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Amárach Economic Recovery Index December 2014
The document provides an analysis of Ireland's economic recovery index from December 2014. It finds that while consumer sentiment has improved significantly from the depths of the recession, the mood has remained steady in recent months with the index leveling off at the end of the year. Some positive trends are noted, such as reduced price sensitivity, but also challenges like loneliness among young people. The analysis breaks down responses by demographics and service providers to help businesses plan for 2015. In summary, the report examines Ireland's economic and consumer recovery but finds the mood has stabilized over the last few months of 2014.
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Amárach Economic Recovery Index December 2014
- 1. 1 Economic RecoveryIndex Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing December 2014 Includes additional analyses by: main bank, mobile network, supermarket, electricity provider © Amárach Research
- 2. 2 Economic RecoveryIndex A Mixed Year End Our final edition of the Economic Recovery Index for 2014 finds Irish consumers at something of a crossroads – the mood is a lot more positive than even a year ago, but hasn’t improved much in the past few months. We have added in a more detailed analysis this month showing differences in outlook among customers of the main banks, supermarkets, mobile phone networks and electricity suppliers to help you plan for 2015. We’re seeing some positive trends – reduced price sensitivity, for example – but also some worrying data, such as the incidence of loneliness, especially among under 25s. But it is Christmas, a season for looking back in gratitude and forward in hope, so do enjoy the break and we’ll see you in 2015.
- 3. 3 Economic RecoveryIndex The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out over five years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to December 2014. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 2nd-10th December 2014 inclusive. See how bad it was four years ago: http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amarach-recovery-indicator-December-2010
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- 5. 5 Economic RecoveryIndex Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). Our Index has remained near its record level: The Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, December 2014 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Apr '09 Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec The ERI has leveled off in the last three months of 2014…
- 6. 6 Economic RecoveryIndex A Matter of Measurement Nov ’14: 17% Dec ’14: 16% Nov ’14: 29% Dec ’14: 31% Nov ’14: 37% Dec ’14: 38% Nov ’14: 16% Dec ’14: 13% Nov ’14: 2% Dec ’14: 1% Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) A solid majority of Irish people continue to say that the economy is improving:
- 7. 7 Economic RecoveryIndex ERI Summary Table Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? % choosing each statement: % The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse The economic situation is bad but has stabilized The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered Economic Recovery Index Dec-09 49 31 18 2 0 18.3 Dec-10 65 20 14 1 0 12.0 Dec-11 59 24 15 2 0 15.1 Dec-12 49 28 20 3 0 19.5 Dec-13 24 36 31 8 1 31.2 Nov-14 17 29 37 16 2 38.9 Dec-14 16 31 38 13 1 37.9 the ERI is over three times higher than in December 2010
- 8. 8 Economic RecoveryIndex Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? (by sex, age, Dublin, class) Source: Amárach Research, December 2014 December 2014 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- 1001 495 506 120 220 200 170 290 279 478 524 The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse 16% 15% 16% 15% 12% 20% 18% 14% 13% 11% 20% The economic situation is bad but has stabilized 30% 31% 29% 31% 30% 30% 32% 29% 29% 30% 30% The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement 36% 33% 39% 31% 36% 33% 34% 41% 34% 40% 33% The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement 13% 15% 10% 12% 13% 14% 9% 14% 18% 15% 11% The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered from the recession 1% 2% * 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% ERI Score 37.9 39.3 36.5 34.1 39.7 36.6 34.3 41.0 41.7 41.5 34.7 Progress Along Recovery Path – I
- 9. 9 Economic RecoveryIndex Progress Along Recovery Path – II Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? (by main bank, mobile network, supermarket, electricity provider) Source: Amárach Research, December 2014 December 2014 TOTAL AIB Bank of Ireland Voda fone Meteor Three Tesco Dunnes Aldi Electric Ireland Airtricity 1001 370 270 332 161 107 320 158 243 524 222 The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse 16% 15% 14% 14% 15% 15% 14% 21% 18% 17% 14% The economic situation is bad but has stabilized 30% 31% 28% 31% 34% 25% 28% 32% 33% 29% 30% The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement 36% 33% 41% 39% 38% 36% 38% 25% 36% 38% 38% The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement 13% 16% 12% 12% 9% 18% 14% 15% 10% 12% 14% The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered from the recession 1% 2% * 1% 1% 0 2% 2% 0 1% 1% ERI Score 37.9 39.4 38.5 39.2 36.9 39.5 40.7 35.7 35.5 38.2 39.7
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- 11. 11 Economic RecoveryIndex Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me Dec-09 43 45 51 56 Dec-10 23 34 41 45 Dec-11 22 33 39 43 Dec-12 26 32 39 43 Dec-13 37 40 49 43 Nov-14 40 38 52 39 Dec-14 40 42 52 43 people remain quite resilient at the end of 2014…
- 12. 12 Economic RecoveryIndex Comfortable Year End – I % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, Dublin, class): “I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession” Source: Amárach Research, December 2014 December 2014 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- 1001 495 506 120 220 200 170 290 279 478 524 Strongly Agree 12% 13% 11% 11% 14% 7% 10% 15% 17% 16% 8% Slightly Agree 30% 27% 33% 35% 27% 25% 18% 41% 29% 35% 26% Neither/Nor 16% 19% 13% 14% 21% 23% 13% 10% 15% 15% 17% Slightly Disagree 21% 20% 23% 21% 20% 22% 26% 20% 22% 20% 23% Strongly Disagree 18% 20% 15% 13% 15% 23% 28% 12% 14% 12% 23%
- 13. 13 Economic RecoveryIndex Comfortable Year End – II % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by main bank etc): “I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession” Source: Amárach Research, December 2014 December 2014 TOTAL AIB Bank of Ireland Voda fone Meteor Three Tesco Dunnes Aldi Electric Ireland Airtricity 1001 370 270 332 161 107 320 158 243 524 222 Strongly Agree 12% 11% 12% 11% 11% 10% 13% 17% 10% 11% 13% Slightly Agree 30% 32% 34% 30% 25% 35% 33% 32% 27% 32% 31% Neither/Nor 16% 18% 12% 17% 18% 18% 16% 13% 19% 15% 19% Slightly Disagree 21% 22% 23% 21% 26% 18% 22% 18% 24% 21% 19% Strongly Disagree 18% 15% 15% 19% 16% 18% 14% 15% 17% 18% 17%
- 14. 14 Economic RecoveryIndex Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession My main financial priority is to pay off my debts as quickly as possible I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I need to Dec-09 17 26 57 29 Dec-10 11 23 58 21 Dec-11 14 27 56 22 Dec-12 15 22 54 22 Dec-13 22 26 55 26 Nov-14 26 24 54 28 Dec-14 26 23 55 23 there has been a sharp fall back in % willing to borrow
- 15. 15 Economic RecoveryIndex More Relaxed – I % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago” Source: Amárach Research, December 2014 December 2014 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 120 220 200 170 290 279 478 524 Strongly Agree 6% 6% 6% 10% 9% 5% 4% 5% 8% 7% 5% Slightly Agree 19% 19% 20% 23% 20% 19% 14% 21% 22% 22% 17% Neither/Nor 22% 22% 21% 14% 22% 24% 19% 23% 22% 23% 21% Slightly Disagree 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 23% 24% 28% 26% 25% 25% Strongly Disagree 26% 26% 25% 21% 22% 28% 37% 22% 20% 21% 29%
- 16. 16 Economic RecoveryIndex More Relaxed – II % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago” Source: Amárach Research, December 2014 December 2014 TOTAL AIB Bank of Ireland Voda fone Meteor Three Tesco Dunnes Aldi Electric Ireland Airtricity Weighted Sample 1001 370 270 332 161 107 320 158 243 524 222 Strongly Agree 6% 8% 5% 6% 7% 5% 6% 6% 8% 6% 7% Slightly Agree 19% 20% 21% 20% 23% 20% 21% 18% 16% 19% 22% Neither/Nor 22% 23% 21% 18% 22% 22% 22% 27% 21% 25% 17% Slightly Disagree 25% 24% 26% 26% 25% 25% 26% 27% 25% 24% 25% Strongly Disagree 26% 23% 26% 27% 22% 27% 23% 21% 29% 25% 27%
- 17. 17 Economic RecoveryIndex Consumer Sentiment Summary Table III % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % I always buy the lowest price products or services I am always on the lookout for opportunities to switch to cheaper suppliers I have more choice than before when it comes to products and services I always buy Irish when I can Apr-13 57 71 52 52 May-13 58 69 54 54 Jun-13 55 70 55 51 Jul-13 56 70 52 53 Aug-13 57 70 53 53 Sep-13 59 72 53 54 Oct-13 58 69 52 51 Nov-13 56 69 55 51 Dec-13 54 68 54 53 Jan-14 59 74 56 54 Feb-14 56 70 57 52 Mar-14 57 68 56 48 Apr-14 56 69 54 50 May-14 60 72 55 51 Jun-14 55 70 58 52 Jul-14 58 72 58 48 Aug-14 56 71 60 51 Sep-14 55 74 61 53 Oct-14 56 68 58 51 Nov-14 58 67 57 52 Dec-14 47 64 57 50
- 18. Mood of theNation
- 19. 19 Economic RecoveryIndex The Mood of the Nation – I Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2014 Source: Amárach Research, December 2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Apr '09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
- 20. 20 Economic RecoveryIndex The Mood of the Nation – II Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2014 Source: Amárach Research, December 2014 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Apr '09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
- 21. 21 Economic RecoveryIndex The Mood of the Nation – III Source: Amárach Research, December 2014 December 2014 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 120 220 200 170 290 279 478 524 Enjoyment 50% 49% 50% 43% 48% 44% 41% 62% 50% 52% 47% Happiness 46% 42% 50% 43% 47% 41% 39% 53% 43% 48% 43% Stress 40% 36% 44% 51% 40% 45% 45% 28% 37% 42% 38% Worry 33% 31% 34% 37% 35% 40% 35% 23% 34% 32% 34% Anxiety 26% 24% 28% 36% 28% 24% 29% 19% 27% 25% 26% Physical Pain 21% 17% 25% 18% 20% 17% 24% 25% 18% 18% 24% Boredom 20% 20% 19% 36% 25% 16% 21% 10% 23% 19% 20% Sadness 19% 17% 22% 28% 19% 19% 17% 18% 18% 20% 19% Loneliness 16% 15% 17% 26% 19% 17% 14% 10% 17% 16% 16% Anger 13% 14% 12% 16% 17% 13% 10% 10% 13% 13% 12% Fear 9% 9% 8% 13% 12% 11% 6% 5% 10% 9% 9% Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes:
- 22. 22 Economic RecoveryIndex The Mood of the Nation – IV Source: Amárach Research, December 2014 December 2014 TOTAL AIB Bank of Ireland Voda fone Meteor Three Tesco Dunnes Aldi Electric Ireland Airtricity Weighted Sample 1001 370 270 332 161 107 320 158 243 524 222 Enjoyment 50% 51% 52% 50% 52% 43% 48% 52% 51% 50% 52% Happiness 46% 47% 43% 50% 46% 43% 44% 42% 49% 46% 48% Stress 40% 36% 41% 41% 39% 46% 38% 42% 42% 40% 36% Worry 33% 28% 40% 36% 34% 36% 33% 31% 30% 34% 29% Anxiety 26% 25% 28% 26% 25% 28% 24% 21% 29% 24% 23% Physical Pain 21% 17% 23% 20% 20% 20% 21% 21% 22% 23% 20% Boredom 20% 21% 19% 18% 24% 29% 20% 20% 22% 18% 18% Sadness 19% 18% 20% 22% 20% 15% 19% 17% 18% 18% 21% Loneliness 16% 16% 18% 17% 18% 19% 20% 14% 15% 16% 13% Anger 13% 11% 15% 15% 13% 14% 13% 12% 14% 12% 14% Fear 9% 7% 10% 11% 9% 8% 8% 9% 9% 7% 13% Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes:
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- 24. 24 Economic RecoveryIndex Ready for Recovery? Our survey at the end of 2014 finds Irish consumers in a ‘fragile’ mood, with many still waiting for the recovery to show up in their bank accounts. Emotional resilience remains strong – though note the worrying level of loneliness among under 25s – and debt concerns prevail. This is the last edition of the Economic Recovery Index for 2014, so we wish all our readers a Happy Christmas and a Peaceful and Prosperous New Year. For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm
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