Presentation to The Trustees of Reservations in Massachusetts, April 2017.

1. Putting a “Climate Change Filter”
on Forest Stewardship and Conservation
Maria Janowiak
April 6, 2017
Mass Trustees

2. Northern Institute of Applied
Climate Science
www.nrs.fs.fed.us/niacs/
Carbon
Climate

3. Climate Change

4. Responding to Climate Change

5. If you want a single “answer” for how
to respond to climate change, it’s:
“It depends”
It depends on where you are working
and what you’re trying to achieve.

6. Forest Adaptation Resources
Adaptation Workbook

Strategies & Approaches

Menu of adaptation actions
Structured process to
integrate climate
change considerations
into management.
• Workbook approachOrder a copy at:
www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760 Also online: AdaptationWorkbook.org

7. What actions can be taken to
enhance the ability of a system to
cope with change
and
meet conservation goals and
objectives?

8. Swanston et al. 2016; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760
Adaptation Process
1. DEFINE area of
interest, management
objectives, and time
frames.
2. ASSESS climate
change impacts and
vulnerabilities for the
area of interest.
3. EVALUATE
management objectives
given projected impacts
and vulnerabilities.
4. IDENTIFY and
implement adaptation
approaches and tactics .
5. MONITOR and
evaluate effectiveness
of implemented
actions.

9. Adaptation Process: Deciphered
Swanston et al. 2016; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760
1. Where are you
and what do you
care about?
2. How is that
particular place
vulnerable to
climate change?
3. What challenges
or opportunities
does climate
change present?
4. What actions
can help systems
adapt to change?
5. How can you
know whether
those actions were
effective?

10. www.forestadaptation.org/demos
Adaptation Demonstrations
(real-world examples)

11. Climate Change:
Effects on New England’s Forests

12. www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment
Vulnerability Assessment
• Series of reports for natural
resource professionals
• Focus on tree species and
forest ecosystems
• Examine a range of future
climates
• Evaluate key ecosystem
vulnerabilities to climate change
• Does not make
recommendations or assess
vulnerability to changes in
mgmt., land use, policy

13. New England & Northern New York
• Synthesize existing literature and climate change
assessments
• Incorporate new results from models projecting
forest response to climate change
www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment

14. Observations: Warmer Temperatures
Warmer temperatures
• MA temperatures
increased about 2.8°F
since 1895
• Winter has warmed
most
• Extremely hot days have
increased
• Shorter duration of lake
ice cover
• Longer growing season
• Plants flowering earlier
Annual Temperature Change since 1895
NOAA Climate at a Glance; Melillo et al. 2014

15. Observations: Altered Precipitation
Altered Precipitation
• MA precipitation
increased over 5” since
1895
• High variability from
year to year
• Greatest increase of
more than 2” in fall
• Substantial increases in
extreme rain events:
71% increase across
northeast since 1958
Annual Precipitation Change since 1895
NOAA Climate at a Glance; Melillo et al. 2014

16. Observed Climate Trends
Sea-level Rise
• Sea level rose about 9 inches per century
• Increases in coastal flooding
Climate.gov, Adapted from J. Boothroyd, University of Rhode Island.
Relative sea level rise: Newport, RI tide gauge
Increased
about 10”
over last 100
years

17. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Increased disturbance
from extreme events
 Heavy precipitation
 Flooding
 Ice storms
 Heat waves/droughts
 Wind storms
 Hurricanes
“Events” are very
difficult to predict
=
(?)

18. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Increased disturbance
from extreme events
 Heavy precipitation
 Flooding
 Ice storms
 Heat waves/droughts
 Wind storms
 Hurricanes
“Events” are very
difficult to predict
VTRANS/VT ANR
NY DEC
Dan Turner,
Cambridge
Fire Dept.
NOAA

19. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Future predictions of
summer precipitation
are mixed.
Rain during the
growing season may
not change a lot.
More Precipitation
Less Precipitation
June-October
Figure: Lynch et al. 2016

20. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Future predictions of
summer precipitation
are mixed.
Rain during the
growing season may
not change a lot.
Precipitation

21. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Future predictions of
summer precipitation
are mixed.
Rain during the
growing season may
not change a lot.
Water loss from soils
(evaporation)
Groundwater
recharge
Runoff
PrecipitationWater loss from trees
(transpiration)

22. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Future predictions of
summer precipitation
are mixed.
Rain during the
growing season may
not change a lot.
Water loss from soils
(evaporation)
Groundwater
recharge
PrecipitationWater loss from trees
(transpiration)
Runoff
 Extreme events increase runoff

23. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Future predictions of
summer precipitation
are mixed.
Rain during the
growing season may
not change a lot.
 Extreme events increase runoff
 Warmer temperatures dry air & soils
Result: Risk of moisture stress & drought
Water loss from soils
(evaporation)
Water loss from trees
(transpiration)
Groundwater
recharge
Runoff
Precipitation

24. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Plant and animal
species will respond to
changes in climate.

25. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Plant and animal
species will respond to
changes in climate.
2070-2100 Low 2070-2100 High
Current Distribution
Importance Value
Low
High
Suitable Habitat: Red Spruce

26. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Plant and animal
species will respond to
changes in climate.
Basal Area: Red Spruce

27. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Plant and animal
species will respond to
changes in climate.
= species X
suitable habitat
50% Reduction in Habitat:
Habitat reduced equally Best habitats remain

28. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Plant and animal
species will respond to
changes in climate.
What really matters:
 Local conditions
 Competition
 Management
 Disturbance
Potential to decline
 Black, red, white spruce
 Northern white-cedar
 Eastern hemlock
 Eastern white pine
 Paper, yellow birch
Mixed model results
 American beech
 Balsam fir
 Northern red oak
 Sugar maple
 Quaking aspen
Potential “winners”
 Black, scarlet oak
 Blackgum
 Chestnut oak
 Eastern redcedar
 Flowering dogwood
 Pignut hickory
 Silver maple
 Sweet birch
 Yellow-poplar
New habitat
 American holly
 Black hickory
 Chinkapin oak
 Hackberry
 Shortleage pine
 Sweetgum
 Virginia pine
www.forestadaptation/org/ne-species

29. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Interactions make all
the difference.
 Chronic stress
 Disturbances
 Invasive species
 Insect pests
 Forest diseases
Image: Bartlett Tree Experts
Drought
Injury
Pests and
Disease

30. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Interactions make all
the difference.
 Chronic stress
 Disturbances
 Invasive species
 Insect pests
 Forest diseases
Ayres and Lombardero 2000, Woods et al. 2005, Parmesan 2006, Dukes et al. 2009 Image: Frumhoff et al. 2007
Forest Insects and Disease
Indirect: Stress from other impacts
increases susceptibility
Direct:
• Pests migrating northward
• Decreased probability of cold lethal temps
• Accelerated lifecycles
HWA lethal temp:
-20 to -30°F

31. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Interactions make all
the difference.
 Chronic stress
 Disturbances
 Invasive species
 Insect pests
 Forest diseases
Dukes et al. 2009, Rustad et al. 2011; Images: Invasives Plants Atlas of New England (www.eddmaps.org)
Invasives Species
Indirect: Stress or disturbance from other
impacts can affect the potential for
invasion or success
Direct:
• Expanded ranges under warmer
conditions
• Increased competitiveness from ability
of some plants to take advantage of
elevated CO2

32. Variable weather
Water changes
Species changes
Threat multiplier
Millar et al. 2015
Megadisturbance?

33. Generally Challenges
• Reduced growth from
moisture stress
• Decline of northern &
boreal species
• Disturbance from
extreme events
• Wildfire potential
• Forests pests & disease
• Invasive species
Generally Opportunities
• Increased productivity:
longer growing season
• Increased productivity:
more CO2
• Increased habitat for
some species
Depends on
SITE and OBJECTIVES!
Effects on Forests
www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment

34. Remember: Location, Location, Location
Research and assessments describe broad
trends but local conditions and management
make the difference.

35. Next time you’re in the woods
Take a look around & think about:
What’s important here?
How might it change?
What am I already doing to help?
What else can I do to help?
www.forestadaptation.org/NESAF2015

36. Putting a “ClimateChange Filter”
on Forest Stewardship and Conservation

37. Forest Adaptation Resources
Adaptation Workbook

Strategies & Approaches

Menu of adaptation actions
Structured process to
integrate climate
change considerations
into management.
• Workbook approachOrder a copy at:
www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760 Also online: AdaptationWorkbook.org

38. www.forestadaptation.org/demos
Adaptation Demonstrations
(real-world examples)

39. What actions can be taken to
enhance the ability of a system to
cope with change
and
meet conservation goals and
objectives?

40. Swanston et al. 2016; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760
Adaptation Process
1. DEFINE area of
interest, management
objectives, and time
frames.
2. ASSESS climate
change impacts and
vulnerabilities for the
area of interest.
3. EVALUATE
management objectives
given projected impacts
and vulnerabilities.
4. IDENTIFY and
implement adaptation
approaches and tactics .
5. MONITOR and
evaluate effectiveness
of implemented
actions.

41. Adaptation Process: Deciphered
Swanston et al. 2016; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760
1. Where are you
and what do you
care about?
2. How is that
particular place
vulnerable to
climate change?
3. What challenges
or opportunities
does climate
change present?
4. What actions
can help systems
adapt to change?
5. How can you
know whether
those actions were
effective?

42. Translating concepts to actions
Options (concepts):
• Resistance, Resilience, Transition
Strategies:
• Regionally specific conditions
Approaches:
• Actions for a specific ecosystem
or forest type
Tactics:
• Prescriptions for local conditions
and mgmt. objectives
Adaptation Strategies & Approaches
www.adaptationworkbook.org/niacs-strategies

43. Adaptation Strategies & Approaches
RESISTANCE RESILIENCE TRANSITION
 Improve defenses of
forest against change
 Maintain relatively
unchanged conditions
 Accommodate some
degree of change
 Return to prior condition
after disturbance
 Facilitate change
 Enable ecosystem to
respond to new and
changing conditions
Millar et al. 2007
Options – big concepts for how to respond

44. Adaptation Strategies & Approaches
Resist
Change
Promote a
Transition
Enhance
Resilience
1: Sustain fundamental ecological functions.
2: Reduce existing biological stressors.
3: Reduce impacts of severe disturbances.
4: Maintain or create refugia.
5: Enhance species and structural diversity.
6: Promote ecosystem redundancy.
7: Increase landscape connectivity.
8: Enhance genetic diversity.
9: Facilitate species transitions.
10: Realign after disturbance.
www.adaptationworkbook.org/niacs-strategies
StrategiesOptions

45. Why it’s important:
Helps connect the dots
from broad concepts to
specific actions for
implementation.
Management
Goals & Objectives
Climate Change Impacts
Intent of Adaptation (Option)
Make Idea Specific
(Strategy, Approach)
Action to Implement
(Tactic)
Challenges & Opportunities
Menu + Workbook: Connects the Dots

46. 1. Where are you and
what do you care about?

47. Caroline Lake Preserve
The Nature Conservancy
 About 1,000 acres of forest
 Acquired from industrial
ownership in 1997
 Working forest to
demonstrate sustainable
forestry practices
www.forestadaptation.org/carolinelake

48. Conservation Goals & Objectives:
Maintain/restore forests that were
historically characteristic of the area
 Mid-to-late successional structure
 Natural disturbances
 Under-represented species

49. Incorporate climate change
considerations into a forest
management plan
Northern Hardwoods (643 acres)
Lowland Conifer (259 acres)
Lowland Hardwoods (78 acres)
Shoreline Buffer (<5 acres)
Upland Conifer (<5 acres)

50. 2. How is this particular
place vulnerable to
climate change?

51. Climate Change Impacts
Regional Ecosystem Impacts
1) Longer growing season
2) Less snow, more rain
3) Altered soil moisture
4) Potential for summer drought
5) Extreme events
6)Species range shifts
7) Invasive plants
8)Forest pests and diseases
www.forestadaptation.org/vulnerability-assessment

52. Altered precipitation & drier conditions
• Located at headwaters of Bad River
• Contains numerous wetlands– very
vulnerable to hydrologic change
Projected declines in many common
northern species
 Property contains many species
expected to decline
 Site has high species diversity
compared to nearby forests
Climate Change Impacts

53. 3. What challenges or
opportunities does
climate change present?

54. Challenges
 Under-represented species
may not do better in future:
yellow birch, hemlock
 Lowland conifer/hardwood
forests are not managed
• Declining boreal conifers
• Potential emerald ash borer
in ash swamps
 Deer herbivory could
increase
Proportion of Stand Composed of
Species Projected to Decrease
Janowiak et al. (in review)

55. Challenges Opportunities
• Some species (white
pine and red oak) may
fare same or better in
future
• Small- or medium-sized
disturbances increase
structural diversity
• Unique site and location
may offer opportunities
for refugia
 Under-represented species
may not do better in future:
yellow birch, hemlock
 Lowland conifer/hardwood
forests are not managed
• Declining boreal conifers
• Potential emerald ash borer
in ash swamps
 Deer herbivory could
increase

56. 4. What actions can help
systems adapt to change?

57. Same actions–
climate change
just makes
them that
much more
important
Small “tweaks” that
improve effectiveness
New & different
actions to consider,
even some that may
seem wild & crazy
*individual results will vary
What adaptation looks like:

58. Already doing and even more important
Practice Current Purpose Adaptation Co-Benefits
Favor under-
represented
species
Species/structural
diversity; habitats
Hedge against decline of one
species; opportunity to favor
future-adapted species
Encourage
large woody
debris
Structural diversity;
habitats; nutrients
Create moister and cooler
conditions on forest floor
Mimic
natural
disturbances
Species/structural
diversity; accelerate
succession
Makes it easier to take
advantage of natural
disturbances

59. Small tweaks in management
Forest Current Action Adaptation Action
Northern
Hardwoods
Use single-tree or group
selection methods to
maintain species
composition/diversity and
increase structural
diversity
 Same, plus:
 Use large group selection or
shelterwood harvests to increase
northern red oak in some stands
 Promote white pine, black cherry,
yellow birch, and other desirable
species that are less likely to decline
Shoreline
Buffer
No harvest reserve area  Where opportunities exist, promote
white pine or other long-lived conifer
component for diversity/shoreline
shading

60. Wild and crazy? Addressing potential risks
Forest Current Action Adaptation Action
Lowland
Hardwoods
No harvest reserve
area
 No harvest reserve area, BUT:
 If regeneration is inadequate or emerald
ash borer mortality appears likely, consider
introduction of plantings of swamp white
oak, bur oak, etc.

61. 5. How can you know
whether those actions
were effective?

62. Climate-informed Forest Inventory
Traditional Metrics New Risk Metrics
• Total Stocking
• Tree Species Diversity
• Richness
• Evenness
• Large Coarse Woody Debris
• Regeneration
• Saplings
• Seedlings
• Risk of Decline
• Trees
• Saplings
• Seedlings
Janowiak et al. (in review)

63. More examples

64. Norcross Wildlife Sanctuary (MA/CT)
 Increase tree species diversity & forest structure
 Reduce impacts from forest pests and diseases
 Promote native species adapted to future conditions

65. Trout Unlimited & Partners (VT/MA)
 Increase tree species diversity & forest structure
 Reduce impacts from forest pests and diseases
 Increase stream connectivity
 Reducing impacts from extreme events, low flows, etc.

66. The Nature Conservancy (ME)
 Increase tree species diversity & forest
structure
 Promote future-adapted tree species by
planting (red & black spruce, white pine)
Current White Pine Abundance

67. Providence Water (RI)
 Reduce impacts from forest pests and diseases
 Promote future-adapted tree species by planting southern species
(black oak, pin oak, persimmon, pitch pine, shortleaf pine)
 Minimize impacts from herbivory

68. Accept uncertainty.
Use new information & ideas.
Take action, focusing on win-wins.
Be creative & flexible.
Work and learn with others.
A few final thoughts…