Our monthly look at the needs, attitudes and aspirations of Irish consumers, with a special focus on Irish supermarkets.

1. 1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
November 2015
Focus on: Supermarkets
© Amárach Research

2. 2Economic Recovery Index
Christmas Cheer
Our Economic Recovery Index bottomed out
at its lowest point exactly five years ago in
November 2010, when the Troika came calling
to Ireland.
Five years on and the contrast could not be
more stark for all of the sentiment and
shopping measures that we have been
tracking since April 2009.
This month we’ve focused on the attitudes and
intentions of customers of Ireland’s Main
Supermarkets.
In the run up to Christmas 2015 it certainly
looks like gloom has given way to – if not
boom – then at least to a quantitatively and
qualitatively better outlook than in the dark
days of Winter 2010.

3. 3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out over six years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009
to November 2015.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 19th to 26th November 2015 inclusive.
See how bad it was five years ago:
http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amarach-recovery-indicator-november-2010

4. Economic Recovery Index

5. 5Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The ERI continued its surge in November, reaching another record high level:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, November 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Apr'09
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'10
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'11
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'12
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'13
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'14
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'15
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
the ERI has stayed above the 40 level for five months in a row…

6. 6Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Nov-09 51 27 21 1 0 17.8
Nov-10 80 12 6 1 1 7.3
Nov-11 57 24 17 2 0 16.3
Nov-12 47 30 20 3 0 19.6
Nov-13 26 36 32 5 0 29.6
Nov-14 17 29 37 16 2 38.9
Oct-15 11 29 35 22 3 43.9
Nov-15 11 30 35 21 3 43.7
a majority of consumers see clear signs of improvement

7. 7Economic Recovery Index
Economic Outlook
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement by Main Supermarket:
Source: Amárach Research, November 2015
November 2015 TOTAL Tesco Dunnes Supervalu Aldi Lidl
1000 298 160 103 233 169
The economic situation in Ireland
is getting worse
11% 8% 10% 13% 14% 8%
The economic situation is bad but
has stabilized
30% 30% 29% 27% 30% 29%
The economic situation is bad but
showing a few signs of
improvement
35% 31% 32% 33% 33% 42%
The economic situation is getting
better and showing clear signs of
improvement
21% 26% 23% 18% 17% 16%
The economic situation is good
and almost fully recovered from the
recession
3% 3% 4% 5% 1% 1%
ERI Score 43.7 46.5 45.1 43.0 39.5 42.6

8. Consumer Impact

9. 9Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am optimistic
in spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
Nov-09 41 45 51 52
Nov-10 18 32 33 45
Nov-11 23 34 42 45
Nov-12 27 34 44 43
Nov-13 36 42 49 44
Nov-14 40 38 52 39
Oct-15 42 46 54 45
Nov-15 43 47 56 45
positive sentiment is rising, though improvement is gradual…

10. 10Economic Recovery Index
Spending Trending
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by Main Supermarket):
“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”
Source: Amárach Research, November 2015
November 2015 TOTAL Tesco Dunnes Supervalu Aldi Lidl
1000 298 160 103 233 169
Strongly Agree 10% 10% 10% 6% 11% 10%
Slightly Agree 21% 25% 22% 22% 16% 23%
Neither/Nor 23% 22% 24% 31% 23% 20%
Slightly Disagree 22% 20% 20% 21% 26% 25%
Strongly Disagree 20% 20% 19% 17% 21% 19%

11. 11Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of the
recession
My main
financial priority
is to pay off my
debts as quickly
as possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Nov-09 16 27 62 28
Nov-10 11 24 50 20
Nov-11 15 26 55 23
Nov-12 16 25 53 22
Nov-13 22 24 54 26
Nov-14 26 24 54 28
Oct-15 33 27 51 28
Nov-15 31 27 54 27
…spending sentiment has remained at a positive level in recent months…

12. 12Economic Recovery Index
Driving Spending
Source: Amárach Research, November 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
As Economic Outlook Improves, Spending Improves As Well
Economic Recovery Index (LHS) I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago: % agree (RHS)

13. 13Economic Recovery Index
Price Driven
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by Main Supermarket):
“I always buy the lowest price products or services”
Source: Amárach Research, November 2015
November 2015 TOTAL Tesco Dunnes Supervalu Aldi Lidl
1000 298 160 103 233 169
Strongly Agree 20% 23% 14% 8% 25% 21%
Slightly Agree 31% 33% 26% 34% 31% 27%
Neither/Nor 23% 21% 27% 25% 20% 27%
Slightly Disagree 16% 13% 22% 22% 13% 16%
Strongly Disagree 6% 5% 7% 10% 4% 4%

14. 14Economic Recovery Index
Buying Irish
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by Main Supermarket):
“I always buy Irish when I can”
Source: Amárach Research, November 2015
November 2015 TOTAL Tesco Dunnes Supervalu Aldi Lidl
1000 298 160 103 233 169
Strongly Agree 22% 22% 27% 29% 17% 20%
Slightly Agree 31% 30% 34% 38% 29% 30%
Neither/Nor 24% 26% 20% 19% 28% 22%
Slightly Disagree 11% 10% 10% 5% 13% 12%
Strongly Disagree 5% 7% 3% 3% 6% 7%

15. Mood of the Nation

16. 16Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2015
Source: Amárach Research, November 2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

17. 17Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2015
Source: Amárach Research, November 2015
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

18. 18Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – III
Source: Amárach Research, November 2015
TOTAL Tesco Dunnes Supervalu Aldi Lidl
TOTAL 1000 298 160 103 233 169
Happiness 51% 49% 53% 51% 52% 52%
Enjoyment 52% 50% 51% 48% 52% 58%
Stress 39% 40% 37% 36% 45% 36%
Worry 35% 33% 32% 36% 41% 34%
Anxiety 27% 27% 24% 26% 35% 22%
Boredom 23% 23% 21% 17% 28% 22%
Physical Pain 24% 22% 19% 29% 29% 23%
Sadness 21% 21% 20% 24% 26% 16%
Loneliness 15% 17% 12% 15% 16% 15%
Anger 15% 14% 12% 13% 19% 12%
Fear 9% 9% 9% 8% 12% 7%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % Yes by Main Supermarket

19. Amárach Outlook

20. 20Economic Recovery Index
Momentum
With just one month of 2015 remaining, our
Economic Recovery Index continues to
sustain the momentum we saw at the start of
the summer.
We’ll keep tracking the recovery’s progress
over the rest of the year – and keep you
posted about Ireland’s consumer needs.
We hope you find this edition of the
Economic Recovery Index helpful and
please do get in contact if you want to
discuss how it can be applied to your brand
planning requirements in 2016 and beyond.
For more on the ERI see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

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22. Trends Report
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/