The document presents the Economic Recovery Index (ERI) results from April 2009 to December 2017, tracking Ireland's emotional and economic recovery from recession. The ERI shows an improvement in public sentiment regarding the economy since its lowest point, although recent data indicate some stagnation in sentiment during 2017. The report emphasizes the correlation between consumer confidence and spending, particularly as it relates to overall economic perceptions and brands.

1. 1
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
December 2017

2. 22
We have been reporting our monthly Economic
Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out eight years ago to assess the psychological
impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional
progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic
progress’.
This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index
results from April 2009 to December 2017.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 10th
to 16th December 2017 inclusive.
See how bad it was eight years ago:
https://www.slideshare.net/amarach/economic-
recovery-index-december-results-2009
The Economic Recovery Index

3. 33
The ERI – moving sideways…
Source: Amárach Research, December 2017
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of
recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index,
which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = at
the peak).
The Recovery Index and the Irish people’s views on the
current and future state of the economy have improved
considerably since its lowest point in December 2010.
Recent forecasts for the Irish economy – and consumer
spending in particular – suggest that sentiment and
spending will both improve in 2018: though the relative
stagnation in 2017 in terms of sentiment should caution
against too optimistic an outlook.
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
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Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Economic Recovery Index
April 2009 – December 2017

4. 44
Economic Recovery Index Scores
Top 10 Bottom 10
Spar 61.3 Virgin Mobile 39.3
Pure pharmacy 56.3 Meteor 39.1
McCabes pharmacy 55.7 48 Go Conquer 38.9
Zurich 54.5 EBS 38.4
Energia 54.2 Sam McCauley 37.5
Other 50.7 Pre pay power 32.9
KBC 50.1 Pinergy 32.8
AON Insure 50.0 AA Ireland 32.7
No Nonsense 50.0 Local Independent 26.5
One Direct 50.0 Marks & Spencers 13.5
Ireland’s most bullish and least bullish customers
We have measured a high
correlation between our
ERI, consumer confidence
and consumer spending.
It is vital that brands
understand how wider
economic perceptions
affect their customers’
perceptions and spending
intentions.
The table shows the top 10
brands in terms of their
customers’ ERI scores, and
the bottom 10 in December
2017.

5. 77
The ERI – Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in Ireland
is getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a few
signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is getting
better and
showing clear
signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is good
and almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Dec-09 49 31 18 2 0 18.3
Dec-10 65 20 14 1 0 12.0
Dec-11 59 24 15 2 0 15.1
Dec-12 49 28 20 3 0 19.5
Dec-13 24 36 31 8 1 31.2
Dec-14 16 31 38 13 1 37.9
Dec-15 13 30 34 19 4 43.3
Dec-16 15 29 32 21 3 42.2
Nov-17 17 27 29 24 3 41.9
Dec-17 16 26 31 24 3 43.4
The Recovery Index is lower in comparison to the same point in the previous three years, but with a slight pick up
from last month – with the prevailing feeling amongst the nation is again one of stabilisation with a few signs of
improvement.

6. 8
Consumer Impact

7. 99
Over these past eight years we have tracked the highs and lows (and very lows) in terms of the mood of the nation and the impact on consumer spending,
borrowing and saving intentions.
Irish consumers are feeling must less relaxed about spending money this month, perhaps due to Christmas looming and all its associated costs and
optimism falling back slightly too.
Consumer Sentiment
% Agree
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am
optimistic in
spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of
the recession
My main
financial
priority is to
pay off my
debts as
quickly as
possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if
I need to
I always buy
the lowest
price products
or services
I always buy
Irish when I
can
Dec-09 43 45 51 56 17 26 57 29
Dec-10 23 34 41 45 11 23 58 21
Dec-11 22 33 39 43 14 27 56 22
Dec-12 26 32 39 43 15 22 54 22
Dec-13 37 40 49 43 22 26 55 26 54 53
Dec-14 40 42 52 43 26 23 55 23 47 50
Dec-15 43 43 51 45 30 25 52 26 54 48
Dec-16 35 46 54 46 36 34 50 35 53 53
Nov-17 37 46 52 43 34 32 59 37 52 58
Dec-17 39 49 55 42 35 33 58 39 54 59

8. 12
Mood of the Nation

9. 1313
The Mood of the Nation
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2017
When we started measuring and reporting the
Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be more than just
another ‘confidence index’.
We therefore set out to measure the full spectrum of
emotions experienced by Irish consumers – positive as well as
negative – in order to provide a unique insight into the real
‘mood’ of the nation.
Emotions drive buying, saving and investment decisions… and
ultimately drive the wider economy: therefore understanding
emotions gives us insight into the drivers of short run
dynamics in terms of consumer markets and even growth
prospects.
Amárach’s work combining emotional insights with
advertising effectiveness and policy adoption studies has
proven the power of emotional insights to predict future
outcomes.

10. 1414
The Mood of the Nation: % Experienced a Lot Yesterday – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2017 (Boredom and loneliness added in Jan and Dec 14)
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70 Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
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Jan-10
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Jan-14
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Apr-17
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Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry Anxiety

11. 1515
The Mood of the Nation: % Experienced a Lot Yesterday – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2017 (Boredom and loneliness added in Jan and Dec 14)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30 May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
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Jan-14
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Dec-17
Sadness Pain Anger Boredom Loneliness

12. 16
Amárach Outlook

13. 1717
With Christmas fast approaching, the scene looks
set for a buoyant end to 2017.
The Economic Recovery Index will continue to
shed light on consumer trends in Ireland and guide
readers to the near term outlook going into 2018.
A Happy Christmas and Peaceful New Year to all
our readers and clients.
Outlook – Christmas on the Horizon…

14. 1818
We survey 1,000 adults every month to create the Economic
Recovery Index.
We also track dozens of data series relating to customer
experience, spending levels, and switching intentions also as
part of the same survey
You can view the full list (as well as a free dashboard with our
latest data and forecasts) here:
Try out the free version for a one week trial period.
http://getPlanR.com/
Get PlanR and get Planning

15. 1919
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
Tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/