Economic Recovery Index reaches new high

1
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing November 2014
© Amárach Research

2
Making Progress It’s only when you look back that you see how far you’ve come; and so it is this month: the lowest point ever reached by our Economic Recovery Index was in November 2010 – just four years ago. This month, the Economic Recovery Index has reached its highest level since we began measuring it back in April 2009 – a fivefold increase since November 2010 to be precise. Some measures remain fragile nevertheless – like the emotional wellbeing of the population: we usually see a mild form of ‘seasonal affective disorder’ set in right about now… The good news is that consumer willingness to spend is back to its recent record high, which bodes well coming up to Christmas.

3
The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out over five years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to November 2014. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 5th-12th November 2014 inclusive. See how bad it was four years ago: http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amarach-recovery-indicator-november-2010

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Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). Our Index has once again reached a new record level:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, November 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Apr '09
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan '12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
November 2010 was the lowest point in the ERI, 4 years on it’s at its highest ever…

6
A Matter of Measurement
Oct ’14: 18%
Nov ’14: 17%
Oct ’14: 28%
Nov ’14: 29%
Oct ’14: 38%
Nov ’14: 37%
Oct ’14: 14%
Nov ’14: 16%
Oct ’14: 2%
Nov ’14: 2% Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) A solid majority of Irish people continue to say that the economy is improving:

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ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? % choosing each statement:
%
The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse
The economic situation is bad but has stabilized
The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement
The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement
The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered
Nov-09
51
27
21
1
0
17.8
Nov-10
80
12
6
1
1
7.3
Nov-11
57
24
17
2
0
16.3
Nov-12
47
30
20
3
0
19.6
Nov-13
26
36
32
5
0
29.6
Oct-14
18
28
38
14
2
38.3
Nov-14
17
29
37
16
2
38.9
the ERI has risen fivefold in the four years since November 2010

8
Recovery – Four Years On
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? (by sex, class, family, income)
November 2014
TOTAL
Male
Female
ABC1
C2DE
Child’n under 17
Child’n over 17
Incomeunder €30k
Income €30-60k
Income €60-90k
Income €90k+
1000
494
506
477
523
382
380
348
310
108
57
The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse
17%
18%
15%
13%
20%
18%
17%
22%
15%
10%
8%
The economic situation is bad but has stabilized
29%
26%
29%
26%
30%
30%
25%
29%
28%
30%
22%
The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement
37%
32%
39%
40%
32%
34%
40%
35%
37%
36%
45%
The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement
16%
19%
11%
16%
14%
12%
16%
11%
17%
22%
17%
The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered from the recession
2%
2%
1%
2%
1%
1%
*
1%
1%
2%
6%
ERI Score
38.9
40.1
37.7
41.9
36.1
35.9
39.9
34.4
40.8
45.7
48.2

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Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me
Nov-09
41
45
51
52
Nov-10
18
32
33
45
Nov-11
23
34
42
45
Nov-12
27
34
44
43
Nov-13
36
42
49
44
Oct-14
41
43
51
40
Nov-14
40
38
52
39
while ‘macro sentiment’ remains positive, ‘micro sentiment’ is still weak

11
Still Optimistic
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, class, family, income): “Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time”
November 2014
TOTAL
Male
Female
ABC1
C2DE
Child’n under 17
Child’n over 17
Incomeunder €30k
Income €30-60k
Income €60-90k
Income €90k+
Weighted Sample
1000
494
506
477
523
382
380
348
310
108
57
Strongly Agree
11%
13%
9%
13%
10%
10%
9%
8%
13%
17%
23%
Slightly Agree
29%
29%
28%
33%
25%
28%
27%
24%
32%
37%
33%
Neither/Nor
15%
13%
18%
16%
15%
15%
14%
17%
13%
10%
11%
Slightly Disagree
18%
19%
18%
16%
21%
18%
20%
22%
17%
19%
9%
Strongly Disagree
19%
21%
17%
17%
21%
21%
23%
22%
19%
14%
22%

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Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
%
I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago
I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession
My main financial priority is to pay off my debts as quickly as possible
I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I need to
Nov-09
16
27
62
28
Nov-10
11
24
50
20
Nov-11
15
26
55
23
Nov-12
16
25
53
22
Nov-13
22
24
54
26
Oct-14
23
25
57
25
Nov-14
26
24
54
28
the % of consumers relaxed about spending is back to peak levels

13
Purses & Wallets
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”
November 2014
TOTAL
Male
Female
ABC1
C2DE
Child’n under 17
Child’n over 17
Incomeunder €30k
Income €30-60k
Income €60-90k
Income €90k+
Weighted Sample
1000
494
506
477
523
382
380
348
310
108
57
Strongly Agree
9%
10%
7%
9%
8%
8%
7%
7%
9%
14%
14%
Slightly Agree
18%
17%
18%
22%
13%
16%
18%
9%
21%
23%
31%
Neither/Nor
20%
20%
20%
24%
16%
19%
21%
16%
18%
27%
23%
Slightly Disagree
22%
23%
22%
20%
25%
22%
22%
28%
21%
18%
11%
Strongly Disagree
30%
28%
32%
23%
36%
34%
30%
39%
28%
18%
21%

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Consumer Sentiment Summary Table III
%
I always buy the lowest price products or services
I am always on the lookout for opportunities to switch to cheaper suppliers
I have more choice than before when it comes to products and services
I always buy Irish when I can
Apr-13
57
71
52
52
May-13
58
69
54
54
Jun-13
55
70
55
51
Jul-13
56
70
52
53
Aug-13
57
70
53
53
Sep-13
59
72
53
54
Oct-13
58
69
52
51
Nov-13
56
69
55
51
Dec-13
54
68
54
53
Jan-14
59
74
56
54
Feb-14
56
70
57
52
Mar-14
57
68
56
48
Apr-14
56
69
54
50
May-14
60
72
55
51
Jun-14
55
70
58
52
Jul-14
58
72
58
48
Aug-14
56
71
60
51
Sep-14
55
74
61
53
Oct-14
56
68
58
51
Nov-14
58
67
57
52

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The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr '09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Enjoyment
Happiness
Stress
Worry

17
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2014
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr '09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Anxiety
Sadness
Pain
Anger

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Mood Groups
November 2014
TOTAL
Male
Female
ABC1
C2DE
Child’n under 17
Child’n over 17
Incomeunder €30k
Income €30-60k
Income €60-90k
Income €90k+
1000
494
506
477
523
382
380
348
310
108
57
Enjoyment
48%
46%
50%
51%
45%
43%
53%
47%
49%
59%
57%
Happiness
46%
44%
48%
48%
44%
40%
46%
44%
50%
52%
43%
Stress
44%
42%
47%
44%
44%
52%
35%
45%
43%
44%
50%
Worry
38%
34%
41%
34%
42%
41%
32%
43%
36%
39%
28%
Anxiety
29%
27%
31%
28%
30%
31%
27%
31%
34%
24%
27%
Boredom
22%
23%
21%
19%
25%
19%
18%
24%
20%
21%
16%
Physical Pain
21%
19%
23%
19%
23%
19%
24%
24%
20%
20%
18%
Sadness
20%
17%
23%
18%
22%
21%
17%
22%
18%
20%
16%
Anger
15%
14%
15%
14%
15%
17%
10%
15%
14%
18%
18%
Fear
9%
8%
10%
6%
11%
12%
6%
12%
8%
5%
2%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: November 2014

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Shopping for Christmas Our findings bode well going into the peak Christmas shopping period, although consumers will likely spend from incomes and savings than from borrowings this year. There’s still a positive momentum showing up in car and house sales, but consumer sentiment is fragile at an emotional level. We hope this edition of the Economic Recovery Index has given you some food for thought about the opportunities that lie ahead – we’d be happy to share other ideas with you on how to leverage the new momentum.
For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

we ask better questions so you get better answers
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Trends Report
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Economic Recovery Index reaches new high

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