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Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2014
The document summarizes the findings of an Economic Recovery Index (ERI) survey conducted in November 2014 in Ireland. It finds that: 1) The ERI has reached its highest level since measurements began in 2009, indicating economic recovery is continuing. 2) However, some measures of emotional well-being remain fragile, with many still experiencing stress and worry. 3) Consumer willingness to spend is back to pre-recession levels, boding well for Christmas shopping but likely from savings rather than borrowing.
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Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2014
- 1. 1 Economic RecoveryIndex Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing November 2014 © Amárach Research
- 2. 2 Economic RecoveryIndex Making Progress It’s only when you look back that you see how far you’ve come; and so it is this month: the lowest point ever reached by our Economic Recovery Index was in November 2010 – just four years ago. This month, the Economic Recovery Index has reached its highest level since we began measuring it back in April 2009 – a fivefold increase since November 2010 to be precise. Some measures remain fragile nevertheless – like the emotional wellbeing of the population: we usually see a mild form of ‘seasonal affective disorder’ set in right about now… The good news is that consumer willingness to spend is back to its recent record high, which bodes well coming up to Christmas.
- 3. 3 Economic RecoveryIndex The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out over five years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to November 2014. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 5th-12th November 2014 inclusive. See how bad it was four years ago: http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amarach-recovery-indicator-november-2010
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- 5. 5 Economic RecoveryIndex Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). Our Index has once again reached a new record level: The Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, November 2014 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Apr '09 Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov November 2010 was the lowest point in the ERI, 4 years on it’s at its highest ever…
- 6. 6 Economic RecoveryIndex A Matter of Measurement Oct ’14: 18% Nov ’14: 17% Oct ’14: 28% Nov ’14: 29% Oct ’14: 38% Nov ’14: 37% Oct ’14: 14% Nov ’14: 16% Oct ’14: 2% Nov ’14: 2% Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) A solid majority of Irish people continue to say that the economy is improving:
- 7. 7 Economic RecoveryIndex ERI Summary Table Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? % choosing each statement: % The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse The economic situation is bad but has stabilized The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered Economic Recovery Index Nov-09 51 27 21 1 0 17.8 Nov-10 80 12 6 1 1 7.3 Nov-11 57 24 17 2 0 16.3 Nov-12 47 30 20 3 0 19.6 Nov-13 26 36 32 5 0 29.6 Oct-14 18 28 38 14 2 38.3 Nov-14 17 29 37 16 2 38.9 the ERI has risen fivefold in the four years since November 2010
- 8. 8 Economic RecoveryIndex Recovery – Four Years On Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? (by sex, class, family, income) Source: Amárach Research, November 2014 November 2014 TOTAL Male Female ABC1 C2DE Child’n under 17 Child’n over 17 Incomeunder €30k Income €30-60k Income €60-90k Income €90k+ 1000 494 506 477 523 382 380 348 310 108 57 The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse 17% 18% 15% 13% 20% 18% 17% 22% 15% 10% 8% The economic situation is bad but has stabilized 29% 26% 29% 26% 30% 30% 25% 29% 28% 30% 22% The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement 37% 32% 39% 40% 32% 34% 40% 35% 37% 36% 45% The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement 16% 19% 11% 16% 14% 12% 16% 11% 17% 22% 17% The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered from the recession 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% * 1% 1% 2% 6% ERI Score 38.9 40.1 37.7 41.9 36.1 35.9 39.9 34.4 40.8 45.7 48.2
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- 10. 10 Economic RecoveryIndex Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me Nov-09 41 45 51 52 Nov-10 18 32 33 45 Nov-11 23 34 42 45 Nov-12 27 34 44 43 Nov-13 36 42 49 44 Oct-14 41 43 51 40 Nov-14 40 38 52 39 while ‘macro sentiment’ remains positive, ‘micro sentiment’ is still weak
- 11. 11 Economic RecoveryIndex Still Optimistic % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, class, family, income): “Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time” Source: Amárach Research, November 2014 November 2014 TOTAL Male Female ABC1 C2DE Child’n under 17 Child’n over 17 Incomeunder €30k Income €30-60k Income €60-90k Income €90k+ Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 477 523 382 380 348 310 108 57 Strongly Agree 11% 13% 9% 13% 10% 10% 9% 8% 13% 17% 23% Slightly Agree 29% 29% 28% 33% 25% 28% 27% 24% 32% 37% 33% Neither/Nor 15% 13% 18% 16% 15% 15% 14% 17% 13% 10% 11% Slightly Disagree 18% 19% 18% 16% 21% 18% 20% 22% 17% 19% 9% Strongly Disagree 19% 21% 17% 17% 21% 21% 23% 22% 19% 14% 22%
- 12. 12 Economic RecoveryIndex Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession My main financial priority is to pay off my debts as quickly as possible I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I need to Nov-09 16 27 62 28 Nov-10 11 24 50 20 Nov-11 15 26 55 23 Nov-12 16 25 53 22 Nov-13 22 24 54 26 Oct-14 23 25 57 25 Nov-14 26 24 54 28 the % of consumers relaxed about spending is back to peak levels
- 13. 13 Economic RecoveryIndex Purses & Wallets % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago” Source: Amárach Research, November 2014 November 2014 TOTAL Male Female ABC1 C2DE Child’n under 17 Child’n over 17 Incomeunder €30k Income €30-60k Income €60-90k Income €90k+ Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 477 523 382 380 348 310 108 57 Strongly Agree 9% 10% 7% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 9% 14% 14% Slightly Agree 18% 17% 18% 22% 13% 16% 18% 9% 21% 23% 31% Neither/Nor 20% 20% 20% 24% 16% 19% 21% 16% 18% 27% 23% Slightly Disagree 22% 23% 22% 20% 25% 22% 22% 28% 21% 18% 11% Strongly Disagree 30% 28% 32% 23% 36% 34% 30% 39% 28% 18% 21%
- 14. 14 Economic RecoveryIndex Consumer Sentiment Summary Table III % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % I always buy the lowest price products or services I am always on the lookout for opportunities to switch to cheaper suppliers I have more choice than before when it comes to products and services I always buy Irish when I can Apr-13 57 71 52 52 May-13 58 69 54 54 Jun-13 55 70 55 51 Jul-13 56 70 52 53 Aug-13 57 70 53 53 Sep-13 59 72 53 54 Oct-13 58 69 52 51 Nov-13 56 69 55 51 Dec-13 54 68 54 53 Jan-14 59 74 56 54 Feb-14 56 70 57 52 Mar-14 57 68 56 48 Apr-14 56 69 54 50 May-14 60 72 55 51 Jun-14 55 70 58 52 Jul-14 58 72 58 48 Aug-14 56 71 60 51 Sep-14 55 74 61 53 Oct-14 56 68 58 51 Nov-14 58 67 57 52
- 15. Mood of theNation
- 16. 16 Economic RecoveryIndex The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2014 Source: Amárach Research, November 2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Apr '09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
- 17. 17 Economic RecoveryIndex The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2014 Source: Amárach Research, November 2014 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Apr '09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
- 18. 18 Economic RecoveryIndex Mood Groups Source: Amárach Research, November 2014 November 2014 TOTAL Male Female ABC1 C2DE Child’n under 17 Child’n over 17 Incomeunder €30k Income €30-60k Income €60-90k Income €90k+ 1000 494 506 477 523 382 380 348 310 108 57 Enjoyment 48% 46% 50% 51% 45% 43% 53% 47% 49% 59% 57% Happiness 46% 44% 48% 48% 44% 40% 46% 44% 50% 52% 43% Stress 44% 42% 47% 44% 44% 52% 35% 45% 43% 44% 50% Worry 38% 34% 41% 34% 42% 41% 32% 43% 36% 39% 28% Anxiety 29% 27% 31% 28% 30% 31% 27% 31% 34% 24% 27% Boredom 22% 23% 21% 19% 25% 19% 18% 24% 20% 21% 16% Physical Pain 21% 19% 23% 19% 23% 19% 24% 24% 20% 20% 18% Sadness 20% 17% 23% 18% 22% 21% 17% 22% 18% 20% 16% Anger 15% 14% 15% 14% 15% 17% 10% 15% 14% 18% 18% Fear 9% 8% 10% 6% 11% 12% 6% 12% 8% 5% 2% Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: November 2014
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- 20. 20 Economic RecoveryIndex Shopping for Christmas Our findings bode well going into the peak Christmas shopping period, although consumers will likely spend from incomes and savings than from borrowings this year. There’s still a positive momentum showing up in car and house sales, but consumer sentiment is fragile at an emotional level. We hope this edition of the Economic Recovery Index has given you some food for thought about the opportunities that lie ahead – we’d be happy to share other ideas with you on how to leverage the new momentum. For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm
- 21. we ask betterquestions so you get better answers Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/
- 22. Amárach Research andChilli Pepper Marketing have created the inaugural Loyalty Performance Index (LPI) and report, which is the first ever independent report on loyalty programmes in Ireland. The full report can now be downloaded here: http://www.amarach.com/services/loyalty-performance-research.htm This unique research model has been developed to identify loyalty winners and provide useful benchmarking data for any Brands currently running or planning to embark on a loyalty programme. If Brands would like to arrange a confidential briefing on the Loyalty Performance Index, then contact either: Gerard O’Neill (gerard.oneill@amarach.com) or Leanne Papaioannou (leanne@chillipepper.ie)
- 23. Trends Report e.info@amarach.com t. 01 410 5200 w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch