Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2015

1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
February 2015
© Amárach Research

Modest Momentum
Two months in to the new year and our
Economic Recovery Index confirms a ‘weak
positive’ momentum across the consumer
landscape.
While the general economic outlook continues
to improve (though some measures have not
returned to their late 2014 peak), the key
behavioural indicators (spend, saving,
borrowing) remain mixed at best.
Still, spring is coming, and with it we can
expect a seasonal boost in the emotional
zeitgeist of the nation – this time it might just
translate through to a spending boost as well.

The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out nearly six years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
February 2015.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 9th to 16th February 2015 inclusive.
See how bad it was five years ago:
http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amarach-recovery-indicator-march-2010

Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
Our Index remains at a plateau evident since late Q4 2014:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, February 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Apr'09
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'10
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'11
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'12
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'13
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'14
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'15
the ERI has lost momentum at the start of 2015…

A Matter of Measurement
Jan ’15: 17% Feb ’15: 16%
Jan ’15: 29% Feb ’15: 33%
Jan ’15: 38% Feb ’15: 37%
Jan ’15: 16% Feb ’15: 13%
Jan ’15: 1% Feb ’15: 1%
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
A solid majority of Irish people still continues to say that the economy is improving:

ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Feb-10 39 34 25 2 0 22.7
Feb-11 58 27 14 1 0 18.0
Feb-12 55 25 18 2 0 16.9
Feb-13 42 32 22 4 0 21.8
Feb-14 21 39 33 7 0 31.7
Jan-15 17 29 38 16 1 38.5
Feb-15 16 33 37 13 1 37.4
the ERI still remains below its late 2014 peak…

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
(by sex, age, Dublin, class)
February 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1000 486 514 153 275 228 157 187 305 500 500
The economic situation
in Ireland is getting
worse
16% 16% 16% 11% 17% 18% 16% 15% 14% 13% 18%
is bad but has stabilized
32% 34% 30% 38% 32% 34% 33% 24% 35% 33% 31%
is bad but showing a
few signs of
improvement
36% 34% 37% 30% 35% 32% 42% 41% 35% 36% 36%
is getting better and
showing clear signs of
improvement
13% 13% 12% 15% 11% 13% 7% 17% 12% 15% 10%
is good and almost fully
recovered from the
recession
1% 2% 1% 0 * 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1%
ERI Score 37.4 38.1 36.7 36.6 35.1 37.4 36.2 42.4 37.4 40.0 34.8
Some Progress

Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am optimistic
in spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
Feb-10 42 47 56 53
Feb-11 24 37 44 45
Feb-12 26 41 44 49
Feb-13 27 36 43 42
Feb-14 38 41 52 47
Jan-15 38 40 50 40
Feb-15 42 42 53 45
overall financial wellbeing indicators have improved…

Nearly Over?
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, Dublin, class):
“Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in twelve months’ time”
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1000 486 514 153 275 228 157 187 305 500 500
Strongly Agree 9% 11% 8% 11% 8% 8% 7% 13% 12% 12% 6%
Slightly Agree 33% 32% 33% 29% 33% 34% 32% 34% 33% 37% 29%
Neither/Nor 17% 17% 17% 23% 18% 18% 15% 11% 18% 17% 17%
Slightly Disagree 20% 21% 20% 19% 19% 20% 23% 20% 20% 17% 23%
Strongly Disagree 16% 16% 16% 10% 14% 17% 19% 18% 12% 12% 19%

Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of the
recession
My main
financial priority
is to pay off my
debts as quickly
as possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Feb-10 18 26 62 29
Feb-11 14 27 61 24
Feb-12 17 29 57 26
Feb-13 16 26 54 24
Feb-14 22 25 58 24
Jan-15 25 23 54 26
Feb-15 27 28 53 26
there has been a recovery in % willing to borrow and % saving more

Serious Savers
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am saving a lot more because of the recession”
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 486 514 153 275 228 157 187 305 500 500
Strongly Agree 9% 9% 9% 17% 6% 8% 10% 6% 9% 10% 8%
Slightly Agree 19% 19% 19% 24% 24% 16% 14% 16% 16% 21% 17%
Neither/Nor 25% 25% 24% 28% 26% 27% 17% 24% 27% 25% 25%
Slightly Disagree 17% 17% 17% 14% 17% 16% 16% 20% 19% 17% 17%
Strongly Disagree 28% 28% 28% 11% 23% 32% 41% 34% 26% 25% 31%

The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2015
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

The Mood of the Nation – III
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1000 486 514 153 275 228 157 187 305 500 1000
Enjoyment 50% 50% 50% 54% 43% 45% 50% 62% 53% 54% 50%
Happiness 48% 44% 51% 57% 49% 40% 46% 47% 50% 52% 48%
Stress 37% 35% 39% 48% 42% 43% 30% 20% 37% 37% 37%
Worry 30% 25% 34% 35% 29% 33% 29% 22% 32% 30% 30%
Boredom 27% 27% 26% 44% 25% 25% 27% 17% 27% 25% 27%
Anxiety 25% 22% 27% 32% 23% 28% 21% 19% 27% 25% 25%
Physical Pain 19% 17% 21% 18% 18% 16% 18% 24% 19% 17% 19%
Sadness 14% 11% 17% 20% 14% 14% 12% 13% 16% 13% 14%
Loneliness 13% 11% 16% 17% 13% 13% 16% 8% 14% 12% 13%
Anger 12% 12% 13% 17% 16% 13% 7% 7% 12% 11% 12%
Fear 9% 7% 10% 13% 10% 8% 7% 6% 9% 8% 9%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes:

Carry Forward
Our ERI survey shows the consumer
economy to be firing on a few engines, but by
no means all of them.
We can expect to see more momentum in the
coming months as falling unemployment
translates into higher spending power, but
even those already in jobs will be more
positively disposed to loosening the purse
and wallet strings.
We hope you find this edition of the
Economic Recovery Index helpful and
please do get in contact if you want to
discuss how it can be applied to your brand
planning requirements in 2015.
For more on the ERI see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

we ask better questions
so you get better answers
Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/

Trends Report
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/

Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2015

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (20)

Viewers also liked

Viewers also liked (8)

Similar to Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2015

Similar to Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2015 (13)

More from Amarach Research

More from Amarach Research (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2015