NTPC reported a 7.8% year-over-year increase in net sales to Rs. 12,944 crores in the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, driven by lower plant load factors. Operating profit fell 9.6% year-over-year to Rs. 3,345 crores due to higher fuel and employee expenses. Net profit declined 16.1% to Rs. 1,842 crores for the quarter. While NTPC added new capacity, plant load factors declined for some key plants, affecting power generation and margins. The company plans further large capacity additions over the next two fiscal years to drive future growth.

1. 1QFY2011 Result Update | Power
July 28, 2010
NTPC ACCUMULATE
CMP Rs199
Performance Highlights Target Price Rs230
Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY2011 4QFY2010 % chg qoq 1QFY2010 % chg yoy Investment Period 12 Months
Net sales 12,944 12,353 4.8 12,003 7.8
Stock Info
Operating profit 3,345 3,044 9.9 3,702 ( 9.6)
OPM (%) 25.1 23.9 124bp 29.5 (440)bp Sector Power
Net profit 1,842 2,018 (8.7) 2,194 (16.1) Market Cap (Rs cr) 164,429
Beta 0.6
Source: Company, Angel Research
52 Week High / Low 242/190
NTPC posted a moderate 7.8% yoy increase in net sales to Rs12,944cr in Avg. Daily Volume 580603
1QFY2011, driven by lower PLFs recorded in the 1,600MW Farakka (74% in Face Value (Rs) 10
1QFY2011 vs. 85% in 1QFY2010) 2,340MW Kahalgoan (64% in 1QFY11 vs. BSE Sensex 17,957
74% in 1QFY2010) and 705MW Badarpur plants (79% in 1QFY2011 vs. 92% in
Nifty 5,398
1QFY2010). We believe interruptions in coal supply affected power generation in
Reuters Code NTPC.BO
the Farakka and Kahalgoan plants. During the quarter, sales volume remained
Bloomberg Code NATP@IN
flat at 55.7BU (55.5BU in 1QFY2010) despite the additional 990MW (Dadri
490MW and Kahalgoan 500MW) units in operation. We maintain Accumulate on
the stock with a Target Price of Rs230. Shareholding Pattern (%)
Bottom line down 16.1% on higher costs and low incentives: The OPM for the Promoters 84.5
quarter fell by 440bp yoy to 25.1% on account of higher fuel and employee MF / Banks / Indian Fls 10.6
expenses, which grew by 12.4% and 15.8%, respectively, on a yoy basis. Lower FII / NRIs / OCBs 2.6
PLFs during the quarter also resulted in lower incentives, thereby affecting Indian Public / Others 2.3
margins. Net profit declined by 16% yoy to Rs1,842cr during the quarter.
Valuation: At the CMP of Rs199, the stock is trading at P/BV of 2.4x FY2011E and Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
2.2x FY2012E and at an EV/MW of Rs4.35cr on FY2012E estimates. Considering
Sensex 3.3 17.1 17.9
its regulated business model, with an assured return on equity and strong cash
NTPC (3.2) (7.1) 23.6
flow visibility, we have assigned Rs5.25cr EV/MW at and a P/BV of 2.3x on
FY2012E estimates to arrive at a Target Price. We maintain Accumulate on the
stock.
Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 44,245 48,221 51,605 58,520
% chg 14.5 9.0 7.0 13.4
Net Profits 8,092 8,728 7,965 9,116
% chg 8.3 7.9 (8.7) 14.4
OPM (%) 23.8 29.7 29.8 30.4
EPS (Rs) 9.8 10.6 9.7 11.1
P/E (x) 20.3 18.8 20.6 18.0
Rupesh Sankhe
P/BV (x) 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 022-40403800 Ext:319
RoE (%) 14.2 14.0 11.9 12.7 rupeshd.sankhe@angeltrade.com
RoCE (%) 8.8 11.1 10.7 11.4
EV/Sales (x) 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.5 V Srinivasan
022-40403800 Ext:330
EV/EBITDA (x) 17.6 13.3 12.6 11.5
v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

2. NTPC |1QFY2011 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 1QFY2011 performance - Standalone
Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY2011 4QFY2010 % Chg 1QFY2010 % Chg FY2010 FY2009 % Chg
Net Sales 12,944 12,353 4.8 12,003 7.8 46,323 41,924 10.5
Other Operating Income 358 378 (5.3) 525 (31.8) 1,899 2,176 (12.7)
Total Operating Income 13,303 12,732 4.5 12,528 6.2 48,221 44,099 9.3
Fuel Cost 8,702 8,346 4.3 7,743 12.4 29,463 27,111 8.7
(% of Sales) 67 68 64 65
Staff Costs 684 746 (8.3) 590 15.8 2,412 2,463 (2.1)
(% of Sales) 5 6 5 6
Other Expenses 572 596 (4.1) 493 15.9 2,027 1,952 3.8
(% of Sales) 4 5 4 5
Total Expenditure 9,958 9,688 2.8 8,826 12.8 33,902 31,526 7.5
Operating Profit 3,345 3,044 9.9 3,702 (9.6) 14,319 12,573 13.9
OPM 25.1 23.9 29.5 30.9 30.0
Interest 536 482 11.2 445 20.5 1,809 1,996 (9.4)
Depreciation 683 732 (6.8) 613 11.4 2,650 2,364 12.1
Other Income 227 250 (9.1) 251 (9.6) 1,025 1,147 (10.6)
PBT (excl. Extr. Items) 2,353 2,079 13.2 2,895 (18.7) 10,885 9,359 16.3
Extr. Income/(Expense) - -
PBT (incl. Extr. Items) 2,353 2,079 13.2 2,895 (18.7) 10,885 9,359 16.3
(% of Sales) 18 17 24 23 22
Provision for Taxation 511 62 727.5 701 (27.0) 2,157 1,158 86.3
(% of PBT) 22 3 20 12
Reported PAT 1,842 2,018 (8.7) 2,194 (16.1) 8,728 8,201 6.4
PATM 14 16 18 19 20
Equity Capital 8,245 8,245 8,245 8,245 8,245
EPS (Rs) 2.2 2.4 2.7 10.6 9.9
Adjusted PAT 1,842 2,018 (8.7) (8.7) 8,728.2 8,201 6.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 1QFY2011- Actual v/s Angel estimates
(Rs cr) Actual Estimates Variation (%)
Net Sales 12,944 13,110 (1.3)
Operating Profit 3,345 3,445 (2.9)
Net Profit 1,842 2,279 (19.2)
Source: Company, Angel Research
July 28, 2010 2

3. NTPC |1QFY2011 Result Update
Operational Highlights
During the quarter, the company’s sales volume remained flat at 55.7BU
(55.5BU in 1QFY2010). PLF of coal-based plants declined to 90.2% in
1QFY2011 compared to 92.8% in 1QFY2010. The OPM was also down by 440bp
yoy to 25.1% during the quarter.
Exhibit 3: Operational performance
250 94
200 90
150 86
%
BU
100 82
50 78
0 74
FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10
Generation PLF ‐ (RHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Capacity addition
In 4QFY2010, 490MW of coal-based capacity at Dadri in Uttar Pradesh and the
500MW unit at Kahalgoan in Bihar were declared commercial. Currently, the
company’s capacity stands at 31,704MW (incl. 2,864MW under the JV), while
capacity under construction is at 17,830MW. Management has guided that it
would add 4,150MW and 6,500MW of capacity in FY2011E and FY2012E,
respectively. On a consolidated basis, the company plans to incur capex of
Rs29,000cr during FY2011E and add 4,150MW of capacity during FY2011.
Exhibit 4: Capacity addition planned for FY2011E
Project MW
Sipat Stage-I, Unit-I 660
Jhajjar, Unit- I &2 1,000
Korba Stage–III, Unit -7 500
NCTPP Stage–II, Unit – 6 490
Simhadri, Stage–II, Unit- 3&4 1,000
Farakka, Stage-III, Unit 6 500
Total 4,150
Source: Company, Angel Research
July 28, 2010 3

4. NTPC |1QFY2011 Result Update
Investment Arguments
Capacity addition to drive future growth: NTPC, India’s largest power generating
company, currently has a capacity of 31,704MW. Having the best execution
capability in the industry, management has an ambitious target of adding
22,300MW during the Eleventh Plan, thus taking its installed capacity to
50,000MW. The company has till date managed to add only 4,300MW since the
beginning of the plan period, with most of its capacity addition expected to be
back-ended. In all, we estimate the company to add close to 15,000MW during
the plan period.
Earnings protected by the regulated return model: NTPC, being a Central Public
Utility (CPU), is governed under the regulated return model. The CERC’s
regulations for FY2010–14 increased the cap on RoE to 15.5% (on a pre-tax basis,
grossed up for tax) from the earlier 14% (on a post-tax basis), which is a positive
for all CPUs.
NTPC to generate stable cash flows: NTPC has 85% of its overall output tied
up under the long-term PPA route, which ensures power offtake, thereby
ensuring stable cash flows for the company.
July 28, 2010 4

5. NTPC |1QFY2011 Result Update
Outlook and Valuation
India, despite being one of the lowest per capita consumers of power, has an
overall power deficit of 11%. Power demand in the country, which has grown at a
rate of 6% since FY2003, has continued to outstrip supply. The escalation in power
demand is expected to be robust going ahead as well, in line with healthy GDP
growth estimated for the country. Apart from the arising demand from the
industrial front, domestic demand is also expected to pick up, with the Ministry of
Power’s ambitious target of achieving per capita consumption of 1,000 units by
2012.
NTPC, the market leader in power generation, has assets of 31,704MW, which
translates into a 20% market share of the overall domestic power industry.
Moreover, of the 22,300MW capacity that NTPC plans to add during the Eleventh
Plan Period (FY2007–12), it has till date managed to add only 4,300MW, while
another 17,830MW is under construction. Management has proposed capacity
expansions of 4,150MW and 6500MW in FY2011E and FY2012E, respectively.
Going forward, we believe NTPC’s regulated business model will provide a high
revenue visibility, to the company. However, delays in the completion of its projects
would be a dampener.
At the CMP of Rs199, the stock is trading at a P/BV of 2.4x FY2011E and 2.2x
FY2012E and at an EV/MW of Rs4.35cr on FY2012E estimates. Considering its
regulated business model, with an assured RoE and strong cash flow visibility, we
have assigned an EV/MW of Rs5.25cr and a P/BV of 2.3x on FY2012E estimates to
arrive at a Target Price of Rs230. We maintain an Accumulate rating on the stock.
Exhibit 5: Change in estimates
(Rs cr) FY2011E FY2012E
Earlier Revised Variation (%) Earlier Revised Variation (%)
Net Sales 52,812 51,605 (2.3) 62,152 58,520 (5.8)
Operating Exp 37,089 36,242 (2.3) 43,275 40,746 (5.8)
Operating Profit 15,723 15,363 (2.3) 18,877 17,774 (5.8)
Depreciation 3,201 3,440 7.5 3,995 4,096 2.5
Interest 2,531 2,328 (8.0) 3,004 2,933 (2.4)
PBT 12,938 10,621 (17.9) 14,825 11,770 (20.6)
Tax 3,234 2,655 (17.9) 3,233 2,654 (17.9)
PAT 9,703 7,965 (17.9) 11,591 9,117 (21.3)
Source: Angel Research
July 28, 2010 5

6. NTPC |1QFY2011 Result Update
Exhibit 6: Key assumptions
Earlier Estimates Revised Estimates
FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E
Installed Capacity (MW) 35,704 42,204 35,204 41,704
Growth (%) 12.6 18.2 11 18.5
Sale Volume (BU) 235 249 229 249
Growth (%) 8 6 5 9
Realisation (Rs/unit) 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
Growth (%) 5 3 5 3
Source: Angel Research
Exhibit 7: Angel estimates v/s Bloomberg consensus
Year/(Rs) Angel Est. Bloomberg Consensus Var (%) over consensus
FY2011E 9.9 12.2 -18.9
FY2012E 11.7 13.6 -14.0
Source: Angel Research, Bloomberg
Exhibit 8: Recommendation summary
CMP Tgt Price Upside FY12E FY12E FY2010-12E FY12E FY12E RoE
Company Reco.
(Rs) (Rs) (%) P/BV (x) P/E (x) EPS CAGR (%) RoCE (%) (%)
CESC Buy 388 470 21.1 1.0 8.4 15.6 9.3 12.5
GIPCL Buy 112 135 20.9 1.2 8.9 33.6 8.3 12.8
NTPC Buy 199 230 15.5 2.2 17.9 2.3 11.4 12.7
Source: Angel Research
Exhibit 9: One year forward P/BV Band
(Share Price Rs)
260
210
160
110
60
Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10
Price 1.5X 2X 2.5X 3X
Source: Company, Angel Research
July 28, 2010 6

7. NTPC |1QFY2011 Result Update
Exhibit 10: Premium to Sensex P/E
100
80
60
40
(
%
20
)
0
-20
-40
Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10
Prem/Disc to Sensex Historic Avg Premium
Source: Company, Angel Research
July 28, 2010 7

8. NTPC |1QFY2011 Result Update
Profit and Loss statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net Operating Income 33,876 38,635 44,245 48,221 51,605 58,520
Other operating
- - - - - -
income
Total operating income 33,876 38,635 44,245 48,221 51,605 58,520
% chg 22.8 14.0 14.5 9.0 7.0 13.4
Total Expenditure 23,764 27,222 33,702 33,902 36,242 40,746
Net Raw Materials 20,953 22,219 27,347 29,463 30,104 33,844
Other Mfg costs 861 3,050 3,823 2,027 3,816 4,327
Personnel 1,411 1,953 2,533 2,412 2,322 2,575
Other 538 - - - - -
EBITDA 10,112 11,413 10,544 14,319 15,363 17,774
% chg 30.0 12.9 (7.6) 35.8 7.3 15.7
(% of Net Sales) 30 30 24 30 30 30
Depreciation&
2,100 2,206 2,495 2,650 3,440 4,096
Amortisation
EBIT 8,012 9,207 8,049 11,669 11,923 13,678
% chg 40.3 14.9 (12.6) 45.0 2.2 14.7
(% of Net Sales) 24 24 18 24 23 23
Interest & other
2,010 1,858 2,144 1,809 2,328 2,933
Charges
Other Income 2,959 3,002 3,402 1,025 1,025 1,025
(% of PBT) - - - - - -
Share in profit of
- - - - - -
Associates
Recurring PBT 8,973 10,351 9,307 10,885 10,621 11,771
% chg - - - - - -
Extraordinary
11 - - - - 1
Expense/(Inc.)
PBT (reported) 8,961 10,351 9,307 10,885 10,621 11,770
Tax 2,063 2,881 1,215 2,157 2,655 2,654
(% of PBT) 23.0 27.8 13.1 19.8 25.0 22.5
PAT (reported) 6,898 7,470 8,092 8,728 7,965 9,116
ADJ. PAT 6,909 7,470 8,092 8,728 7,965 9,117
% chg 5.4 8.1 8.3 7.9 (8.7) 14.5
(% of Net Sales) 20.4 19.3 18.3 18.1 15.4 15.6
Basic EPS (Rs) 8 9 10 10.6 9.7 11.1
Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 8 9 10 11 9.7 11.1
% chg 5.4 8.1 8.3 7.9 (8.7) 14.5
July 28, 2010 8

9. NTPC |1QFY2011 Result Update
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 8,246 8,246 8,246 8,246 8,246 8,246
Preference Capital - - - - - -
Reserves& Surplus 41,124 45,991 51,706 56,712 60,662 65,858
Shareholders Funds 49,369 54,236 59,951 64,958 68,908 74,104
Minority Interest 48 124 166 166 166 166
Total Loans 27,020 30,315 38,823 45,821 42,321 53,320
Deferred Tax Liability - - - - - -
Total Liabilities 76,437 84,675 98,940 110,945 111,395 127,590
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 51,093 55,648 64,742 70,742 86,008 117,040
Less: Acc.
25,217 27,487 29,776 32,426 35,866 39,962
Depreciation
Net Block 25,877 28,161 34,966 38,316 50,142 77,078
Capital Work-in-
20,286 25,630 30,929 39,135 35,263 24,578
Progress
Goodwill 2 - - - - -
Investments 15,143 13,447 11,696 11,696 14,571 14,571
Current Assets 26,604 26,346 33,486 30,990 24,969 28,313
Cash 13,698 15,361 17,251 19,021 12,161 13,788
Loans & Advances 8,902 5,031 9,006 6,269 6,709 7,608
Other 4,004 5,954 7,230 5,720 6,100 6,917
Current liabilities 11,475 8,908 12,137 9,212 13,787 14,678
Net Current Assets 15,129 17,438 21,349 21,797 11,419 11,362
Mis. Exp. not written
- - - - - -
off
Total Assets 76,437 84,675 98,940 110,945 111,395 127,590
July 28, 2010 9

10. NTPC |1QFY2011 Result Update
Cash flow statement
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Profit before tax 8,961 10,351 9,307 10,885 10,621 11,770
Depreciation 2,100 2,206 2,495 2,650 3,440 4,096
Change in Working
1,813 2,063 1,367 1,386 3,289 1,555
Capital
Less: Other income 2,959 3,002 3,402 1,025 1,025 1,025
Direct taxes paid 2,063 2,881 1,215 2,157 2,655 2,654
Cash Flow from
7,851 8,736 8,553 11,739 13,670 13,742
Operations
(Inc)/ Decin Fixed Assets (8,661) (9,896) (14,394) (14,206) (11,394) (20,347)
(Inc)/ Dec in Investments 3,449 1,696 1,751 - (2,875) -
(Inc)/ Dec in loans and
- - - - - -
advances
Other income 2,959 3,002 3,402 1,025 1,025 1,025
Cash Flow from
(2,252) (5,198) (9,241) (13,181) (13,244) (19,322)
Investing
Issue of Equity - - - - - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans 4,540 3,295 8,508 6,999 (3,500) 11,000
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 3,038 3,313 3,786 3,786 3,786 3,793
Others 2,010 1,858 2,144 - - -
Cash Flow from
(508) (1,876) 2,578 3,212 (7,286) 7,207
Financing
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 5,091 1,662 1,890 1,771 (6,860) 1,627
Opening Cash balances 8,608 13,698 15,361 17,251 19,021 12,161
Closing Cash balances 13,698 15,360 17,250 19,021 12,161 13,788
July 28, 2010 10

11. NTPC |1QFY2011 Result Update
Key Ratios
Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 23.8 22.0 20.3 18.8 20.6 18.0
P/CEPS 18.3 17.0 15.5 14.4 14.4 12.4
P/BV 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2
Dividend yield (%) 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
EV/Sales 5.2 4.6 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.5
EV/EBITDA 17.5 15.7 17.6 13.3 12.6 11.5
EV / Total Assets 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6
Per Share Data (Rs)
EPS (Basic) 8.4 9.1 9.8 10.6 9.7 11.1
EPS (fully diluted) 8.4 9.1 9.8 10.6 9.7 11.1
Cash EPS 10.9 11.7 12.8 13.8 13.8 16.0
DPS 3.7 4.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6
Book Value 59.9 65.8 72.7 79.0 83.8 90.1
Dupont Analysis
EBIT margin 23.7 23.8 18.2 24.2 23.1 23.4
Tax retention ratio 77.0 72.2 86.9 80.2 75.0 77.5
Asset turnover (x) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6
ROIC (Post-tax) 10.2 10.1 9.3 10.8 9.4 10.0
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 6.3 4.7 5.4 3.4 4.0 4.7
Leverage (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5
Operating ROE 11.3 11.6 10.5 13.6 11.7 12.5
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax) 11.1 11.4 8.8 11.1 10.7 11.4
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 19.0 21.5 17.1 22.6 20.5 17.9
ROE 14.6 14.4 14.2 14.0 11.9 12.7
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross
0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6
Block)
Inventory / Sales (days) 27.0 25.5 25.5 27.0 27.3 26.6
Receivables (days) 12.7 21.5 28.8 21.9 14.4 14.0
Payables (days) 156.7 136.7 114.0 114.9 115.8 127.5
Working cap cycle
13.4 16.6 25.5 25.9 7.1 (9.9)
(ex-cash) (days)
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Net debt to EBITDA 1.3 1.3 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.2
Interest Coverage (EBIT
4.0 5.0 3.8 6.5 5.1 4.7
/ Interest)
July 28, 2010 11

12. NTPC |1QFY2011 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement NTPC
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
July 28, 2010 12