The latest Economic Recovery Index shows the state of Irish consumers post-Brexit - bottom line: they're unfazed by it.

1. 1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
July 2016: The Post-Brexit Edition

2. 2Economic Recovery Index
After Brexit
It’s over seven years since we started
tracking the Economic Recovery Index and
the good news is that we appear to be
seeing some recovery in our index!
The decision last month by UK voters to
leave the European Union has reverberated
politically and economically ever since – so
our July poll captures the mood of the Irish
consumer post-Brexit.
The good news is that the Irish appear to be
taking Brexit in their stride, with little
evidence of any short-term consequences
for sentiment and behaviour, though it might
be too early to tell yet…

3. 3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out over six years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009
to July 2016.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 12th to 20th July 2016 inclusive.
See how (bad) it was seven years ago:
http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/the-economic-recovery-index-july-results-2009

4. Economic Recovery Index

5. 5Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
Our ERI fell back slightly in July, but is still close to its peak pre-Brexit:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, July 2016
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Apr'09
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'10
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'11
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'12
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'13
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'14
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'15
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'16
Mar
May
July
Despite the shock of Brexit, Irish sentiment about the economy is relatively unchanged

6. 6Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Jul-09 58 25 16 1 0 15.0
Jul-10 32 34 31 3 0 26.0
Jul-11 47 28 22 3 0 20.3
Jul-12 42 31 23 3 1 22.5
Jul-13 41 30 25 4 0 23.3
Jul-14 18 36 35 10 0 34.7
Jul-15 14 30 37 18 1 40.1
Jun-16 13 27 35 22 3 44.5
Jul-16 13 30 32 22 3 43.1
Our ERI in July 2016 is nearly 3 times its level in July 2009

7. 7Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index & Consumer Confidence
There is a strong correlation between our Economic Recovery Index and the
ESRI’s Consumer Sentiment Indicator, April 2009 to May 2016:

8. Consumer Impact

9. 9Economic Recovery Index
Recession, Resilience & Recovery
We started calling our Index the ‘Recovery
Index’ back in April 2009 as we wanted to
emphasise the positive and didn’t think the
recession would last so long!
Over these past seven years we have tracked
the highs and lows (and some very lows) in
terms of the mood of the nation and the
impact on consumer spending, borrowing and
saving intentions.
We’ve also seen remarkable resilience on the
part of the Irish people when it comes to
‘getting on’ with their lives, despite macro-
economic uncertainties.
In this section we look at some of the key
indicators when it comes to consumer
spending and saving intentions.

10. 10Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the worst
of the recession
in 12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to make
it through the
recession
I am optimistic in
spite of the
current economic
situation
Right now it seems
like the recession is
affecting other
people more than it
is affecting me
Jul-09 42 47 58 60
Jul-10 42 47 55 55
Jul-11 26 39 48 49
Jul-12 27 38 45 43
Jul-13 27 39 47 45
Jul-14 37 41 48 44
Jul-15 40 41 51 44
Jun-16 42 49 55 44
Jul-16 37 43 50 44
Feeling ‘financially comfortable’ has fallen back to the same level as in April

11. 11Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more relaxed
about spending
money than I was a
few months ago
I am saving a lot
more than before
because of the
recession
My main financial
priority is to pay off
my debts as quickly
as possible
I would be happy
to borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Jul-09 14
Jul-10 20 27 62 27
Jul-11 17 26 59 26
Jul-12 18 25 56 25
Jul-13 19 25 56 23
Jul-14 23 24 54 23
Jul-15 28 24 52 27
Jun-16 33 28 56 30
Jul-16 31 28 55 29
Spending sentiment has remained resilient despite Brexit

12. 12Economic Recovery Index
Positive Spending Trend
Spending sentiment is still up on 3-4 months ago

13. Mood of the Nation

14. 14Economic Recovery Index
The Real Mood of the Nation
When we started measuring and reporting the
Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be
more than just another ‘confidence index’.
We therefore set out to measure the full
spectrum of emotions experienced by Irish
consumers – positive as well as negative ones
– in order to provide a unique insight into the
real ‘mood’ of the nation.
We have seen some interesting trends as a
result, including a widening gap between
positive and negative emotions – though both
are trending downwards over time.
The following charts show the trends to July
2016.

15. 15Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2016
Source: Amárach Research, July 2016
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'16
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

16. 16Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2016
Source: Amárach Research, July 2016
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'16
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

17. Amárach Outlook

18. 18Economic Recovery Index
Unfazed by Brexit
In our first Post-Brexit Economic Recovery
Index we have found little evidence of a
Brexit shock to Irish consumer sentiment,
either in terms of its emotional impact or its
behavioural impact.
We’ll keep tracking its progress into 2016 –
and we’ll keep you posted about Ireland’s
consumer needs.
We hope you find this edition of the
Economic Recovery Index helpful and
please do get in contact if you want to
discuss how it can be applied to your brand
planning requirements in 2016 and beyond.
For more on the ERI (including 7 years worth of data) see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

19. 19Economic Recovery Index
PlanR Database
We survey 1,000 adults every month to create the Economic Recovery Index.
We also track dozens of data series relating to customer experience, spending
levels, and switching intentions also as part of the same survey
You can view the full list (as well as
a free dashboard) here:
Contact us for subscription details
and information about special offers
http://getplanr.com/planr-data

20. Trends Report
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/