Amárach Economic Recovery Index September 2013

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Our monthly look at the mood of the Irish nation - from the economy to shopping to emotional wellbeing.

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Amárach Economic Recovery Index September 2013

  1. 1. 1Economic Recovery Index Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing September 2013 (including analysis by main supermarket; newspaper; TV service) © Amárach Research
  2. 2. 2Economic Recovery Index Finally? Things are improving – our Economic Recovery Index is back to levels last seen four years ago. There appears to be gradual alignment between what people feel about the economy and about their personal circumstances – with an emphasis on gradual. Nevertheless, it bodes well (or better anyway) for the rest of 2013 in general, and for consumer spending in particular. Watch out for ‘buying Irish’ as one winner from recovery – more later. We still have Budget 2014 to navigate next month, but assuming no setbacks then consumer words will soon become consumer actions…
  3. 3. 3Economic Recovery Index The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out four years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to September 2013. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 10th to 22nd September 2013 inclusive. We have now added historical tables to the report following requests from a number of readers.
  4. 4. 4Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). Our Index rose further to 25.7 in September 2013, the highest level in over four years: The Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, September 2013 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Apr'09 Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept
  5. 5. 5Economic Recovery Index A Matter of Measurement Aug ’13: 38% Sept ’13: 35% Aug ’13: 33% Sept ’13: 31% Aug ’13: 26% Sept ’13: 30% Aug ’13: 3% Sept ’13: 4% Aug ’13: 0% Sept ’13: 0% Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) The percentage thinking things are getting worse is back to the levels seen three years ago:
  6. 6. 6Economic Recovery Index ERI Summary Tables I Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? % choosing each statement: % The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse The economic situation is bad but has stabilized The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered Economic Recovery Index Sep-09 50 28 21 1 0 18.4 Sep-10 45 32 21 2 0 19.2 Sep-11 48 30 21 1 0 19.0 Sep-12 46 28 23 2 1 20.8 Aug-13 38 33 26 3 0 23.7 Sep-13 35 31 30 4 0 25.7
  7. 7. 7Economic Recovery Index ERI Summary Tables II % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me Sep-09 46 48 62 60 Sep-10 31 41 46 53 Sep-11 26 38 47 49 Sep-12 24 35 46 42 Aug-13 32 38 44 43 Sep-13 28 38 45 46
  8. 8. 8Economic Recovery Index ERI Summary Tables III % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession My main financial priority is to pay off my debts as quickly as possible I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I need to Sep-09 18 Sep-10 18 24 56 27 Sep-11 14 23 59 23 Sep-12 13 26 56 24 Aug-13 18 25 55 25 Sep-13 19 26 57 25
  9. 9. 9Economic Recovery Index Feeling Sheltered I % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than me” Source: Amárach Research, September 2013 September 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 524 Strongly Agree 19% 19% 19% 22% 16% 13% 11% 27% 23% 21% 16% Slightly Agree 27% 27% 28% 33% 26% 25% 23% 29% 26% 31% 24% Neither/Nor 16% 18% 15% 14% 20% 16% 18% 14% 17% 16% 17% Slightly Disagree 20% 21% 19% 19% 21% 25% 21% 16% 21% 20% 21% Strongly Disagree 16% 14% 17% 10% 13% 19% 27% 14% 10% 12% 20%
  10. 10. 10Economic Recovery Index Feeling Sheltered II % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by grocery/newspapers/TV service): “Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than me” Source: Amárach Research, September 2013 September 2013 TOTAL Tesco Super Valu Aldi Lidl Irish Times Irish Indo Irish Daily Mail Irish Exam iner Sky UPC Weighted Sample 1001 339 96 211 133 193 227 71 57 438 238 Strongly Agree 19% 19% 15% 17% 17% 24% 21% 16% 20% 16% 26% Slightly Agree 27% 29% 34% 19% 26% 32% 23% 28% 36% 29% 25% Neither/Nor 16% 13% 19% 20% 18% 14% 17% 19% 17% 15% 16% Slightly Disagree 20% 17% 15% 28% 27% 17% 24% 18% 18% 21% 17% Strongly Disagree 16% 19% 15% 15% 11% 12% 14% 20% 9% 17% 14%
  11. 11. 11Economic Recovery Index Buy Irish I % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I always buy Irish when I can” Source: Amárach Research, September 2013 September 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 524 Strongly Agree 23% 21% 25% 15% 16% 16% 25% 38% 21% 23% 23% Slightly Agree 31% 33% 30% 30% 34% 34% 31% 28% 32% 33% 30% Neither/Nor 23% 23% 23% 27% 29% 25% 18% 16% 24% 25% 21% Slightly Disagree 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 17% 10% 12% 14% 13% 13% Strongly Disagree 7% 7% 6% 10% 5% 6% 12% 4% 5% 4% 9%
  12. 12. 12Economic Recovery Index Buy Irish II % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by grocery/newspapers/TV service): “I always buy Irish when I can” Source: Amárach Research, September 2013 September 2013 TOTAL Tesco Super Valu Aldi Lidl Irish Times Irish Indo Irish Daily Mail Irish Exam iner Sky UPC Weighted Sample 1001 339 96 211 133 193 227 71 57 438 238 Strongly Agree 18% 38% 21% 19% 30% 29% 29% 33% 22% 25% 18% Slightly Agree 33% 28% 34% 27% 36% 29% 35% 31% 34% 32% 33% Neither/Nor 26% 17% 20% 27% 21% 19% 20% 20% 21% 24% 26% Slightly Disagree 13% 7% 13% 16% 9% 17% 12% 5% 12% 13% 13% Strongly Disagree 6% 3% 8% 9% 3% 3% 1% 7% 8% 4% 6%
  13. 13. 13Economic Recovery Index The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to September 2013 Source: Amárach Research, September 2013 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Apr'09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
  14. 14. 14Economic Recovery Index The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to September 2013 Source: Amárach Research, September 2013 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Apr'09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
  15. 15. 15Economic Recovery Index Emotions Summary Table Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: % Enjoyment Happ- iness Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger Sep-09 60 53 48 39 31 18 22 19 Sep-10 56 53 46 42 31 17 24 20 Sep-11 54 51 44 37 28 16 18 16 Sep-12 51 51 42 41 29 17 22 14 Aug-13 51 49 44 42 33 22 25 19 Sep-13 56 51 44 40 35 20 23 16
  16. 16. 16Economic Recovery Index Changing Moods I Source: Amárach Research, September 2013 September 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 524 Enjoyment 56% 56% 55% 66% 42% 52% 53% 64% 60% 59% 52% Happiness 51% 46% 55% 65% 46% 49% 45% 49% 50% 53% 49% Stress 44% 45% 43% 43% 52% 57% 52% 26% 43% 44% 44% Worry 40% 38% 43% 40% 44% 47% 46% 30% 38% 37% 44% Anxiety 35% 37% 34% 34% 38% 38% 44% 27% 35% 35% 36% Boredom 27% 29% 25% 45% 31% 24% 22% 17% 28% 29% 26% Physical Pain 23% 22% 25% 20% 20% 22% 20% 32% 19% 22% 24% Sadness 20% 18% 23% 28% 20% 23% 19% 15% 21% 22% 19% Anger 16% 19% 13% 21% 17% 22% 16% 9% 18% 14% 18% Fear 13% 12% 13% 14% 13% 19% 14% 6% 9% 13% 12% Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: September 2013
  17. 17. 17Economic Recovery Index Changing Moods II Source: Amárach Research, September 2013 September 2013 TOTAL Tesco Super Valu Aldi Lidl Irish Times Irish Indo Irish Daily Mail Irish Exam iner Sky UPC Weighted Sample 1001 339 96 211 133 193 227 71 57 438 238 Enjoyment 59% 59% 50% 45% 58% 57% 68% 56% 57% 58% 59% Happiness 52% 51% 49% 46% 53% 45% 57% 63% 53% 50% 52% Stress 42% 39% 53% 50% 43% 42% 36% 39% 44% 44% 42% Worry 39% 40% 47% 42% 35% 41% 43% 43% 41% 40% 39% Anxiety 38% 32% 35% 34% 41% 35% 38% 31% 36% 39% 38% Boredom 28% 34% 27% 26% 24% 23% 30% 22% 27% 26% 28% Physical Pain 21% 24% 29% 25% 25% 22% 24% 23% 24% 25% 21% Sadness 21% 23% 18% 21% 21% 19% 25% 20% 17% 21% 21% Anger 16% 11% 19% 17% 17% 16% 17% 18% 15% 15% 16% Fear 12% 13% 17% 11% 14% 10% 20% 23% 13% 8% 12% Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: September 2013 (by main supermarket/daily paper/TV service)
  18. 18. Drivers & Drinking we discover the right answers to our clients’ important questions Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/
  19. 19. Drivers & Drinking About Amárach Amárach Research is an independent market research agency, providing a full range of research services to our Irish and international clients. Amárach specialises in turning information into insight; and insight into foresight. Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors and executives manage online, face-to-face and cati surveys (through our call centre); as well as qualitative research including focus groups, in- depths and ethnographic studies. We also delivers a world class field-only service to universities and international agencies. Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneered innovative research techniques and reported on Irish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the 1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understanding current Irish consumer and business trends, and shares numerous, free reports and presentations via our blog and slideshare sites, linked via our main website: www.amarach.com
  20. 20. Trends Report Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to bounce forward to success and to explore how we can help you succeed through world class market research. e. info@amarach.com w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

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