The document discusses innovative approaches for retooling institutions to address complex systemic issues, emphasizing agility, co-evolution, and an experimental mindset. It challenges traditional risk assessment and decision-making processes, advocating for monthly discussions around data and incorporating diverse perspectives. The focus is on redefining goals and navigating uncertainty to adapt and learn continuously.

1. Portfolios thinking & doing
Retooling institutions for the polycrisis
@gquaggiotto
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2. India’s latest export?

5. •Long term intent – “the infinite game”
•Start from the nature of the problem, not internal structure
[intra-dept task forces]
•Work with what you have [“exoskeleton”]
•Multiple parallel experiments/don’t put all your eggs into one basket
[outsourced R&D]
•The first iteration is [almost] always wrong - Premium on agility and
learning
•Co-evolution
Tackling a systemic issue

7. Single point solutions, “pray and spray”

8. Plaster fixes

9. •Long term intent – “the infinite game”
•Probes
•Start from the nature of the problem, not your taxonomy
•Work with what you have
• Multiple parallel experiments/don’t put all your eggs into one basket
•The first iteration is [almost] always wrong - Premium on agility and
learning
•Co-evolution
The typical “project”

10. "Solving homelessness means learning how to solve it every
day”

11. Change with greater purpose
Source: PERSPECTIVAS SOBRE LA INNOVACIÓN EN LOS AYUNTAMIENTOS ESPAÑOLES, 2024

13. Which industries should we invest in?

14. Change with greater purpose
What values do you embed in your systems?

15. Source: Edelman Trust Barometer 2024
“Demosclerosis”

16. How can we get our institutions to think &
act like Priyush?

20. Is it possible to change institutions from
within?

21. Source: UNDP

22. Change with greater purpose
Risk vs uncertainty
Source:
Thomas
Cern

23. A situation of not-knowing in which all 3 of the following are known:
1. all possible outcomes
2. all actions you could take
3. the probabilities of each outcome based on your actions
Source: Vaughn Tan, How to think more clearly about risk
Risk

25. Source: Vaughn Tan, The uncertainty mindset

26. “False” certainty

27. Source: Vaughn Tan, The uncertainty mindset

28. “Sensible – adaptive – public policy and business strategy
cannot be determined by quantitative assessments of policies
using probabilistic reasoning”
John Kay and Mervyn King, Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

29. •5-year plans
•KPIs and objectives
•Best practices & benchmarking
•Cost-benefit analysis & probabilistic modeling
•Logframes
•Specs based procurement and RFPs
•PRINCE & inductive/deductive reasoning
•Narrow problem definition
The dominant risk mindset

30. “Artefacts of certainty”

31. “Writing everything down”

33. The 3 most difficult words to say in
government…

35. An experimental mindset

37. Tatiana Fernandez, Generalitat de Catalunya
"My answer is always the same: what is extremely
risky and costly is to continue doing business as
usual"

38. An embracing uncertainty mindset

39. “Any system is perfectly designed to deliver the
results it delivers”

40. 1. Power
2. Identity
3. Coherence creates leverage
4. Back-office vs front office

43. 1. Power
2. Identity
3. Coherence creates leverage
4. Back office vs front office

44. Source: Fostering innovation in the public sector, OECD

45. 1. Power
2. Identity
3. Coherence creates leverage
4. Back office vs front office

46. Creating islands of coherence

47. “Traditionally, we define the ideal future state (the goal) and try to
get there, which only works when you have a high level of
predictability.
In complexity, we describe the present and see what is possible to
change, defining a direction, not a destination, setting ourselves on a
discovery journey”.
- D. Snowden
Work with what you have

48. Sensemaking

49. Uncertainty mindset: expanding not reducing
options
Source: Rowan Conway

50. 1. Power
2. Identity
3. Coherence creates leverage
4. Back office vs front office

52. Dynamic portfolio management

55. Working with uncertainty – abductive thinking

56. How can we get our institutions to think &
act like Priyush?

57. Reimagining decision making processes

58. 4Ps “decision making rooms”
in each entity
Monthly check-ins
• Proven (what data do we
have)?
• Problematic (what is
plausible, but might now
work?)
• Promising (what is
emerging?)
• Patterns (what patterns
do we see?)
Moving from reporting once a year
to a monthly discussion around the
data available
This is a room which includes
different types of backgrounds: Data
People, Strategists, Designers,
Front-Liners, officials
The 4Ps room

60. “Missions managers”

61. Thank you @gquaggiotto
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IDR
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