 9.000000 9.000001 - 11.000000 11.000001 - 14.000000 14.000001 - 23.000000 www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/
- 19. Species Range Shifts Handouts for many different regions: • Northern MN • Northern WI & western UP • Eastern UP & northern LP • Driftless Area • Southern WI • Southern MI Source: Louis Iverson et al. (US Forest Service)www.forestadaptation.org/Northwoods_treehandouts
- 20. Hemlock wooly adelgid: Pest limited by cold temps Exotic Earthworms: Increase drought susceptibility Invasive Plants: Outcompete stressed trees Increased Stressors Many forests are already under stress from other causes. Climate change could make forests more susceptible to existing or new stressors. Images: US Forest Service and L. Mehrhoff (UConn: invasives.org)
- 21. Forest Type Vulnerability (NIACS) Download: www.forestadaptation.org Lowland conifer Upland spruce-fir Aspen-birch Lowland/riparian hardwoods Red pine Northern hardwoods Jack pine Oak White pine Acid peatland Forested rich peatland Wet forest Managed aspen Managed red pine Fire-dependent forest Mesic hardwood forest Floodplain forest Upland spruce-fir Lowland conifer Red pine/ white pine Jack pine Aspen-birch Northern hardwoods Lowland/riparian hardwoods Oak associations Barrens
- 22. Natural Community Vulnerability (WICCI) Boreal Rich Fen Calcareous Fen Central Poor Fen Bog Relict Black Spruce Swamp Northern Tamarack Swamp Northern Wet-Mesic Forest Southern Tamarack Swamp Floodplain Forest Alder Thicket Floodplain Forest Download: www.wicci.wisc.edu/plants-and-natural-communities-working-group.php Muskeg Patterned Peatland Northern Hardwood Swamp Southern Hardwood Swamp White pine–Red Maple Swamp
- 23. Location, Location, LocationResearch and assessments describe broad trends but local conditions and management make the difference. Local knowledge and experience is crucial!
- 24. Thank You! Get in touch with questions: sdhandler@fs.fed.us, (906) 482-6303 ext 21 www.ForestAdaptation.org
- 25. Other On-going Stories Climate is not the complete story, but the story’s not complete without it. Frerker et al. 2014, Nowacki and Abrams 2014
Editor's Notes
- SNOW Cold winters Moderate soil frost Soils Rain throughout the year – soil moisture recharge
- The CCRC is a web-based, national resource that connects land managers and decision makers with useable science to address climate change in their work, bringing them through planning to all the way to application. The resource center provides easy access to credible, science-based information and tools for land managers integrating climate change into their work. For context the CCRC was started as a joint effort between NIACS, and the Forest Service many years ago, and is now evolving to expand content and scope to other agencies. Right now we have new representation from the USDA and Nat. Park Service on our production team, and there’s a major push to develop adaptation examples and topic pages relevant to those agencies in the future. That was a little in the weeds but is a really great development for the CCRC that we are excited about, so stay tuned. For now, if you were to check out the site you might find an emphasis on the Forest Service throughout, but I can assure you the information is flexible and adaptable to public lands management as a whole, we can all learn something at the CCRC. FS effort specifically from the Office of the Climate Change Advisor and Research and Development
- These are samples – much more in Ch 5 of vulnerability assessment Paper birch 0.87 to 0.23 Lg. Dec.
- These are samples – much more in Ch 5 of vulnerability assessment Paper birch 0.87 to 0.23 Lg. Dec.
- These are samples – much more in Ch 5 of vulnerability assessment Paper birch 0.87 to 0.23 Lg. Dec.
- Aspen decline in western us = climate is a contributing factor to observed widespread aspen mortality (increasing frequency of droughts), but stand age and stand structure and productivity determine how well stands could tolerate drought, or how much they suffered.