Our latest look at the mood of the Irish nation in the run up to Christmas 2017

1. 1
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
November 2017

2. 22
We have been reporting our monthly Economic
Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out eight years ago to assess the psychological
impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional
progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic
progress’.
This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index
results from April 2009 to November 2017.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 14th
to 19th November 2017 inclusive.
See how bad it was eight years ago:
https://www.slideshare.net/amarach/economic-
recovery-index-november-results-2009
The Economic Recovery Index

3. 33
The ERI – moving sideways…
Source: Amárach Research, November 2017
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we
have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0
to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = at the peak).
The Recovery Index and the Irish people’s views on the current
and future state of the economy have improved considerably
since its lowest point in November 2010.
However; over the previous 12 months, consumer confidence in
the economy has flatlined – this somewhat jars with the
macroeconomic performance over the same time period, with
GDP +5.8% and numbers in work increasing by +2.4%. It seems
economic growth, does not feed into consumers confidence
about the economy.
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Economic Recovery Index
April 2009 – November 2017

4. 66
The ERI – Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in Ireland
is getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a few
signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is getting
better and
showing clear
signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is good
and almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Nov-09 51 27 21 1 0 17.8
Nov-10 80 12 6 1 1 7.3
Nov-11 57 24 17 2 0 16.3
Nov-12 47 30 20 3 0 19.6
Nov-13 26 36 32 5 0 29.6
Nov-14 17 29 37 16 2 38.9
Nov-15 11 30 35 21 3 43.7
Nov-16 16 30 33 18 3 42.0
Oct-17 16 30 29 21 4 41.5
Nov-17 17 27 29 24 3 41.9
The Recovery Index is lower in comparison to the same point in the previous three years, but with a slight pick up
from last month – with the prevailing feeling amongst the nation is again one of stabilisation with a few signs of
improvement.

5. 7
Consumer Impact

6. 88
Over these past eight years we have tracked the highs and lows (and very lows) in terms of the mood of the nation and the impact on consumer spending,
borrowing and saving intentions.
Irish consumers are feeling must less relaxed about spending money this month, perhaps due to Christmas looming and all its associated costs and
optimism falling back slightly too.
Consumer Sentiment
% Agree
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am
optimistic in
spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of
the recession
My main
financial
priority is to
pay off my
debts as
quickly as
possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if
I need to
I always buy
the lowest
price products
or services
I always buy
Irish when I
can
Nov-09 41 45 51 52 16 27 62 28
Nov-10 18 32 33 45 11 24 50 20
Nov-11 23 34 42 45 15 26 55 23
Nov-12 27 34 44 43 16 25 53 22
Nov-13 36 42 49 44 22 24 54 26 56 51
Nov-14 40 38 52 39 26 24 54 28 58 52
Nov-15 43 47 56 45 31 27 54 27 51 53
Nov-16 36 46 55 43 33 28 58 33 54 63
Oct-17 35 48 51 41 31 32 56 36 53 57
Nov-17 37 46 52 43 34 32 59 37 52 58

7. 99
Although the overall
economic outlook may have
stalled, consumers have
shown some resilience (and
recovery) in spending
intentions.
In parallel, sensitivity to
price as an influence on
spending decisions has
weakened somewhat in
recent years, though
remains important.
Less Price Focused?
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
40
45
50
55
60
65
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Spending More, Less About Price
April 2013 - November 2017
(LHS) I always buy the lowest price products or services: % Agree
(RHS) I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago: % Agree

8. 11
Mood of the Nation

9. 1212
The Mood of the Nation
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2017
When we started measuring and reporting the
Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be more than just
another ‘confidence index’.
We therefore set out to measure the full spectrum of
emotions experienced by Irish consumers – positive as well as
negative – in order to provide a unique insight into the real
‘mood’ of the nation.
Emotions drive buying, saving and investment decisions… and
ultimately drive the wider economy: therefore understanding
emotions gives us insight into the drivers of short run
dynamics in terms of consumer markets and even growth
prospects.
Amárach’s work combining emotional insights with
advertising effectiveness and policy adoption studies has
proven the power of emotional insights to predict future
outcomes.

10. 1313
The Mood of the Nation: % Experienced a Lot Yesterday – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2017 (Boredom and loneliness added in Jan and Dec 14)
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70 Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry Anxiety

11. 1414
The Mood of the Nation: % Experienced a Lot Yesterday – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2017 (Boredom and loneliness added in Jan and Dec 14)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30 Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
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Dec-15
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Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Sadness Pain Anger Boredom Loneliness

12. 15
Amárach Outlook

13. 1616
With Christmas fast approaching, the scene looks
set for a buoyant end to 2017.
The Economic Recovery Index will continue to
shed light on consumer trends in Ireland and guide
readers to the near term outlook going into 2018.
Outlook – Christmas on the Horizon…

14. 1717
We survey 1,000 adults every month to create the Economic
Recovery Index.
We also track dozens of data series relating to customer
experience, spending levels, and switching intentions also as
part of the same survey
You can view the full list (as well as a free dashboard with our
latest data and forecasts) here:
Try out the free version for a one week trial period.
http://getPlanR.com/
Get PlanR and get Planning

15. 1818
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t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
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