Our latest guide to the mood and behaviour of Ireland's recovering consumers.

1. 1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
May 2015
© Amárach Research

2. 2Economic Recovery Index
Better Than Before
We have been measuring the Economic
Recovery Index every month since April 2009:
a lot has happened in the meantime.
By a happy coincidence, our Index recently
reached its highest level yet, finally breaking
through the ‘40 barrier’ – and it remains close
to that peak this month.
So all-in-all a very positive picture indeed, and
a much better place to be in when compared
to some of the darker days we tracked back in
2009 and 2010…

3. 3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out nearly six years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009
to May 2015.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 12th to 20th May 2015 inclusive.
See how bad it was nearly six years ago:
http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/the-economic-recovery-index-july-results-2009

4. Economic Recovery Index

5. 5Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
Having broken through the 40 mark last month, the ERI fell back a little this month:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, May 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Apr'09
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
the ERI has held on to gains since the start of the year…

6. 6Economic Recovery Index
A Matter of Measurement
Apr ’15: 14% May ’15: 14%
Apr ’15: 30% May ’15: 34%
Apr ’15: 37% May ’15: 34%
Apr ’15: 17% May ’15: 17%
Apr ’15: 2% May ’15: 1%
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
A solid majority of Irish people now say that the economy is improving:

7. 7Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
May-09 57 24 18 1 0 16.0
May-10 36 35 27 2 0 23.8
May-11 40 33 24 2 1 22.1
May-12 48 26 24 2 0 20.2
May-13 44 29 24 2 1 21.3
May-14 24 32 36 8 0 32.4
Apr-15 14 30 37 17 2 40.2
May-15 14 34 34 17 1 39.4
May 2015 remains close to last month’s peak, more than twice six years ago…

8. Consumer Impact

9. 9Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am optimistic
in spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
May-09 41 48 59 62
May-10 40 44 53 51
May-11 28 40 53 50
May-12 25 38 47 45
May-13 25 39 45 46
May-14 38 39 49 45
Apr-15 46 45 57 44
May-15 39 43 52 41
key financial wellbeing indicators fell back a little from April’s peaks…

10. 10Economic Recovery Index
Unevenly Distributed
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, Dublin, class):
“Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me”
Source: Amárach Research, May 2015
May 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 540
Strongly Agree 13% 13% 13% 19% 11% 11% 9% 15% 14% 18% 9%
Slightly Agree 28% 26% 30% 31% 28% 26% 22% 31% 31% 29% 27%
Neither/Nor 21% 22% 19% 19% 22% 24% 21% 18% 24% 20% 21%
Slightly Disagree 20% 20% 19% 17% 19% 22% 20% 20% 16% 19% 20%
Strongly Disagree 14% 15% 14% 6% 15% 13% 26% 14% 10% 10% 18%

11. 11Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of the
recession
My main
financial priority
is to pay off my
debts as quickly
as possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
May-09 15
May-10 19 26 61 28
May-11 17 26 61 26
May-12 18 27 56 27
May-13 18 24 56 24
May-14 23 23 59 25
Apr-15 30 26 51 28
May-15 27 24 51 24
the % more relaxed about spending remains well above trend…

12. 12Economic Recovery Index
Relaxed Spenders
“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”
% Agree: April 2009 to May 2015
Source: Amárach Research, May 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May

13. 13Economic Recovery Index
Happy Borrowers
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I need to”
Source: Amárach Research, May 2015
May 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 540
Strongly Agree 7% 9% 5% 6% 9% 9% 4% 6% 8% 8% 6%
Slightly Agree 17% 20% 14% 17% 18% 21% 19% 13% 23% 20% 15%
Neither/Nor 15% 17% 14% 13% 17% 21% 13% 13% 16% 16% 15%
Slightly Disagree 22% 19% 26% 27% 21% 24% 25% 19% 21% 24% 22%
Strongly Disagree 33% 31% 35% 27% 28% 22% 37% 48% 28% 29% 37%

14. Mood of the Nation

15. 15Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to May 2015
Source: Amárach Research, May 2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

16. 16Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to May 2015
Source: Amárach Research, May 2015
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

17. 17Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – III
Source: Amárach Research, May 2015
May 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 540
Enjoyment 46% 46% 47% 48% 36% 40% 49% 57% 42% 50% 44%
Happiness 43% 41% 45% 50% 38% 39% 44% 44% 42% 47% 40%
Stress 38% 35% 41% 51% 38% 40% 40% 27% 36% 39% 37%
Worry 32% 27% 37% 36% 33% 34% 37% 25% 36% 29% 36%
Anxiety 27% 23% 30% 42% 26% 24% 25% 20% 27% 26% 27%
Physical Pain 25% 26% 25% 19% 24% 24% 24% 32% 26% 21% 29%
Boredom 22% 22% 23% 40% 24% 22% 19% 12% 24% 21% 24%
Sadness 15% 13% 18% 19% 17% 16% 18% 11% 14% 12% 19%
Loneliness 14% 13% 15% 20% 12% 15% 17% 9% 15% 11% 16%
Anger 13% 14% 12% 12% 18% 16% 12% 8% 13% 11% 15%
Fear 8% 7% 9% 14% 9% 7% 8% 4% 9% 8% 8%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes:

18. Amárach Outlook

19. 19Economic Recovery Index
Momentum
After six long years, it’s good to see real
momentum coming through in our Economic
Recovery Index – consumers are loosening
their purse and wallet strings, and there
seems to be a genuine willingness to spend.
We’ll keep tracking the recovery’s progress in
the months ahead – and keep you posted
about Ireland’s consumers & their needs.
We hope you find this edition of the
Economic Recovery Index helpful and
please do get in contact if you want to
discuss how it can be applied to your brand
planning requirements in 2015.
For more on the ERI see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

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21. Trends Report
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/