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Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2013
The Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index report from November 2013 indicates a positive trend in consumer sentiment and economic recovery, reaching a record index level of 29.6. The report, tracking emotions and financial resilience since April 2009, highlights a significant increase in optimism among consumers regarding spending and personal financial situations. As the report sets the stage for potential growth entering 2014, it emphasizes the gradual alignment of macroeconomic sentiment with consumer behavior.
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Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2013
- 1. Economic Recovery Index AnAmárach Research Briefing November 2013 (including analysis by main paper; TV provider; mobile network) © Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index 1
- 2. Momentum Success in businessand marketing is all about momentum, and right now our Economic Recovery Index is gathering momentum, reaching in November its highest level for the second month in a row. In recent months we have seen a gradual improvement in general sentiment about the economy – but in November we have seen a gradual improvement in sentiment about the consumer, including spending intentions. It’s still too early to call, but a gradual alignment of positive macro sentiment with positive micro behaviour could finally deliver a pick up in consumer and retail spending. Fingers crossed for a positive turn going into 2014. Economic Recovery Index 2
- 3. The Emotional Recovery Wehave been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out four years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to November 2013. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 11th-18th November 2013 inclusive. The full data series is on our website – if you want us to conduct additional analyses (by brands etc) then feel free to get in touch. Economic Recovery Index 3
- 4. The Economic RecoveryIndex Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). Our Index rose further to 29.6 in November 2013, breaking all records since we began tracking the mood of the nation in April 2009: 35 30 25 20 15 10 Oct Nov Sept July Aug June Apr May Mar Feb Dec Jan'13 Oct Nov Sept July Aug June Apr May Mar Feb Jan '12 Dec Oct Nov Sept July Aug June Apr May Mar Feb Dec Jan'11 Oct Nov Sept July Aug June Apr May Mar Feb Dec Jan'10 Oct Nov Aug Sept Jun July 0 Apr '09 5 Source: Amárach Research, November 2013 Economic Recovery Index 4
- 5. A Matter ofMeasurement Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) The percentage thinking ‘things are getting worse’ is less than a third the level three years ago: Oct ’13: 0% Oct ’13: 4% Oct ’13: 32% Oct ’13: 32% Nov ’13: 26% Oct ’13: 32% Economic Recovery Index Nov ’13: 0% Nov ’13: 5% Nov ’13: 32% Nov ’13: 36% 5
- 6. ERI Summary TablesI Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? % choosing each statement: % Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Oct-13 Nov-13 The economic The economic The economic The economic The economic situation is situation is bad situation is Economic situation in situation is bad getting better but showing a good and Recovery Ireland is but has and showing few signs of almost fully Index getting worse stabilized clear signs of improvement recovered improvement 51 27 21 1 0 17.8 80 12 6 1 1 7.3 57 24 17 2 0 16.3 47 30 20 3 0 19.6 32 32 32 4 0 27.4 26 36 32 5 0 29.6 Economic Recovery Index 6
- 7. ERI Summary TablesII % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Oct-13 Nov-13 Economic Recovery Index 41 18 23 27 30 36 I feel I am financially I am optimistic comfortable in spite of the enough to current make it economic through the situation recession 45 32 34 34 36 42 51 33 42 44 44 49 Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me 52 45 45 43 43 44 7
- 8. ERI Summary TablesIII % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Oct-13 Nov-13 I am more I am saving a My main I would be relaxed about lot more than financial priority happy to spending before is to pay off my borrow money money than I because of the debts as quickly from a bank if I was a few recession as possible need to months ago 16 27 62 28 11 24 50 20 15 26 55 23 16 25 53 22 18 24 57 24 22 24 54 26 Economic Recovery Index 8
- 9. Financial Resilience I %of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “I feel I am financially strong enough to make it through the recession” November 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 Weighted Sample 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523 Strongly Agree 9% 8% 10% 11% 8% 6% 9% 11% 14% 13% 6% Slightly Agree 33% 37% 29% 31% 39% 30% 23% 36% 34% 40% 26% Neither/Nor 14% 18% 10% 15% 15% 16% 13% 12% 14% 16% 12% Slightly Disagree 21% 18% 24% 25% 19% 24% 24% 16% 18% 17% 25% Strongly Disagree 20% 18% 23% 14% 17% 22% 28% 21% 18% 13% 27% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, November 2013 9
- 10. Financial Resilience II %of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by newspaper/tv/mobile network): “I feel I am financially strong enough to make it through the recession” Irish Irish Irish November 2013 TOTAL Times Indepe Daily ndent Mail Sky UPC O2 Weighted Sample Vodafone Meteor 3 EMobile 1000 170 232 83 426 234 237 345 194 79 46 Strongly Agree 9% 13% 8% 9% 8% 10% 8% 10% 9% 12% 4% Slightly Agree 33% 40% 39% 27% 31% 38% 33% 30% 32% 44% 31% Neither/Nor 14% 15% 15% 19% 16% 12% 15% 13% 13% 8% 29% Slightly Disagree 21% 15% 20% 21% 19% 21% 21% 25% 20% 17% 15% Strongly Disagree 20% 15% 17% 20% 24% 16% 20% 21% 21% 18% 16% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, November 2013 10
- 11. Spendthrift I % ofIrish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am more relaxed about spending money than a few months ago” November 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 Weighted Sample 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523 Strongly Agree 6% 6% 5% 9% 9% 3% 4% 3% 7% 6% 6% Slightly Agree 16% 18% 14% 18% 18% 14% 14% 15% 18% 19% 12% Neither/Nor 19% 22% 16% 17% 16% 20% 14% 24% 22% 23% 15% Slightly Disagree 26% 24% 27% 28% 28% 28% 22% 22% 23% 27% 25% Strongly Disagree 33% 28% 38% 25% 27% 34% 46% 36% 29% 24% 41% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, November 2013 11
- 12. Spendthrift II % ofIrish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by newspaper/tv/mobile network): “I am more relaxed about spending money than a few months ago” Irish Irish Irish November 2013 TOTAL Times Indepe Daily ndent Mail Sky UPC O2 Weighted Sample Vodafone Meteor 3 EMobile 1000 170 232 83 426 234 237 345 194 79 46 Strongly Agree 9% 7% 9% 5% 7% 6% 6% 6% 9% 4% 9% Slightly Agree 20% 17% 19% 15% 18% 18% 12% 14% 24% 18% 20% Neither/Nor 22% 19% 15% 17% 19% 19% 18% 17% 16% 22% 22% Slightly Disagree 26% 23% 31% 26% 27% 25% 24% 28% 31% 24% 26% Strongly Disagree 24% 33% 25% 35% 28% 32% 38% 32% 20% 32% 24% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, November 2013 12
- 13. The Mood ofthe Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2013 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry 0% Apr '09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov 10% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, November 2013 13
- 14. The Mood ofthe Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2013 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger 0% Apr '09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov 5% Source: Amárach Research, November 2013 Economic Recovery Index 14
- 15. Emotions Summary Table Didyou experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: % Enjoyment Happiness Nov-09 50 51 50 42 33 20 21 18 Nov-10 45 48 51 46 38 24 21 25 Nov-11 53 50 48 45 34 21 24 18 Nov-12 53 49 46 43 31 21 25 18 Oct-13 54 50 47 43 32 23 26 16 Nov-13 53 49 45 40 34 22 25 18 Economic Recovery Index Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger 15
- 16. Changing Moods I Didyou experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: November 2013 November 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523 Enjoyment 53% 52% 54% 50% 53% 48% 48% 63% 53% 59% 48% Happiness 49% 50% 48% 59% 55% 45% 44% 44% 50% 56% 44% Stress 45% 43% 48% 56% 48% 54% 47% 29% 47% 45% 45% Worry 40% 38% 41% 45% 42% 43% 38% 33% 41% 40% 39% Anxiety 34% 30% 37% 36% 34% 35% 34% 29% 33% 33% 34% Boredom 27% 28% 26% 52% 31% 22% 19% 17% 29% 26% 28% Physical Pain 25% 22% 29% 28% 21% 20% 27% 31% 29% 24% 26% Sadness 22% 19% 26% 30% 24% 19% 18% 21% 20% 23% 22% Anger 18% 19% 17% 26% 18% 23% 19% 8% 20% 18% 18% Fear 14% 14% 13% 14% 17% 15% 16% 8% 15% 13% 14% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, November 2013 16
- 17. Changing Moods II Didyou experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: November 2013 (by newspaper/tv service/mobile network) Irish Irish Irish November 2013 TOTAL Times Indepe Daily ndent Mail Sky UPC O2 Vodafone Meteor 3 EMobile Weighted Sample 1000 170 232 83 426 234 237 345 194 79 46 Enjoyment 53% 61% 57% 59% 53% 55% 53% 52% 54% 58% 42% Happiness 49% 52% 47% 58% 47% 54% 51% 46% 54% 58% 39% Stress 45% 43% 40% 54% 48% 43% 47% 43% 47% 52% 44% Worry 40% 44% 41% 49% 40% 40% 37% 42% 42% 38% 35% Anxiety 34% 35% 32% 40% 35% 34% 38% 32% 31% 36% 30% Boredom 27% 24% 22% 26% 25% 28% 25% 25% 32% 39% 17% Physical Pain 25% 26% 21% 25% 24% 28% 25% 25% 26% 22% 27% Sadness 22% 25% 20% 31% 21% 22% 22% 20% 23% 22% 35% Anger 18% 15% 14% 26% 19% 16% 19% 15% 19% 16% 28% Fear 14% 18% 12% 20% 12% 14% 14% 13% 12% 13% 16% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, November 2013 17
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- 19. Trends Report Call uson 01 410 5200 if you want your hack your way to growth in 2014: e. info@amarach.com w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm