How do AIB, Tesco, Vodafone, Electric Ireland, Boots, Axa and VHI customers feel about the economy and their shopping intentions?

1. 1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
February 2017: Focus on Key Brands

2. 2Economic Recovery Index
A Spring Step
Our February report takes up to the start of
spring, and the good news is that a) there
isn’t any bad news, and b) there is even
some good news.
That said, as we track our Economic
Recovery Index in Q1 2017 there are some
signs of weakening sentiment about the
economy, though personal consumer
sentiment has even picked up a little.
More worrying, the level of ‘happiness’ and
‘enjoyment’ is at its lowest since we started
tracking back in April 2009: perhaps the
psychological impact of the recession is felt
at a lag?

3. 3Economic Recovery Index
A Special Focus This Month
Every month we take a look at our PlanR
and ERI findings through a different prism
beyond standard demographics.
Sometimes we look at entire sectors
(groceries last month, banks and mobile in
previous months) but this time we looked at
leading brands across the eight sectors that
we track every month on PlanR.
We hope you find it interesting – some of the
results are rally quite surprising!

4. 4Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out over six years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009
to February 2017.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 15th to 22nd February 2017 inclusive.
See how bad it was at one of the lowest points
seven years ago:
http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amrach-recovery-indicator-february-2010

5. Economic Recovery Index

6. 6Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, February 2017
Our Economic Recovery Index has been flat for about 18 months

7. 7Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Feb-10 39 34 25 2 0 22.7
Feb-11 58 27 14 1 0 18.0
Feb-12 55 25 18 2 0 16.9
Feb-13 42 32 22 4 0 21.8
Feb-14 21 39 33 7 0 31.7
Feb-15 16 33 37 13 1 37.4
Feb-16 12 28 35 21 4 43.4
Jan-17 16 28 32 20 3 41.9
Feb-17 14 27 33 23 3 43.1
Our ERI is still below its level of a year ago

8. 8Economic Recovery Index
ERI by Customers of Selected Brands
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement x Customers of Selected Brands:
VHI customers are most optimistic about the economic outlook
TOTAL AIB Vodafone Tesco
Electric
Ireland
Topaz Axa Boots VHI
The economic situation in
Ireland is getting worse
13% 15% 13% 12% 16% 15% 13% 11% 8%
The economic situation is
bad but has stabilized
25% 26% 26% 25% 25% 26% 25% 24% 27%
The economic situation is
bad but showing a few
signs of improvement
30% 28% 31% 30% 33% 32% 38% 27% 31%
The economic situation is
getting better and
showing clear signs of
improvement
21% 20% 23% 24% 19% 19% 18% 25% 26%
The economic situation is
good and almost fully
recovered from the
recession
3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% 1% 3% 4%

9. Consumer Impact

10. 10Economic Recovery Index
Recession, Resilience & Recovery
We started calling our Index the ‘Recovery
Index’ back in April 2009
Over these past seven years we have tracked
the highs and lows (and very lows) in terms of
the mood of the nation and the impact on
consumer spending, borrowing and saving
intentions.
We’ve seen remarkable resilience on the part
of the Irish people when it comes to ‘getting
on’ with their lives, despite macro-economic
uncertainties.
In this section we look at some of the key
indicators when it comes to consumer
spending and saving intentions.

11. 11Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the worst
of the recession
in 12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to make
it through the
recession
I am optimistic in
spite of the
current economic
situation
Right now it seems
like the recession is
affecting other
people more than it
is affecting me
Feb-10 42 47 56 53
Feb-11 24 37 44 45
Feb-12 26 41 44 49
Feb-13 27 36 43 42
Feb-14 38 41 52 47
Feb-15 42 42 53 45
Feb-16 41 44 55 46
Jan-17 31 44 49 40
Feb-17 38 47 53 43
Despite a flat ERI, other economic indicators have bounced back

12. 12Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more relaxed
about spending
money than I was a
few months ago
I am saving a lot
more than before
because of the
recession
My main financial
priority is to pay off
my debts as quickly
as possible
I would be happy
to borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Feb-10 18 26 62 29
Feb-11 14 27 61 24
Feb-12 17 29 57 26
Feb-13 16 26 54 24
Feb-14 22 25 58 24
Feb-15 27 28 53 26
Feb-16 30 26 56 26
Jan-17 28 28 55 33
Feb-17 37 33 55 40
Our spending intention indicator has picked up strongly along with others

13. 13Economic Recovery Index
Spending Intentions by Selected Brands
Agreement with statement: ‘I am more relaxed about spending money than I was
a few months ago’ x Customers of Selected Brands:
Boots customers are more likely to agree strongly they are ‘relaxed about spending’
TOTAL AIB Vodafone Tesco
Electric
Ireland
Topaz Axa Boots VHI
Strongly Agree 10% 10% 9% 9% 7% 8% 11% 14% 12%
Slightly Agree 26% 26% 27% 26% 26% 33% 28% 28% 31%
Neither/Nor 25% 26% 24% 29% 25% 21% 23% 24% 26%
Slightly Disagree 18% 16% 20% 18% 18% 21% 20% 18% 13%
Strongly Disagree 16% 17% 17% 14% 20% 13% 13% 10% 14%

14. 14Economic Recovery Index
Debt Repayment Intentions by Selected Brands
Agreement with statement: ‘My main financial priority is to pay off my debts as
quickly as possible’ x Customers of Selected Brands:
Topaz customers are more likely to agree strongly debt repayment is a priority
TOTAL AIB Vodafone Tesco
Electric
Ireland
Topaz Axa Boots VHI
Strongly Agree 29% 25% 31% 31% 29% 33% 28% 32% 29%
Slightly Agree 26% 25% 29% 21% 24% 29% 24% 28% 32%
Neither/Nor 19% 22% 16% 20% 18% 16% 17% 18% 15%
Slightly Disagree 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 8% 12% 4% 5%
Strongly Disagree 5% 7% 5% 5% 5% 4% 7% 4% 4%

15. Mood of the Nation

16. 16Economic Recovery Index
The Real Mood of the Nation
When we started measuring and reporting the
Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be
more than just another ‘confidence index’.
We therefore set out to measure the full
spectrum of emotions experienced by Irish
consumers – positive as well as negative ones
– in order to provide a unique insight into the
real ‘mood’ of the nation.
Lately some interesting but rather strange
things have emerged: our levels of stress
and anger have fallen to their lowest levels
ever, but our level of happiness is trending
downwards as well, despite the recovery.
The following charts show the trends to
February 2017.

17. 17Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2017
Source: Amárach Research, February 2017
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'16
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'17
Feb
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

18. 18Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2017
Source: Amárach Research, February 2017
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'16
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'17
Feb
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

19. 19Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – III
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: February 2017
TOTAL AIB Vodafone Tesco
Electric
Ireland
Topaz Axa Boots VHI
Happiness 42% 41% 47% 44% 44% 43% 46% 47% 45%
Enjoyment 41% 41% 40% 36% 43% 43% 47% 42% 46%
Stress 30% 31% 29% 27% 33% 31% 30% 33% 33%
Worry 25% 24% 22% 23% 27% 25% 23% 26% 30%
Anxiety 22% 23% 19% 20% 24% 20% 22% 26% 23%
Physical Pain 20% 17% 18% 18% 21% 19% 20% 15% 22%
Boredom 19% 20% 16% 20% 19% 17% 13% 21% 18%
Sadness 18% 18% 15% 18% 20% 17% 14% 16% 18%
Anger 11% 9% 8% 9% 14% 9% 13% 12% 9%
Loneliness 13% 13% 11% 12% 16% 12% 7% 14% 13%
Fear 6% 8% 4% 4% 7% 4% 8% 7% 8%
Vodafone & Boots customers are happiest, AIB customers not so much…

20. Amárach Outlook

21. 21Economic Recovery Index
Get Planning
We’ll keep tracking its progress into 2017 –
and we’ll keep you posted about Ireland’s
consumer needs.
We hope you find this edition of the
Economic Recovery Index helpful and
please do get in contact if you want to
discuss how it can be applied to your brand
planning requirements in 2017 and beyond.
With Easter around the corner there’s lots
to be doing as 2017 gathers momentum.
For more on the ERI (including over 7 years worth of data) see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

22. 22Economic Recovery Index
PlanR Database
We survey 1,000 adults every month to create the Economic Recovery Index.
We also track dozens of data series relating to customer experience, spending
levels, and switching intentions also as part of the same survey
You can view the full list (as well as
a free dashboard) here:
Contact us for subscription details
and information about special offers
and join more than two dozen other
organisations using their own
customised planning dashboard.
http://getplanr.com/planr-data

23. Trends Report
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/