The document summarizes the results of Ireland's Economic Recovery Index from September 2016. It finds that consumer sentiment has stabilized since the "Brexit bounce" and consumers have become slowly less price sensitive. While stress and anger levels are at the lowest point, happiness is trending downward despite the economic recovery. The index itself has changed little since late 2015.

1. 1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
September 2016

2. 2Economic Recovery Index
Autumnal Tones
As summer gives way to autumn our
Economic Recovery Index reflects a less
buoyant mood than prevailed just a few
months ago.
The ‘Brexit Bounce’ we noted previously
hasn’t been sustained as consumers revert
to a more cautious outlook and behavioural
stance, even returning to levels of caution
seen a few years ago.
But consumers are slowly becoming less
price sensitive – as our analysis in this
month’s issue reveals.
We hope you find this month’s edition helpful
as you plan for the rest of 2016.

3. 3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out over six years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009
to September 2016.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 12th to 22nd September 2016 inclusive.
See how bad it was seven years ago:
http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/the-economic-recovery-index-september-results-2009

4. Economic Recovery Index

5. 5Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, September 2016
Our Economic Recovery Index has flattened out, showing little change since late 2015

6. 6Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Sep-09 50 28 21 1 0 18.4
Sep-10 45 32 21 2 0 19.2
Sep-11 48 30 21 1 0 19.0
Sep-12 46 28 23 2 1 20.8
Sep-13 35 31 30 4 0 25.7
Sep-14 15 33 39 13 1 38.1
Sep-15 13 29 33 24 1 43.0
Aug-16 11 28 33 24 4 45.0
Sep-16 15 29 33 20 3 43.3
Our ERI is little improved since this time last year

7. Consumer Impact

8. 8Economic Recovery Index
Recession, Resilience & Recovery
We started calling our Index the ‘Recovery
Index’ back in April 2009 as we wanted to
emphasise the positive and didn’t think the
recession would last so long!
Over these past seven years we have tracked
the highs and lows (and some very lows) in
terms of the mood of the nation and the
impact on consumer spending, borrowing and
saving intentions.
We’ve also seen remarkable resilience on the
part of the Irish people when it comes to
‘getting on’ with their lives, despite macro-
economic uncertainties.
In this section we look at some of the key
indicators when it comes to consumer
spending and saving intentions.

9. 9Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the worst
of the recession
in 12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to make
it through the
recession
I am optimistic in
spite of the
current economic
situation
Right now it seems
like the recession is
affecting other
people more than it
is affecting me
Sep-09 31 41 46 53
Sep-10 26 38 47 49
Sep-11 24 35 46 42
Sep-12 28 38 45 46
Sep-13 45 42 54 44
Sep-14 47 45 57 45
Sep-15 34 43 55 40
Aug-16 33 42 49 39
Sep-16 31 41 46 53
Though people feel less directly affected they also feel less optimistic

10. 10Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more relaxed
about spending
money than I was a
few months ago
I am saving a lot
more than before
because of the
recession
My main financial
priority is to pay off
my debts as quickly
as possible
I would be happy
to borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Sep-09 18
Sep-10 18 24 56 27
Sep-11 14 23 59 23
Sep-12 13 26 56 24
Sep-13 19 26 57 25
Sep-14 26 25 57 28
Sep-15 31 28 54 30
Aug-16 33 30 56 36
Sep-16 33 31 57 35
Debt repayment priorities are back to their levels of three years ago

11. 11Economic Recovery Index
Price Insensitive
There is a slow but steady decline in general price sensitivity

12. Mood of the Nation

13. 13Economic Recovery Index
The Real Mood of the Nation
When we started measuring and reporting the
Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be
more than just another ‘confidence index’.
We therefore set out to measure the full
spectrum of emotions experienced by Irish
consumers – positive as well as negative ones
– in order to provide a unique insight into the
real ‘mood’ of the nation.
Lately some interesting but rather strange
things have emerged – our levels of stress
and anger have fallen to their lowest levels
ever, but our level of happiness is trending
downwards as well, despite the recovery.
The following charts show the trends to
September 2016.

14. 14Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to September 2016
Source: Amárach Research, September 2016
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'16
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

15. 15Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to September 2016
Source: Amárach Research, September 2016
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'16
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

16. Amárach Outlook

17. 17Economic Recovery Index
Unfazed by Brexit
In our third Post-Brexit Economic Recovery
Index and it seems that Irish consumer
sentiment has adjusted to the new realities
across the Irish Sea.
We’ll keep tracking its progress into 2016 –
and we’ll keep you posted about Ireland’s
consumer needs.
We hope you find this edition of the
Economic Recovery Index helpful and
please do get in contact if you want to
discuss how it can be applied to your brand
planning requirements in 2016 and beyond.
For more on the ERI (including over 7 years worth of data) see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

18. 18Economic Recovery Index
PlanR Database
We survey 1,000 adults every month to create the Economic Recovery Index.
We also track dozens of data series relating to customer experience, spending
levels, and switching intentions also as part of the same survey
You can view the full list (as well as
a free dashboard) here:
Contact us for subscription details
and information about special offers
and join more than two dozen other
organisations using their own
customised planning dashboard.
http://getplanr.com/planr-data

19. Trends Report
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/