Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2015

1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
October 2015
Focus on: Banks
© Amárach Research

Christmas Promise
It’s a bit early to be talking about Christmas –
unless you’re a retailer of course.
Certainly our October 2015 Economic
Recovery Index bodes well for the Christmas
period this year as improving economic
sentiment feeds into greater willingness to
spend.
This month we’ve focused on the attitudes and
intentions of customers of Ireland’s main
banks.
Regardless of Christmas, the fact that the ERI
has remained above the 40 mark for four
months in a row is a sure sign of improvement
(though with plenty of room for more).

The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out over six years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009
to October 2015.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 18th to 25th October 2015 inclusive.
See how bad it was six years ago:
http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/the-economic-recovery-index-October-results-2009

Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The ERI continued its surge in October, reaching another record high level:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, October 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Apr'09
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
the ERI has stayed above the 40 level for four months in a row…

ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Oct-09 47 30 22 1 0 19.6
Oct-10 56 23 18 2 1 16.3
Oct-11 42 31 25 2 0 22.0
Oct-12 48 28 21 3 0 19.8
Oct-13 32 32 32 4 0 27.4
Oct-14 18 28 38 14 2 38.3
Sep-15 13 29 33 24 1 43.0
Oct-15 11 27 34 21 3 43.9
a majority of consumers see signs of improvement

Economic Outlook
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement by Main Bank:
October 2015 TOTAL AIB
Bank of
Ireland
Ulster
Bank
Permanent
TSB
Credit
Union
1000 349 257 99 176 49
The economic situation in Ireland
is getting worse
11% 8% 13% 12% 14% 12%
The economic situation is bad but
has stabilized
27% 29% 24% 36% 24% 27%
The economic situation is bad but
showing a few signs of
improvement
34% 34% 37% 32% 30% 39%
The economic situation is getting
better and showing clear signs of
improvement
21% 24% 21% 14% 24% 14%
The economic situation is good
and almost fully recovered from the
recession
3% 2% 2% 1% 5% 0
ERI Score 43.9 45.4 43.4 38.3 45.0 39.7

Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am optimistic
in spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
Oct-09 48 46 55 56
Oct-10 26 41 44 52
Oct-11 26 38 49 45
Oct-12 26 38 48 44
Oct-13 30 36 44 43
Oct-14 41 43 51 40
Sep-15 47 45 57 45
Oct-15 42 46 54 45
positive sentiment is stable, while any improvement is very gradual…

Positive Outlook
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by main bank):
“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Bank of
Ireland
Ulster
Bank
Permanent
TSB
Credit
Union
1000 349 257 99 176 49
Strongly Agree 14% 13% 16% 12% 16% 6%
Slightly Agree 31% 33% 30% 25% 33% 40%
Neither/Nor 17% 16% 15% 21% 16% 14%
Slightly Disagree 18% 19% 19% 24% 16% 12%
Strongly Disagree 15% 15% 15% 15% 16% 22%

Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of the
recession
My main
financial priority
is to pay off my
debts as quickly
as possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Oct-09 16 32 61 33
Oct-10 15 25 59 27
Oct-11 14 22 54 23
Oct-12 16 25 56 25
Oct-13 18 24 57 24
Oct-14 23 25 57 25
Sep-15 31 28 54 30
Oct-15 33 27 51 28
…spending sentiment is at its most positive level in years…

Driving Spending
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
As Economic Outlook Improves, Spending Improves As Well
Economic Recovery Index (LHS) I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago: % agree (RHS)

Reluctant Borrowers
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by main bank):
“I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I need to”
Bank of
Ireland
Ulster
Bank
Permanent
TSB
Credit
Union
1000 349 257 99 176 49
Strongly Agree 10% 13% 8% 4% 10% 5%
Slightly Agree 19% 20% 22% 16% 20% 5%
Neither/Nor 18% 15% 16% 22% 16% 30%
Slightly Disagree 20% 21% 20% 21% 18% 27%
Strongly Disagree 29% 27% 29% 34% 32% 31%

The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to October 2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to October 2015
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

The Mood of the Nation – III
TOTAL AIB
Bank of
Ireland
Ulster
Bank
Permanent
TSB
Credit
Union
TOTAL 1000 349 257 99 176 49
Happiness 50% 45% 54% 48% 55% 54%
Enjoyment 48% 45% 53% 46% 52% 37%
Stress 34% 35% 30% 35% 37% 39%
Worry 28% 26% 28% 34% 30% 27%
Anxiety 23% 23% 23% 24% 22% 20%
Boredom 22% 22% 21% 17% 22% 33%
Physical Pain 20% 18% 21% 23% 22% 23%
Sadness 14% 15% 13% 14% 15% 16%
Loneliness 13% 14% 13% 9% 13% 21%
Anger 13% 12% 12% 19% 15% 19%
Fear 7% 8% 7% 8% 7% 7%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes by Main Bank

Momentum
With just over two months of 2015 remaining,
our Economic Recovery Index continues to
sustain the momentum we saw at the start of
the summer.
We’ll keep tracking the recovery’s progress
over the rest of the year – and keep you
posted about Ireland’s consumer needs.
We hope you find this edition of the
Economic Recovery Index helpful and
please do get in contact if you want to
discuss how it can be applied to your brand
planning requirements in 2015.
For more on the ERI see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

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Trends Report
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/

Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2015

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